Cheltenham Festival
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On the face of it this years RyanAir could end up being the best quality field ever assembled since the races inception, with Sizing Europe, Cue Card, First Lieutenenant, Champion Court, Riverside Theatre, Finians Rainbow, Grands Cru, Albertas Run and Menorah all in contention at this antepost stage.
On closer inspection it looks a little easier!
The ones that wont pitch up:
Sizing Europe will miss the Ryan Air and run in the Queen Mother, I think De Bromhead and connections will want to win back the crown they lost so unfortunately in last seasons Queen Mother. Swerving round the last fence did him no favours. Critical forward momentum was lost, and the race with it. Revenge will be sort!! No easy task against Sprinter Sacre, but Sprinter is yet to race against a true Grade 1 Chaser like Sizing Europe. He will go there with hope and banker 2nd place prize money. If they use their logical brain, they would run in the Ryan Air and win it. I recommend a saver on the day if he turns up, but that unfortunately wont happen!!
First Lieutenant will go for the Gold Cup. He has a fine chance of winning it and the trainer feels the Gold Cup is the right race. Mr RyanAir would have two good bullets for the Gold Cup. I think he will rely on Roi du Mee in the RyanAir. If he does run though he would have a great chance in this, maybe next year!
Grands Cru will miss the RyanAir and go for the easier World Hurdle, or miss the Festival completely.
The Ones That Run:
Cue Card is a Grade 1 performer and could win it at this trip, but he gets beaten by other, better Grade 1 horses, and the same fate will happen once more. He might also swerve this for the Queen Mother, especially if Sizing Europe turns up in the RyanAir!!
At the start of the season Finians Rainbow was my idea of the winner, but he has run so poorly this year I just cant tip him. He has the class to win it on goodish ground and will be my value saver on the day.
Menorah is very interesting, I've always thought he was classy and stepping upto this trip is ideal. He could win this, but he would need to put in his best ever round of jumping, and I feel the fences will beat him.
Champion Court ran a great prep race behind Sir Des Champ at last years Festival. That's very good form, also Pricewise likes him so we should bow to the master, lol!! I see him more for a place though.
If Albertas Run could do it again it would be amazing, I love this horse and backed him the times he won, but age is against him, and probably the ground wont be genuinely good how he likes it. Sorry but cant have him this time round.
This leaves Riverside Theatre, my selection. Some horses repeat their wins and this genuine Grade 1 performer will do it again. His class, jockeyship and guts won him the race last year. I like those attributes in a top class horse. You can put a line through the King George, ulcers and the ground were against him that day.
Hendo will have him spot on and he should win the race easier than last year, if he doesnt hopefully his guts and class will see him win a tight finish!
Take the 9.2 now. He will only get shorter.
Oh and put a little 30s and 75s in running, just in case he gets behind. He will stay on, just watch his Arkle performance!!
Dont forget the saver on Sizing if he turns up!!
Good Luck all!!
On closer inspection it looks a little easier!
The ones that wont pitch up:
Sizing Europe will miss the Ryan Air and run in the Queen Mother, I think De Bromhead and connections will want to win back the crown they lost so unfortunately in last seasons Queen Mother. Swerving round the last fence did him no favours. Critical forward momentum was lost, and the race with it. Revenge will be sort!! No easy task against Sprinter Sacre, but Sprinter is yet to race against a true Grade 1 Chaser like Sizing Europe. He will go there with hope and banker 2nd place prize money. If they use their logical brain, they would run in the Ryan Air and win it. I recommend a saver on the day if he turns up, but that unfortunately wont happen!!
First Lieutenant will go for the Gold Cup. He has a fine chance of winning it and the trainer feels the Gold Cup is the right race. Mr RyanAir would have two good bullets for the Gold Cup. I think he will rely on Roi du Mee in the RyanAir. If he does run though he would have a great chance in this, maybe next year!
Grands Cru will miss the RyanAir and go for the easier World Hurdle, or miss the Festival completely.
