Cheltenham Festival
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13 Feb 13
13:31
Joined:
Date Joined:
09 Sep 03
A possible 24 remain.....in 2013
1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson
F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson
U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis
2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott
4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater
Bobs Worth (3), Silviniaco Conti (5), Sir Des Champs (5), Long Run (7), First Lieutenant (12), Imperial Commander (20), The Giant Bolster (20)
1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson
F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson
U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis
2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott
4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater
Bobs Worth (3), Silviniaco Conti (5), Sir Des Champs (5), Long Run (7), First Lieutenant (12), Imperial Commander (20), The Giant Bolster (20)
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Glad to see Bog Warrior still in.
Have him at nice odds to win(nrnb) and place on here at 55.
Also have him for the WH,which is more likely i would think,but good to see they are still thinking about GC.
Have him at nice odds to win(nrnb) and place on here at 55.
Also have him for the WH,which is more likely i would think,but good to see they are still thinking about GC.
What about china rock? This is a gold cup thread!!!
I thought there was still a chance he'd be running in the GC. Was hoping so.
Yeah, you kinda missed my point. Which was - no chance of winning. Sorry!
Yes, no chance of winning. But should I fancy a bet in the GC I'd have had him for a place.
Looks like he'll be in the Ryanair, anyway.
Looks like he'll be in the Ryanair, anyway.
buddeliea 14 Feb 13 12:12
Well i can see why hes a contender (SDC),but every time i watch him i just aint all that impressed to be honest.
When i watch Bobsworth i am,its just gut feeling i guess.
Had the Lexus been over 3m2 i think Tidal Bay would have romped it,and he aint considered good enough to take part,or at least his trainer thinks he cannot beat S Conti.
Its dangerous to dismiss horses,but im going with Bob and SC to fight it out.
johntucker 14 Feb 13 12:18
That's fair enough Budd, you can't pick them all!
For me it's between SDC & BW with SDC winning. I think Conti may get found out over the trip while Long Run will be staying on but may be doing so from too far back.
Just hope they all make it now.
SDC was staying on well in the Lexus as well no?
Well i can see why hes a contender (SDC),but every time i watch him i just aint all that impressed to be honest.
When i watch Bobsworth i am,its just gut feeling i guess.
Had the Lexus been over 3m2 i think Tidal Bay would have romped it,and he aint considered good enough to take part,or at least his trainer thinks he cannot beat S Conti.
Its dangerous to dismiss horses,but im going with Bob and SC to fight it out.
johntucker 14 Feb 13 12:18
That's fair enough Budd, you can't pick them all!
For me it's between SDC & BW with SDC winning. I think Conti may get found out over the trip while Long Run will be staying on but may be doing so from too far back.
Just hope they all make it now.
SDC was staying on well in the Lexus as well no?
Bobs Worth (10/3), Silviniaco Conti (5), Sir Des Champs (5), Long Run (7), First Lieutenant (16), Imperial Commander (20), The Giant Bolster (20), Captain Chris (25), Katenko (25), Cape Tribulation (33), China Rock (50)
The Willie Mullins-trained Sir Des Champs, victorious in the Hennessy earlier this month, is the second-favourite for the race while First Lieutenant finished second behind Tidal Bay in the Lexus at Christmas and is available at 12/1.
Walsh, however, believes his mount, the Paul Nicholls-trained Silviniaco Conti, is a more likely winner of jump racing’s blue riband.
The Irish Examiner columnist believes Sir Des Champs hasn’t been the same horse since making a last-fence error at Punchestown last April.
The Gigginstown horse survived the scare to win that race but Walsh reckons it left a mark.
Walsh said: “He went to Punchestown and halved the last, nearly fell and he hasn’t looked the same horse jumping since. I think he’s gone a bit careful.
“They hacked along in the Hennessy and he got a chance to get into a rhythm. I think when they come out in the Gold Cup, he won’t be in that comfort zone.”
Assessing First Lieutenant, Walsh said: “He’s missing something. The Lexus presented itself to him, he got back past Flemenstar yet he folded up. The race was there for him. I think the Irish horses have to improve a good bit.”
Silviniaco Conti is currently the third favourite for the Gold Cup and Walsh believes he has the credentials to win the race.
“I like him, I really like him. I thought he won well at Wetherby [in the Charlie Hall]. I thought he was very good in Haydock [in the Betfair Chase].
