Tidal Bay... Gold cup or World hurdle??

Who knows!! Should be Gold Cup though.

The WH would be better if the ground wasn't soft enough and we was heading for the national anyway

GC as in this race will get the race run to suit,let him attack from off a fat pace,in the WH if he is in the field could see it being a slow pace and TB being in big trouble as they quicken off a slow pace from the top of the hill,in which case he doesnt place,so GC for me and a place only wager on him staying on to collect the place money.

i will go for neither, missed 2 races now, clearly something amiss with the horse.

yeh,he went lame before the Argento,we all know that.

Trainer says he will be ok for March.

Yes robbo, he went lame before Argento and not want to rush him for Ireland. He'll be there and race will depend in ground.

If he wins the world hurdle will we be saying he might well have won the gold cup.

This ground carry on is just a nonsense.

The Gold Cup is further than the world hurdle and will provide more of a test of stamina so where is the logic in saying he goes for the gold cup if the going is soft.

Surely if the trainer thinks the going is not soft enough for him to win the gold cup then he becomes a bigger price for the world hurdle.

Just bo11ocks because he has a fancied horse already in the gold cup

You could say that the trainer is basically saying Silvianaco has a better chance, so unless the groudn  comes up soft Tidal Bay would be better going for a race he can win, and one which could well be a better prep for the national.

It wasn't that long ago PFN was quoting on his BF column that TB was  MASSIVE price for the GC. He was saying this BEFORE he won in Ireland. So, now that he has won a Grade 1 chase, surely the only consideration for this horse is the GC. Remember, he had 3 relatively quick runs at the beginning of the season, Wetherby,Newbury, then Leopardstown.

I reckon they are just get him nice and fresh for Friday.

And lets not forget that the Lexus is a key Gold Cup trial. Last year's winner went on to win the Gold Cup.

It is hard to see Tidal Bay winning either race but perhaps he is more likely to place in the Gold Cup, running on through beaten horses as the faster, younger horses who are less certain stayers burn themselves out and drop back in the final two furlongs.

Looked a lot more capable of running on through beaten horses when beating the best of the Irish lto-over a shorter distance than hes best at!!!!

He runs hes a big player,got the best form this season!!

The World Hurdle looks like being a weak race this year and Tidal Bay has a chance of running into a place as other horses weaken up the hill.

I can see him being ridden out the back and coming off the bridle early in the Gold Cup. It would only take one jumping error for him to lose touch.

I never like to see horses finish in a bunch and I reckon the Lexus form is questionable. Not that the horses involved in the finish are bad but I think Sir Des Champs has not been fully wound up yet and a bold show in the Hennessy would be further evidence that he will have come on since.

Could be a carbon copy of Synchronized last season.

For the umpteenth time, you can only beat whats in front of you. Let us remember his most impressive performance was in Whitbread when he never came off the bit til final few yards. Further he goes the better. Cracking bet for Gold Cup, just needs PN to stand up to Ruby and let Jacobs take the ride is Ruby so sure SC is better.

Funniest thing of the week,DJ on TB picking up RW ON SC up the hill.

Beautiful!

"Could be a carbon copy of Synchronized last season. "




Different types of horses. TB wouldn't be able to take it up as early as Synchronised could.

TB is a very tricky ride and requires the horsemanship of Ruby to have an error free round in the Gold Cup. Jacob did well at Sandown but that was a bad race and things will be happening at lot quicker at the festival.

LOL, I dont think Jacob is that much worse than Ruby, you make him sound like a conditional

Jacob is a good jockey. Ruby is one of the most talented riders in the history of the sport. I know who I would prefer...

Ruby is better than DJ, yes, but in the Gold Cup you won't get the choice and in the World Hurdle it will not matter so much anyway.

Incorrect. TB used to be a tricky ride when HoJo had him. He seems a lot more amenable now PFN is training him. Jacob a good deputy.

Jacob did pretty well on Neptune Collonges last year. He'd be suited to TB no problems.

Anyone would prefer Ruby,of course,but if the horse is good enough on the day then DJ wont stop him.
Utter nonsense to suggest he aint capable.

As mentioned previously, Jacob is a good jockey but if he rode Tidal Bay in the Lexus it is hard to imagine him winning the race. TB would have finished 4th imo and he would not be mentioned as a leading contender for the Gold Cup and would be twice his current odds.

Ruby makes the difference between winning and losing and for TB to have any chance in the Gold Cup it is imperative that Ruby rides imo...