The Ones That Run:
Cue Card is a Grade 1 performer and could win it at this trip, but he gets beaten by other, better Grade 1 horses, and the same fate will happen once more. He might also swerve this for the Queen Mother, especially if Sizing Europe turns up in the RyanAir!!
At the start of the season Finians Rainbow was my idea of the winner, but he has run so poorly this year I just cant tip him. He has the class to win it on goodish ground and will be my value saver on the day.
Menorah is very interesting, I've always thought he was classy and stepping upto this trip is ideal. He could win this, but he would need to put in his best ever round of jumping, and I feel the fences will beat him.
Champion Court ran a great prep race behind Sir Des Champ at last years Festival. That's very good form, also Pricewise likes him so we should bow to the master, lol!! I see him more for a place though.
If Albertas Run could do it again it would be amazing, I love this horse and backed him the times he won, but age is against him, and probably the ground wont be genuinely good how he likes it. Sorry but cant have him this time round.
This leaves Riverside Theatre, my selection. Some horses repeat their wins and this genuine Grade 1 performer will do it again. His class, jockeyship and guts won him the race last year. I like those attributes in a top class horse. You can put a line through the King George, ulcers and the ground were against him that day.
Hendo will have him spot on and he should win the race easier than last year, if he doesnt hopefully his guts and class will see him win a tight finish!
Take the 9.2 now. He will only get shorter.
Oh and put a little 30s and 75s in running, just in case he gets behind. He will stay on, just watch his Arkle performance!!
Dont forget the saver on Sizing if he turns up!!
Good Luck all!!
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Nice write up,but one little problem. I think the only horse to beat Cue Card at the distance over fences in a completed race is Bobsworth. By a short head. In receipt of 7lbs. Cue Card actually beats grade 1 winners with alarming regularity....Al Ferof,Conti,For Non Stop,Menorah for starters.I could add those behind on Saturday.
I think Cue Card will find this 2m5f at a gallop a shade too far and get swallowed up at the end similar to the Bobs Worth race.
First Lieutenant the one for me at 10-1.
First Lieutenant the one for me at 10-1.
everyone's entitled to their opinion so thanks for taking the time to post yours, will be interesting to see what happens
for me, back on good ground going left handed Cue Card is set to explode. On my speed figures he is 8lbs clear of the field and the most likely to improve. If the trainer were to announce today that it was definitely going Ryan Air he would be 3/1. I remind everyone that he 1) gave 7lb to Bobs Worth at 2 mile 4 furlongs and got beat on the line and 2) no other horse horse has got as close to SS as Cue Card did in the Arkle so his form is exceptionally strong.
People seem to have forgotten that this crop of second season chasers has been mopping up the big races this season right from the start... and I really believe they will mop up the big races at Cheltenham in the QMCC, Ryan Air and Gold Cup. They are an exceptional bunch of second season chasers
for me, back on good ground going left handed Cue Card is set to explode. On my speed figures he is 8lbs clear of the field and the most likely to improve. If the trainer were to announce today that it was definitely going Ryan Air he would be 3/1. I remind everyone that he 1) gave 7lb to Bobs Worth at 2 mile 4 furlongs and got beat on the line and 2) no other horse horse has got as close to SS as Cue Card did in the Arkle so his form is exceptionally strong.
People seem to have forgotten that this crop of second season chasers has been mopping up the big races this season right from the start... and I really believe they will mop up the big races at Cheltenham in the QMCC, Ryan Air and Gold Cup. They are an exceptional bunch of second season chasers
I have my doubts about Riveside Theatre returning to the same form as last year. H had a very tough race and hasn't performed since, albeit only had two races but ran awful in both.
yes extremely tough to win a fierce race like this off his prep. Just got up under an inspired ride last year and will need to run at least as well to even get close and that has to be doubtful
i was gonna say exactly that GCW,so wont bother now
.
Bloody hard race indeed,and he just may not have forgotten that!!
Turns up,he may just be thinking....oh no not this again!!!
.Bloody hard race indeed,and he just may not have forgotten that!!