“People say, ‘He got first run on Long Run and he needed the run and you’d had a run’. It’s the same with anything. If you want to pick holes in something you can. The form is there if you want to go and look at it.
“He’s mature, he’s only seven, he’s a brilliant jumper, he’s a good traveller, he’ll stay, I think he has everything.”
Bobs Worth is the current favourite for the Gold Cup but Walsh feels he too has his flaws.
Walsh said: “Bobs Worth definitely lacks a gear even though he stays.”
Walsh, however, believes his mount, the Paul Nicholls-trained Silviniaco Conti, is a more likely winner of jump racing’s blue riband.
The Irish Examiner columnist believes Sir Des Champs hasn’t been the same horse since making a last-fence error at Punchestown last April.
The Gigginstown horse survived the scare to win that race but Walsh reckons it left a mark.
Walsh said: “He went to Punchestown and halved the last, nearly fell and he hasn’t looked the same horse jumping since. I think he’s gone a bit careful.
“They hacked along in the Hennessy and he got a chance to get into a rhythm. I think when they come out in the Gold Cup, he won’t be in that comfort zone.”
Assessing First Lieutenant, Walsh said: “He’s missing something. The Lexus presented itself to him, he got back past Flemenstar yet he folded up. The race was there for him. I think the Irish horses have to improve a good bit.”
Silviniaco Conti is currently the third favourite for the Gold Cup and Walsh believes he has the credentials to win the race.
“I like him, I really like him. I thought he won well at Wetherby [in the Charlie Hall]. I thought he was very good in Haydock [in the Betfair Chase].
“People say, ‘He got first run on Long Run and he needed the run and you’d had a run’. It’s the same with anything. If you want to pick holes in something you can. The form is there if you want to go and look at it.
“He’s mature, he’s only seven, he’s a brilliant jumper, he’s a good traveller, he’ll stay, I think he has everything.”
Bobs Worth is the current favourite for the Gold Cup but Walsh feels he too has his flaws.
Walsh said: “Bobs Worth definitely lacks a gear even though he stays.”
what Silviniaco does not have is any chase experience at Cheltenham nor any Festival experience of any kind. This is a major negative for me. Also did not run in the Lexus or King George which have provided the Gold Cup winner in the last 13 renewals.
He's a negative for me
He's a negative for me
Agreed..This report is in contrast with what Rub said last week when saying the extra 2 1/2 f at chelt will be right up SDC's street and therefore is a major player!
His one hurdle run was decent enough at Cheltenham, conceding weight to Cue Card and Menorah over a trip which now looks too short. I don't believe last years winner had any cheltenham chase experience either so it's not the be all and end all. Especially since it seems Nicholls is not all too keen on the RSA now.
I am pocket talking as my money is already on :D
I am pocket talking as my money is already on :D
I was more disheartened with Ruby's comment last week when he said S Conti did get tired but Paul assured him there was more improvement to come which suggested he thought he needed to improve. I wish he'd make up his mind.
just pointing out the negatives that Ruby did not mention when he was knocking every body else and bigging up his own mount
and never having had a chase at Chelters, never ran at the Festival and did run in the two biggest GC trials are all negatives that have to be remembered. Remains to be seen how significant they will be in the end
and never having had a chase at Chelters, never ran at the Festival and did run in the two biggest GC trials are all negatives that have to be remembered. Remains to be seen how significant they will be in the end
Think the horse has an awful lot going for him.
Trainers given him the perfect prep and will be spot on now,thats pretty much a certainty.
Hes got the best jockey he could wish for.
Hes still young and improving as well i would think.
Will lack of chases at Cheltenham affect him,well yes it could well do.
Feeling overall is hes better value than the Fav,mainly due to his prep against Bobs prep.
Think these 2 will be the main players.
Trainers given him the perfect prep and will be spot on now,thats pretty much a certainty.
Hes got the best jockey he could wish for.
Hes still young and improving as well i would think.
Will lack of chases at Cheltenham affect him,well yes it could well do.
Feeling overall is hes better value than the Fav,mainly due to his prep against Bobs prep.
Think these 2 will be the main players.
