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Cheltenham Festival

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maelduin
09 Feb 13 16:33
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Date Joined: 23 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 728 | Blogger: maelduin's blog
This horse is going to be odds on come raceday. Weakest renewal of the race i've ever seen. Keep laying it stat guys. Absolute banker. imo. glta.

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Replies: 45
By:
willie the milk
When: 09 Feb 13 18:49
I'm on at 14s and the only thing that can beat it is the StatsLaugh No other horse comes close
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 11:20
yeh,hes more and more looking the most likely winner of the week imo.
By:
shockster
When: 10 Feb 13 12:14
Looks bomb proof to me.
By:
willie the milk
When: 10 Feb 13 14:41
The question is: what has the form to beat it? On what I have seen so far, nothing. I agree with you Maelduin, it may just about go off a shade odds on
By:
Haemolysis
When: 10 Feb 13 20:28
We said all of the same guff about Grand Crus and Time for Rupert. Not saying I know who will beat it (have backed Boston Bob) but I believe it will get turned over.
By:
Howdi
When: 10 Feb 13 20:30
I agree with poster but the stats stink more than any race on the racing calendar.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 20:53
No good saying he will get turned over,and then saying you dont know who!!
Thats just silly.
Lets face it,what horse on all known form can anyone say can beat Dynaste.
There aint one that i can see.
Theres no Weapons Amnesty or Bobsworth in this years race,aside from Dynaste maybe.
By:
Haemolysis
When: 10 Feb 13 20:56
I've backed Boston Bob. Can't you read. I'm just not that convinced that. However, the dreaded stats have me convinced that Dynaste will not win. Might be silly to you, but its my opinion!
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:08
Dont think theres a need for that attitude.I can see youve backed BB but you did not say hes the one to beat him!!

No worries about opinions,this is a forum all about them,but to say stats will beat a horse rather than name a likely horse or 2 to beat him?
By:
alleged22
When: 10 Feb 13 21:10
it wont stay the trip imo budd, the only time it has won over 3 miles it was well handicapped, and before the kempton is 3 miles brigade pounce it is the easiest 3 miles your gonna get. i,ll stick with unioniste PN has stated he left plenty to work on so the fact that he won the other day was a bonus
By:
Haemolysis
When: 10 Feb 13 21:12
Attitude - its not surprising if you post a comment on a site where opinions are valued and it gets labelled 'silly'. Back to reality though - which horses on all known form were expected to beat Time for Rupert and Grand Crus then? What daft unbeatable prices were they???
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:20
Silly is not really that bad is it? But i do apologise i upset you.

Yes its happened before,that dont mean it will this year.
I look at the RSA to try and find something to beat Dynaste,i cant anywhere see a horse that looks remotely capable to be honest.

alleged,
this aint no Grand Crus mate,this is a much better horse,and will prove it.
Hes too short for me antepost(plus may go Jewson),but i shall be keeping an eye on his price on the day.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:21
will prove it imo
By:
alleged22
When: 10 Feb 13 21:23
visually has too much speed for me mate
By:
Haemolysis
When: 10 Feb 13 21:25
TBH I've only backed Boston Bob because I reckon its value. I struggled to see what would beat Time for Rupert (and backed it), and struggled to see what would beat Grand Crus (backed BW because I started to believe the stats after Time for Rupert!!!). Nobody would be happier than me to see Dynaste crush the stat. But until it happens, I believe the stats I'm afraid.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:25
maybe,maybe not mate.
Time will only tell us.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:26
Fair enough Haemo.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 10 Feb 13 21:30
Reynoldstown next week innit? That'll throw some more clues and stats into the equation.

Struggling to see what's gonna beat him myself - really like Harry Topper and he was impressive today - but he's not even entered.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Feb 13 21:32
tell me about it rease,i backed HT on here ages ago for the RSASad
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 11 Feb 13 09:36
buddeliea
10 Feb 13 21:20
this aint no Grand Crus mate,this is a much better horse,and will prove it.


How is this a much better horse than Grands Crus?

Grands Crus rated 167 over hurdles with two 2nds to Big Buck's in Grade 1s at Cheltenham and Aintree.
Dynaste rated 161 over hurdles and beaten out of sight by Big Buck's in Grade 1 at Cheltenham.

Grands Crus rated 159 over fences after Feltham, unbeaten in 3 chase starts and clear favourite going into RSA Chase.
Dynaste rated 161 over fences after Feltham, unbeaten in same 3 chase starts and clear favourite going into RSA Chase.