Turns up,he may just be thinking....oh no not this again!!!
yes mate he had a very hard race last year, was never really going, won the hard way
major negative for me
Menorah looks a possible danger
but it's all about Cue Card for me fingers crossed
major negative for me
Menorah looks a possible danger
but it's all about Cue Card for me fingers crossed
hi everyone, thanks for your comments. all food for thought! I have to agree that cue card probably has his optimum trip in the Ryan air, and I havent forgot the impression he made on me in the flat race. I backed Alferof and watched 4yo cue card hose up, plus the Supreme he ran in was the best bunch I have seen in the last 20 years of Cheltenham.
I can understand you being very strong on him, and good luck, you could easily be on the right one. the big negatives for me are:
1)how he fiddles a fence, I dont like it, he did it during the race when he beat Capt Chris, he also did it when he fell at Cheltenham. The topography of the track and fence positions in Championship paced races create this type of unseating/mistake, and I think Cue Card might be in the list of fallers/very bad mistake category. I'm not saying he cant jump round well, because he could easily deliver a great jumping win.
2) he will probably have a contested lead which might not suit his racing style
3) The jockey booking is a big negative for me, he a trier, but not in the same league as Barry or Ruby. That could easily be the difference.
Riverside has to bounce back and is best fresh, last year he won at Ascot before cheltenam, then won the ryanair, finishing a tired third at aintree run. I am expecting him to run two good races in the Ryanair and Aintree. I feel this is his optimum championship distance and will take some beating. However, cue card and first lieutenant scare me!!
I can understand you being very strong on him, and good luck, you could easily be on the right one. the big negatives for me are:
1)how he fiddles a fence, I dont like it, he did it during the race when he beat Capt Chris, he also did it when he fell at Cheltenham. The topography of the track and fence positions in Championship paced races create this type of unseating/mistake, and I think Cue Card might be in the list of fallers/very bad mistake category. I'm not saying he cant jump round well, because he could easily deliver a great jumping win.
2) he will probably have a contested lead which might not suit his racing style
3) The jockey booking is a big negative for me, he a trier, but not in the same league as Barry or Ruby. That could easily be the difference.
Riverside has to bounce back and is best fresh, last year he won at Ascot before cheltenam, then won the ryanair, finishing a tired third at aintree run. I am expecting him to run two good races in the Ryanair and Aintree. I feel this is his optimum championship distance and will take some beating. However, cue card and first lieutenant scare me!!
3) is a very strong reason to be worried. If a top pro was on board I would be hammering him even harder.
personally, i think sizing europe is going to run in this, and i really hope we get to see him him and cue card both trying to make all!
sizing's best performance of the season was over 2m4 at clonmel, his runs at 2m have been average by his previous high standards
if he tried to make all in the QMCC he'd just be setting it up for sprinter sacre and i think his days as a 2miler are over
sizing's best performance of the season was over 2m4 at clonmel, his runs at 2m have been average by his previous high standards
if he tried to make all in the QMCC he'd just be setting it up for sprinter sacre and i think his days as a 2miler are over
Sizing Europe would be interesting in this....as a FL fan he would worry me a lot more than Cue Card. Cue Card was at end of his tether in the BW race over a furlong shorter, didn't beat much LTO, finished tired in the King George. I just can't have him pounding up the hill like FL, Riverside or Sizing Europe. He'd be a sitting duck
Sizing is just sheer class, and loves Cheltenham and the better ground. This race would be perfect for him, especially at his age!
He'd be a sitting duck
he might be.... but he,d be in the ideal postion to take advantage, cant see him winning it but cant see him out of the first 3 if im honest
he might be.... but he,d be in the ideal postion to take advantage, cant see him winning it but cant see him out of the first 3 if im honest
Sizing would be my pick also now that Finians been shown to be well out of form and not going for this. I don't think he quite gets 3m but this trip should be alright.
There is a major factor against SE which is his age. I don't have the stat to hand but 11 year olds and up have a really terrible record at the whole Festival. Has to be a major worry. The stat will be in Paul Jones book when it gets delivered next week.
