The bets the mugs will be on

MTOY and HF, agreed with dynaste too

MTOY and HF, agreed with dynaste too

Ballydoyle.
What are your bankers

First Lieutenant Ryanair is my Banker.

The mugs will be all over MTOY, the Fly and SDC Gold Cup

I'll just say it before anyone else does

THE MUGS WILL BE ALL OVER ALL THE SHORTIES ALL WEEK

End of thread

So if FL loses your a mug then

I'm confused because I know I'm already a mug but won't be backing dynaste or FL.

Haha Duffy, you and me both mate

Though just read that again and i actually think FL would have half a chance in the gold cup! His form kinda ties in with SDC on lexus form dont it, and hes less than half his current price with the books!

Looks like he's heading to the ryanair doesn't it, the 5.3 to place in the gold cup would be very nice if you knew he was running in it.

Jasey....Sir Des Champs at 7/1

To all of the "Betfair elite" enjoy Cheltenham.

What arrogance!

Forty

F L will prob run in Ryanair because of owner arrangements and  SDC although Mouse says he prefers gold cup for him.But only a mug could say he has no chance in gold cup....Beat Rock On Ruby in neptune,second to Bobs Worth in RSA. Obviously  has a liking for track and usual good going..His run in Lexus to leave him spot on for festival ....If running will have a better chance than most.

MTOY, Dynaste would be the two I'd see overbet and go off a terrible price.

Mugs just bet all horses at top of market, they'll get some winners but overall they'll lose usually.

OP, wasn't you livid about pointless threads being opened a few threads back?

One mans mugs bet is another mans cert - it's the nature of the game and why we all spend so much time on here in the lead up to the festival.  Yes based solely on price these 2 will go off as poor value but it doesn't make you a mug if you fancy them to win based on what they have achieved.  What do you expect supporters of any short priced horses to do, not back them just based on price alone ?  FWIW I'm convinced Dynaste wont win the RSA and wont be backing it for that reason.  MTOY might well win the Supreme and if it does fair play to it's backers but there are others I fancy more in that race.  In other words no one posting on here is a mug for backing anything - you can assume we all have a reasonable enough knowledge of the game to make a reasoned choice.  Many who just go for the day out and back favs blind could well be classed as mugs by some but they are as entitled to spend their money that way as we are.

Bally
what makes backing Dynaste different to backing SDC

Mister
Good points,A friend of mine bets nothing but favs (he doesnt bet every race)and makes a good profit every year. Not all favs are shorties,MTOY a couple of wks ago was about 9/2 BW was a similar price in his last win.

^ neither of them have won yet!

sorry robbo you mean in their last races, take your point

Mr Westsound is correct, we mugs can spend our money how we like. It will be the original poster who looks a mug if either of the 2 above comes in!!!

For me - Dynaste is a definite no-no (stats - that's what sets it apart from SDC which fits loads of stats after it won the hennessey).

I'm a FL fan though.

The thing is, not to fancy anything really and look for a horse, thats price is bigger than it should be. Horses that win their last race, before the Festival in the Championship races, is almost essential. So horses that won their last race and are anything from between 9/2-14,16/1 are the places to look for value. The horses that are shorter than 9/2 are generally not value.
Sprinter Sacre, will go off at around 1/5, this year and looks unbeatable, but do you really want to risk a fiver to win a quid, or £50, just to win a tenner and of course I expect there may be a £50,000 to win £10,000 on course, on the day. Hotpots do get beat, anything can happen, with a loose horse, horse makes a bad error and any other unexpected thing that can happen in a horse race.
These factors should be considered, before backing a shortie, at the greatest race meeting of them all. Favourites that go off at under 4/1, have a very poor record at the festival.

Mugs follow Stats m8

And mugs who follow stats at Cheltenham make a profit every year for the last 5 years (ie me)!!!!!!!!!!!

Any losing bet is a MUGS bet as well.

