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I am wondering what other people think about this one as I think this could be one of the best value bets of the meeting at this stage.
New Year's Eve was sent off a well-supported favourite in the Festival Bumper last year and ran a super race, finding only Champagne Fever too strong having looked the winner throughout the final half-mile. He looked very classy in weaker company before that and is clearly a horse blessed with a lot of natural ability as advertised by the strength of the Bumper form; stacks of winners were well beaten behind this one in the race, including none other than current Supreme ante-post favourite Jezki, and Neptune major player The New One.
New Year's Eve has only had the one run over timber, in which he finished a seven-length second to River Maigue at Kempton. The winner was too good on the day but New Year's Eve showed real promise, especially seeing as he looked a little rusty, was not overly fluent, and looked ill at ease on the heavy ground. I'd expect him to come on massively for that run, and on better ground, his qualities will be seen in a far more positive light.
Anyway, he has three entries this week so connections are obviously looking to get more experience into him, and if he runs well or wins when we next see him, he could well shorten considerably in the markets. Best of all, he can be backed at a top-priced 25s with Bat Vector for up to 50 quid, and you can rest assured that if he doesn't run in the Supreme, you will get that money back as a free bet for Cheltenham on the day. This seems like a very low risk bet to me: we have a horse with stacks of ability that is most likely to either shorten considerably before the Supreme having performed well in his prep, or he might disappoint and not show up, in which case there is no harm done.
He looked all quality in the Bumper last year and could easily be one of the smartest horses in the mix. Good luck all!
New Year's Eve was sent off a well-supported favourite in the Festival Bumper last year and ran a super race, finding only Champagne Fever too strong having looked the winner throughout the final half-mile. He looked very classy in weaker company before that and is clearly a horse blessed with a lot of natural ability as advertised by the strength of the Bumper form; stacks of winners were well beaten behind this one in the race, including none other than current Supreme ante-post favourite Jezki, and Neptune major player The New One.
New Year's Eve has only had the one run over timber, in which he finished a seven-length second to River Maigue at Kempton. The winner was too good on the day but New Year's Eve showed real promise, especially seeing as he looked a little rusty, was not overly fluent, and looked ill at ease on the heavy ground. I'd expect him to come on massively for that run, and on better ground, his qualities will be seen in a far more positive light.
Anyway, he has three entries this week so connections are obviously looking to get more experience into him, and if he runs well or wins when we next see him, he could well shorten considerably in the markets. Best of all, he can be backed at a top-priced 25s with Bat Vector for up to 50 quid, and you can rest assured that if he doesn't run in the Supreme, you will get that money back as a free bet for Cheltenham on the day. This seems like a very low risk bet to me: we have a horse with stacks of ability that is most likely to either shorten considerably before the Supreme having performed well in his prep, or he might disappoint and not show up, in which case there is no harm done.
He looked all quality in the Bumper last year and could easily be one of the smartest horses in the mix. Good luck all!
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Yeah Tom, i was also thinking that this horse and Pique Sous are well priced, as the bumper form looks good. He showed promise on his return, and on good enough ground you would imagine he is capable of running well.
any word on pique sous, i have him backed at 25's but havnt heard anything fom mullins in a while. thanks
^^^^ they are waiting for better ground to run him on
Pique Sous has an entry in Dundalk on Friday. I guess he needs decent ground so they have little option but Dundalk if they are to get a run in before Cheltenham.
I like horses in the Supreme who ran in the bumper the year before, both of these interest me but not if this rain continues
Tom, he runs tomorrow and he is still too big a price in my opinion. When he walks over them tomorrow i don't know what he will be cut to, but my gut feeling right now is that this horse won't be out the top 3, and could well go close on the day.
Hope so Graeme! I've taken advantage of the 25s NRFB offer with Bat Vector, which seems very generous as I can't see him turning up unless he hoses up tomorrow. Fingers crossed!
will the ground be too soft tomorrow,or is there nothing to give it a decent challenge? trying to work out whether totop up now or after at a huge price.
Am sure he'd prefer it a bit sounder but no excuses there. He should win easily really, although it's hard to know how much he'll be cut on the back of it.
I can see the bookies cutting him into 16/1, they love any excuse
I thought he went well first time up over hurdles but either something went wrong or he just dogged it. He did make a mistake at the second last and could have rapped himself if you want to be kind.
You'd need to be very kind to be fair! Was bitterly disappointing and can really only hope he doesn't turn up now!
@ you hoping he doesn't turn up now. Those concessions do funny things to people.
Grim I know... Just don't see any real positives to that performance!
It's hard to explain that performance. We're not to know when a horse isn't going to progress from it's last run. He ran really well in the bumper, shaped well at Kempton, and then that ?
I know; it was very odd. He jumped better than on his debut too so very. very hard to explain. You can't really argue the winner might be very good either, because it's not as though the first two pulled clear of the others. Did he dog it? Jock was certainly not over-hard on him for a beaten 2/7 shot so perhaps something wasn't right. Either way, he doesn't look like a Supreme candidate now!
Being by Motivator is not ideal, his stock tended to go backwards on the flat, seems like they're destined for a similar feat over sticks - Calculated Risk a notable example today.
don't entirely agree with that liam some have progressed nicely on the flat tactician and motivado more recently...would say they aren't straight forward but the sire himself is by montjeu and nothing is straight forward with him...although don't think his progeny are straight forward i think it is early days in regards his jumpers...wouldn't right off just yet although you maybe right and have slight reservations myself
Yep no doubt they're not straightforward harry - re NYE he cocked his jaw and didn't want to know at Ludlow tother day - better ground and no hurdles prob see him in a better light.
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