Who understands place markets??

Layers are suggesting if it fails to win then that could be because of a mishap or injury.

If you think 1.81 is value take it all day

Exactly, getting 4/9 a place is value in any ones books if it lines up.

4/9ths

I don't really want to back anything at 4/5 - especially ante-post.

I take your point about the mishap/injury, but that doesn't fully explain it because the win price
is supposed to reflect all those possibilities. At the end of last week the win price was 2.7 and the
place price was still 1.8.

In fact, the lowest place price matched is 1.74 and the win price has been down to 2.56.

It makes me thing that the price to win is too short rather than that the price to place is too long, tbh.

think is with cheltenham difference between 1st and 6th may be next to nothing small fractions price about right.

Best priced 13/8 with the books. So price is about right.

Simonsig is 2/5ths for the place. Same for Quivega. MTOY is about 4/9ths so slightly better layers are simply suggesting if it runs below form then there is more of a chance it getting stung for a place.

Agree with Howdie.

Oh Gabriel its Howdi withan i pal

^^^ with an i

Gabrial with an `a` Howdi partner!

I know I did it on purpose

The Hell you did.

On stats alone Ill be backing Long Run to place say what you like about the beast his place record is unrivalled including Kauto Star!!

Long Run has the potential to down tools at Cheltenham especially if he wacks one or two.

not seen evidence of that angel.

Long Run has had 4 attempts at Cheltenham and 3 times he has found zilch up the hill.

He was so well in 2011 that the race fell into his lap, but overall i can`t imagine the horse enjoys Cheltenham at all.

What rubbish that is Gabrial.

He was a 5yo who'd been racing for almost 14 months solid when he ran in RSA

He was wrong post race in Paddy Power, where 2m4f is hardly his trip given how much of a stayer he is

He broke the track record when winning his Gold Cup

Last season he was involved in a sprint finish and was all out in the sprint from 4th last to line. The pace of last years race plummeted when Kauto pulled up nearing end of first circuit. Horses in that race stamina wasn't tested hence the bunch finish which is rare in true run Gold Cups.


Finally, No horse wins a Gold Cup if they don't enjoy Cheltenham ffs.

as jimmy tarbuck once said 'theres a difference of opinions here'

Just a tad

Long Run finding nothing up the hill made me laugh. Horse has the best engine in history if the sport. As Ted Walsh said "you'll never find the bottom of him". His problems are idling in front, sketchy jumping, no change of pace at all, and the dentist on his back.

But not his Monsterous Engine. Horse would win a National under top weight if jumping round.

Last season he was involved in a sprint finish and was all out in the sprint from 4th last to line

Yep outsprinted by who exactly CV ?

Outsprinted by Synchronised - is that the excuse? not that he found zilch. Keep em coming Byrney

Well I know you have just posted an opinion without actually looking into the race in the depth I have.

Synchronised couldn't get involved in the race from the 4th last as he was too busy getting from one side of a fence to the other.

The Dentist stupidly decided to get involved in the sprint from 4th last to the line, when they all went too quick. They had their race and were very tired on the run in and Synchronised who never got involved with that battle came by in his own separate race.

If the dentist was smart he'd of let them bolt off too fast like they did and delay his run till he rounded the home turn to deliver Long Runs challenge up the Hill. Kauto and Denman tired eachother with their tussel in 2011 and Long Runs challenge was perfect.

It's the problem with an inexperienced Jock.

The reason we had a bunch finish last year was the pace from top of hill to line at end of first circuit was 6 seconds slower than in 2011, that's 4 fences and occured when Kauto Star pulled up. Yet the pace to that point and from that point to the finishing line was idential in the two years. This gave every horse a huge mid race breather and resulted in so many average horses full of running at the top of the hill.

Long Run needs a fierce end to end gallop to bring out his biggest asset, that huge engine. He didn't get it in last years Gold Cup as Kauto pulled up.

I am a Long Run fan and have had the defeat in the Gold Cup last season down as an off day, as I couldn't see how he could be beaten by the horses that beat him. It's good to see that you've formulated a theory to that performance CVB, and maybe you're right. This year should be run at a stronger gallop hopefully and that will suit Long Run more than any other horse, as he is the best stayer and has a very good cruising speed, but, as you've mentioned in your post, lacks a change of gear.

I'm convinced he's the best horse in the race, and would be very surprised if he didn't place. And for those that suggest he might fall, it's getting old. He never makes bad race-ending errors, just doesn't jump cleanly at times.

