Is anybody else concerned about...

yep,and the Supreme when the field is whittled down to 10-12.

No cos I'm on Grandouet

you not think he needs a good pace?

there is no way Zarks / CFlame and ROR are going to dawdle - the plan to defeat HF was proven last year..... but I am concerned with the small field.

No because I'm on Hurricane Fly, so the likely soft ground on day 1 and lack of pace means line through Rock on Ruby for starters. Zark will be in bad shape if he has to make it.

Grandouet becomes the danger then. Plenty of form on soft ground in france and can show a turn of foot.


I believe CWF will make it tbh. Think it'll give him his best chance of finishing in the places in this.

ffs - I have just had a butterflies moment - do you realise how close it is now.

BRING IT ON... WOOOOOOOOO   HHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

Yep,so do i mate,after further thought..
Zark will be just off the pace i reckon.
If my current feeling about the ground is proven correct,i expect Zark and HF to battle it out.

I would not be surprised if ROR made the running tbh.

I could see him taking it up at some stage if Fehily's not happy,but dont think he will make it early on.
Main problem ROR has is the grounds looking dodgy for him,as it is with Grandouet imo.

On soft ground making the running is suicide imo for RoR. Give Zark and Fly a tow, two who act best on it and both hugely laden with stamina.

It'd be a mental decision.

Yeah maybe but what do they do?

He was leading to the last flight in the Bula when it was Heavy .. Soft ground is better than that sh1t, no pen, fully fit, they might have to chance it.

When is it we know that FL is a definite for the Ryanair?

Anyone know? Sintonian? Ming?

They hope something does similar to C halo and Overturn last year,then take it up when he feels its right.
Otherwise he has a problem,as do a few others.

There's obviously been no decision yet Bally.

The Fly is waiting to be swotted. Beating Thousand Stars race in race out...zzzz...that thing got murdered in a donkey derby lto ffs!

Still 50/50 Bally,according to trainer and no decision will be made till they have had a good luck at the runners in both races.
Thats the latest on Sporting Life site.

If you believe that you'll believe anything...thinly veiled "As long as SDC is ok it's Ryanair"....Dave on these Preview Nights begging for Ryanair

so why did you ask?

??

Ballydoyle what else can Fly do though tbh? You are mocking horses for what they've beaten now in 2 threads. He's obliterated the field on his last 2 starts. The horse cannot do anymore than that. You can say at the price he's too short, fair enough most would probably agree with that. But the horse has lose like 1 race in nearly 4 years, has a better strike rate than istabraq. If you don't fear him in this on soft then you really have a lot to learn about racing.

bally - re: FL they are waiting on the ground - if its fast (unlikely I'd say with the latest reports) it'll be the GC.

I am thankful that the Ryanair is on the Thursday, it will give them all week to decide.

CV I could argue that HF has only put up a low 160's performance at Cheltenham. I agree he is a danger with you especially in a small field.

NF: Rock On Ruby is in great order and has been trained for this race all year. I am hoping for a massive run from him and I don’t think there is much between the top four. Hope something else makes it, maybe Cinders And Ashes or Countrywide Flame but it won’t be me.

One thing that always baffles me on here and other forums. It's mainly from English people. They slate Thousand Stars, yet on evidence of 4 runs against Oscar Whiskey he is at most 2 lbs inferior.

He was beat 2l in champion hurdle, he beat oscar 2l in world hurdle and he was wtice beaten a short head and nose in 2 aintree hurdles.

Yet the disparity between how people regard both horses is stunning. Thousand Stars has made 300k more prize money than Oscar, he's won as much prize money as Binocular has.

totally agree cv

I think the pace in the Champion Hurdle will come from Countryside Flame, then Rock on Ruby will take it up about 2 out last year. I'm pretty sure it will be a true run race.

Barry, I am on CFlame and I would be upset if they adopted tactics that has already seen him beat by ROR. Up with the pace yes.... and this is the issue, as ROR and Zarks and CF are wanting the same tactics but don't want to lead out.

fascinating.

All plays into Zarks and the Flys hand imo

zarakandar will be off the bit 4 out man. 5-1 is a shocker

Hardy Eustace was off the bridle 4 out too. If memory serves me correct he won 2 champion hurdles

Didnt get beat the year before did he?

Who have you backed in the CH Bally?

Do you mean Zarkandar Bally?

He had breathing op in summer and was having 2nd start of season, after coughing in build up on his 5th ever start as a 5yo. Zarkander had utterly no chance last year.

Complete different horse this year in many many ways.

I've just been pondering the means by which we establish which horse is likely to win a sprint finish in this race? I'm not a believer in our eyes being the best gauge, because I think race finishes can be very deceptive, e.g., a horse going away at the end of a race is a relative thing, and we can't be sure it isn't just caused by those behind slowing down much more quickly.