That does not make it a much better horse.
By:
shockster
When: 11 Feb 13 10:59
I've got a stat for you.  Dynaste won the same Newbury Novice Chase as Bobsworth.  Bobsworth won the RSA.  Does that cancel the Feltham stat?  Strange stat the Feltham how it keeps working though.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 11 Feb 13 11:33
I've been ante Dynaste all season but I at the moment i'm struggling to find one to beat it. I'm a Boston Bob fan and you have to hope a frantic pace will see him staying on strongest. I would be interested in Cantlow if he turned up, but that seems unlikely judging by his prep being a hurdle race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Feb 13 12:09
OK roger,maybe i should have said WILL be a much better horse.
Which imo he will.
Right now i know which i would back if they faced each other over 3m.
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 13 Feb 13 13:39
The guessing games have truly begun. Dynaste not a definite for RSA, Pipe will decide whether he runs in this or the Jewson at the final decs stage
By:
Graeme83
When: 13 Feb 13 13:47
Pipe is a put away merchant. I'm glad folk like him and Hobbs don't have too many top horse. It would ruin NH racing for the punter, spectator and enthusiast.
By:
BJG
When: 13 Feb 13 13:50
Dynaste's Cheltenham Festival target is unlikely to be determined until the final declaration stage, according to trainer David Pipe.

The star novice chaser heads the ante-post betting for the RSA Chase but could yet drop back in trip to contest the Jewson Chase the following day.

"I've taken him out of the World Hurdle, but the likelihood is that he will be left in both novice chases at the five-day stage and then a decision will be taken as late as possible," Pipe told SkySports.com

Dynaste is three from three over fences this season under Tom Scudamore, but has been off the track since winning the Feltham Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

"He's in really good form and the runner-up, Hadrians Approach, has come out and really franked the form since, so his form seems to look better and better. But having said that I thought the same about Grands Crus last season before he got beaten at Cheltenham!" Pipe continued.

"Tom says he wouldn't be worried about him going back in trip and nor would I, but we don't need to make that decision yet. The going will certainly be a factor."

Pipe also had news of Goulanes, a recent winner at Wetherby on his first start under Rules over fences, and also on course for the Cheltenham Festival.

"He has come out of the race in good form and will run in either the RSA or the four-miler," said the trainer. "If he had to take on Dynaste it wouldn't worry me - we will choose the best race for each horse."
By:
alleged22
When: 13 Feb 13 14:00
has dave bottled it or is he starting to see sense, was going to take up that nrfb with betv for the jewson but he,s only 4-1 so will take the risk 8-1 with SJ
By:
Forty
When: 13 Feb 13 14:19
You could always take the view that he is being open with the punters.

It's better for him to let you know now rather than when the final declaration have been made.

You are now aware that if you have a bet there is a risk attached.

Forty
By:
alleged22
When: 13 Feb 13 14:23
well my  risk is only a score daves risk is ruining another stable star
By:
Forty
When: 13 Feb 13 14:31
Alledged22

I'm not sure running him in the RSA would necessarily ruin him but I am in agreement with you that the Jewson would be the better race for him.  As a result I have placed my score on also but at the betfair prices.

My point was being made to the people who believe that the horse would run in the RSA and that David Pipe is messing them about.  They must have been aware that the horse had more than one option at Cheltenham.

Good luck
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 15 Feb 13 14:54
NEVER has a horse won the Feltham and this

The last FORTY NINE winners of the RSA ran in same calendar year

PUMPED 45 lengths in last year's World Hurdle

IRISH breds have won 13 of last 15

Lovin people taking 9/4...keep going lads...keep going...Silly
By:
tomdeane
When: 15 Feb 13 18:55
The only reason he's 9-4 is that the Jewson offers a very real alternative destination.

For what it's worth, I think the 4-1 available NRMB with Bat Vector for the Jewson is a real steal. No way he'd go off at 4s in this if they did elect to go that way, and if he does go to the RSA, you'll get your cash back.

I think he'll run in the RSA unless it's testing, but in that case, how many of the decent (but not good enough to beat him anyway) two and a half milers would struggle to get home in a soft-ground Jewson? I think he's be the best bet of the meeting at 4-1 in that scenario.
By:
hicksterthetrickster
When: 15 Feb 13 19:21
Don't forget ton it's not non runner money back. It's non runner free bet- does make a difference. I agree though it would be fav in jewson if runs
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Feb 13 19:42
His form doesn't look worthy of his price to me. What happens when Rocky Creek beats Houblon des Obeaux even more impressively tomorrow?! Boston Bob looks much better value o my eyes
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Feb 13 19:43
Sorry meant on a line through court in Motion.
By:
tomdeane
When: 15 Feb 13 19:45
True hickster - that's an important point. Non Runner Free Bet it is!
By:
Tory
When: 16 Feb 13 18:34
Ballydoyle has this spot on. Whichever way you look at stats one in particular is so damming it cannot be ignored. The last 49 winners all ran in the same calendar year. If he turns up in the RSA I'm praying he goes off 5/4 or 6/4 so that I can lay the hell out of him
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Feb 13 08:38
Problem is Tory,their has to be a horse up against him thats actually good enough!!
i cant see one.
i shall look at this race again on the day,till then i aint bothering with it.
By:
maelduin
When: 17 Feb 13 10:18
"I'm praying he goes off 5/4 or 6/4 so that I can lay the hell out of him"

If the stats are so damning then why do you have to pray for short odds to lay? You stat guys can't have your cake and eat it too. Step up to the plate early like the other poster who told us to "oppose at all costs" when it was trading at 7/1. Now that guy has conviction. Laugh
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