You  have several runners in every race then

If its borne of blindly following stats - yes. There has to be a line though. If I really fancy something (esp if overprices as cri**** says) I can put the stats aside when I feel the need. Each to their own.

My proper mugs bets are HF and Jezki. Can't see them winning at all. Stats involved I'm sorry to say!!!

Right Jasey, here's a simple one for you. A toss of a coin, bookie offers you 2/1 against, that it comes down heads, but it comes down tails. That is not a mugs bet, because it has lost.

It is m8

Well you have no chance of ever, making a profit. The bookmakers at Cheltenham and generally every day, will put in the favourites and 2nd favourites even shorter, than they should be. Why. Because they want everyone to back them, knowing that the price will lengthen, later in the day, because the pro's and astute betting punter, won't back them. at incredibly short prices. Some favourites do win, about a third of them. At the more competitive meetings, it is probably slightly less.

Agree with all that.

Oh and the coin toss is the classic mug bet,if a bookie is offering 2/1 i would come to the conclusion that the coin is double sided.

Personally the author this Fred is the mud IMO.

Obliviously a pro punter

Of -- mug    1-3 had a few sherberts

Of -- mug    1-3 had a few sherberts

Titch - back to GCSE English for you son but I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on how Dynaste and FL can win these races if you're able to put yer Diamond White down...


jasey 23 Feb 13 12:44 Joined: 22 Jul 08 | Topic/replies: 460 | Blogger: jasey's blog
Bally
what makes backing Dynaste different to backing SDC
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Where do we start? Let's start with some trends...

Dynaste :

French bred. Poor record in the RSA.
The last 49 winners of the RSA have all ran in same calendar year. He hasn't.
18 Feltham Chase winners have tried to win this. It's never been done.
Last run at Festival?45 lengths behind Big Bucks in the World Hurdle.
Rare for a horse to have spent more than one season over hurdles to win an RSA

Sir Des Champs :

Cheltenham record : 11
Last 13 have won a Grade One Chase - Ticks the box
17 out of 19 aged between 7 and 9 - he's 7
Last 12 winners finished top 3 in betting - he is currently second favourite
11 out of last 12 rated 166 or higher - he is rated 166
13 of last 14 won earlier in season - he won the Irish Hennessey

Personal opinions :

Dynaste - flashy type who should head for the Jewson over the 2m 4 as would hold an outstanding chance. Can see it right up in the van in an RSA, jumping well then being overtaken coming round the rurn by the likes of Boston Bob and Lord Windermere who are crying out for 3m. Very easy to compare it with Grands Crus and I will also. If you are taking 9/4 you are betting on

a) Something which has never happened before
b) Something when the last time it happened was 50 years ago
c) A horse who got thumped the last time it ran at a Festival

Sir Des Champs - being brought to the boil by Mullins. Staying on like no tomorrow in the Lexus and duly took care of Flemenstar given a more positive ride in the Irish Hennessey. Been brought over twice and won twice. A further 2 furlongs right up his street. Contenders? Bobs Worth - exceptional Cheltenham record but if he won this he would be the second horse ever to win with less than 6 chase starts. Only had one run this season also. Last winner to do this was Garrison Savannah in 1991, who also won the RSA I admit. Silviniaco Conti - no Cheltenham form. Never ran in double figure field. Will he be able to dominate over a stiff 3m 2? I like him but can see him being outstayed by the former two. Must mention First Lieutenant who is a Ryanair winner in the making and should run there as would claim Cue Card up the hill.

Bally

Now out of my Sunday evening haze i have to say that i agree with most of the above.

There will have been punters backing both of the above with their own reasoning, no matter if potentially flawed by the stats, does this make them mugs, not in my opinion which is the point i was trying to make, badly i agree.

c) A horse who got thumped the last time it ran at a Festival (and over three miles)

That for me is the more important no-no attached to Dynaste.

a and b wouldn't bother me because they apply to other horses, not him.

Looks like these two aren't even gonna line up

Good call then! Or victory for the stats (see other threads ad nauseum)!!!