Cheltenham Festival
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Picked this one out for the first race, seems a decent price and could run well.
Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?
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Big field and fast pace in his favour, rain probably not so much.
Looking at the stats thread, 17 of the last 17 Supreme runners had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts. I believe Dodging Bullets has a 33% record. But I like him and will probably back him. Price has come in a lot in a recent days and I think he'll give an honest account of himself. All I ask of any horse I back at Cheltenham is that I get a run for my money......I would hope you'll get that with this one. |
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Think that stat relies on the horse only having the current season over hurdles. If you look only at that it's 2/3.
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Ruby rides CF. Ground too soft for DB. Suspect this means that neither wins.
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The rain has helped Champagne fever and Melodic Rendevous both mudlarks just not sure how Bullets will cope.
He was my choice until ground came up so will probably look elsewhere. He will probably romp home now. Are the two leading the field, MTOY and Jetski a lot better than the rivals? |
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Drift on DB makes me laugh,went well enough in the heavy last time out albeit Kempton.Stayed on really well picking up CWF in the process.Open to more age improvement than most of the field.Has Ruby made a booby?
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on ratings MTOY is a stone ahead of the field
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PN said DB wouldn't want rain but as Demanism says he beat two horses who have a chance in the Champion Hurdle last time and got to within 7 lengths or so of Darlan. Loves the course and goes well in a big field. The horse has every chance, imo.
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on ratings MTOY is a stone ahead of the field
And if that was to be believed he'd be shorter than sprinter sacre |
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im only telling you what timeform said...
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MTOY is a shocking price
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Yes Sir, he also said he worked well this morning.
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Puffin Billy must be there...
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I am going for Champagne fever and Melodramic both good value and both like the conditions.
The one i'm most worried about that is niggling me is Un Atout. |
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not crabbing CF Blade82,got a nice cover AP bet on him.How can you see him reversing the Jezki race?
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The value of Jezki doesn't interest me especially given the ground.
He may well win but Champagne will dig deep and if he gets placed will be happy. |
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Agree with Bladesman, I'm on CF, his loss to Jezki was about a length when giving 3 lbs and trying to make all. When he blew up at 2m4f they reported a lung infection. Not sure about ground, he had Jezki in 8th on good in Bumper last year. Big question is Un Atout, looked brilliant against weak opposition, but could be anything; D Russell picked him as his e/w charity bet in Westmanstown preview; expected to be more of a chaser. Would worry about experience of Dodging Bullets, though form is not so consistent.
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How can you see him reversing the Jezki race?
The same way Captain Chris reversed form with Ghizao and the Giant Bolster reversed a beating by Long Run. etc.....if form lines were that simple, it would be easy... |
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Thanks for the lesson DJQ,I was on CF last festival(check the freds if your sad enough) .You don't need to tell me anything about form lines.I was asking for an opinion.Watch the race again is my advice!
I'm not even on Jezki anyway,I'm on DB,with a CF nice price saver. |
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You don't need to tell me anything about form lines.
Why bother asking then? You asked how people saw CF reversing form. I gave an answer. |
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no itsallaracket gave an opinion,you tried to take the p*ss.I believe Long run was not ridden to his strengths by an amateur was why he got beaten by GB .Which is a widely held view,which I also documented on here last year.I certainly don't think ,I know everything,which is why I ask for constructive opinion.
Good luck with your bet |
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I didn't take the pi55. I gave you a straight answer to a straight question.
I know everything,which is why I ask for constructive opinion. No one does. (Know everything) |
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and I gave you a constructive answer which is the Novice form lines are alot less set in stone as experienced horses.
Jezki had run 3 times prior to their meeting so it could be guessed he held some fitness/experience advantage over CF (Despite CF having run at Cork) |
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Lets not go round in circles,I was trying to get an opinion as to whether people had an opinion on whether a different tactic would/could be deployed on CF.His cruising speed is his weapon,If he tries that again,I don't see him not getting picked off.
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Ok. Genuinely no offence intended. Apologies if it came across like that.
I think the Jezki form is strong. The worry is why no run since Xmas. I would have prefered a run at the Hennessy meeting. Maybe trainer felt he had enough runs and a break would be best. The horse should be favourite imho as I feel on form MTOY is hyped. CFs jumping was a massive improvement in the Deloitte to my eyes. Im not entirely convinced this is the strongest renewal either. There are question marks over so many of the front of the market. Anyway best of luck for the festival  |