Cheltenham Festival
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Pultany Lands Novice Handicap Chase - The Druids Nephew.
This race looks to have been the plan for awhile, his debut s.h defeat to Hadrians Approach is a good bit of form given that horse is now rated 147. He disappointed nto a bit at Kempton, but he cut a leg in the race and also hurt a back muscle so given those excuses we can forgive that run. Then on his latest start he's beaten Grandioso very well, that defeat is Grandioso's only one in his last 4 runs and he is now 145 rated. He also thrashed Tony Star who will now be in the 140's after his run on Sat.
So every way you look at it his form stacks up, he has to be in the 145+ range at least now. Meaning as he runs off 135 he's surely got 10lbs in hand. That's what you want for the nov handicaps, an improver which he is. I took 20s and 16s but he is still huge value at the current 14/1.
Coral Cup - Pendra
His form behind Melodic Rendevouz is very solid, given that horses is 150 rated now and goes for the Supreme. Pendra (rated 139) is a staying chaser in the making and he will improve for this step up in trip, so even though he should be on about 146 for a 4l defeat to MR over 2m he may well improve to be 150+ over this trip. Meaning he has potentially 10lbs in hand here. JP bought him last month which can only be a good sign. AP has ridden him in some work since then and likes the horse, so wants to ride him and as such he will head for Coral Cup and not Martin Pipe. He's 14/1 still and that's a big price given when people see the JP and AP combo and 1112 in the form he'll be bet. So best take the 14s now.
Fred Winter - Bordini
This is a horse where a blunder on his debut and RO when about to hack up has gifted the horse a great handicap mark. Had he not done those two he'd be 3/3 and be handicapped out of the race. But instead he's got a mark of 134. In a nice bit of placement he went off 1/2 at Muss where hacking up (which he did) wouldn't get him too high a mark. So as such he looks a horse who should be 140+ rated based on talent he's showed. Also he's winning form on g2f on the flat so better ground should show improvement. He's still available at 12/1 is still a nice bit of value.
Grand Annual - Rody
140 rated, despite thumping Eastlake and Kapga De Circy 8/9l giving them 2/3lbs. Both of those horses have won all there starts since with Kapga now rated 140. Rody, did this on unsuitable soft ground. He was kept to the sounder surface for most of his career. So he should show improvement for it. Meaning a literal reading of the Kapga form has Rody on a 150 and he may be better. Again a horse who could have 10lbs in hand, it's what you want for these handicaps. 14/1 is still general price and it's very nice bit of value.
Martin Pipe - Edmund Kean
David Pipe had given him 3 runs all last month to get him a handicap mark of 130. It looks a shade too low to get into this race (which is his only festival entry). But he can get a nice 5lb penalty for winning this weekend and that puts him on 135 and a perfect 11-2 weight in this. The trip will be ideal form him and there is no chance he goes off 14/1 if he gets in, given we know David is desperate to win his fathers race. He can go top weight with Gervery Chambertan, then have this young improver in there 10lbs lower. So the fact 14/1 is available nrnb is a risk free gift tbh.
This race looks to have been the plan for awhile, his debut s.h defeat to Hadrians Approach is a good bit of form given that horse is now rated 147. He disappointed nto a bit at Kempton, but he cut a leg in the race and also hurt a back muscle so given those excuses we can forgive that run. Then on his latest start he's beaten Grandioso very well, that defeat is Grandioso's only one in his last 4 runs and he is now 145 rated. He also thrashed Tony Star who will now be in the 140's after his run on Sat.
So every way you look at it his form stacks up, he has to be in the 145+ range at least now. Meaning as he runs off 135 he's surely got 10lbs in hand. That's what you want for the nov handicaps, an improver which he is. I took 20s and 16s but he is still huge value at the current 14/1.
Coral Cup - Pendra
His form behind Melodic Rendevouz is very solid, given that horses is 150 rated now and goes for the Supreme. Pendra (rated 139) is a staying chaser in the making and he will improve for this step up in trip, so even though he should be on about 146 for a 4l defeat to MR over 2m he may well improve to be 150+ over this trip. Meaning he has potentially 10lbs in hand here. JP bought him last month which can only be a good sign. AP has ridden him in some work since then and likes the horse, so wants to ride him and as such he will head for Coral Cup and not Martin Pipe. He's 14/1 still and that's a big price given when people see the JP and AP combo and 1112 in the form he'll be bet. So best take the 14s now.
Fred Winter - Bordini
This is a horse where a blunder on his debut and RO when about to hack up has gifted the horse a great handicap mark. Had he not done those two he'd be 3/3 and be handicapped out of the race. But instead he's got a mark of 134. In a nice bit of placement he went off 1/2 at Muss where hacking up (which he did) wouldn't get him too high a mark. So as such he looks a horse who should be 140+ rated based on talent he's showed. Also he's winning form on g2f on the flat so better ground should show improvement. He's still available at 12/1 is still a nice bit of value.