Ever heard of paralysis by over analysis CVB? You are suggesting he needs something which he can not guarantee is going to happen to b e seen at his best, and if he doesn`t get that scorching gallop he will only plod on up the hill.

However he never flops at Kempton. Where is he more likely to flop CV? What are the chances of him just plodding up the hill?

You do the maths.

Exactly, horse has never been unplaced in his career, in France or England. There are loads of problems with him like less than fluent jumping and the inexperienced jockey. But I think Cheek Pieces will stop him idling tbh. Hope they're fitted.

Very open race though, who knows who'll win. SDC, Bobs and Sil Conti all could win.

this will be the toughest race he's been in for sure

You aren't very intelligent are you Gabrial, you just have silly throw away comments and no intelligent opinion. You call my piece over analysis when you lack the ability for any analysis.

At Kempton they go a helluva clip and that's always gonna play to Long Runs strengths. In 2011 Gold Cup they went a helluva pace from pillar to post, this is why he broke the track record. Last season this did not happen and as such we see a bunched finish as it wasn't a true run race.

He can't make the running as he idles, he has quirks which I outlined. Bad jumping, idling in front and a poor jockey.

I posted my repost as you made the comment a Gold Cup winner who broke the course record "finds zilch up the hill". I think that comment alone should point to how lowly your opinions should be held.

Long Run (FR) 7/4F    7    11-10     Nicky Henderson    182    *    *    »
Mr S Waley-Cohen
   
Tracked leaders, disputed 2nd 4 out, hit 3 out and dropped to close 3rd, rallied and hit 2 out, driven to challenge last, soon one pace under pressure and one pace into 3rd close home (op 2-1)

One pace = zilch

You CVB are fitting the pieces into your own jigsaw. You will make it all fit for your own perception to be correct. However the evidence that he found zilch last year is unmistakable.

Once he does it again this year then you will wag your tale off sheepishly and ignore my requests for a truce

As expected, you cannot articulate anything intelligent to back up your daft comment.

The face that you think "one Pace = zilch" just confirms you're cluelessness.

CVB

You see yourself in an all knowing elitist way but the connections of Long Run all understand the horse was below par at Cheltenham last year.I understand it. Millions of others understand it. Why can`t you accept it? You don`t think the horse from 2011 could power away from The Giant Bolster??

Perhaps you are missing another reason for the poor display.

I don`t want to see my selections staying on one paced, do you? is that what you look for? Some horses get sick of the sight of that hill Byrney, especially if they are not in career peak condition. That hill takes no prisoners. Just because a horse does it once does not mean he will ever find again. Horses remember hard races. Do you think breaking a course record comes easily?

Am i starting to get through to you CVB? He didn`t find last year because the hill fills him full of dread.

CV back to being the P**** of the forum, it would be nice if you would listen to other opinions and stop trying to be the forum bully, you can always go back to the purple side if you want.

Forum bully, that's a classic one.

Everyone is allowed their opinion, but it doesn't mean stupid opinions shouldn't be called for what they are.

The point of a forum is for debate. I'm sure plenty of people read both my opinions on Long Run and Gabriels. They can decide which makes more sense and be armed with a bit more info on the horse.

I treat daft opinions with the disdane they deserve. I can't let people read and absorb such nonsense as Long Run finding ziltch up the hill, he broke the track record ffs winning the Gold Cup. Only a moron would say such nonsense.

So I posted a well researched piece based on last year's Gold Cup. I'm sure plenty of people found it informative that the race pace plummeted mid race giving the field a rare breather and it explains the bunch finish.

Just because I had to call a moronic opinion for what it is in the process is just an added bonus tbh.

Byrne

Get it into your thick skull Long Run found nothing up the hill last year. You are living in the past. You believe Long Run was out sprinted by Synchronised right? and you claim to have an excuse for this. Your making a mockery of the horses 2011 ability.

History is scattered with previous GC winners who then fail to `go to the well`again when faced with the hill. Inn your opinion Long Run on form can maintain a searching gallop with zippy horses in the KG yet can not keep up with Synchronised up the hill at Cheltenham. This is your logic. Rather than face up to the horse not maintaining the same ability at Cheltenham.

You sir are talking nonsense, and i see no one has yet agreed with you on this matter.