Occurs to me that the best measure would be sectional times for the last couple of furlongs, so does anyone know anyone who records that sort of info?

I would agree with you CV as re OW and TS if it were a year ago,but this year i think theres no doubt which is the better.
TS looks to have regressed a fair bit to me,and i would argue that OW is a better horse now.

No bet race

Grandouet in January but he ain't winning with this prep.to be honest this race has me stumped.i backed the fly at 11/2 when he was a cert to me.he is two years older now and 9/4 and would bug me that only one horse ever has regained his crown.Best horse yes but I would be disappointed if a 9yo won this as talented as he is.Stats are against Zarkandar as well and i just dont like him to be honest.and I don't think ROR is a multiple winner so erm Grandouet I say

The age stat is totally blown out of the water in modern times, horses race less and are taken care of better these days. Modern training technoques mean so many now get fit at home. Paul Nicholls has shows age means nothing with Kauto/Denman/Tidal Bay.

Walofs

Denman won his GC aged 8, and his last ever win was the Hennessey a month before his tenth birthday. A poster child for Age based stats.

Kauto - the great Kauto - could not win the GC after his ninth year. Won at 7 and 9. Only able to win it back at 9 (rather than win 3 in a row) because Denman was so good in his prime in 2008. Another perfect Age horse for the GC.

Tidal Bay has blown the age stats by winning which Championship races?

Age may be be bad as a profiling tool (it's not), but you gotta tell it straight. These three do not disprove the Age stats for the Champs...

Not that HF is too old (at 9). He will be next year, but not this...
His problem this year is that quicker horses oppose him

Did I mention the festival?

Nope didn't, Kauto won a King George at 11yo and Tidal Bay a Lexus at 11yo. Both very old age for winning those races is it not?

Exactly. Like we see in football with Giggs and Scholes, modern times mean different times.

People bringing up stats from racing in 70s and 80s. Daft and pointless. Racing it totally different sport now.

Ah right good one.  Recent King George 11 year old winners prove the sport has changed.

Desert Orchid was 11 in 1990. Guess what he won.

And remind me why Denman was in your age is not relevant post?

And Stanley Matthews was 50 and still playing at the top in the 1960s FFS.

bigpoppapump with a steinerline to those stats

Just haven't seen anything as daft as a casual reference to Kauto and Denman disproving age stats (on a Chelters thread) when they are both absolute nailed on age animals.

You can't win the champs unless you are in your prime. Even the greats like those two.

The odd animal can win at the margins of its prime (in a weak renewal) but not often. 7-9 for the GC. 6-8 for the CH. simples.

The age stat for the Champion Hurdle - with specific reference to the 9 year old Fly - is busted by three Steeple Chasers (who won no Cheltenham races aged ten or older between em).  And had no Champion Hurdle runs between em.  Lolzers.

Rooster Booster aged 9 in 2003 is the last one to do it past its supposed prime.
Katchit aged 5 in 2008 is another.

They would be relevant evidence wouldn't they?  Not Ryan Giggs.  I mean, he's not even a horse!!!

bigpop

I think you need to ask Ryan's sister in law that one.

Think Jacob could put zarkandar anywhere in this field and he'll win , can't see how grandouet can beat him as he's 3-0 on previous meetings if i'm right , I'm sure PN knows the ability of ROR and give me Nicolls over Fry any festival , The Fly! has beaten thousand stars again by the usual distance in Ireland as well as Unaccompanied and a poor Binocular (on that day!) may improve this day but as a dethroned champion(the fly) beating Peddlers Cross 2 years ago and now 9 will happily take him on, couldn't tell you which binocular will turn up on the day but JP bullish will run his race (danger , possible place bet) again taking a leap of faith Cinders leaves all bad ground form behind and can be competitive and i give the flame a monster chance of grabbing a place as its not uncommon for a bigger price horse to run well and the way he devoured the hill when looking at best 9th in the triumph last year if hes close enough he ll be on the scene at the business end but Zarkandar all the way for me!

The fact that the rain has finally arrived clarifies matters somewhat.

The softer ground will suit Hurricane Fly, bring Zarkandar's stamina into play, and diminish the chances of horses like Rock On Ruby and Grandouet that prefer good ground.

Granted, there is a slight doubt about the pace. But there's always going to be doubts about something, and these championahip races are usually run at a true gallop.

I've come round to fancying Zarkandar quite strongly each-way. He has a solid shot at winning, but on soft ground he's almost certain to make the frame.

The icing on the cake is that PP are doing money-back if the Fly wins, and he has to be the principal danger.

theunrealbandit best to do that kind of timing yourself,Think Turftrax wanted something fitted under the saddle so they could gauge times of horses over each furlong but don't think it ever got worked out,Sorry couldn't be more help.

@gutfeeling - thx for the thought tho.

guess I'm too lazy to watch the vid replays with a stopwatch and was hoping to lure some sectional timing anorak out of the woodwork