Cheltenham Festival
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13 Feb 13
16:16
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Date Joined:
09 Sep 03
Just 27 remain for this
P12/123- ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
234-F211 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 10 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
U212-15 CUE CARD 7 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
213-125 FOR NON STOP (IRE) 8 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Nick Williams
460-133 GHIZAO (GER) 9 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls
1114-P3P GRANDS CRUS (FR) 8 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
1/13-1106 HIDDEN CYCLONE (IRE) 8 Mrs A F Mee & David Mee John Hanlon IRE
5/6P00-1FP LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 11 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
22211//4-5 MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8 Patrick Atkinson Tom George
F314-313 MENORAH (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
01//13P/4 MR GARDNER (IRE) 10 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin Hughes Polly Gundry
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
21/11P-6 RIVERSIDE THEATRE 9 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
0-511112 ROI DU MEE (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
2154-32 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 8 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
121-1111 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 11 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
224102-3 SOMERSBY (IRE) 9 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
1/35/1-50 TATANIANO (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
345P-22P WALKON (FR) 8 McNeill Family Alan King
F25-2141 WISHFULL THINKING 10 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
2144U0- ZAYNAR (FR) 8 Men In Our Position David Pipe
Cue Card (5), First Lieutenant (6), Finians Rainbow (7), Sizing Europe (15/2), Riverside Theatre (10), Champion Court (14), Menorah (14), China Rock (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20), Rubi Light (20), Call The Police (25), Somersby (25), Wishfull Thinking (25)
P12/123- ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
234-F211 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 10 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
U212-15 CUE CARD 7 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
213-125 FOR NON STOP (IRE) 8 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Nick Williams
460-133 GHIZAO (GER) 9 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls
1114-P3P GRANDS CRUS (FR) 8 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
1/13-1106 HIDDEN CYCLONE (IRE) 8 Mrs A F Mee & David Mee John Hanlon IRE
5/6P00-1FP LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 11 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
22211//4-5 MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8 Patrick Atkinson Tom George
F314-313 MENORAH (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
01//13P/4 MR GARDNER (IRE) 10 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin Hughes Polly Gundry
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
21/11P-6 RIVERSIDE THEATRE 9 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
0-511112 ROI DU MEE (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
2154-32 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 8 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
121-1111 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 11 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
224102-3 SOMERSBY (IRE) 9 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
1/35/1-50 TATANIANO (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
345P-22P WALKON (FR) 8 McNeill Family Alan King
F25-2141 WISHFULL THINKING 10 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
2144U0- ZAYNAR (FR) 8 Men In Our Position David Pipe
Cue Card (5), First Lieutenant (6), Finians Rainbow (7), Sizing Europe (15/2), Riverside Theatre (10), Champion Court (14), Menorah (14), China Rock (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20), Rubi Light (20), Call The Police (25), Somersby (25), Wishfull Thinking (25)
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© bland82 who looked at this race before using stats to help guide towards a selection (not everyones cup of tea) and listed these positive and negatives below.....
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup.
+ Contested the King George.
+ Proven at this trip and further.
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form.
- Unfancied in the betting.
- Top rated on BHA figures.
- Peterborough Chase winner.
- Rated lower than 156.
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup.
+ Contested the King George.
+ Proven at this trip and further.
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form.
- Unfancied in the betting.
- Top rated on BHA figures.
- Peterborough Chase winner.
- Rated lower than 156.
No stats to go on for this race m8,only been a grade 1 a few years,I think this years King George will be a negative for any race.
2007 Taranis 6 11-0 R Walsh 9/2 (Paul Nicholls)
2008 Our Vic 10 11-10 T J Murphy 4-1 (D Pipe)
2009 Imperial Commander 8 11-10 P J Brennan 6/1 (N A Twiston-Davies)
2010 Albertas Run 9 11-10 A P McCoy 14/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2011 Albertas Run 10 11-10 A P McCoy 6/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2012
1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
2nd ½L Albertas Run (IRE) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 10/1 Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
3rd ½L Medermit (FR) 11-10 Rated 165 SP 8/1 A King R Thornton
2008 Our Vic 10 11-10 T J Murphy 4-1 (D Pipe)
2009 Imperial Commander 8 11-10 P J Brennan 6/1 (N A Twiston-Davies)
2010 Albertas Run 9 11-10 A P McCoy 14/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2011 Albertas Run 10 11-10 A P McCoy 6/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2012
1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
2nd ½L Albertas Run (IRE) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 10/1 Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
3rd ½L Medermit (FR) 11-10 Rated 165 SP 8/1 A King R Thornton
its always been contested by grade 1 chasers though
Well i can't see past the first four in betting.
I am on FL @10s but Sizing Europe a classy horse
I am on FL @10s but Sizing Europe a classy horse
its the hardest race of the festival to call imo at the moment bar the handicaps you could give a chance to 8 or 9 of them
Its a no bet race for me until we know the final decs/ground but Sizing Europe is the class horse and most likely winner imo.
The Orish are yet to win this, being 0-24 so far.....
A strong challenge again this year with Sizing Europe (3 wins in Chelt), Rubi Light and possibly First Lieutenant (for sponsor Michael).