I think S Conti has the best form to date which is why I thought he was value. I do agree I would have preferred he had ran a chase at Cheltenham but then I doubt he would be same price if he had (and won of course). I'm not convinced winning the Haydock chase is too big a negative given some of the circumstances. Kauto has done the double, then unseated at the last when probably would have done the double. Imperial commander was only a nose away too, looked like he had won to me.
I agree Budd, I fancied Bobsworth strongly but now he's missed a prep I won't be backing him at the price. He's still an obvious danger as is SDC.
I agree Budd, I fancied Bobsworth strongly but now he's missed a prep I won't be backing him at the price. He's still an obvious danger as is SDC.
several horses have a lot going for them
it's a question of balancing the pros and cons against each other
Ruby mentioned all the pros about his horse, I was just pointing out the cons
it's a question of balancing the pros and cons against each other
Ruby mentioned all the pros about his horse, I was just pointing out the cons
My two against the field are Sir Des Champs and Long Run, I'm negative on everything else for various reasons
and I won't be backing LR due to the two negatives (trying to regain title; placed last year)
Not quite as strong on SDC as I was last year on the Sprinter but nearly. Good ground would increase my confidence
Mark Miwordz 5/1 is fecking massive odds
and I won't be backing LR due to the two negatives (trying to regain title; placed last year)
Not quite as strong on SDC as I was last year on the Sprinter but nearly. Good ground would increase my confidence
Mark Miwordz 5/1 is fecking massive odds
Where does ruby get the notion that BW lacks a gear from, he's been beat twice, once when he couldn't breathe, and then when coming back from the breathing op and won everything else, one of those wins being against cue card over an inadequate trip where he picked him up on the run in, with looked like a nice bit of toe, bobs worth is by no means an out and out grinder, he travels very easily through his races and goes away from his field at the end.
I've a gut feeling that SC will turn out to be a flat track horse, also, we keep hearing that he's not flashy in his jumping and just gets it done, I'd be concerned that on an undulating track like cheltenham he might clout the odd fence through not giving it enough air, interestingly there was one fence last time where he looked like to consciously give one a bit of air.....he right ballooned it, the zero track chase form has to be a big negative.
as is 'never ran at the Festival'
we are reminded by the results at the meeting every year, that Festival form is very important - SC has none = negative
we are reminded by the results at the meeting every year, that Festival form is very important - SC has none = negative
Have to admit got to be a concern that he seemed to underperform at Chepstow, although it was also his debut. Feeling more worried than when I placed the bet but no going back now.
If the ground comes up on the soft side then i would certainly add Long Run to the equation,decent ground i would not have him at all.
Im sticking my neck out as re SDC and saying he aint winning a Gold Cup,just looking at him this season i aint impressed to be honest.Of course better ground could make those words look silly,but there yer go,have to make the mind up sooner or later.
Im sticking my neck out as re SDC and saying he aint winning a Gold Cup,just looking at him this season i aint impressed to be honest.Of course better ground could make those words look silly,but there yer go,have to make the mind up sooner or later.
well that's you and me on the opposite side of the fence AGAIN then Budd 
because as I've said he is a perfect candidate for the race
let's see who comes out on top this time
5/1 IS fecking massive I'm telling you. You still doubt me when I tell you these things
because as I've said he is a perfect candidate for the race
let's see who comes out on top this time
5/1 IS fecking massive I'm telling you. You still doubt me when I tell you these things
To be honest judo,if its ground that suits SDC then with his course form hes obviously a player,and could prove me wrong to dismis him from my thoughts.Not sure 5/1 is massive on what weve seen this season,but recognise it could look massive after the race!!
I have thought a lot about all the candidates and seen all their repective races,and thats what ive decided.
Youve done me before mate,you will do so again,just hope not on this one!!
I'm as sure on this as I was on Sprinter Sacre
the only difference being the difference in the degree of superiority. As you know I had SS at least 10lb clear with a very large P. SDC does not have anywhere near that margin of superiority but that's why he's 5/1 not odds on. But the analysis is just as clear and he has had by far the best prep and is set to improve more than any other horse for the better going and longer trip.
Of course, it is only my analysis so take it or leave it
the only difference being the difference in the degree of superiority. As you know I had SS at least 10lb clear with a very large P. SDC does not have anywhere near that margin of superiority but that's why he's 5/1 not odds on. But the analysis is just as clear and he has had by far the best prep and is set to improve more than any other horse for the better going and longer trip.
