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cricnut
11 Mar 13 23:40
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Date Joined: 07 May 03
| Topic/replies: 3,142 | Blogger: cricnut's blog
Alot of the Festival winners tend to have won on their last run. Use Betfair sp and back the lot. You only need 1 or 2 bigger priced ones to go in and you should show a profit, during the week. The ground is going to be soft, which is what it has been for most of the winter. Tomorrows little lot are as follows.

1.30 Champagne Fever, Jeski,  My Tent Or Yours, Pique Sous,  Un Atout (5)

2.05 Majala, Overturn, Simonseg, Tap Night (4)

2.40 Cloudy Too, Loch Ba, Nuts'n Bolts, Monkey Tunkerty (4)

3.20 Hurricane Fly, Rock On Ruby, Zarkander (3)

4.00 Arabella Boy, (1)

4.35 Alasi, Quevega, Sirene Dainey, Une Artiste, Prima Porte (5)

5.10 Kruzhlinen, Shangani, Fourjacks, Howards Legacy, Arthurs Pass (5)

A trend that also happens big time in Handicaps and I expect to happen even more this year, with soft ground, is that horses carrying more than 10st-13lbs, usually don't win. I will keep everyone updated each evening, as to how much this is losing or winning regardless, but remember a 20/25/1 winner will pay anything up to 50/1 and more at betfair sp and an ever bigger priced winner can pay anything.
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Report cricnut March 12, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
4 winners today from those winner last time out selections today, unfortunatly, it meant my worse start to a Cheltenham Festival, for a good few years. Two odds on winners, a short priced Cheltenham Hurdle winner and a 2nd favourite in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, meant a loss of 16.85pts to betfair sp. Never mind perhaps, I might manage to find a bigger winner tomorrow and will do the selections for tomorrow, later this evening.
Report cricnut March 12, 2013 8:48 PM GMT
here we go for day 2, of this project, lets hope its better than Day 1

1.30 Back In Front, Buddy Balero, Emporers Choice, Godsmejudge, Riva D'estruval (5)

2.05 Chatterbox, Port Alexandre, Rule The World, Tanquen Du Seuil, Two Rockers (5)

2.40 Boston Bob, Goulanes, Terminal, Theatrical Star, Unioniste (5)

3.20 Sizing Europe, Sprintre Sacre, Wishful Thinking (3)

4.00 Medinas, Master Of The Sea, Abbey Lane, Mr Watson, Ericht, Buck Magic (6)

4.40 Fatcatinthehat, Pistol, Bordoni, Kalmann, Totalize, Counsil, Saphir Du Rhon, Ptit Zig,
     Habesh (9)

No selections for the bumper as it would need a 16/1 winner just to break even, with 17 out of the 24 runners, having won last time out.
Report theboyfrommatebeleland March 12, 2013 10:08 PM GMT
I used to use this method but my trustee in bankruptcy forbids it
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 8:33 AM GMT
well it won't do that for sure
Report Steamship March 13, 2013 9:40 AM GMT
How about if you had then used must be ridden by R Walsh or grey I think you would have then shown a profit
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 11:48 AM GMT
Did a quick check of this over the last 8 seasons using Raceform database - gave 109 winners from 1196 bets for a loss of 124.6points

the bumper alone gave 8 winners  from  144 bets for a loss of 7.5pts so taking it out leaves 101 winners from 1052 bets and a loss of 117.1points - backing blind clearly not the way to go, you need more rules...
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 11:53 AM GMT
that loss is at regulsr SP but the difference wouldn't be enough to put in profit.
I can give you a list if you want to check them?
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 12:04 PM GMT
Actually could just about be in profit - quick breakdown 10/1 SP was  679 bets 27 winners loss 89 points
betfair SP advantage is greatest over 10/1, if the average advantage was  20% in that section you would have a 24 point profit.  If the advantage was 5% at shorter prices then you'd lose about 12 points at that end, leaving a 12 point profit overall, 1.5pts a year - £15 a year to £10 stakes
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
Yes, but here is the big point, I am not betting at SP, I am betting at Betfair sp, which is totally different, now 2 years ago, there was a 33/1 that paid 69 at betfair sp. I also had a 25/1 winner, with bsp at 48. Now start to work that out. Just in 2 races alone you have got rid of 56 points of your so called loss. Many 10/1 winners and losers for that matter go off at anything from 13 to 20 at BSP.
Remember you are playing at betfair sp, not the official bookmakers sp. I will give you the sort of thing that happens every day on here. A horse opens up at 8/1 and drifts to 16/1, which happens a fair bit. Now all the layers on here, take it that the horse, has got something wrong with it, its not going to try or something like that and keep wanting to lay it. The betfair sp won't be 16/1 it will be something like 28/1 and even on a favourite, if it drifs from say 6/4 to 5/2, will go off at close to 4/1 at bsp. Even a horse backed in from 5/1 to 2/1, will still go off at 3.25 or 9/4 on here.
Its the betfair sp and not the official sp, where it wouldn't take you 5 minutes to work out, that you couldn't make a profit.
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
aha, you need to read all my posts, the method may do well enough at betfair sp at the longer prices, it won't do better than SP at shorter prices by much, I have to say that the method would be struggling without Cue Card in the bumper a few years back and you are leaving the bumper alone...   I'd suggest you follow the market and only bet those that are above a certain price say 11.0, you can get most on early but may have to get on last minute with late drifters.
Report Violencia Fantastico Retardo March 13, 2013 4:12 PM GMT
Medinas had bf sp of 40s...hope you were on it fella
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 4:15 PM GMT
Yes I'm sure, I could, however Medinas, would have been 1 I wouldn't have played, for the fact that, it was carrying 11.10 in a handicap and most handicaps, at the Festival, are won by horses carrying under 11st. However I did back it, it won very well and a very dissapointing 40 at bsp, with the industry sp being 33/1. There are still plenty of races to be run yet, so we'll see, how it all finished up, come Friday evening and yes it does pay better at shorter prices, its just not that much better, but 10/1's can still pay 20/1. It depends how the market moves.
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 5:12 PM GMT
3 winners today and but for a fall at the last, it would have been 4, for a profit of 11.26pts
Overall it is now losing 5.59pts, over the first 2 days of the Festival at BSP
I will be back, with tomorrows winners last time out later this evening.
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
I think you've missed what I was saying, wasn't saying throw horse out because of weight carried etc, was saying any profit will come from BSP / SP differentials at BIGGER PRICES ONLY.  If you kicked out horses
Report thieveslikeus March 13, 2013 5:55 PM GMT
half my post disappeared :(

