Cheltenham Festival

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18 Feb 13 14:34
Date Joined: 16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 3,390 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
They are taking a huge chance on this horse pricing it up at 33/1. It's like last year all over again for him. Only 2lb higher when winning comfortably and 3lb less than when narrowly beat into 2nd. I'm not a believer that he doesn't handle soft, surpised they get away with that excuse.
Pause Switch to Standard View Son of Flicka 33/1 bet366
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Report Makybe_Diva February 18, 2013 6:53 PM GMT
Just been watching him coming second to Sir Des Champs at the 2011 Festival.
Report GoldCupWinner February 18, 2013 7:02 PM GMT
I'd be amazed if he didn't go off at least half the price of 33/1! Can see him being supported on the day.
Report GAZO February 18, 2013 7:23 PM GMT
depends on what the owner thinks his chances are
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat February 18, 2013 7:46 PM GMT
which race?
Report The RealDeal February 18, 2013 7:46 PM GMT
Wonder how much of it they'll actually be laying?
Report GoldCupWinner February 18, 2013 7:56 PM GMT
It's for Coral Cup. Pretty sure he'll have the handbrake off again for the festival. Obviously there is no way of telling how mch ability the horse retains when being laid out but still only 9.
Report liberator of the oppressed February 18, 2013 8:05 PM GMT
Just had a score each way.
Report CVByrne February 18, 2013 8:15 PM GMT
Backed him weeks ago. Total plot every year, amazed they can offer 33/1 after last year.
Report go-all-in February 18, 2013 8:24 PM GMT
I'v had the most they'd lay me (£30). Will try to sneak some more on if he's still that price come NRNB.

He could go for the pertemps instead though? He's ran in a qualifier I think this year... and iirc last year he had 2 entries as I backed him for one of the other races and he was NR.

The price makes up for the uncertainty though, it's so obvious that he only tries at Chelts and maybe Aintree. He'd have won the Martin Pipe the year previous if not having to give weight to a future Gold Cup horse in a handicap!
Report DukeofMarmalade February 18, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
Agree with all the above, absolute clear plot horse. I even remember McCain saying at the end of last year they would be wrapping him up with the aim to defend the Coral Cup. I've been nibbling away at the 33/1 for a few weeks now albeit I am a bit concerned they may go for the easier option of the Conditionals race. I was going to put a cover on NRFB with Victors for the Conditionals but they don't have him in the betting.
Report go-all-in February 18, 2013 8:39 PM GMT
Yeah just checked last year it was the Conditionals that I had backed him for early in the week (so had NRNB).

His price for alternative races (Pertemps/Conditionals) isn't so big, and isn't restricted to one bookie so I'm happy to wait it out for NRNB before covering those races.

That 33/1 for Coral Cup is absolutely bonkers though. If he's anywhere near that price come day of the race he'll be going in some "life changing" e/w doubles with other h/cap fancies!
Report go-all-in February 18, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
They've let me put him in a double with Divers for the Byrne Group Plate, so gone in small. Will be adding a 0 to the steak if them prices hold to NRNB :D
Report GoldCupWinner February 18, 2013 9:04 PM GMT
Divers is a horse I've backed myself a couple of times in the past. I think I was on him last year. Just doesn't find enough off the bridle for me to actually win but should have place claims again. Much more encouraging hurdles performance from him recently suggests he's also plotted up.
Report Fallen Angel February 18, 2013 9:05 PM GMT
Does look much too big considering all the other books have priced up an on the day price pretending to be ante-post. A very similar profile to last year and you can see Adrian lane being put on just before Cheltenham as before. Again beaten a distance which has helped the OR. Looks a very interesting prospect.
Report go-all-in February 18, 2013 9:13 PM GMT
Regarding Divers, he was 4th last year off 7lbs higher, and placed in the paddy power off 9lb higher. Only 3lb higher than when winning the Centenary Novices Hcap 2 years ago.

He doesn't win very often but looks very well h/capped for Chelts this year and his recent hurdle start advertises his well being :) - hopefully the drop in his chase mark can help him convert place claims into a win.
Report Can't Catch Me February 18, 2013 9:16 PM GMT
Saw this myself. As low as 12's with Coral! Surely a value play.
Report Tucho February 18, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
No offense to backers, but I really hope he's tailed off. I can't stand these horses that only try once a year, it's an insult to watch them canter around all winter on bad ground.

Why does the handicapper not do something? Just ignore every run this season, don't drop him a single pound, and have him running off 142,  the mark he achieved when winning last year, aka the last time he tried in a race.
Report Can't Catch Me February 18, 2013 9:23 PM GMT
Know why you're saying Tucho....and I agree entirely. Same applies to Divers
Report eastayrshire February 18, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
Aye it cost me circa £500 last year when GMOOH was 2nd, and they KNEW, Julie Williams tipped it on Morning Line too with a row of duck eggs (oeufs in france btw :-))
Report bigben February 18, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Now that Donald McCain has joined the elite amongst the training ranks, it means that he can do this sort of thing with no serious questions being asked. Sad but true.
Report johnn February 18, 2013 10:40 PM GMT
Not that GMOOH was a plot or anything, eastayrshire Silly
Report GoldCupWinner February 18, 2013 10:50 PM GMT
TBF I think gmooh ran mostly to his ability last year. The year before was a lot more suspect. Is he being aimed at the World Hurdle this year? Seems to love Cheltenham but probably too high for any of the handicaps now.
Report eastayrshire February 19, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
Yup the year before it ran terrible races prior to Cheltenham then oh so nearly won.......... again, last year I thought it had a lot to do with the weight it was carrying but I figured it might just do it, however it ran very well in defeat, just sour grapes when u get beat by a plot lol, its been one of those horses for me, I took a huge opinion on it in Supreme that it would beat Dunguib, I was right but got beat a snoatter by Menorah, v difficult to place to win at Cheltenham for it imho.
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