Angel
What planet are you on?
How do you knock a horse thats never been unplaced?
Does he just race against total crap and it happen by accident? The horse has raced at the very top level for 3 seasons!!!!! It is by far the most solid horse in the race in terms of proven form. It is certain to stay the trip, if something beats it fine but it wont be because it finds nothing up the hill its because the other is a better horse end of story.

Listen Robbie

If you come across any of posts regarding Long Run in the KG then you will soon realise i champion him at Kempton and scoff at the chances of 165 rated animals turning him over. However i have my theory regarding his consistent ability at Cheltenham.

Are you suggesting Synchronised and The Giant Bolster are now better than Long Run? this is your comment "if something beats it fine but it wont be because it finds nothing up the hill its because the other is a better horse end of story."

you need to go back to the start of the argument robbo

Im saying both clearly were last year yes otherwise they wouldnt finish 1st and 2nd in that race.
Just out of interest on the consistent at Cheltenham front still never been unplaced, pretty consistent i would say!!!!

So you are saying he was beaten by better horses last year? or that he under performed?

Bearing in mind that The Giant Bolster was given a rating of 164. What does this say about the run of Long Run last year?

especially as the 2011 rating was around 180?

Yes Jud, CVByrne is suggesting the horse ran over a stone below it`s best because the pace slackened off mid race. Where i am saying it was something more psychological in Long Runs mind.

Robbo I'd save your breath. You can't rationalise with this level of idiocy. Same people said the same things about Kauto Star in 2009. They get a simplistic notion and stick by it despite an inability to convince anyone else as the idea is so idiotic to begin with.

Robbo if you read further down you'll see my explanation for Long Runs poor run last year. Which is his first poor run since the Paddy Power in 2010.

there is also a strong possibility that the 2011 race was over rated, Kauto and Denman both 11 yo and no 10 year old has won for as long as I can remember; course records are more to do with track conditions than anything so I would ignore that especially as the Topspeed rating was only 157 which is pretty slow for championship races

Same people said the same things about Kauto Star in 2009

Nope, i never said this about Kauto. More twisted logic/facts from the Byrne.

Yes Jud i think if we point out Long Run beat What a Friend by 11 lengths it adds more sensibility to the form.

funny how the handicapper rated the three runs up to and including the GC win 180, 180 and 181 but his last 3 runs no higher than 172

I actually think the rating has been fairly consistently around 170-172 all along

Feb 25, 2013 -- 1:17PM, judorick wrote:

funny how the handicapper rated the three runs up to and including the GC win 180, 180 and 181 but his last 3 runs no higher than 172I actually think the rating has been fairly consistently around 170-172 all along

probably the most sensible comment on the whole thread

Yes i don`t think Long Run was any better than 172 at Cheltenham in 2011. At Kempton close to 180.

Last year about 162. So he regressed 10lb in my book at Cheltenham last year. I don`t expect to see anything better this year. That`s why i think he is a place lay.

i still think its too early to make any hard and fast judgements about how i would play this race, as i think it  is very dependent upon the state of the ground on the day.

Yes ADR..2 mins before the off.

think i will wait till they have jumped the last before i nail my colours to the mast

Going back to the headline post, don't forget that ante post bets include the important possibility of non runner due to a change of mind by connections or injury. At this stage, 15 days before the race I would put that at 1/8 approx. That price is the same for win and place so the rest of your double (running and winning/placed) is about 2.73 and 1.69 respectively. You also have the chance of falling which is the same win or place.

winning 1 G.C and beaten only 3L
in another,I wouldn't be place
laying him,but that's just my own
view.
    GL.

Thanks sageform. I'll go and do some more sums, but I see your point.

Fair enough Penzance, but it`s not the fact he came 3rd last year, it`s more to do with the ability of the horses that beat him.

The Giant Bolster is not expected to place this year. So why should Long Run.

Sageform
I've done the sums and your theory stacks up perfectly. The implied priced against MYTOY running is 1.41

1.957 x 1.41 = 2.76 (current price)

1.319 x 1.41 = 1.86 (current place price)

1.957 at a third the odds a place = 1.319

So the question is: is he 2/5 to run? You reckoned about 1/8. In which case we should be having the 1.86.

Long Run is a fantastic each way bet, I don't expect to see him win but also can't see him out of the first 3. His jumping at Haydock was horrific and the dentist is also a huge negative...but that engine will get him placed

^^^That engine got beat by The Giant Bolster last year. What price TGB to get placed?