Cheltenham Festival Betting Judo Style 2013

Also I would suggest that Grandouet's optimum runs have come on the back of a couple of races ie Punchestown as a juvenile and the international last season.

Sorry but the idea he wouldn't have beaten Zark on levels without a layoff seems very odd to me.  Roobuck, I considered that but he ran a very high rating last time off a much longer lay-off, was very close to optimum!

Zark just does enough,he aint a flashy type at all,would have won whatever in those conditions imo.So i would not take the distance and weight etc as a given that the result would have been much different.

Fact is all his best form is on decent ground,thats what the formbook says to me anyway,and i imagine to most.

Fair enough, good luck

Yay, me against the crowd that's the way I like it!   Won't labour the point any further as this is judo's thread and only mentioned it here as I'd already the discussed the race when he asked me what I was fancying.

fair enough mate,and going against the crowd makes money at times,its what i try and do.

Be lucky thieves.

and you Budd :)

my first day dealt a bit of a blow with Melodic and Attaglance both non runners but no damage with NRNB so I rely on Colour Squadron in the novices chase and Zarkandar

Advised So far:

Gold Cup:                           Sir Des Champs               5 points win    9/2
Champion Hurdle:                    Zarkandar                    2 points ew     5/1
Supreme Novices:                    Melodic Rendezvous           2 points ew    10/1  non runner
RSA Chase:                          Boston Bob                   5 points ew     6/1
Ryan Air Chase:                     Cue Card                     5 points win    4/1
Triumph Hurdle:                     Rolling Star                 2.5 points ew  5/1
Neptune Novices:                    The New One                  2 points ew     4/1
World Hurdle:                       Smad Place                   1 point ew     20/1
Jewson Nov Chase:                   Aupcharlie                   1 point ew      5/1
Albert Bartlett Nov:                At Fishers Cross             5 points win   5/1
Foxhunters Chase:                   Salsify                      3 points win   3/1
Foxhunters Chase:                   Kirkleigh                    0.5 point ew   20/1
Rewards4Racing Nov:                 Attaglance                   2.5 points ew  10/1 non runner
Rewards4Racing Nov:                 Colour Squadron              1 point ew     9/1
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Chartreux                    1 point ew     25/1 non runner
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Monkerty Tunkerty            0.5 point ew   20/1
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Loch Ba                      0.5 point ew   20/1
NH Chase:                           Merry King                    5 point ew    10/1 non runner

What do you think of Merry King's chances against Loch Ba Judo?

just working on it now

Betting Advice

Merry King 2 point ew JLT chase 12/1 WH and Spoyles

Agree JR, him and Loch Ba against the rest for me, 10st12lbs is max weight for me in this ground and they look the 2.

Hi Judo,

I had a search for last years forum, as a matter of interest and I didn't find anything.  How many points were up last year, do you recall by chance?

Regards,

Daz

I can't remember the totals or the title of the thread but was significant profit made

Good luck with your selections this year, I share a few of your picks.

I wonder if you have any refreshed view of the Champion Bumper, I tried comparing times of races but it was fruitless as many Bumpers are poorly run affairs, if sectional times were available it  might help. Anyway, I was impressed by both Golantilla and Regal encore (visually) but short of getting a stop watch and looking at the videos it is difficult to rate these beasts. I do like this race and I wish it would become more of a champion bumper than it is. I have had a bet on both ante post and have crossed my fingers.

Regards,

Kingchip

I won't be having a bet in the Bumper as I don't have any ratings I can rely on

I'm with you on Zarkander and Mery king tomorrow albeit at worse prices. Lets hope for a good day!

yes cheers GCW, good luck to you too

bigger fish to fry though later in the week

two from Boston Bob, Cue Card, Sir Des Champs and At Fishers Cross will make me happy

My meeting revolves around S Conti if he wins I'll be in profit. Places and it's up to the rest of the races. Unplaced and I'll most likely lose unless spike a couple of handicaps.