Of course, it is only my analysis so take it or leave it
Was just gonna ask you what was wrong with the prep of Sconti,but of course he did not run in the KG or the Lexus,so i know your answer.
As you know that dont bother me,and i think SC has been bought along nicely this season and with Nicholls i know he will be spot on come the day.
They are similar prices,and i reckon if you did a survey on the chances of these 2,i suspect a 50/50 ish split would be fairly likely.
As you know that dont bother me,and i think SC has been bought along nicely this season and with Nicholls i know he will be spot on come the day.
They are similar prices,and i reckon if you did a survey on the chances of these 2,i suspect a 50/50 ish split would be fairly likely.
The main thing is he has no negatives at all apart from qualitative ones like people saying 'I think he had a scare when he fell' and that sort of stuff. But on the substantial stuff in terms of prep he does not miss a single significant factor.
And on my spreadsheet, every other runner misses at least one (and often more) key trends. Second is Long Run and third Silviniaco Conti. Very good chance one of those three will win
And on my spreadsheet, every other runner misses at least one (and often more) key trends. Second is Long Run and third Silviniaco Conti. Very good chance one of those three will win
Not ONLY not ran in the KG or Lexus
but ALSO has never run in a chase at Cheltenham AND has never run at the Festival
so that's 3 significant negatives and makes him much less likely IF those trends prove significant.
That is the whole game: determine what IS or IS NOT significant
but ALSO has never run in a chase at Cheltenham AND has never run at the Festival
so that's 3 significant negatives and makes him much less likely IF those trends prove significant.
That is the whole game: determine what IS or IS NOT significant
^
and he's still ahead of BW who has two festival wins and won the hennessy on the snaff, I remember now why I don't pay attention to trends.!
and he's still ahead of BW who has two festival wins and won the hennessy on the snaff, I remember now why I don't pay attention to trends.!
it's the long lay off and all that that puts BW behind, only one run etc etc
and there is nothing to say that this interpretation is not extremely accurate
just because you fancy BW, it does not make the trends invalid
you might possibly be able to make that statement after the race IF BW wins, until then you know no more than anyone else so your assumption that the trends are worthless is just that - an assumption
what will you say if the finishing order is:
1. SDC
2. Long Run
3. Silviniaco Conti
which it very well could be
and there is nothing to say that this interpretation is not extremely accurate
just because you fancy BW, it does not make the trends invalid
you might possibly be able to make that statement after the race IF BW wins, until then you know no more than anyone else so your assumption that the trends are worthless is just that - an assumption
what will you say if the finishing order is:
1. SDC
2. Long Run
3. Silviniaco Conti
which it very well could be
BWs 1 run is a major blow,and SCs season thus far has been 3 races in small fields,turning into a few laps of honour.For me SDC has advertised what a GC winner is all about,and i will be amazed if he isn't fav on the big day
This is something I have come across often:
"A set of trends indicate something opposite to what I happen to personally hold to be true. Therefore, all trends are not worth paying attention to"
Does that about sum it up?
When will people start to think that the application of trends to horse race analysis is a tool, a method, a way of getting an angle on a race or set of races? All this 'I don't agree with the trends for this particular race so I think all trends are carp' stuff ignores the fact that long held trends stand up year in year out and the use of them is just a betting strategy of which there are many.
Why do people get so narked? Baffles me
Let's see what happens huh?
"A set of trends indicate something opposite to what I happen to personally hold to be true. Therefore, all trends are not worth paying attention to"
Does that about sum it up?
When will people start to think that the application of trends to horse race analysis is a tool, a method, a way of getting an angle on a race or set of races? All this 'I don't agree with the trends for this particular race so I think all trends are carp' stuff ignores the fact that long held trends stand up year in year out and the use of them is just a betting strategy of which there are many.
Why do people get so narked? Baffles me
Let's see what happens huh?
My problem with this race is none of the runners are rock solid and all have large negatives to go with their positives.
Bobs - Missed prep, inexperienced, small for chaser
Sir Des - has not had a solid win in his career that screams Gold Cup winner, all potential
Sil Conti - flat track, small fields, untested over fences at Chelts.
Long Run - Jumping blunders, idles, inexperienced jockey
First L - beat by Bobs twice last year.