A strong challenge again this year with Sizing Europe (3 wins in Chelt), Rubi Light and possibly First Lieutenant (for sponsor Michael).
Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him. 
© bland82 (in 2012 before he won).
© bland82 (in 2012 before he won).
The Ryanair was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a Grade 2 chase over 2M 5F and became a Grade 1 chase in 2008.
This will be its 6th year as a Grade 1.
This seasons King George VI Chase (Grade 1) finishers fwiw....
1st Long Run Nicky Henderson Mr S Waley-Cohen
2nd nk Captain Chris P J Hobbs R Johnson
3rd 14L Grands Crus D E Pipe T Scudamore
4th 2 ½L Champion Court M Keighley A P Cawley
5th 3 ¼L Cue Card C L Tizzard J Tizzard
6th 7L Riverside Theatre Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
This will be its 6th year as a Grade 1.
This seasons King George VI Chase (Grade 1) finishers fwiw....
1st Long Run Nicky Henderson Mr S Waley-Cohen
2nd nk Captain Chris P J Hobbs R Johnson
3rd 14L Grands Crus D E Pipe T Scudamore
4th 2 ½L Champion Court M Keighley A P Cawley
5th 3 ¼L Cue Card C L Tizzard J Tizzard
6th 7L Riverside Theatre Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
Diva,
He has 23L to find with FL since the Lexus lto and god knows how many to find with Sizing (whom he beat in Oct.2010 in a Grade 3).
BofL.
He has 23L to find with FL since the Lexus lto and god knows how many to find with Sizing (whom he beat in Oct.2010 in a Grade 3).
BofL.
Cue Card (5), First Lieutenant (11/2), Finians Rainbow (7), Sizing Europe (15/2), Riverside Theatre (10), Sir Des Champs (10), Champion Court (12), Menorah (14), China Rock (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20), Rubi Light (20), Albertas Run (25), Call The Police (25), Somersby (25), Wishfull Thinking (25), Hidden Cyclone (33), Quel Esprit (33), Ghizao (40), Mail De Bievre (40)
GoldCupWinner 14 Feb 13 18:28 Finians Rainbow for me in this one.
And what happens with last years winner !
Will FR wait for Aintee ?
2012 1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
And what happens with last years winner !
Will FR wait for Aintee ?
2012 1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
I'm fairly sure Michael Buckley has said before QM or GC, not interested in the Ryanair for Finians Rainbow
Not sure about RT and won't be backing him anywhere he goes after his last two runs. I guess I'd back Sizing Europe if Finians is absent even if it is slightly be default.
Unless Cue Card proves he says tomorrow that is!
With so many doubts about participation here, I believe you have to bet on something you know will run all being well. So, ignoring their last runs I have gone for Champion Court 14/1 and For Non Stop 20/1 both EW. Must be a lot shorter come the day if as expected the race cuts up.
Sizing Europe hasn't looked anywhere near as good as he was and last year's Queen Mother was a desperate race by recent standards. I'd much rather have an up and coming horse like First Lieutenant or Menorah for this race.
Still think this is a dangerous race to bet in. Only 2 horses have this race confirmed as their target.
I'd side with FR if he runs well tomorrow, but it all depends what the owner wants to do.
I'd side with FR if he runs well tomorrow, but it all depends what the owner wants to do.
First Lieutenant for me. Lots of others with ? beside their name on this season's running.
Agree lots of decisions to be made but if he runs, FL for me as well - dont care what else turns up.
ive constantly said this race is the hardest to call not knowing who will turn up etc, still not entirely confident but i did have a small wager on FL earlier in the week, a few intended runners running at ascot this weekend so will watch that 1st before deciding if i put some more on FL or i see something that makes me think otherwise
I fancy Captain Chris to win tomorrow if the ground remains soft but still he wasn't good enough to win the race last year. Could be dangerous to overlook Alberta's Run. RT Hasn't looked the same since his hard race last year. Medermit is not in it this year and he was well ahead of the rest last year. Just have to guess how much ability he retains at 12.
There is £933 looking to get matched at 10.5 on Sizng Europe whereas there is only buttons trying to get matched on the QM - does that suggest the Ryanair is it's target? Seems a lot of money to want on a horse that might not run?
Cue Card (4), First Lieutenant (11/2), Sizing Europe (7), Riverside Theatre (8), Champion Court (10), Menorah (12), Finians Rainbow (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20)
Cue Card did it well at the weekend as is into 4's
Cue Card did it well at the weekend as is into 4's
Sizing Europe's form has been regressing since last spring and he's made hard work of beating some decent sorts in Ireland over the winter. I'd say this will take more winning than last year's Queen Mother and can't really see him still being good enough.
Just keeping my eye on Ghizao here who stayed on well behind Cue Card and Captain Chris on Saturday, would look for the ground to be a bit firmer at the festival, but think it's a fair price. Can anyone see Ruby getting a ride on anything else if it goes?
Further franking of the Menorah form but not really a contender for the Ryanair.
which in turn franks the Cue Card form. How exactly is Menorah going to make up the 22 lengths he was behind in the Arkle and the 34 lengths in the Haldon?