The Coral Cup Analysis 2013

I applied these and got a short list which was a bit longer, some disappeared as they were not declared and some went above the weight limit

No conditional Jockeys
less than BHA 147
at least 128 BHA
less than 11 yo
if British trained, less than 10yo
set to carry less than 11st 3lb unless Irish trained
Maximum 5 runs this season
Won a race this season
Won a hurdle at 2 miles 4 furlongs+

OR

placed in graded company and 7 or less yo

not wearing blinkers
pay attention to Irish, mcmanus, o'grady
not a course winner
not a novice in the current season
max 10 runs over hurdles
not a front runner

short list:

Abbey lane  12/1 Boyles and BetVictor
Owega Star 33/1 various
Un Beau Matin 20/1 general, 25/1 Sky


Betting Advice

Back Abbey Lane 1 point ew 12/1
Back Un Beau Matin 1 point ew 20/1
Back Owega Star 0.5 point ew 33/1

Look for 5 places if possible

The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Analysis 2013

I had already made a short list which included the top rated on trends so it makes my job easy! The selection was ZAMDY MAN and he came out top of the trends  too so he is the selection at a value price.

Betting Advice

Back Zamdy Man 2 points ew 20/1 general

Advised So far:

Gold Cup:                           Sir Des Champs               5 points win    9/2
Champion Hurdle:                    Zarkandar                    2 points ew     5/1
Supreme Novices:                    Melodic Rendezvous           2 points ew    10/1  non runner
RSA Chase:                          Boston Bob                   5 points ew     6/1
Ryan Air Chase:                     Cue Card                     5 points win    4/1
Triumph Hurdle:                     Rolling Star                 2.5 points ew  5/1
Neptune Novices:                    The New One                  2 points ew     4/1
World Hurdle:                       Smad Place                   1 point ew     20/1
Jewson Nov Chase:                   Aupcharlie                   1 point ew      5/1
Albert Bartlett Nov:                At Fishers Cross             5 points win   5/1
Foxhunters Chase:                   Salsify                      3 points win   3/1
Foxhunters Chase:                   Kirkleigh                    0.5 point ew   20/1
Rewards4Racing Nov:                 Attaglance                   2.5 points ew  10/1 non runner
Rewards4Racing Nov:                 Colour Squadron              1 point ew     9/1
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Chartreux                    1 point ew     25/1 non runner
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Monkerty Tunkerty            0.5 point ew   20/1
JLT Specialty Hcp:                  Loch Ba                      0.5 point ew   20/1
NH Chase:                           Merry King                    5 point ew    10/1 non runner
Foxhunters:                         Creevytennant                0.5 point ew   25/1
Coral Cup:                          Abbey Lane                   1 point ew     12/1
Coral Cup :                         Un Beau Matin                1 point ew     20/1
Coral Cup:                          Owega Star                   0.5 point ew   33/1 (40 is available)
Fred Winter:                        Zamdy Man                    1 point ew     20/1

missed from list:

Merry King 2 points ew JLT 12/1

The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Analysis 2013

Very strong race for trends. I applied these:

7 to 9 years olds only
won at class 3 level at least
won at 3 miles
120 to 142 BHA
Max 15 runs over hurdles
Minimum 6 runs over hurdles
Carry 11st 2lb or less
Not a course winner
Not blinkered
If Irish, unplaced in the Irish qualifier
Can be a novice
can be ridden by Conditional
Preference to last time winners IF on final short list
Pay respect to McManus runners at all prices
pipe, venetia, jefferson, mullins, o'neill
cheltenham qualifier
top 6 finish if ran in last years race at the festival

and was left with just one qualifier

Jetson +10

with Ely Brown and Hada Men as the next best

Jetson was strongly fancied for this race last year but failed to get in. He then went to Punchestown where he was second of 22 on good ground and since then it looks like everything has revolved around this race