Absolutely no way of knowing how another jockey would have done on that day.
But lets say Tidal Bay had finished 4th against that lot,i would have been well happy,especially knowing that it was too short for him.
I would consider him a major player for the Gold Cup on that form.

Total disrespect to other jockeys imo to say a horse cannot win the Gold Cup unless Ruby rides.
Daryl Jacob as well as a few others well capable of winning the race if the horse is up to it,and the form of TB this season suggests he is certainly up to it.

You have said that "you would prefer Ruby of course". Why is this?

In answering, I presume you will come to the obvious conclusion that a horses chances are improved for having Ruby ride. Fair enough?

No disrespect to Jacob but when he has won everything there is to win in the sport he can be mentioned in the same breath as Ruby.

Jumpings the issue though and he's NEVER jumped better than he did at Sandown that day

Cos Ruby is used to riding him and also hes one of the top jocks,so stands to reason he would be preferable.
That dont mean i would not be happy with a fellow pro though,as long as i rate him,and theres a few i rate highly enough to back their horse if i think their horse has a chance of winning.
I back horses not jockeys,always have,always will.

zilzal1,

Absolutely agree but that was a poor race with many horses pulling up. Tidal Bay was able to take his time and come through slowly and as we know he has stamina in spades. Things will be happening a lot quicker in the Gold Cup.

I happen to think that the Hennessey wasnt Rubys Finest Ride

thats why TB needs soft ground blarney,and thats far more important to his chances than Ruby riding.
Soft ground hes a fair chance,better actually given his form this season against those at the head of the market.
If it aint soft it wont matter whose on him.

buddeliea,

We can agree that it is preferable for testing ground with Ruby riding and neither is likely for the Gold Cup.

Jacob is a good substitute but take it as a huge negative if Ruby opts for Silviniaco Conti.

Blarney,
Yes we have already agreed the 1st bit.

The 2nd bit i dont agree with.
If Tidal Bay has his conditions in the Gold Cup,then i think Ruby will ride him.
If he aint got his conditions he wont run.

"If Tidal Bay has his conditions in the Gold Cup,then i think Ruby will ride him."




No chance

yeh,yer probably right

he might choose wrong though!!

2nd bit? Just to clarify what I have said - Testing ground is unlikely, therefore Ruby is unlikely to ride. Easy decision for him imo...

blarney

Nobody knows what the ground will be like. If the race was run today, it would be extremely testing. Another 4 weeks...who knows.

SC has won both his races on testing ground this season anyway, and better ground at Aintree. It won't bother him.

festivalfanatic,

Regardless of the weather, in March on the Tuesday of the Cheltenham festival it is always no worse than Good (good to soft in places).

It is one of the worlds great mysteries!!

the only chance TB has of winning anything is with ruby on board.

If ruby is being selfish for winners then so be it.

Well chaps,
theres nowt anyone can say that will sway me from the opinion that on soft ground Tidal Bay has a great chance in the Gold Cup,and if it is DJ on board i still have that opinion.
Hes won on the horse and the horse has the form this season to back that up.

I shall leave it at that.
Cheers for the discussion.

But even if TB does run in the GC, how is he going to beat Bobs? Cosy at Newbury. Cosier at Chelts. Stick To World Hurdle - especially on soft so he can pick up OW and RdS after the last. Obvious.

It is hard to see Tidal Bay winning either race. He simply is not fast enough. As said before, his best chance of placing is in the Gold Cup where many of the faster horses are suspect stayers, and where it is quite common for plodders to reach the frame.

But Tidal Bay's best chance of a win involves praying for a wet Aintree or Punchestown.

Dont really need to answer that Ramruna.
Just look at the form book this season.
It makes your comments look foolish.

You people who say he MUST have soft ground seem to forget his wins on good in grade ones at Chelt/Aintree over far shorter

Yes BA he acts on all types of going,but the point of soft for me,is that it helps him in the fact it slows others down that dont act on it as well as he does.

since his arkle and aintree wins on good ground TB record reads

good        g/soft        soft         heavy
w p l r       w p l r        w p l  r     w p l r
0 1 4 5       1 7 5 13       4 1 0  5     0 1 0 1

so clearly excels recently on soft ground and disappoints on good ground

@buddeliea -- not sure which page of the form book you mean. I have agreed with you his best chance is in the Gold Cup. He has already been beaten by the favourite this season, so is unlikely to win and in the Lexus he stayed better than the rest cross the line in front, which is how I envisage he will be placed in the Gold Cup.