To start with, his jumping is clearly better now than it was last season. Secondly, Cue Card won't get an easy lead like he did last season and on Saturday. Thirdly, I think the ground will be better in March and that clearly helps him. Fourthly, the trip will be different. And possibly the most important is that he'll probably go for the Queen Mother so Menorah won't have to turn the form round. There are only 9 left in that and some trainers are going to look and see that there's a lot of place money for turning up in a race which may not have much depth apart from the favourite and you'll really need to see the Ryanair trip out to win.
As I said earlier in the thread, I'd rather have Menorah to place at similar odds for Cue Card to win.
As I said earlier in the thread, I'd rather have Menorah to place at similar odds for Cue Card to win.
Well if they both turn up,Cue Card will beat Menorah i would think,hes a lot better horse.Well looks a lot better to me anyway,and their form albeit over shorter seems to imply that.
Cue Card stays 2m 4 ok,1 more furlong i think he will be ok too.
Cue Card stays 2m 4 ok,1 more furlong i think he will be ok too.
Colin tizzards interview post race on saturday suggested that he's rather concerned with him running in the ryanair, he thought he never had much left to fight off captain chris with if needed, and that's coming from a usual optimist, I hope he runs in the queen mum for the good of the race, easy for me to say, but think that ther is a fair chance he will after listening to tizzard, ( he did also say that joe thought there was more there
, but added that joe always says that sort of thing) 
, but added that joe always says that sort of thing)
apart from Cue Card not turning up, none of what you say gives any hope that he can reverse the form and is riddled with assumptions. CC is better going left handed and on better going, there is nothing to say he has to have a soft lead at all. CC will run in the Ryan Air and unless accidents happen he will finish in front of Menorah (JT riding like a tit is an accident that could happen)
any other decision will be laughable
don't get me wrong I applaud your approach, looking for angles and value prices. Absolutely spot on. Just in this case, and it's only my opinion, Menorah has very little chance of beating CC. Of course, you do have that chance that they go mad and decide to turn up to play for second place in the QM for the easy money. I wouldn't hold my breath though.
Going to be fascinating, hope they all turn up
FWIW all this 'Cue Card doesn't stay' is complete bollox imo based on very little. The KG was a write off from the first fence and then what else is there to say he does not stay? Not much. I think he is going to do what Sizing Europe did when he won the QMCC '11
any other decision will be laughable
don't get me wrong I applaud your approach, looking for angles and value prices. Absolutely spot on. Just in this case, and it's only my opinion, Menorah has very little chance of beating CC. Of course, you do have that chance that they go mad and decide to turn up to play for second place in the QM for the easy money. I wouldn't hold my breath though.
Going to be fascinating, hope they all turn up
FWIW all this 'Cue Card doesn't stay' is complete bollox imo based on very little. The KG was a write off from the first fence and then what else is there to say he does not stay? Not much. I think he is going to do what Sizing Europe did when he won the QMCC '11
Of course, you do have that chance that they go mad and decide to turn up to play for second place in the QM for the easy money
Running for 2nd in Ryanair anyway - might a swell go for the better race
Running for 2nd in Ryanair anyway - might a swell go for the better race
I'd agree that the King George run didn't prove he doesn't stay as he was beaten before stamina bacame an issue but does run a bit with the choke out and his best runs over fences have certainly been when he's led. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he won the Ryanair but the job of a punter is to find value, bookies know who the most likely winners are and make them favourites.
that's why we bet ante post! To get better prices. It all depends what true chance you think each runner has. That is what we are all doing isn't it? Comparing the odds available and our interpretation of what the true chances are. This is why people value true inside information so highly (I don't but it is something you hear 'straight from the horses mouth') - they think the true chance is much better than the odds suggest.
FWIW, if they lined up as predicted (9 to 11 runners as in your post) tomorrow I would make CC 2/1 fav. As I say, on my ratings he is 8lbs clear and I expect significant improvement. The only reason the price is holding up is the doubt over participation.
FWIW, if they lined up as predicted (9 to 11 runners as in your post) tomorrow I would make CC 2/1 fav. As I say, on my ratings he is 8lbs clear and I expect significant improvement. The only reason the price is holding up is the doubt over participation.
Out of interest on what runs do you make him 8lb clear? The arkle and Haldon I'm guessing? I wouldn't have him 8lb clear based on the ascot run given the proximity of CC (pre error) and Somersby who were both well beaten in the race last year.
FR - Barry on atr live now - do not write him off IF he gets his ground - running on **** ground so far and has the option to defend his crown !
Cue Card (7/2), First Lieutenant (4), Riverside Theatre (6), Sizing Europe (6), Champion Court (8), Menorah (8), Albertas Run (14), Finians Rainbow (16), For Non Stop (16), Ghizao (33), Walkon (40)
Been a little move for Peterborough Chase winner Menorah.
Been a little move for Peterborough Chase winner Menorah.
What is the latest with Albertas run? Assume he will run if its soft? I backed him a while ago on the basis that the race might cut up a bit. I have an e/w bet at 20s. Was mainly because I thought the place element was too big. Looks like there might only be 9 declared.
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