Betting Advice

Back Jetson 2.5 points ew at 14/1 general , 16/1 Spoyles

nb Ely Brown, Hada Men could be considered

Gold Cup Peak Performance Potential Ratings – Final Decs

Now the final decs are in, here are my ratings for the remaining runners. These ratings estimate the maximum rating they might produce on their next start under ideal conditions (the ideal conditions are different for each horse and a matter of judgement):

Sir Des Champs 174
Bobs Worth 168
Long Run 161
Silviniaco Conti 159
Captain Chris 159
Sunnyhillboy 153
Cape Tribulation 152
The Giant Bolster 150
Monbeg Dude, Bog Warrior, Wayward Prince less than 140

We will see how this compares to the final result. I've nailed my colours to the Sir Des Champs mast and really believe he is capable of some smart form

Can't remember if I added this but I have advised

Rival D'Estruval 2 points ew 8/1

well got the winner but gutted about Rival D'Estruval

Yes, that was very bad luck.

unbelievable Rival and Boston Bob both fell

unlucky judo, just cannot help thinking Townend went too early. Whether that had anything to do with his fall obviously is debatable but I do think he'd have been caught up the hill. Naturally that's pure conjecture.

totally conjecture, you only say that as he fell

with a clean fast jump and landing running he would never have been caught

put in an extra stride, ruby should have ridden, and yes he went too soon, could have waited til closer to the last

cost me £££££

LW would have been a very unlucky loser,I reckon he'd have been caught, I was cheering on a nice multiple with BB in mind you.

no point arguing but BB would never have been caught from 2 lengths up, he caught LW from miles back over 2 miles 5, theere's no way LW would have caught him from behind

just put in the extra stride instead of going long

fecking sick

There is no point arguing but best to look at it when tensions aren't quite so high, the last race was totally different, LW was hacking on the inside today but was hemmed in , then clipped heels and then had to be switched right round, and as russell said, still had stacks left, surprisingly too, BB was only a length up at the last, if LW had had an uninterrupted passage up the rail to the line I reckon he'd have been an easy winner.

Anyway, we're still not even half way through this marathon yet so good luck onward.

There is no point arguing but best to look at it when tensions aren't quite so high,

Fair point. As I said, unlucky judo

LW was closing on BB before he fell. If they had both jumped it cleanly i would be amazed if LW wouldn't of still won.

Thursdays Betting Advice

Ryan Air Chase: Cue card 5 points win @ 4/1 already advised, I am going back in again myself!! Probably double the stake
Pertemps Final: Jetson 2.5 points ew  @ 14/1
Byrne Plate: Ballynagour 5 point win @ 4/1
Kim Muir: Relax 3 points win 1 point place @ 25/1

Backed Zamdy Man but didn't hear him called once, but did get the Coral Cup winner. Good to see another Creevytennant backer.

with you on Cue Card and Ballynagour Judo :)

"Pertemps Final: Jetson 2.5 points ew  @ 14/1"

Thanks Rick

Your horses race now Judo

Best of luck

CUE CARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well done Rick!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well done judo

well done judo

Brilliant stuff

Well done Judo

Thanks! I never lost faith

8lb clear on the Peak Performance Potential ratings

last year Sprinter Sacre 10+lb clear

Next year pay attention because when they are clear they win easily too

Great stuff Judo

waiting to hear who will ride Sir Des Champs, I might decide to lay off

Clare just said no decision will be made until tomorrow morning.

I have loads running on from multiples with CC, TNO and At Fishers Cross if he wins I will lay my stake back

Ballynagour broke down in running, maybe hurt himself with a sticky jump?

That's a shame. Hope he'll be ok.

Not a good race for David Pipe.

Any news on Matuhi?

Forgot Smad Place who I advised ew at 20/1 got in the frame

he was badly served by the very slow pace, would be definitely of interest next year

Excellent thread!

Well done, Judorick.