if you kicked horses out under 11.0 or 12.0 or even 13.0?  (10/1 + 20%?)you'd be removing the bets where BSP has much less advantage.  Leaving the bumper alone would then not be necessary.  Today you missed the bumper winner at over 31 if you'd kicked out shorter prices instead a 19pt profit could have been added.  Three years ago lto winner Cue Card paid 90 on BSP when winning the same race.  Cut out the shorties where BSP is less favourable and you have a goodg system.
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 7:44 PM GMT
Yes I'm always open to suggestions, and that seems a feesable one. Yes missed the bumper winner at 31.94 the betfair sp was, but for a number of years, this race was won, by the more fancied runners, between 2003 and 2009, the winners returned at 2/1f 7/1 7/2 33/1,11/2, 12/1 and 9/2, one of those Libreman, finished 2nd on his last run before winning at 2/1. Only the 33/1 winner would have made money and 12/1 (may have been an even year).
Report cricnut March 13, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
Day 3 - winners last time out.

1.30  Benefficient, Captain Conan, Dynaste, Module, Argocat (5)

2.05  Fair Along, Shutthefrontdoor, Close House, Sam Winner, Ely Brown, Top Of The Range (6)

2.40  Cue Card (1)

3.20  Bog Warrior, Peddlers Cross, Reve De Sivola, Solwhit, So Young, Wonderful Charm (6)

4.00  Shoegazer, Vino Griego, Ballynagour, Cantlow, Kapa De Cerisy (5)

4.40  On Trend, Prince Of Pirates, Richards Sundance, Chatreux, No Secrets (5)

5.15  Arabella Boy (1)

These are my thought on this little lot. I backed Dynaste for this race at 9.8/1 and think it will hose up tomorrow. I also particularly like Peddlers Cross in the World Hurdle, had a very small ante post bet on this for the Gold Cup, back in October at 100/1, but the connections obviously have gone back down the hurdle route. It got slaughtered by Sprinter Sacre at Kempton last season and never jumped well at Bangor this early season. However Peddlers X did not get beat by any more than what Sizing Europe got beat by today.
Report cricnut March 14, 2013 12:44 PM GMT
What will today bring, hopefully some more nice priced winners.
Report cricnut March 14, 2013 6:07 PM GMT
Well just the 3 winners today from the 7 races, however a nice profit of 15.98pts on the day, which means going in to the last day, this is now showing a profit of 10.39pts. I will do tomorrows selections later on this evening
Report cricnut March 14, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
Right more selections tomorrow, but the Hunter Chase winner, can be won by anything really.

1.30 Far West, Hidden Justice, Masters Blazing, Our Conor, Rolling Star, Somemothersdohavem, Stocktons Wing (7)

2.05 Tennis Cap, Ifandbutwhynot, Kians Delight (3)

2.40 Aaim To Prosper, African Gold, At Fishers Cross, Balleycasey, Cloudy Copper, O'faolains Boy, Superior Quality, Virginia Ash, Utopia Des Bardes (9)

3.20 Bobs Worth, Cape Tribulation, Long Run, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs (5)

4.00 Backstage, Benedictus, Cottage Oak, Creevytennant, Dantes Storm, Divine Intervention, Doctor Kingsley, Earth Dream, Galant Nuit, Hoopy, Rodetsky March, Salsify,
Thats Rhythm, What A Laugh (14)

4.35 Gevrey Chamberlain, Salubrious, First Avenue, Ma Filleule, Stopped Out, Art Proffessor, Paint The Clouds (7)

5.10 Benefficient, (unlikely to run) Ulck Du Lin, Rody, Tetlami, Viva Colonia (5)

Well thats the lot for the 2013 Festival, I'm running along at a profit at the moment and although the racing is fantastic tomorrow, anything can happen with this project, but a nice big winner in either the Foxhunters or the Albert Bartlet, would really,  ensure a profit, yet again, despite the usual bigger priced winners this year, the bsp has not been seen to such a big advantage, as in previous years. The best of luck to you all on whatever you are backing tomorrow
Report cricnut March 15, 2013 1:13 PM GMT
The final day, a shame really, we look forward to it all year and then it goes in a flash, lets hope I can finish off, on a winning note.
Report cricnut March 15, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
And that is it, for another year, Fantastic racing as it always is. Today there were 5 winners from 7 bets, for a bsp loss of 9.85pts. Overall this week has shown a massive profit of 0.98pts on winners last time out at this meeting.
Now some people will say, was it all worth it, now there will be people going home with a profit this year, because of the fact, that many of the hot favourites won. However I will still be in a minority, because I have at least shown some sort of profit, however minor and many will have lost
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