Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
05 Mar 13
18:42
Joined:
Date Joined:
26 Jul 12
Has to be Overturn for me,Has won 3 Egg and Spoon races over Fences,Beat Nothing of note,
11/4 to win an Arkle is just ridiculous imo,Add into the equation that he's just too old and he has to be the worst value of the week,Yes he's an admirable horse and as tough as they come but that's not always enough to win a Championship race at the highest level.i think he's a classic example of a punter betting with his heart over his head,Surely that's the only reason he's currently trading around the 11/4 mark.
A place lay for me,
GL.
11/4 to win an Arkle is just ridiculous imo,Add into the equation that he's just too old and he has to be the worst value of the week,Yes he's an admirable horse and as tough as they come but that's not always enough to win a Championship race at the highest level.i think he's a classic example of a punter betting with his heart over his head,Surely that's the only reason he's currently trading around the 11/4 mark.
A place lay for me,
GL.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 27
|
By:
Dynaste. The numerous reasons are listed elsewhere. Cannot win.
|
|
By:
Sir Des Champs.
|
|
By:
My tent or yours.
Any horse at that sort of price in a Supreme novice hurdle just has to be poor value imo. |
|
By:
is simonsigs jump form much better than overturns ?
|
|
By:
the burgers are way too expensive, and sc in gold cup should be triple current odds
|
|
By:
hot dog from the hot dog stand, bout 8 quid and it's most probably made out of horse.
|
|
By:
The Fly @ 9/4
|
|
By:
Thunder - i'm not a fan of that price myself.
|
|
By:
Place lay? Really? Pray tell which two, excepting the cert fav, can finish in front of it? Surely Arvika is the only possible in this line up? Yes, he's beat nothing of note in his 3 novice chases, but nor did he need to have done so given his hurdle form. Proved he could jump well on debut at Sandown.. prep job done.. and not had to endure a hard race doing so. Surely most people's reasonable idea of runner up?
|
|
By:
Perhaps the most consistent horse in training is a place lay?? Wow, would love to know what 2 other horses other than Simonsig are going to finish ahead of him!
|
|
By:
My Tent or Yours. Easily IMO.
|
|
By:
I think Simonsig will pish up, but anybody laying Overturn at 11/4 needs their head checked - Arvika has no chance going left-handed and Captain Conan's heading for the Jewson
|
|
By:
Hurricane Fly & Dynaste are abysmal odds.
I think Overturns odds are about fair, I can see him getting Simonsig out of his comfort zone. Sir Des Champs looks 100% a gold cup horse and is peaking at the right time. I think he's a shoe in for a place and will probably win. My Tent Or Yours - I'm normally the first to oppose a shorty in the Supreme but this one has real substance to his form now and should be unbeatable if he runs to the same mark. Yes he might not run to the same level, but if he does he wins and thats why he's 7/4. |
|
By:
There's no doubting MTOY is way too short for this. Personally, I think Jezki ought to be favourite, and to me MTOY still has to find another 10 lb or so to justify his odds, so it comes down to whether or not we believe he'd still have won the Betfair if needing to find ten more lengths to do so...
|
|
By:
ANOTHER 10 pounds? You reckon he'll have to ran up to 170 to beat Jezki?
Crazy people on here - keeps me afloat I suppose. |
|
By:
Haha wow this thread is providing some humor to say the least. Jezki's small field beatings of the same old typical irish boats is all the proof I need that MTOY or whoever else needs to run to 170
 |
|
By:
SDC Gold Cup.In its most recent run everyone states it outstayed Flemstar yet it jumped the last a lenght up and finished a lenght up.The race before people think it thundered up the run in.The horses it was catching were Flemstar and FL whos trainer thinks didnt stay.What people tend to forget is that SDC was a lenght ahead of Tidal Bay at the last and finished behind !You can only think SDC is a good price if you think Tidal Bay would have been favourite.
|
|
By:
Tidal Bay
 What a shame. |
|
By:
Okay, re MTOY needing to find 10lb more, I guess I'm going to have to 'out' myself as a clock watcher, and I'm really referring to how much quicker I'd have liked him to have won the Betfair Hurdle by. Admittedly, it's not MTOY's fault that "the pace seemed pretty steady for much of the way", but even so it provides ammunition for those questioning the shortness of his price. That said, similar sentiments could have been expressed about Zarkandar the year before and he came 5th in a CH...
|
|
By:
Postiepete.
You're equating the form literally, without considering the ground (!?) and to a lesser extent race fitness. Mullins and any other trainer, for that matter, would have always been keen not to overburden the horse in the build up to the festival. Concerning the ground, it is widely considered that SDC appreciates a sounder surface. |
|
By:
Any horse below 4 is poor value as an ante post bet. You only have to look at the steady stream of non runers to see why. I know we are only 6 days away now, but I will be surprised if all of the current ante post favs run never mind win. We have already seen 3 of the leading fancies out of the World Hurdle since November.
|
|
By:
66/1 that people were telling me was good value Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup. Not after timing if you look back to my comments on that thread you will see i said it was a bad price long before he was out the race.
|
|
By:
But sage you are protected by NRNB now - and no R4 if a main rival comes out
|
|
By:
Very true Roo
But if i put £100 on and get £100 back on a 66-1 i would say that is poor value??? |
|
By:
This was a response to sageform not you robbo
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
good shout, place lay was brave though.
|