Well done with Cue Card.

whos TNO????
well done with cue card jud...i was all over this myself until first lieutenant got declared...then i lost the faith...kicking myself now!

The New One

I still don't know why so many got sucked in to FL if you look objectively but there you go

i got sucked into the stat that out and out stayers have started winning thew ryan air. which i thought from form lines fl was the the most obvious stayer out of the two.

But all cue card did today was stay n stay..relished the better ground...I still wouldn't be sure if he would stay on soft going

still makes no sense when you look at the positives and negatives for the two horses, was obvious to me that CC was well clear on the line through BW and the Irish have never won the Ryan Air and before that only won the Cathcart once

I just checked the Racing Post results section for the RPR for the Ryan Air

Cue Card          RPR 174
Flight Lieutenant RPR 166

I think you will find that is a difference of 8lbs

The best horses on ratings dont always win,maybe a lot thought FL would be better off over a bit shorter than 3m and would improve for the distance,and maybe a lot thought CC may not stay so well.

We all get things wrong at times.
I thought FL was tailor made for this race,and he had won what i considered to be a pretty good Neptune at the distance.
I also thought Cue Card was a serious player,and the prices being offered yesterday morning were rather generous!!

Think we learned yesterday that Cue Card stays 2m5 ok,although i did think he would be fine,and that FL should probably have contested the Gold Cup,as he got outpaced,and all season he had been trained for the GC.

Hello Judo,

Great call on the 18.50 last night, I stayed away after your advice. 

A quick question - I agree with your call on the Triumph, but was wondering if it makes a trend difference if the horse is NH bred or Flat bred? Probably more important this year given the ground?


Good luck with your bets today - great call on CC yesterday nice win for me.

Regards,

Daz

I've no idea mate, if they ran on the flat they need to have placed over 1 mile 4 furlongs

to be honest I am only crossing my fingers for the Triumph. The Albert Bartlett and Gold Cup are my preoccupation today. Big money at stake if either wins, massive if they both do. Slightly nervous you could say

God luck today mate

Could be a McCoy double?


Best of luck to ya!

I have added these:

Salubrious 2 points ew 16/1 MCP Hurdle
Alderwood 4 points win 6/1 JH Grand Annual

to go with

At Fishers Cross, Rolling Star, Sir Des Champs already advised

crapping it now, come on AP for once do me a favour

PHEW!!!!!

can he double up?

Of course he can.

Strange old day isn't it Rick?

I can't really get into it with what happened to JT.

JP very very upset there.

crapping it here Sue, what with the jockey change and the rain I am seriously nervous

will be laying in running for sure

yes JP barely holding it together poor man

I'm nervous but feeling quietly confident.

all the best judo, waiting on sir des champs here too

gutted but a great race could have done without the rain

did not jump fluently and traded 1.4 in running

traveled like a dream but my heart sank when i saw bob's red cap in behind at the 2nd last, knew it was over

what a great buzz, no regrets or what-ifs, the best horse won

Was a great race to watch.

Very disappointed SDC couldn't win. AP gave it his best shot.

Very happy to see Ruby and SC up on their feet ok.

if the rain had held off he might have stayed better but so would BW, shame we didn't get to see him under ideal conditions as he just got outstayed

still been a fab festival! can't wait for next year

Don't go Rick! We've still got 3 races to come!

Blimey, this Foxhunter's a bit fast and furious.

Poor girl

terrible for her

18yo

Finally backed a hcp winner with Salubrious, should have paid for all the hcp losers! Nice won

"Salubrious 2 points ew 16/1 MCP Hurdle"



Thanks Rick!

And Alderwood!1 Woohoo what a day!!

Lol! Thanks again Rick!

"Alderwood 4 points win 6/1 JH Grand Annual"

Great pick with Salubrious.

