Cheltenham Festival
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Am I alone in thinking the 9/4 on the Pipe horse is a much superior bet?
Hopefully they dont fanny about with the Jewson. If he lines up in the RSA I think he goes off 5/4 ish.
I'd much rather take 9/4 on him than the shorter price on the fly.
Hopefully they dont fanny about with the Jewson. If he lines up in the RSA I think he goes off 5/4 ish.
I'd much rather take 9/4 on him than the shorter price on the fly.
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If he definitely runs imo it is,but not while the Jewson remains a possibilty.
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Do you think Mr Pipe will have learned anything from Grand Crus last year. The RSA can be a brutal race for a Novice and I'm only guessing but I think last years RSA might have taken a lot out of Grand Crus and been the reason he's not really fulfilled his potetnial this year.
Just a theory but I'm sure it'll have been a consideration in which race Dynaste goes for. |
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I've backed for jewson just got a sneaky feeling it could go that waybyet
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I agree - Dynaste, but only if its goes Jewson. If they go RSA then neither. Both ridiculously short!
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i took the plunge and backed dynaste for the jewson earlier in the week, he could win the RSA but imo the jewson is better in the long term for the horse, hope dave sees it this way as well 8-1 will look a pretty tasty price, and goin in the jewson did SDC no harm
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Jewson is a better race though,RSA would be easier for him to win imo.
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prob done me doe in all fairness
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The jewson is a far more attractive proposition for a horse to run in, long before the jewson ever existed the RSA had long since had a stigma attached to it with regards to damaging horses going forward.
If a trainer is in any doubt as to their horses capabilities of handling it in their novice year then the jewson provides the interim gentler stepping stone toward next years gold cup,for me the RSA doesn't really hold the kudos that an arkle does, so there isn't really any great need to run in it and if like in this case you've been stung recently by (maybe) the race knackering your horse, then there's every reason to avoid it. |
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I actually think Dynaste for the RSA is the banker of the meeting should he turn up. Much more solid than HF as less challengers IMO and I also think he's more certain than Quevega this year. She seems to have a lot more qualified challengers this year and we may see her have a go at the World Hurdle. Why on earth would they enter her for the WH unless they were unsure? Maybe I'm way off the mark!!
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Mullins has said quevega goes for the mares.
The reason for wh entry is surely if she falls at the first - or maybe runs twice (but I don't really see two runs) Don't look any deeper |
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Dynaste is the banker in RSA NOT to win. He'll be doing a Grands Crus and crying enough at the business end. Hasn't ran this calendar year like the last 49 winners of this, no Feltham winner has ever won the RSA, he's french bred who have poor records...and people want to take 9/4. Oh dear....
Hurricane Fly has a good chance. |
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Just to be clear, I have not backed Dynaste, as I don't back AP at these prices. However, I feel he is better value than HF and Quevega.
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Prefer Dynaste for the Jewson, especially at the prices, but the RSA is looking a particularly weak race this year.
Unlike Grand Crus, Dynaste was doing all his best work at the end of the Feltham. Wouldn't be interested in backing him at 9/4, but if he shows up in the RSA I think he could well be a stats buster. |
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None of the prices are remotely attractive but I think Dynaste will win whichever race he goes for, just not a betting proposition.
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Sorry booster, you don't think 8s for Dynaste in Jewson is a good price if he knew he was going to run there?
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I think the jewson is weak, captain conan current fav. doesn't even stay the trip for heavens sake, Dynaste would be running all over them turning in.
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I'd actually have Aupcharlie as a very live threat to him in Jewson, though I still actually hope they persevere over 3M
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Dynaste would be running all over them turning in.
thats the way i see it aswell |
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fecking RP errors again
has the Jewson down as a Class 2 ffs it is a Grade 2 |
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Judo
may I ask you a question? I know that you are a very keen student of stats and trends with regards to working out races. What happens when on occasion you have this strong gut feeling for a horse in a race but in fancying him, it flies in the face of what the stats say about that race...would you go with your gut, your belief in what history tells you for that race, or a bit of both  ? |
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I'm not asking for myself, I'm just curious as to how you deal with it for whenever it happens to you?
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it's possible the trends could take a beating this year - lot's of runners not going on their ground or running at their distance this season, bloodbath for the formbook if it firms up.
Biggest stat buster of all time = Masterminded.  |
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my use of trends and stats for big festivals is designed to create short lists, the shorter the better
I tend to perk up and get interested in betting when you get short priced runners that not only fail to make the short list but that have very strong long term trends to over come like any punter I would find it hard to back anything I don't fancy myself but I will happily lay obvious shorties if the trends are against them despite strong market confidence - I find the market will ignore strong trends and allow horses to go off too short Gut feeling? errm, I tend to find that if I think hard enough I can work out why I have a feeling then decide whether it is really something significant or not. I am 99% of the time a 'ratings' man. I watch performances and look at ratings awarded for them and make judgement calls most of the time looking for what I call a 'significant' rating. It's just that for things like Cheltenham and Aintree with long established trends I have found that you can improve your edge by using trends along side the ratings analysis |
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have trends become more mainstream now with the value of them already 'priced in' to some degree?
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they weren't last year
if they had been then Grands Crus would not have been anywhere near favourite |
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Roobuck, the thread says 9-4 Pipe's horse. Obviously 8- 1 would be a fabulous price if you knew he was going for the shorter race but this thread isn't about that.
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You said he wasn't a betting proposition whichever race he went for, that's all.
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Hurricane Fly is a shocking price in my eyes, for the simple fact that even if last year he was below form (highly questionable anyway), his very best form only puts him a few pounds ahead of his main rivals.
He can run as little as 3 or 4lb below his best and lose this year without any of the others necessarily improving, whereas on form (ignoring the stats angle) the same could not be said for Dynaste. Quevega is usually a free money card because she's been able to run upwards of a stone below her best and still win. Her prices have been incredibly generous when you think of it like that! She still has a good cushion this year but it's not quite as great with the likes of Unaccompanied in there. |
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iF YOU ARE BACKING hURRICANE THIS YEAR YOU ARE BANKING ON FACT HE WASNT RIGHT LAST YEAR BIG ASSUMPTION TO MAKE IN MY OPINION
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Why the shouting?
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he was ridden in a way that proved a disadvantage in a race where the pace bias favoured those racing on and close to the pace (HF)
don't get me wrong I am against the Fly but I would not use last year's CH to argue against him he does not need exaggerated waiting tactics but Walsh chose to employ them on that occasion and by the time he made his move the front runners were beyond recall pace profile is particularly difficult to read again this year, who is going to lead and at what pace? could easily be steady early and a sprint from 2 out |
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If Dynaste was 9/4 in the Jewson I'd be all over him....can't be with him in the RSA though
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Roobuck, he's not a betting proposition in the shorter race because it looks like he's going for the 3 mile race. Otherwise he'd obviously be the value of the festival.
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That's the thing though bluebirdfan, you can get 4-1 for the Jewson with Bat Vector and if he doesn't run they'll give you the stake back as a free bet to put on something else at the meeting.
It's a great bet I think! |
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^
That IS an absolute fantastic bet. |
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it's £50 max
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Much prefer 4/1 for the RSA!!!
 Dont seem to be much competition in that race,whereas the Jewson imo has. |
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I'm on Dynaste for the RSA at 8/1 (backed him before the Newbury run). Have layed off my stake plus a drink at 3.55...
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