Yes we agree its his best chance,but I dont think his form this season entitles him to be called a plodder mate.Rather harsh.
He gave the current fav 6lb and lost by 3 lengths,hes beaten the 2nd fav at level weights over a distance too short for him.
I think all that gives him a fair chance of winning the Gold Cup on soft ground,and suggests to me hes more than a plodder.

I'm not sure I did call Tidal Bay a plodder, which was a comment on some placed horses in the Gold Cup.

Well thats how i read your comment mate,apologies if i got it wrong.

Cant see Conti winning a gc. Never touched a fence yet seemed all out at end to me.

Silviniaco Conti has mainly been kept to flat tracks, which might not be a coincidence.

tidal bay goes for WH according to nicholls then GN

Nice one Ruby. Got your way. Love TB, but almost hope it doesnt work for PN and RW. Pretty sure SC wont win anyway. Surprised GW been as easily swayed

Especially as here in Cotswolds the water table is being topped up again big style.

Tidal Bay runs in the world hurdle, unlucky bud :(

Add to the fact he beat SDC who franked the form to a pound or two, and is now 4-1, this has to be one of the most bizarre decisions in years tbh

they obviously know they can't beat Conti and GW obviously wants Ruby to ride him and that wont happen in the gold cup as Ruby will be riding the winner.

I think its more a case they have options with TB. Egg on face time I reckon for PN and RW

Bizarre decision imo,but there yer go.
Wonder when the owner will have another horse going into the festival with arguably the best Gold Cup form of the season.
They will now always have that nagging feeling of what might have been.

it's not set in stone he runs in the WH but it is looking very likely now.

I think I'm going to back Conti as a result of this. They must have been very happy with his run yesterday to not let TB take his chance. He did say beforehand he wasn't even fully fit yesterday. Will have a saver on Bobs worth and that'll be it for me on the GC.

I've just had my wedge on Conti myself with Spoil sports at 6/1 nrnb.

this years gold cup has been a nightmare  with most of the old guard gone, and the youngsters coming through, all the trials run on very soft or heavy ground, im with GCW  and im going to side with SC this year, the hype horse from ireland does nothing for me, LR hasnt looked the same horse since winning it , and i reckon PN thinks he has the beating of BW because of the form of TB and he thinks SC is better than TB, 6-1 seems a fair price

"Of course, we will leave him in the Gold Cup until the last minute,

Still a bit of hope for me to cling on to

Connections need to wake up here, this isnt the Ruby Walsh Festival. Will Carberry be available? Would love to see him on TB in Gold Cup.

I don't have a financial interest in TB for either race but my thought process is as follows:-

PFN believes he can't beat SC in the Gold Cup. Ruby might also have told Wylie he can't beat SDS either.

The WH is wide open this year and anything might happen. The race could easily cut up and a placed finish without too hard a race is not unthinkable.

His main target is the Grand National.

I don't discount the fact that my thought process is also in all likelihood consistent with the best interests of PFN and possibly Ruby too but that would be cynical, wouldn't it.........

Nicholls says likely to run in world hurdle.

I think its only people who DO have a financial interest that's getting their antepost knickers in a twist here! PN believes it can win the grand national. It won the Whitbread doing handsprings with 11st odd for god sake. But if PN believes it can't beat SC then he's got to be believed. That's why he's the champion trainer, and we're all on here whinging about it!!!

It was obvious what they intend to do, although obviously they have to get there in one piece or everything can change. You pretty much know what to expect from Nicholls. People like Mullins think they're all Machiavellian by putting stayers in entries for 2 mile races and saying they might go for the shorter trip, as if people are going to run scared at the festival. I think Mullins gets Cheltenham confused with his 2 bob Irish races. At least with PN you know you will get a run for your Buck if he states a target and the horse is fit.

well his best form this season is all over Gold Cup type races against the top Gold Cup contenders.
So dont really matter whether one has a financial interest or not.The formbook tells you.

I beg to differ. There are only 2 types of people - those who have a financial interest, and those who respect PNs opinion and trust him to do the right thing. Plus he has no solid form against SC - only PN knows that!!!

And there are People who read the formbook,and they will wonder why the horse with pretty much the best Gold Cup form is running in the stayers hurdle.

I just think they are convinced they can't beat SC, and that they want to win the grand national with him. There's no great conspiracy going on here. Its PN talking not Pipe!!!!