Cap Chris - Can't go left handed, prob wont stay trip
TGB - Not good enough, 2nd last year in farcical race
IC - Too old and too slow now, should have gone national
China Rock - Prob won't stay trip
Katenko - Handicapper
Cape Trib - Handicapper
Bobs - Missed prep, inexperienced, small for chaser
Sir Des - has not had a solid win in his career that screams Gold Cup winner, all potential
Sil Conti - flat track, small fields, untested over fences at Chelts.
Long Run - Jumping blunders, idles, inexperienced jockey
First L - beat by Bobs twice last year.
Cap Chris - Can't go left handed, prob wont stay trip
TGB - Not good enough, 2nd last year in farcical race
IC - Too old and too slow now, should have gone national
China Rock - Prob won't stay trip
Katenko - Handicapper
Cape Trib - Handicapper
judo how do your trends stand up when trainers go diferent routes with their horses, and how far do your trends go? thanks
BW missed the argento,but it wasn't an injury and was a full 7 weeks before the festival, don't know what effect it will have on him come the day, I'd chance it that it doesn't effect him, he's won 1st time up for the past 3 seasons so being fresh you can argue is an advantage to him, has twice won at the festival, doesn't look like it's an effort at all getting over the fences, is always strong at the end of his races stayed on well is a common note from his races, and as I said before, I thought he won at newbury easily, he's very solid to me.
Got a feeling that the narrative of this year's festival could be that horses who've been kept away from the heavy ground have a big advantage at the end of their races.
I too prefer SC to SDC, but the ground will likely play a major role as to how SDC runs though i think SC could improve even further for better ground than we have seen in the past.
BW i am not so sure about. He is too short and i have convinced myself he will not be going off fav'! I think that will be either SDC or LR! Yes Long Run!
BW won a hennessy well, yes but tidal bay was closing between the last 2 fences and was giving weight away, hardly a denman performance imo! He wont be winning a CGC and i think i am a layer at 10/3. Though for my book, if 9/2+ ever came to light, and i have said this before, he will be added.
Long Run really has a chance of placing, poss winning if SDC and SC can't. I have also been more impressed with SC than SDC but i can see where both arguments are coming from! Though wouldn't surprise me to see a shock winner this year either
!
For this race i have so far
Silviniaco Conti at 6/1
Captain Chris 25/1
Katenko 25/1
Imperial Commander 20/1
Cape Trib 33/1
Think i am waiting for the morning of the race before adding anything else, i.e SDC and LR as they cannot be much shorter on the day and someone will be putting the flags out with loads of offers etc!
BW i am not so sure about. He is too short and i have convinced myself he will not be going off fav'! I think that will be either SDC or LR! Yes Long Run!
BW won a hennessy well, yes but tidal bay was closing between the last 2 fences and was giving weight away, hardly a denman performance imo! He wont be winning a CGC and i think i am a layer at 10/3. Though for my book, if 9/2+ ever came to light, and i have said this before, he will be added.
Long Run really has a chance of placing, poss winning if SDC and SC can't. I have also been more impressed with SC than SDC but i can see where both arguments are coming from! Though wouldn't surprise me to see a shock winner this year either
! For this race i have so far
Silviniaco Conti at 6/1
Captain Chris 25/1
Katenko 25/1
Imperial Commander 20/1
Cape Trib 33/1
Think i am waiting for the morning of the race before adding anything else, i.e SDC and LR as they cannot be much shorter on the day and someone will be putting the flags out with loads of offers etc!
I'm not worried that S Conti didn't run in KG or Lexus given the trainer had the winner of the lexus and was gonna run S Conti over him anyway before the injury. Lets not forget he actually beat the KG winner this year too, and did it pretty comfrtably in the end in my book. Have to take it on trainers trust how fit Long Run was but I never believe a word that trainer says.
it certainly looks a competitive gold cup this year.
i've been a bobs worth supporter until he missed his intended prep. i really can not back a horse with only a single run in the current campaign to win a CGC.
i'm not convinced by the irish form this season. sir des is expected by many to step up and improve for the likely better ground and trip, and is their leading player, but i have never been taken by this horse.
i like to back second season chasers for this race as a rule but this year i am going to go against that rule. for the third season long run has been running to a very high standard and is a proven animal over the course and distance. last year at the bottom of the hill i thought he was sure to win his 2nd CGC but never picked up and finished a very flat 3rd. this year however he will be lining up a fresh horse like the season he won having missed the AON chase. i feel last seasons AON was a tough race and he left his gold cup at Newbury.