Had run behind At fishers Cross and African Gold then hosed up at Mussleburgh, fitted most trends, worth a pop (oh and clear top rated on my PPP)

Well done judo & especially with Salubrious

Now that it's all over I thought I would have a look at the results. there were a few non runners and if NRNB was not taken then results would be different but I have eliminated them as I did do NRNB. I have also not included Champagne Fever who I did in fact back, and posted on several threads on the day, but did not advise in the original write ups so I left him out. I also laid Overturn in the place for 3 points but have not included that here either. There were much bigger prices available on some runners like Salubrious but I have kept to simple bookies prices for ease of calculation

                            Stake       Price      Finished     Returned

Sir Des Champs               5 win        9/2          2nd           0
Zarkandar                    2 ew         4/1          4th           0
Boston Bob                   5 ew         6/1          Fell          0
Cue Card                     5 win        4/1          1st          25
Rolling Star                 2.5 ew       5/1          Lost          0
The New One                  2 ew         4/1          1st          14
Aupcharlie                   1 ew         5/1          lost          0
At Fishers Cr.               5 win        5/1          1st          30
Salsify                      3 win        3/1          1st          12
Creevytennant               0.5 ew       33/1          lost          0
Colour Squadron              1 ew         9/1          lost          0
Monky. Tunky                 0.5 ew      25/1          lost          0
Loch Ba                      2 ew        16/1          lost          0
Merry King                   2 ew        16/1          lost          0
Abbey Lane                   1 ew        12/1          lost          0
Un Beau Matin                1 ew        20/1          lost          0
Owega Star                  0.5 ew       33/1          lost          0
Smad Place                  1 ew         20/1          3rd           6
Back In Focus               1 win        6/1           1st           7
Rival D'Estruval            2 ew         8/1           Fell          0
Zamdy Man                   2 ew         20/1          lost          0
Jetson                     2.5 ew        16/1          3rd        12.5
Ballynagour                 5 win        4/1           lost          0
Relax                      3w 1p         25/1          lost          0
Salubrious                  2 ew         16/1          1st          44
Alderwood                   4 win         6/1           1st         28   


26 Selections
7 winners

Advised Bets and returns at advised prices

Total points staked                    82
Returned                             178.5
Profit                                96.5
ROI %                              117. 68

I will have a few days reflection on what I did, what I didn't spot, what wrong conclusions I came to and where I could have improved.

Well done, and good to see the hard work paying off.

Excellent stuff Judo. Well done with the last 2 especially.

Bob`s Worth runs up to his best after a break, that was evident and his was always going to take him  close. So that was one one stat i ignored.

the rain was significant in the result and the jockey change was not ideal SDC simply did not stay under those conditions - had it been sunny all week with a nice breeze and Davy Russell riding who knows what would have been the result because the race would likely have been run 20 or more seconds faster than it was yesterday - 28 seconds slower than standard is very slow for horses of that calibre and there is no doubt it compromised SDCs chance of winning so I will I will take no lectures about ignoring stats, I ignored nothing and was aware of everything. I accepted in the OP that there will be stats busters and Bobs Worth was a stats buster.

my Peak performance ratings selected the top 3 if you look earlier in the thread with SDC top rated but as I have repeatedly said these ratings are for maximum performance under ideal conditions

Sir Des Champs did not have his ideal conditions and was not able to produce his best. Unfortunately we will never know what would have happened on good ground, he was very unlucky that the rain did not hold off for a few hours. Bobs Worth handled the conditions much better and that was decisive

The times for the last few years races were:


2013  7m 5.06s
2012  6m 36.19s
2011  6m 29.7s
2010  6m 43.9s
2009  6m 44.95s

Very bad luck with the two fallers. Both looked likely win at the time or being placed at least.

Judo

Bob`s Worth only won on courage and class. His wheels were spinning on the ground, BG said he didn`t handle it. He is much better on good ground. So to suggest that it was the ground that cost SDC the race is stupid.

Read that the rail was moved Judo and the Gold Cup was run over 84yds shorter than it should have been, so the time was even slower than it looks!

lol

Is it 2014 yet?