Yes he is a smart horse and yes he could theoretically win but in betting strategy terms it just don't make sense
Yes he is a smart horse and yes he could theoretically win but in betting strategy terms it just don't make sense
Aye that is an off putting factor. Alberta's did go close last year and I'm sure a Sue Smith 12 year old won one of the handicaps recently.Can't the name of it from top of my head. Moscow flyer last 11 year old I can remember winning one of the big races.
wasn't it Mister McGoldrick (God Bless Him!) who won at 66/1?
Anyway, 11 year olds taking on up and comers like CC et al not my kind of betting opportunity. I take it on the chin when one wins.
Anyway, 11 year olds taking on up and comers like CC et al not my kind of betting opportunity. I take it on the chin when one wins.
Ah yes that was it. Very admiral horse.
I can only see SE FL or CC winning this race, will have to look at declarations before deciding what to bet.
I can only see SE FL or CC winning this race, will have to look at declarations before deciding what to bet.
Alberta's did go close last year
He sure did,dont ignore him fellas,if the grounds in his favour.
Hes one of those that just dont know how old he is!!
Cos he stays a bit further hes real comfortable being in the van at this distance,and any horse that takes him on might just suffer a tad at the end.
He sure did,dont ignore him fellas,if the grounds in his favour.
Hes one of those that just dont know how old he is!!
Cos he stays a bit further hes real comfortable being in the van at this distance,and any horse that takes him on might just suffer a tad at the end.
I'm not ignoring him but have to rule our horses for one reason or another otherwise would never be able to have a bet. Making his season debut in the race at the age of 12 is enough for me to rule him out although I wouldn't begrudge it if he wins!
indeed
12 year olds have a worse record than 11 year olds and that's saying something. It's another one of those that I take on the chin if he wins. They just happen so infrequently that they cannot form any part of a long term betting strategy.
12 year olds have a worse record than 11 year olds and that's saying something. It's another one of those that I take on the chin if he wins. They just happen so infrequently that they cannot form any part of a long term betting strategy.
Well when hes the price he is it aint gonna hurt much to try and make a profit.
I read all this about him at the age of 11 and if it werent for the ride of the century he would have won.
Hes not been out this season,so will be as fresh as he was last year.
He will make them all go imo.
I read all this about him at the age of 11 and if it werent for the ride of the century he would have won.
Hes not been out this season,so will be as fresh as he was last year.
He will make them all go imo.
He twists in the air. The jockey is not in Ruby or Barry's class. He was beaten at the trip by Bobsworth. Ok,lets pretend he held on against Bobsworth. He is now trained by Henderson, ridden by Barry. Problem is he is now evens favourite.
The fact is, gentlemen,he is a Tizzard horse and will be ridden by Joe. THat's why the horse is better than 4s.Amazing value for a horse that SS aside,could become the best of his generation. You can harp on about about the old guard as much as you want....they are yesterday's heroes. Cue Card (and Joe)didn't fare too badly in the Arkle last year. Take away the monster and he wins the race doing handsprings,slaughtering decent yardsticks like Al Ferof. In a normal year, he'd be being lauded as the second coming. Take away the King George,wrong trip,wrong ground and stable out of sorts. You are left with the likely winner of this year's Ryanair.
The fact is, gentlemen,he is a Tizzard horse and will be ridden by Joe. THat's why the horse is better than 4s.Amazing value for a horse that SS aside,could become the best of his generation. You can harp on about about the old guard as much as you want....they are yesterday's heroes. Cue Card (and Joe)didn't fare too badly in the Arkle last year. Take away the monster and he wins the race doing handsprings,slaughtering decent yardsticks like Al Ferof. In a normal year, he'd be being lauded as the second coming. Take away the King George,wrong trip,wrong ground and stable out of sorts. You are left with the likely winner of this year's Ryanair.
I like Cue card as well,but leave Al Ferof out of it,he did not run his race.
Had SS not been in the Arkle we dont know who would have won out of CC and AF.
Had SS not been in the Arkle we dont know who would have won out of CC and AF.
Oh spare me. They were both in the race,one slaughtered the other. For the second time.Do not forget CC has also left Conti in its wake.
ps an alarming amount of horses "don't run their race* against Cue Card.Coincidence,or perhaps they just can't hack being taken out of their comfort zone?