i think 7/1 is very generous value at the current prices.
i've been a bobs worth supporter until he missed his intended prep. i really can not back a horse with only a single run in the current campaign to win a CGC.
i'm not convinced by the irish form this season. sir des is expected by many to step up and improve for the likely better ground and trip, and is their leading player, but i have never been taken by this horse.
i like to back second season chasers for this race as a rule but this year i am going to go against that rule. for the third season long run has been running to a very high standard and is a proven animal over the course and distance. last year at the bottom of the hill i thought he was sure to win his 2nd CGC but never picked up and finished a very flat 3rd. this year however he will be lining up a fresh horse like the season he won having missed the AON chase. i feel last seasons AON was a tough race and he left his gold cup at Newbury.
i think 7/1 is very generous value at the current prices.
Only one horse has won the Gold Cup with less than 6 chase starts Duffy as you probably know.
Yeah...I took 9-2 way back along with 7-1 Sir Des Champs and 8-1 Conti but I cant have BW beating SDC at all now after this prep and will be getting out. I also don't think Conti will get home and see him as nailed on for 2013 King George
nailed on for 2013 King George
i,l tell you now whats nailed on for the king george AL FEROF
i,l tell you now whats nailed on for the king george AL FEROF
Or Dynaste? Shaping up to be the race of the year again.
Had a long study of this last night and came to one conclusion. Every time i looked at the race, i came to a surprising conclusion that surprised even me!
CAPTAIN CHRIS WILL WIN!
Quite often, horses struggle in their first seasons against the big boys and i really think CC was no exception. The run in the KG is top class and puts him right back into form. Ok he blundered away his chances lto against cue card, of which i would have been inclined to think he may have outstayed cue card had he not blundered that fence. You can argue that he doesn't jump well enough but, i've thought about this, in every race over fences he has competed in, he has never jumped better than any time he has raced at Cheltenham! Going strictly on his KG run, it is also obvious to me that the horse now wants every yard of the 3m2f of the gold cup trip and on better ground than he encountered in the KG, he will be there at the end!
He has won an Arkle, that stat alone is a massive one of CGC winners in their 2nd season as a chaser that 2 seasons prior ran well in the Arkle!
CAPTAIN CHRIS 20/1 GENERALLY, 25/1 WITH bet victor! Massive bet on this, everything else is for saving in my book he is the one to beat!
GL
CAPTAIN CHRIS WILL WIN!
Quite often, horses struggle in their first seasons against the big boys and i really think CC was no exception. The run in the KG is top class and puts him right back into form. Ok he blundered away his chances lto against cue card, of which i would have been inclined to think he may have outstayed cue card had he not blundered that fence. You can argue that he doesn't jump well enough but, i've thought about this, in every race over fences he has competed in, he has never jumped better than any time he has raced at Cheltenham! Going strictly on his KG run, it is also obvious to me that the horse now wants every yard of the 3m2f of the gold cup trip and on better ground than he encountered in the KG, he will be there at the end!
He has won an Arkle, that stat alone is a massive one of CGC winners in their 2nd season as a chaser that 2 seasons prior ran well in the Arkle!
CAPTAIN CHRIS 20/1 GENERALLY, 25/1 WITH bet victor! Massive bet on this, everything else is for saving in my book he is the one to beat!
GL
May i YET AGAIN ask, if you can back 12 horses in a 12 runner race at 14/1 or more, why wouldn't you?
How did he get beat in the King George?
Was he not outstayed over 3 miles on a flat track??
Was he not outstayed over 3 miles on a flat track??
Sounds like a surefire way of making money, unless the race is abandoned then you'd get your money back.
STS youve backed more horses in 2 races than i have for the whole festival so far
Fair enough STS, at least you're honest about your approach. I like the risk factor myself, but can understand why you might take an altenative angle.
I am taking the view of his being outstayed in KG as factoring in the ground conditions and it being his first run back this season! I just can't see past him.
It's the Arkle stat and the KG run that makes it for me!
He is a year stronger than the 3 'principals' and no horse accept the very special Kauto Star has retained a gold cup, cannot see that being repeated myself.
