Lac Fontana

FTO or not,  in receipt of all that weight I was quite disappointed with the result

With only 29 days till the start of the festival do you it will run again ?....and if so, could that maybe be a bit much for a 4 year old come Triumph day I.e 3 runs in 32 days ?!?......I don't think you've thought this through

lol well maybe...........Nicholls says it will run again tho, the variables you mention are VERY difficult to quantify, what we DO know is it looks like Chatterbox is v v decent AND given that almost every horse will improve for a run.......I just feel circa 19.5 for potential is decent value, well in my perception anyway lol

Lac Fontana may not have won but he delighted us in finishing second to a good horse, especially as he had to overcome traffic problems.

We are not going to worry about winning a maiden hurdle with him. He will now go to the Adonis at Kempton in a fortnight's time, and if he wins there the Triumph is on the agenda.

I agree with ADR, a lot of weight to be getting from the Henderson hoss for this fellow to be a serious contender for this race. Also worrying when eastayrshire mentions "schoolboy" in a post....

i had some 20,s earlier with SJ, i was also impressed, the winner (chatterbox) could be anything, and a win in the adonis will seee him around the 8-1 mark

yeah point taken, BUT my MO (such as it is) is very flexible on strict weight calculations, we all know that actually you cannot REALLY tell when weight is or has been significant, IMHO technically it doesnt really need to be rated as high as Chatterbox to have a real shout, after all my schoolboy-esque analysis says IF it improves 10lb (not an entirely unreasonable assumption)then we are near MTOY y?, given that 19.5 is decent, y? :-)

On that basis it relates to the 140 odd rating that MTOY had through that formline, and not the 160 odd it now has after the Betfair though?

yup, technically yesBUT in our quest for the elusive edge we have ultimately to take a leap of faith, Ive taken it lol

Well, 10lb of improvement won't help you my friend, you'll need a bit more I suspect.

LF def got hindered by traffic in the race too,just sayin.....

Whatever wins the Adonis will be favourite or close to it, could well be this

would be better to wait until the Adomis and much closer to the day of the race with the Triumph. Normally there are at least 10 (at least) in with chances.

they prefer Far West which goes Saturday at Ascot

they preferred sam winner when zarkandar won, wouldnt read too much into that at this time

agreed, imho its best to ignore what they say, bet on what is actuality and what you see, I`m not saying trainers or connections etc deliberately obfuscate and/or mislead, I`m sure some do sometimes, trouble is you have no way of being sure that they are being honest and truthful or not, seriously imho trainers thoughts whilst beguiling and interesting are not to be taken as gospel.

i looked at the Adonis angle .. but i cant see that the price is anything other than short.. seems to have factored in a  good run at Kempton already.. cause on his debut form he has no chance and could end up in the Fred Winter

On your above post, eastayrshire, I spent this snowy afternoon watching last year's Cheltenham previews whilst burgling a few quid from here, and the amount of absolute nonsense talked by trainers, connections and pundits is unbelievable. Fair play, bet on your own opinion, but this is not one for me. You can get the next round in if it wins though...

We are not going to worry about winning a maiden hurdle with him. He will now go to the Adonis at Kempton in a fortnight's time, and if he wins there the Triumph is on the agenda.

Wonder what price someone like Freddie would have laid you him winning the Adonis and Triumph in the old days? Reading between the lines - and it's a big "if" - he may only run in the latter if he wins the former if you take PFN's words at face value - in which case you would be betting on him winning both, it seems...?

Yeah some of us were attending work :-),imho if it wins the Adonis you've stole the value,if it is indeed value anyway, I liked its performance against a known yardstick, throw in likely improvement after fto and its in the ballpark for me.I agree it is a leap of faith to extrapolate from one run, BUT that's why its the odds it is, but u know this, anyway I'm still giddy from my windfall :-)

D-dayfor you today eastayrshire .... Not going in the Adonis is perhaps a bit of a negative but a good win and you could be in good trade out position. A poor run and you may look a complete fool and very poor judge of a horse in 'front' of the thousands of forum readers....good luck

A poor run and you may look a complete fool and very poor judge of a horse

poor judge of a horse???? can you tell us what was not to like from a horse having its first run since june?

No, I can't

They can all win between now and March 15th but I will be amazed if Our Connor does not go off favourite on the day

lol Scobster, yup as we all know horses make fools of us all the time, or rather we make fools of ourselves all the time, I fully expect LF to win today tho , surely will have improved from FTO behind a very decent horse in a large-ish field, for my MO this one has lots of positives.

Yes I think he could well win today with the weight he's getting. You know I think your a shrewd judge... Good luck

that's that then :-(

not seen the run but was checking the results on me phone, very disappointed !!

These things happen mate. You'll get a couple of winner come the festival, so just cast this one aside and ignore it.

Bubble burst

Clearly slightly disappointing but the Triumph will represent a much different test in terms of pace and course - wouldn't necessarily give up on him just yet

Nah, no chance, forget it....it's drifted like the Kontiki for a reason...eastayrshire made a complete 'schoolboy' error here and quite frankly has 'lost the dressing room' ...if I see him swanning about the Best Mate enclosure this year with a hoity toity tweed jacket or something on the it'll take all my energy not sneer in his direction.

However, there is a couple of weeks to go yet, so maybe he'll come up with another 'gem' and save his tattered reputation

A fine cast there, Scobster, lets see if EA bites or if he is busy polishing his Grensons for the battle ahead. Whilst no great fan of LF, such was the difference in course and times yesterday (compare Irish Saint's time to his Cheltenham time - stiffer track admittedly, but different ground) - that I concur that though flawed his logic may have proven, redemption may be gained if LF appears again on a stiffer track with softer ground. Never my idea of the Triumph winner though, for the record.

What's wrong with tweed jackets ????

Lolol....something a blue Donegal tweed type can be very cool but yer brown, autumnal check type coloured ones can be awful, especially if worn with a v neck jumper, a check shirt and tie....awful. I know this because my fashion sense is exemplary....if there was a best turned out punter award...I'd be odds on

Lol, scobster, you and sartorial elegance?, yeah erm, anyways yup it don't look great for LF but it did finish well (he said apologetically lol) AND IMO looked to have been given a lacklustre ride tbh (scobster and women?),as for times, yeah I'm one for seriously considering times, BUT its notoriously difficult to draw robust conlusions when comparing different tracks on different going imho ,Irish Saint did probably win better than first thoughts tho IMO, def was a decent test for it.