Think you will find Ruby was a tad more concerned with Sprinter my friend.
pointless argument now, each has their own view and there is no way to prove anything
I will just say though that I did post before Xmas of 2011 that AF would definitely not win the Arkle, and that was before SS had his second start.
The best evidence was that they changed tactics and tried to front run but he was scrubbed along to do so while CC and SS were cantering the whole way. It is convenient for AF supporters that he made a race ending error because that does introduce some doubt, although I have none at all
I will just say though that I did post before Xmas of 2011 that AF would definitely not win the Arkle, and that was before SS had his second start.
The best evidence was that they changed tactics and tried to front run but he was scrubbed along to do so while CC and SS were cantering the whole way. It is convenient for AF supporters that he made a race ending error because that does introduce some doubt, although I have none at all
I don't think anyone doubts Cue Card is a talented horse it's whether he will show his best over the Ryanair trip which is up for debate.
one made a race ending mistake, it happens they are not machines;
ps an alarming amount of horses "don't run their race* against Cue Card
pmsfl
ps an alarming amount of horses "don't run their race* against Cue Card
pmsfl
Anyway,this has all been done before.
Maybe sometime in the future the horses can both run their race and show us.
I do know they are both useful horses with real good futures.
Maybe sometime in the future the horses can both run their race and show us.
I do know they are both useful horses with real good futures.
Scrubbed along
Come on Judo,AF was going well at the time.
Come on Judo,AF was going well at the time.
So is it now that he did not run his race,or was it that he paid the price for having a go at SS? I really think cc was having a go at ss as well,he just happened to make rather a better job of it because he is rather a better horse.
Whatever,i think you are way off.
But this is pointless.
But this is pointless.
I said to my mate as soon as I saw AF go to the front "that's him fooked" just not the pace to go on good ground over 2 miles... exactly my deduction before Xmas after his first two starts. Did not improve his speed figure and it was well below what was required. " and a half on heavy proved to be ideal. Would have been third in the Arkle but for the error
Ive seen it enough times,hes going fine Judo.
If he had not made that error i am absloutely convinced he would have finished at least 2nd.
Like you though mate,i cannot prove anything.
We disagree,no worries.
Lets leave it,and hope they meet again,with no excuses,and the best horse proves it beyond doubt.
If he had not made that error i am absloutely convinced he would have finished at least 2nd.
Like you though mate,i cannot prove anything.
We disagree,no worries.
Lets leave it,and hope they meet again,with no excuses,and the best horse proves it beyond doubt.
we will have to disagree and I've seen loads of times too, and he was never going mate and booked for 3rd
having watched the race again for the umpteenth time CC set the pace for AF and SS they were just steping it up when the mistake happened 
roll on next year they are sure to meet, and AF can put this to bed once and for all
roll on next year they are sure to meet, and AF can put this to bed once and for all
I know you are going to say 'but he made a mistake' but as I predicted the result exactly (remember I said SS would win easily and had at least 10lb in hand and Cue Card will be second) I think my opinion counts for a lot more than yours Budd. Sorry to be harsh but your analysis was miles away. I never gave you a hard time for holding your view , and rightly so there was nothing wrong with it apart from the result, but to then claim afterwards that the result would have gone your way is a bit strong mate.
As I say, I think the error was convenient because it introduces doubt. But I had none before the race and none after.
Still no doubt you will disagree so we will have to leave it.
But I'm right
As I say, I think the error was convenient because it introduces doubt. But I had none before the race and none after.
Still no doubt you will disagree so we will have to leave it.
But I'm right
lets hope they meet next season eh judo maybe have a little side bet? 
you were proved right because of a race ending error Judo,that is fact.And that fecked my analysis up as well.
Unfortunately that happens in horse racing.
Whether it would have been the same had he not made that error,we will never know,that is also fact.
I dont think so,you do.
Fair enough.
Unfortunately that happens in horse racing.
Whether it would have been the same had he not made that error,we will never know,that is also fact.
I dont think so,you do.
Fair enough.
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