I don't have a financial interest but I'd like to see him in the Gold Cup. I'm slightly perturbed by the fact that this comes out today after Conti's impressive performance yesterday - the presence of Conti should have no bearing on where TB runs because they have different owners (who presumably pay the bills).

I can understand the argument that says World Hurdle-Grand National for TB because a run in the Gold Cup will probably compromise his National chances (and he does have a good chance) - but his owner has two other hot contenders for that race with another trainer.

It's true that Nicholls is generally a good judge, more so than Ruby who plumped for Shooters Wood instead of Edgardo Sol as recently as yesterday.

...and Pearl Swan instead of Dark Lover.

Tidal Bay is thoroughlly exposed to one and all.
They can say what they like but we all know the horse as well as they do.
And theres no way of knowing which horse would come out on top between TB and SC in a soft ground Gold Cup.

In which parallel universe is the ground going to be soft?

i think the decision has been made budd GN is the target with added bonus of some prize money from WH, FWIW i think 20-1 is a great price cant see him being out of the first 4 and he could win it

sorry?
none of us know for sure what the ground will be.Its been soft or heavy since November though.

alleged,
yes mate,it looks almost certain they have decided that.

Been a long time since its been anything other than G/S at worst, that's all.

yeh,and it probably will be again this year mate,but given this persistent sh!te coming from the sky,it is possible we could have a soft ground festival for once.

Fair point. Claisse is good, but he's not God!

Tidal Bay taken out of Gold Cup! What an amazing decision, surely you would keep your options open at this stage. Giving up chance to win the Blue Riband race to improve chance in that relative lottery of a handicap race in April.

Budd - look away now -



"Well, the handicapper has certainly given Tidal Bay every chance in the Grand National.

And Aintree is the number one priority for him.

So much so that after speaking to Mr Wylie last night, we have scratched Tidal Bay from the Gold Cup, and if it means foregoing running in the World Hurdle to have him at his peak for Aintree, then so be it."

The main point is that Bobs Worth is a worthy favourite and Tidal Bay was only beaten 3 lengths giving him weight on ground NOT soft enough for him... and beat First Lietenant again and SDC in the Lexus.... Wylie already has 2 live chances for the national, when will he have a chance to win the Gold Cup not soon with Boston Bob or Back inFocus...
As Synchronised proved 3m 2f at Cheltenham requires a true stayer even if the ground is good.....
I am talking through pocket but truely if I did own him he would run in the Gold Cup with Jacob aboard....

Comical stuff.

So when the owner said after the Lexus about the Gold Cup,and when the jockey said the WH,what they actually meant was the Grand National.
The trainer though has been saying for weeks now that it will probably be in the WH,but will keep him in the GC till nearer the time-presumably cos of the ground.
Now we get this!!
At least my bets were done ages ago,so thats fair enough,but i do have sympathy for any that have backed Tidal for the WH in recent weeks.

They did not know his handicap mark for the GN until today.

Though I still think it is a ceazy decision not to run him in the GC.

Sint,
they would have known pretty much his mark,dont you think!

Crazy decision to run in the GN. At least in Cheltenham he may have gotten Good to soft ground. The way Aintree drains now the worst ground is good with high chance of good/fast ground.

Appalling decision to run in GN and disgraceful from handicapper to ensure he runs. PFN has made it clear that has been looking at GN and now given the green light by Phil.

Now we have a top class horse running in the race and when the speed is applied to the race, that's when we have problems. This compressed handicap for this race is complete bollox imo. We lost our CGC winner last year as he was so 'well in' it made sense to run - that's not what the National is about.

Rant over

I don't think TB will complete if he runs. I just can't see him being suited to the fences.

Biblical place lay.

Crazy decision to run in the GN. At least in Cheltenham he may have gotten Good to soft ground. The way Aintree drains now the worst ground is good with high chance of good/fast ground.

thats not my understanding of things, 1 of the safety measures brought in was to provide good to soft ground, please excuse me if i am wrong

END OF THREAD.

Not too many horses get to retire off the back of a win in a grade 1 race like the Lexus but surely Tidal Bay will have seen his last days on a racetrack with the news that the 12yo has a stress fracture.

Good horse in his day but not a great horse.

If you take his arkle win and then his exploits this season, you'd never have guessed what came in between, he may have been a great horse that was very very unfortunate.

Yep,his exploits at his age make you wonder what could have been for sure.
He was a good horse that could have been a great horse.
But whatever ive enjoyed watching him and backing him over the years.
Ive enjoyed the banter hes provoked on here as well.