TOPSPEED RATINGS IN ARKLE!!

does anybody know what these mean?

it refers to how quick they are going if they were really trying

go to nickmordin.com if you really want to be confused

I do not know how the RP do it - but in principle a horse gets a rating based on its time rather than form.

So if a 5f horse runs a race to standard time it might get a rating of 70.

If its quicker / slower it gets a higher  / lower rating. Now because form ratings will work it out from a yardstick horse (a genuine individual who runs consistantly in the pack) then the horse may only be given a rating of say 67. This is where the descrepancies are.

The best horses therefore record good top speed and form numbers. Anything with a low speed rating but good form should be treated with caution (i.e Darlan in the CH).

Mings got it.

Topspeed rates how fast a horse has run

RPR's are traditional form ratings like the official handicapper (only better).

how does the TS work when a good horse beating inferior opposition is eased down, it surely will not get the TS figures he would have got had he been ridden out

exactly right alleged! there is a measure of skill required in working out how much faster a horse could have run if asked

I adjust TS ratings upwards but only in very specific circumstances: the horse must have earned the in running comment, in the racing post result, of one of easily, comfortably, hard held, not extended or the very rare canter

otherwise I stick to the base rating

but I'm not saying how much I add!

so unless all horses are ridden out to the line then these numbers are useless?

AL has raced in G1,s against better opposition which is why the TS is higher, i expect simonsig to put up a higher TS in the arkle as his runs so far this season have been like exercise gallops

Incorporate them into your analysis of a race and let us know

exercise gallops

or should i say a public schooling on a racecourse

I would be wary of going nuts deep on any animal that hasn'teither runa fast time or been extended beyond a canter, at the Festival.

It's always tempting to come up with ideas of how far they would have won by or how fast they would have run, but this pre-supposes they're not a bridle ponce, which, unless you've seen them battle you can never know.

Would it be fair to say then that soft ground performers are on average going to have much lower speed figures than the good ground horses, and consequently, depending on what type of ground they are racing on a particular day, some figures are useless again, if they are achieved on opposing ground.

No

The going allowance that Topspeed (and other speed ratings compilers) calculate and factor into the maths of producing their figures eliminates the effect of the going.

The figures produced aren't a 'miles per hour' type figure - which would clearly be lower in heavy ground than firm.

Would it be fair to say then that soft ground performers are on average going to have much lower speed figures

There are ground 'adjustments' to time figures, it is about judging the standard time of the day.

For example a 5f sprint run to standard at maybe 60 secs, on soft 65 secs... they would both be rated the same after adjustment. This is done by understanding the times run in all races through the day to determine the speed of the ground.

so if there were 2 races at the same meeting on the same day and going and one race was run at a quicker pace then the other you could potentially have a 100/1 shot who was beat 30 lengths in the fast run race being rated higher that a 1/5 shot who wins by 15 lengths in the other race if it was slower run?

since when did a winning distance matter?

I don't think I understand the question giggsy....

bullet train was 100/1 many times and beaten 15l many times - he would have whupped a 50 rated handicapper.

giggsy3444 Joined: 17 Aug 05
Replies: 183 31 Jan 13 15:33   


so if there were 2 races at the same meeting on the same day and going and one race was run at a quicker pace then the other you could potentially have a 100/1 shot who was beat 30 lengths in the fast run race being rated higher that a 1/5 shot who wins by 15 lengths in the other race if it was slower run?

Theoretically yes - because you are assigning a rating for a horse on a day in a race.

If you then go on to punt or lay either horse next time, purely on the basis of their last time out speed figures then I've got some skyhooks and glass hammers I'd like to sell you too.

Thanks ROGERTHEBUTLER!