Cheltenham Festival
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This seems to be a race where if you can work out who the Top BHA rated runner is you will probably be on the winner.
Since the race conditions have been changed the last two runnings have seen the cream rise to the top.
Have had a really good look at the race and one who fits so many criteria for the race is Sire Collonges at a very attractive 20/1.
Rated 146 and run twice at Cheltenham and finished second in the race that Teaforthree did last year and had featured the previous years first and second.
My feelings are if you knew this was the target that 20/1 would be highly attractive.
Since the race conditions have been changed the last two runnings have seen the cream rise to the top.
Have had a really good look at the race and one who fits so many criteria for the race is Sire Collonges at a very attractive 20/1.
Rated 146 and run twice at Cheltenham and finished second in the race that Teaforthree did last year and had featured the previous years first and second.
My feelings are if you knew this was the target that 20/1 would be highly attractive.
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My choice for this race would definitely be back in focus.He could potentially be a class above the rest of the field imo and seem to stay all day.
Hopefully willie will send boston bob for the RSA and this fella will go for the 4 miler. 12/1 is cracking value imo. GL with your own bet x20, it will be interesting to see whether rocky creek goes for this or the RSA as it could affect Sire Collonges' price. |
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Rocky Creek was taken out of this today
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Thanks BJG, didn't know that.
Feckin bookies still quoting it  |
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Houblon des obeaux entered in this and the RSA,his run last year in the pertemps final for a 5 yr old was outstanding.Thought they may have stayed hurdling for another year,however he has shown already he jumps fences well,and looks to go on any ground.He appears to have stamina in abundance,and could be a player in either of his entered races.Negatives would be lack of course chase run,rated 148, worth a second glance wherever he runs.
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Willie has already said that he is aiming Vesper Bell for this race. He ran a decent prep race recently, trying to give lumps of weight away, which he won't be doing in the NH chase.
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I agree with all of what Nocturnal says. Houblon Des Obeaux should be a big player in the 4miler. He looks a pure out and out stayer with stamina in abundance. The further he goes the better he will get! A future National winner!
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I agree on Houblon and thought he looked very gutsy at Ascot and a good jumper. Would be a good selection also.
Anyone know anything on SDC? |
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Is Sire Collonges likely to run though?
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Houblon has been taken out
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Merry King must a have a stonking chance in this....
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just heard SC maybe going for Festival chase which would be a pity.
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Sire Collonges must go well wherever he runs, excellent jumper and will be better on better ground. Looked really good round the course in a decent race in the Autumn.
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Agree Ming, just waiting for Jonjo to confirm he will be going
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I feel the same about Merry King but got a whisper he might be heading to Kim Muir so best to wait. I will be on him whatever race he goes for.
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I'm working on this race now and I came on this thread the first time tonight...
only to find you are all discussing exactly the horses I am looking at. Any news on Sire Collonges? He will be my bet if he runs. Then Merry King would be next for me. I have one other that I have my eye on too. Back In Focus makes my list too. |
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Like SC too, asked Nicholls in his Q and A yest but never answered me
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fecker! grrr
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I guys I have been working on this race yesterday.
Conclusion Rival D'Estruval Lyreen Legend Godsmejudge Three against the field in this order |
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Emperors choice for me matched at 400's + for peanuts mind. Won well today and plods on and on for ever. 26 a place too for £6.00. Better than nothing.
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Judo do you mind me asking how you have Merry King on your shortlist? My stats come out very similar to yours yet he misses for me having not won over 3m and is 6yrs old - 5 and 6 yr olds are 1-64 since 1989.
Sire Collenges is the one for me but going by price, he wont be turning up. Lots hit all stats: Rival Destruval Vesper Bell Harry Topper - 6 so discounted Back in Focus Godsmejudge Sire Collenges |
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I have not completed the work yet and normally merry king would be dismissed but he is trained by jonjo o'neill who has won the race 5 times and that is a key stat - if he were trained by anyone else I would dismiss him
the key stat to start from for me is an official rating of at least 138 and a minimum of three starts, I will eliminate from that list sire collonges was mine too, can't believe they are not going there this is my shortlist, the numbers are my peak performance ratings where I have one Merry King 140 Sea of Thunder 134 Sire Collonges 136 Back In Focus 44 (forty four) Harry Topper 132 Rival D'Estruval 120 Highland Lodge Hawkes Point Lyreen Ledgend |
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Cheers for that Judo, much appreciated
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I think rival d'estruval wants a second look in any list , i like it when an owner is bullish enough to highlight and reveal a long term target with a horse and when interviewed after his facile win at kelso in december where the interviewer suggested a campaign in all the big staying races between then and the festival he immediately dismissed the idea and nominated the NH chase as its next target after a break.
winning a class 2 chase by 23 when he made all quickened and stayed on strongly on soft going (going could be soft on the day of the race) but has won races on good and heavy ground aswell ticks all the boxes for me and will hopefully be a great start to the Wednesday. |
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Interesting that PN tipped Hawkes Point as his best outside chance on the BF Twitter thing last night. His form looks pretty good but best of it on heavy. Could be a negative or positive as points to getting 4m on g/s ground
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form at cheltenham is often important in this race, northern form is unreliable imo and I would be wary
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Think Harry Topper will miss chelt
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Interesting move for Drawn N Drank from the Bolger Yard ? A fair bit of blue across the board.
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