I am of the view that last years CGC was the weakest in years, TGB almost won it, finished an eventual 2nd but has done nothing since! Horses do not come back to their very very best from injury, which for me counts out Imperial Commander, although this does not effect his chances of placing.
What do we have left At 20/1, CAPTAIN CHRIS is just far too big, we all know what the 3 market leaders have done, all in their first years as a chaser too, not sure about that stat for first season chasers, am sure not a lot to read into that as probably a few have done it.
No one was more pleased than me to see LR getting back up in the KG but i do fancy CC will reverse those placings in the CGC this year! Sticking my neck out a bit but there you go. Although i may like to have most running for me, i do also like the battle of form book reading too as one cannot approach races at the cheltenham festival backing completely blindly!
It's the Arkle stat and the KG run that makes it for me!
He is a year stronger than the 3 'principals' and no horse accept the very special Kauto Star has retained a gold cup, cannot see that being repeated myself.
I am of the view that last years CGC was the weakest in years, TGB almost won it, finished an eventual 2nd but has done nothing since! Horses do not come back to their very very best from injury, which for me counts out Imperial Commander, although this does not effect his chances of placing.
What do we have left
At 20/1, CAPTAIN CHRIS is just far too big, we all know what the 3 market leaders have done, all in their first years as a chaser too, not sure about that stat for first season chasers, am sure not a lot to read into that as probably a few have done it.No one was more pleased than me to see LR getting back up in the KG but i do fancy CC will reverse those placings in the CGC this year! Sticking my neck out a bit but there you go. Although i may like to have most running for me, i do also like the battle of form book reading too as one cannot approach races at the cheltenham festival backing completely blindly!
Im in complete agreement with you STS on Captain Chris. And just to add , a lot has been said about this horse and going left handed ...to be fair he looked to have a problem with jumping to his right last season ,no great sign of that this year and another plus on this point is his only two wins going left handed were at Cheltenham. The second of which was his Arkle win where he fairly embraced the hill...With questions about most of his rivals 25/1 looks more than fair.
Obviously difficult to be dogmatic about his chance in the race but horses with his profile available at 25-1 will make you a long term profit almost ccertainly.
Personally, I think he's made for the Punchestown Gold Cup, slightly better right handed and on better ground although the ground's been pretty bad there recently. They won the race with Planet Of Sound 2 years ago and it must be on their radar and he's a class above most of the dross who usually frequent that race.
Personally, I think he's made for the Punchestown Gold Cup, slightly better right handed and on better ground although the ground's been pretty bad there recently. They won the race with Planet Of Sound 2 years ago and it must be on their radar and he's a class above most of the dross who usually frequent that race.
Captain Chris has a chance but needs alot of luck, If Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs are turning for home surely finish a distance in front off him. Good each way chance mind at the price.
does anyone know who is definately going to run in this race ? And who is not likely to run?
Teaspoon i think the one n bold will run, and the underlined ones i'm not so sure, but it doesn't matter anyway as they have no chance.
1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson
F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson
U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis
2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott
4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater
1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson
F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson
U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis
2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott
4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater
Bog Warrior if he goes will be world hurdle...champion court ryanair...china rock won't win anyway...finanias rainbow CC or ryanair..Jessie dream cross country...katenko no chance anyway...monbeg dud i'm not sure...wyck hill i dunno but i'd imagine he's being kept to handicaps...Now first Lieutenant is contentious, i think Gold Cup but the majority seem to think Ryanair.
didn't Imperial Commander come back from injury to win a paddy power gold cup, Ryan Air nearly a betfair chase and a gold cup...?
Captain Chris has no chance.
Captain Chris has no chance.
so you reckon the gigginstown mob will be 3 handed in the GC and none in their own race..... hmmmm
Although i will say i'm not certaun DDLR will go, so it could be 2-0 instead of 3-0 if they're fit.
Coming to think about it, that's not a bad idea. Send Quito De La Roque to the Ryanair, as he won over 20f last time, and can't get near the top ones over 3 miles or 3miles plus.
Bobs Worth (3), Sir Des Champs (4), Silviniaco Conti (5), Long Run (6), First Lieutenant (12), Captain Chris (14), Cape Tribulation (16), The Giant Bolster (16), Sunnyhillboy (40), Bog Warrior (50), Monbeg Dude (66), Wayward Prince (66)
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