Rolling Star for the triumph hurdle????

I'm on

only crossing fingers though

The only race of the year for as far as I can remember  that the bookies paid the first four in a non hcp was the Triumph hurdle, bit disappointing that with 17 runners tomorrow they are basically all going first three only

I like Our Connor if it's soft ground. Has hammered Flaxen Flare twice this year who won a handicap the other day.

I'll be honest here, ive gone from really liking far west to our conor, but rolling star is one my best bets tomorrow.

The way he powered up the hill on trials day on ground that was not ideal was very very good. He will improve alot since that run and there's been good vibes from the henderson yard.  Whoever finishes in front of him wins the triumph imo. 

gl

The France Galop website is down at this time of night, but I know Rolling Star ran at least six times on the flat in France, possibly more. The longest trip he ran over I think was 2400 metres (1m 4f). But he never won a race on the flat, despite running in maiden races at some of the most down market French tracks. They were the French equivalent of getting beaten in 0-70 contests at Catterick, Folkestone, Chepstow and Yarmouth.

He'd certainly be the worst flat horse to win the Triumph since Spectroscope, who was flat rated 67, and Rolling Star wasn't in a bad stable either as his trainer sent out a Group 2 winner on Arc weekend. And although he won a hurdle on his debut in France, that was a race restricted to newcomers and the form of the horses he beat is ordinary.

But as we all know, some horses respond very well to eight flights of hurdles and some respond even better to a visit from the vet at 6:30 in the morning. 

I'll post full French flat info in the morning.

Betpack are going 1st 5 in the Triumph.

Just to confirm that Rolling Star had seven runs on the flat in France, three as a 2-y-old. He made his debut at Deauville in August 2011, but after that he travelled far and wide to courses called Cholet, Nort-Sur-Edre, Vire, Durtal, Segres and Senonnes.

He finished second three times, the last two being maidens over 2250 and 2300 metres, in races worth either 8,000 or 11,000 euros total prize money. That sounds generous by our standards, but it's barrel scraping on the French scale. He was tried over 2600m once, but only managed 5th in that race.

His official French flat rating at the time he switched to hurdling was 330, which is approximately 72 on our scale - although the subsequent form of the horss that beat him in those last two races makes that look a harsh mark.

My view is that he might be an out and out stayer that will need 2m+ on the flat and testing conditions over hurdles, which he had for his Cheltenham win - and that he never had the right condition in those French flat runs.

Worth pointing out that Zaynar had a similar background, having had three runs in the provinces on the flat without winning and a final rating of 355. Zarkandar was a much better flat horse, rated 400.

Interesting stuff anorak...thanks alot for posting....is flat form really important in the triumph...after all triumph winners end up being staying hurdlerlers not speedsters

The stats are that only Spectroscope has been officially rated lower than 80 of all the Triumph winners with flat form in UK or Ireland since 1996. Zarkandar would have been rated mid to high 80's here, Zaynar possibly just under 80.

My view would be that the lack of hurdles in the last section of the race - the third last is almost seven furlongs out, mean that flat speed (perhaps flat class is a better term) does come into play.

Clearly the trainers think it matters - just look at the fortunes paid for 12F horses rated 80+ at the Newmarket Sales every October. At a conservative guess, around £1M is spent by the top yards trying to find the winner of a race worth about £70k!

Ok so thanks for putting me off rolling star then...icant have our connor either he has no flat form past 9f....what was dikali rated over the flat in france?

Diakali was rated 390, around mid 80's, and he ran in much better class races with a second at Saint Cloud.

Lac Fontana was the best of the French runners, his rating was 430, with a win over 2200m and a 4th in a Listed race at Lyon over 2400m.

I'm not trying to put you off Rolling Star, just providing the facts requested by the OP!

Awsome stuff anorak...loving ur knowledge of french flat racing...lac fontana could be interesting back on a sound surface then?

So whos ur idea of the winner...im guessing ur going for a french bred/import?

I'm backing Lac Fontana, speculative of course as a maiden over hurdles winning this would be very rare, but on what he did at Kempton, I can see the test of stamina and the long run from two out suiting him. I also like the fact that Nicholls has run him against older horses, something he also did with Celestial Halo and Sanctuaire, who provided happy moments for me in earlier festivals.

I follow the French racing quite closely as I'm sometimes asked to recommend horses for potential buyers, as well of course as knowing their potential when they race over here. I have an account with Equidia so that I can watch their replay service, which covers all the major tracks, but not the ones Rolling Star ran at!

It's markedly more interesting than the bookie led six handicap cards we get midweek in the UK.

Do you know much about the french bumper form Anorak,as ive noticed that Vasco de Ronceray has first time hood on today.
cheers

VdR won a flat race for non thoroughbreds over 2600m at Chateaubriant on his third start in France - these flat races for AQPS bred horses are treated as bumper races by the authorities over here, but they are generally over trips short of 2 miles.

It's also these races in which all the horses have names beginning with the same letter, which acts as an age identifier to French punters. VdR beat the wonderfully named Vladimir Ex Vladimir Hall, which tells us that the 18 character limit doesn't apply to naming these horses and that those meerkat adverts are spreading!

Very hard to assess the form of these races given the lack of collateral form in thoroughbred flat contests, and the horses aren't given a flat handicap mark unless they switch to mainstream racing.

thanks mate

How does the french form of Ma Filleule stack up? Really like the form of her last race and think she could go close today.

She was much better over fences in France than over hurdles, with a 6kgs difference in the ratings. Her hurdle mark was 590, equal to somewhere in the mid 120's here.

All her hurdle runs in France were in races limited to fillies and mares.

Thx very much! Not obviously well in then on her French form but still only young so may have improved since then.

how about the tim vaughan horse..?

One of the most annoying features of this forum is an OP that is happy for someone else to do the research for him, but lacks the good manners or common decency to say thank you.

Just bringing this back up prompted by the reappearance of Lac Fontana tomorrow at Cheltenham in the maiden hurdle. Doubtless he'll be a short price, but worth noting that the last seven winners of this race came through bumpers or points and had never run on the flat - and none of them were 4-y-olds either. Six of those seven were bumper horses making their hurdling debut.

And regarding the original issue on the thread, well we now know that Rolling Star did lack the pace for the top juvenile hurdles, either because he needs very soft ground, or because he'll be better suited by a longer trip - posssibly both. As a result of his defeats, he did get a 10lb drop in his handicap mark, so he starts this season on 139 (coincidentally the same as Punchestowns, although he was a year older). I reckon that might be a tempting mark given his conditions, maybe in the Gerry Fielden if Newbury is soft enough, but more likely in those sponsored 2m 4f handicap hurdles at Ascot early next year.

Vasco Du Ronceray also has a mark of 139 and I have a feeling he might be switched to chasing, but that's just my guess. Given how far they were both beaten by Our Conor, 139 could be viewed as harsh, but the fourth placed finisher at Cheltenham, Diakali, wasn't that far ahead of them and he subsequently won a Grade 1 4-y-old hurdle in France over a slightly longer trip.