Cheltenham Festival
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lay market looks dubious. Anyone heard any news about him. Had him down as a banker and backed him accordingly. Am I worrying unnecessarily??
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Replies: 17
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Hope not, I've done the same.
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Just had a look and only £6 being offered to back him @ 6-1. Looks OK.
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Was no way a banker, hit with big rise for win in Dec xcountry and as such handicapped like Uncle Junior out of winning this.
I can't imagine the cross country is the most liquid market on betfair so I wouldn't worry too much. |
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Looks well enough in with Arabella Boy on Punchestown running and had loads to give after he won in December. Looks a real specialist, much more potential than Uncle Junior I'd say.
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How do you work that out, we've no idea what weights they'll be given for this.
Also Arabella Boy is no good at Cheltenham, Enda said he love Punchestown, that's his track and the Punchy festival cross country race will be his main aim. My view is Arabella, Uncle Junior and Outlaw Pete will be given too much weight after their wins to win again. Balthazar King and Bostons Angel are the 2 to focus on. Former will get about 11lbs from top weight UJ while latter will be 2lbs lower than Outlaw Pete. My take on it anyway. If you won a cross country that season handicapper now hammers you. |
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Been no big prices matched
 So there is no driftWas well beat the weekend again so people took down their money i assume |
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He beat Arabella Boy at Punchestown over a trip plenty sharp enough when that was rated 134 and he had a rating of only 100. Not sure why but can only assume he'd not got a Cross country rating. He was ridden early there but stayed on well and the extra distance would suit him more. You've said he was hit by a big weight rise but there are no weights out yet so we're both guessing but he had a real old fashioned sighter at the Paddy Power meeting and you won't see an easier winner than he was in December. Not many can really win this and ought to be in the money.
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He beat Arablla Boy last season, he's gone up in h/c for his win at Cheltenham this season, as Uncle Junior got hit with a whopping 19lbs for his win this season in November I'd expect Outlaw Pete to be hit with a big rise too,
You want to focus on Balthazar who had his 1 run, got beat and now waits for the big day. While the horses ahead and infront of him that day were Uncle Junior and Outlaw pete and he'll be on much better terms with them this time. As will Bostons Angel who should be getting weight from Pete this time for his 7l defeat in Dec where he was having his first experience of the track. Those 2 should be checked on to see if they're weighted to reverse form with the others who'll be hit for their wins this term. |
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Will av mid/high 140s here
This race is more of a horses for courses race tho rather than lookin for ones at the bottom of the hcap, weight dont usually stop em |
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Yeh i take not to much notice of weight in this race,never stopped Garde Champetre.
Any horse that's never been over banks before i wouldn't back with counterfeit |
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That used to be right BJ until handicapper got to grips with race and began to hammer the c&d specialists. Last 3 winners carried 10-0, 10-9, 10-9 trends have changed now. So time we adapt.
I'm gonna go with Balthazar and Bostons Angel. |
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balthazar is 7s with hills 1/4 odds for places. really does look a great value bet. i went in sunday afternoon to have 100 on, was offered 80.
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My understanding is that the handicapper sets the weights specifically for this race. Like the national he does not necessarily follow the ORs. Weight not so important for this race but rises such as those qouted eg 19 lbs are bound to have an effect.
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Just pretty clear to me that Outlaw Pete is an absolute monster over these fences and surely more important than a few lbs here and there as they only really race over the last 3 or 4 fences, the rest is like a trotting race. Hardly ever bet in the race and have never fancied anything until I saw him in November when I think he'd have beaten Uncle Junior if they'd wanted to.
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cvbyrnes , i was at punchestown the last time boston ran , i backed it that day , i'll stick my neck out and say i think he has regressed ...he was up in the van most of the way ,yet when the pressure was applied he seemed to falter ...not for me....
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Boston ran decent in race Outlaw Pete won.I would not discount any of the specialists,but i think BK needs fast ground,and after the deaths in the race last year,i imagine course will be soft or good to soft
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Scratched from National Betting today, but doesn't look to be a problem with him, as still in Cross Country betting.
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