Grand Annual - Rody
140 rated, despite thumping Eastlake and Kapga De Circy 8/9l giving them 2/3lbs. Both of those horses have won all there starts since with Kapga now rated 140. Rody, did this on unsuitable soft ground. He was kept to the sounder surface for most of his career. So he should show improvement for it. Meaning a literal reading of the Kapga form has Rody on a 150 and he may be better. Again a horse who could have 10lbs in hand, it's what you want for these handicaps. 14/1 is still general price and it's very nice bit of value.
Martin Pipe - Edmund Kean
David Pipe had given him 3 runs all last month to get him a handicap mark of 130. It looks a shade too low to get into this race (which is his only festival entry). But he can get a nice 5lb penalty for winning this weekend and that puts him on 135 and a perfect 11-2 weight in this. The trip will be ideal form him and there is no chance he goes off 14/1 if he gets in, given we know David is desperate to win his fathers race. He can go top weight with Gervery Chambertan, then have this young improver in there 10lbs lower. So the fact 14/1 is available nrnb is a risk free gift tbh.
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Replies: 17
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What is yr record like? I have opposed all of them in my ap book.
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like the look of a few of these cv especially tdn and pendra .good luck with them, will probably back both !
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Cheers Foyles. I've a few other bet in the same races at bigger odds too, The Cockney Mackem 25s, Son of Flicka 33s, Milord 25s, Totalize 16s, Alderwood 14s, Its a Gimme 33s
But the 5 there are the ones I'm keen on based on being potentially well in in my opinion for their races. Other handicap horses are a bit short now than when backed them, like Our Mick, Sam Winner, Super Duty, Court Minstrel. Quantitativeeasing is a horse I'm waiting to back, just need to see the JP runners in the race and if AP takes the ride before going in. I'm happy to give away a few pts value fr that info. Also think Back in Focus in the 4miler is a stupid price at 8/1. He'll be 9/2 fav dotr for sure. |
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I did most of the Fred winter stats last night and bordoni comes out very well. Only thing he misses is a max OR of 133 but on 134 I think we can let that one slide
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I have already backed two of these (The Druids Nephew and Edmund Kean) but I think it is worth pointing out a few negatives. The Druids Nephew wouldn't want the ground any worse than good to soft. Rody's form has been franked but a huge difference between running in a couple of small field races to a 20 runner Grand Annual. Personally, I think it could easily be all too much for him. Bordoni is another who wouldn't want the ground too soft. Guesswork as to how Pendra will adapt to a very competitive handicap hurdle and not 100% certain he will improve for such a step up in trip - at this stage might be a 2m2f horse? Edmund Kean unlikely to run but no loss NRNB.
If anyone can get a couple of strikes in the handicaps they are doing pretty well so good luck. |
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C.V. The cockney mackem is out
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Aye yomper I saw that, it's nrnb so I'm not too worried about it.
differentdrum - on Edmund Kean if he wins on sat he get's into the race with the 5lb penalty |
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Annoyingly pithy reasoning here but there's something about The Druid's Nephew that just looks false...
I can't put my finger on it and the form certainly screams out at you but I have a niggling feeling that he might have been flattered by his best run and can see him flopping at Cheltenham having been backed heavily in the run-up... |
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With you on one.
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Strange that one tom, I'm very keen on Druids Nephew.
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Got The Coral Cup down to a shortlist of six and I'm hoping a few aren't declared to help me choose 'the one' for the day.
Hoping I can beat my personal best in this race which was a sixth in 2008 I think it was! |
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What does everyone make of Grevery's chances in the Martin Pipe?
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Winner is usually high in the handicap, so can't rule him out tbh. I'd say he has a good chance.
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Any Given Day 25/1 pertempts hurdle - Running style does well in this race
Crack Away Jack 33/1 Coral Hurdle One of very few with single entry, was tipped up in racing as e.w bet for stayers hurdle @ 40s yet runs off 149 in coral and is 33s Alderwood 7/1 Grand Annual Carlito Brigante 8/1 Centenary Novice Chase Ignore ALL the above if ground is soft. |
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ignore em all thenk monk
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Given the forecast soft ground so many at the top of the betting are opposeable.
The one horse who will love the soft ground, it can't be too soft for him is Eastlake. We go back to that Warwick race. 1st Rody - top of Grand Annual betting, 140 rated 2nd Eastlake - won next start 3rd Kapga De Cerisy - Won next 2 starts, 140 rated 4th The Chazer - won next start 128 rated 5th Jumps Road - won 2 hurdle races since The form of that race is very strong. Kapga is rated 8lbs higher than Eastlake, the Chazer is 128 rated and was beaten 8l getting 3lbs. The whole race points to Rody and Eastlake being at least 8lbs better than their current marks. Eastlake won his 2 runs either side of that race. One over 2m1f at Ascot in heavy where he "stayed on well" up the hill. Where he beat Rouge Et blanc by 4l giving him a stone, he's now 132 rated also. He also stayed on well in his win at Sandown lto. It all points to this step up in trip being ideal tbh, he may be improve for the step up too. He's no 25/1 shot if as expected he sneaks in off bottom weight on the soft ground he relishes. Eastlake e/w 25/1 added nrnb |
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For the rewards4racing nov h/c chase that is
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