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I thinks its becoming more apparent, that Willie Mullins has enormous firepower in the Novice Races (Un Atout, Arvika Ligeonnaire, Ponte Alexandre, Pique Sous, Aupcharlie, Blood Cotil, Dialali, Ba;;ycasey). Add in some of the Championship Races (Hurricane Fly, Sir Des Champs) as well as Quevega, and a number of good plays as usual in the Amateur races (Boston Bob, Back in Focus) and the Bumper (Union Dues), chances in the handicap hurdles (Inish Island, Abbey Lane) and the 5/2 versus Henderson at 2/5 seems a potential play, even after a reduction from 100/30 since the weekend.
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Thought provoking post. Barring accidents and assuming their stars get to the course, these 2 will contest the top spot. Also worth bearing in mind that along with Nicholls, they are likely to scoop at least half of the 20 pots up for grabs, including most/all the Grade 1's. Important factor in determining where to punt your hard earned.
WH betting NH+WM+PN against the field 6/4. The field 1/2. The three will win plenty of races but may be difficult to to get over 50%. WM and NH appear to be strong in plenty of the same races and there are always a number of trainers with single winners. In addition one has McCain Hobbs and Johnjo. Top trainer definitely between NH and WM. Should either of these do the Ch Hurdle/Gold Cup double he would certainly be in the driving seat. At the odds WM the value but NH probably the more likely. Could be close.
Can see Henderson winning it easily again this year, many of his will improve if the ground dries whereas a few of Mullin's may need the soft ground
Suppose the theory would be that they both start with one horse on the board before racing even gets going (i.e. Quevega and SS) after that it looks to me like Henderson has a slight edge as he does have Simonsig in an uncompetitive (barring overturn) Arkle. After that it looks pretty even. If for any reason Quevega were to get turned over Mullins would drift alarmingly and I can't see anything being in the same shot as SS come wednesday. It might be worth re-viewing the prices again on tuesday night.
Looks like the punters liked the idea of 5/2 Willie Mullins as thats now dropped to 2/1 with both bookies offering it yesterday, and Coral's new book has 11/8 Mullins and 8/11 Henderson.
For those that still think Henderson will win because of SS and Simonsig, you could back a double on SS/Simonsig at much bigger odds combined that backing Henderson to be top trainer, and without both those winning I dont think he would win the title anyway.
For those that still think Henderson will win because of SS and Simonsig, you could back a double on SS/Simonsig at much bigger odds combined that backing Henderson to be top trainer, and without both those winning I dont think he would win the title anyway.
@deepingfox, I take your point. Just to me the tuesday looks absolutely crucial for both of them. They will most likely both have a odds on shot, Mullins has HF, Henderson Grandouet. Could be an uphill struggle for the one that comes off worse
Fallen Angel, completely agree, the betting always turns on its head after Tuesday, and if you back WM you do so in the belief that Tuesday will be good for him.
Wonder if the performance of MOTY has changed the prices at all. I haven't really been on top of this market. Both have a very live chance in the supreme.
Speaking of Mullins, 10/11 for over 3.5 winners with sky bet looks pretty tasty at this point
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