Cheltenham Festival
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Noticed he's entered to run against Captain Conan at the weekend, he looks quite interesting, already beaten CC over hurdles last season. he's trading at 34/1 for the Jewsons at the moment which is a fair price, what do people think??? Could be a player come march.
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Dunno mate but trainer says he's more likely to run at Musselburgh on Sun - probably against Overturn there so still interesting
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interesting, suppose it depends where the better ground is.
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Bit of a drift for Jewson today
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LUCINDA RUSSELL is planning to keep Tap Night closer to home for Musselburgh's festival trials meeting on Sunday, rather than head down to Sandown for the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown the day before.
A winner for JP McManus on his chasing debut at Ayr earlier in the month, the six-year-old has entries in the Scottish Arkle and Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase on Sunday, with Russell undecided which one to go for. She said: "I definitely want to run him this weekend in either the two-mile race [Arkle] or the two-and-a-half [Future Champion]. He is entered at Sandown but that's just a back-up in case Musselburgh is off." With the going at Musselburgh good to soft, hopes are high that the meeting will take place and Russell is looking forward to Tap Night getting more match practice. She added: "He needs more experience, I still want to run him again, possibly at Kelso later in the month [February], and then we will decide whether to go for a handicap or the Arkle at Cheltenham."  ffs |
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She's chnaged her mind, I'm sure she mentioned the Jewson as a target for this one earlier in the season.
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quote comes from Pricewise Arkle preview - would not read too much into it personally - she probably just forgot to mention the Jewson as an option!He is entered.
Will be interesting to see whether he runs in 2m or 2m 4f race at Musselburgh on Sunday. That will surely be a bigger clue than the quote (plus how he runs of course!) |
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been looking at this one myself this morning. i defo saw a quote saying the jewson was his target, but i also thought that McManus didnt look to have anything for the Arkle at this stage, and has a couple of potential runners in the Jewson.
'He should only improve for this experience and the Grade 2 Jewson Novice Chase over 2m4f at Cheltenham, a distance well within his compass, may prove a viable target come March. His trainer later confirmed moving up in trip is the plan.' travelled so well in the sefton before stamina gave way and as mentioned above, has already beaten captain conan over hurdles (getting 3lbs). i cant help thinking this race is going to cut up drastically with many horses looking likely to step up to jewson and trainers/owners trying to avoid simonsig. also had a little look at Majala  at a big price. on a very tenuous line through Ohio Gold he doesnt deserves to be 5/6 times the price of Fago. |
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A horse I've had my eye on for the Jewson. So not too pleased with the latest from the trainer.....but then, a handicap. Which one exactly?
The Grand Annual? Surely not The Novice Handicap over 2m 4f? ...guess this is the one in question. But this is for horses rated up to 140. Tap Night has only one run under his belt to date over fences so wouldn't qualify for a handicap mark.....and even if he did what would he be allotted? A quick look at the Racing Post ratings shows that a figure of 140 was awarded for his 'canter' at Ayr on the 2nd of January......my word, that does seem to be lucky as if Tap Night was to be awarded an Official Rating off the back off that he'd only just scrape into the race (I believe an OR above 140 disqualifies a horse). But then the horse will of course have to run another couple of races to earn an official rating? In the meantime lets have another look at that race at Ayr and the Racing Posts own assessment of the race. I've been keeping my eye out for this horse for a while as I'd put it into my Tote Ten to Follow; so obviously keen to see it run and score points. I therefore made a point of reading the Racing Post write up and viewed the ratings of the race (RPR, Topspeed) once added to the RP website. As I said the current RPR as shown on the RP website is 140.....bang on the button to qualify for the Novice handicap over 2m 4f. 1lb more....and the horse doesn't qualify....very close. Now hang on, I may be going a bit mad here as when I first read up on the Racing Post report on this race the RPR figure awarded was 141....and as the Official handicapper has a lazy tendency for letting the RP do the donkey work in awarding a lot of the ratings, the reality would have been that Tap Night would be in line to kick off with an official handicap that puts the kybosh on a run in the Centenary/ Pulteney handicap. So am I having a whinge or am I telling you something with an under current of manipulation here by the RP and Co.? where is my evidence that the numbers have actually been changed from 141 to 140 by the Racing Post to bring Tap Night back into the handicap picture? Have a look at the result of the race on the Racing Post website (an old copy of the paper version of the RP should confirm btw). The horse that came 2nd in that Ayr race, Un Guet Apens was officially rated 122......yet the Racing Post report carries an RPR figure for the race of 121. Tap Night's RPR is benchmarked against that horse, and the benchmark would be against the 122 figure and not the 121 figure. It makes no sense to assume the 2nd ran to 1lb less than its OR. The rating has been manipulated after the event (which granted often happens), but in this case they forgot to cover their tracks by not realigning the 2nd home. It riles me considerably when I read a copy of the Racing Post to hear that this bad boy or another has being warned off etc, for this that and the other when it seems to me that the RP themselves are exposing themselves to potential market manipulation. Do they not understand that people will make punting decisions off the back off the data they produce. |