Fago looks like been pricewised?

12s best price now 8s in places,surely only running for 2nd at best?

8's....if that's true he has just usurped darlan for most ridiculous price at the festival

^^^^^ worse than Jezki or even Dynaste being 5/2 for 2 separate races months before the festival ?

Fek sake, i wanted to back this at 16s and was waiting till after the weekend. 12/1 now seems fair enough though if taking the view that he will be much shorter, poss 3rd fav on the day of the race and even if taking the view simonsig could be 3s on this makes this fellow if turning up no bigger than 7s or 8s so he is value! Depends how you perceive value as being

And getting 3 places in a race that will, i am no doubt have less than 8 runners!

No value in this....he's not in the class of Simonsig or Overturn and surely playing for third. The win part is a waste of time so it's really 3/1 that he gets third. Not for me

Depends which way you looking at playing the race. I look at it as, was going to back it anyways. There is still 6 weeks to raceday, 4-5 weeks till nrnb and he is being aimed at the race. 12/1 now, or 7-8/1 on the day with the added potential of less then 8 runners and so only 2 places to which i wouldn't back it at all. Anything can and invariably does happen in a race. Anything can happen and invariably does happen in the run up to a particular race where ante-post is being considered. I have already backed Overturn at 7s, he was value then, wont be bigger than 5s on the day and have 3 places too. If people are right and simonsig makes the race and overturn is to be as short as 3s, this means simonsig wont be shorter than 8/11 - 4/6sp making (should fago be 3rd fav and see no reason at this stage why he wouldnt be) FAGO a 5/1 - 11/2 poke sp and with again the possibility of only 2 places. Chances are, the final result will see 2 of the top 3 in the market placed, the winner and the 2nd and/or 3rd. So 12/1, 1/4 odds 3 places is still massive value imho!

If you are even thinking about backing Fago you have to be pretty certain he is nailed on to finish in the three - even then it is a relatively small return. Personally, I don't think there was much substance at all to that Newbury race and he got a very easy lead. He may also be better over further. I think Pricewise put him up purely because he didn't have a 'no bet' option. The fear of Simonsig has pretty much killed the ante-post market. Doubt the field will be less than eight as plenty will probably fancy their chances of nicking place money in what looks a very weak renewal.

Thought I had nabbed 80/1 but alas no!

Still happy with my current situation for a little bit of fun

    GB / Chelt 12th Mar / Arkle Chs TBP    Fago    Back    23795869074    02-Dec-12
21:34         8    10.00        8    02-Dec-12 21:34   
    GB / Chelt 12th Mar / Arkle Chs    Fago    Back    23795868773    02-Dec-12
21:34         46    20.00        48    02-Dec-12 21:34

People were thinking the same as that last yeat differentdrum, but in the end less than 8 went to post! (was it 7 after one nonner on the day)
Yes there may well be rags making it up to more than the 8, as the arkle is a grade 1 race and prize money down to 6th. But the calibre of horse filling those numbers on the race card wont be up to much as finishing 5th or 6th in this race will be better than winning a race in them horses own grade. We see this every year almost when theres a real shortie!

Perfect example is kinkeel!

Dont think Ruby will be riding him.

Why wouldn't Ruby ride him


Put it another way, how often do all the 'bankers' win at the festival? Not very. We have 3 this year so far. Simonsig, Quevega and Sprinter. Who thinks Sprinter will win, that be all of you, this includes me as he has already proven he literally just needs to turn up fit and well and jump round. Quevega only looks like she has to turn up and beat the same horses again, though a year on, she may have lost some zest but we do not as yet know till she shows up on the day. To me she was impressive last years mares race but not as impressive as the year before. Could this be a trend on her being older? I've laid her. But should she be odds against morning of the race i will prob back her for a free bet. Now we have simonsig. We know how good he is, but the fact he has turned up in non competitive novice chases as done SS the year before has done nothing to suggest to me that he has already won it if turning up fit and well, and we need to not forget that these do get turned over on a daily basis. Especially at the festival. So for that reason i am happy to back again him each way and treat it as a dirty each way race it is certain to be! Am not saying i haven't backed simonsig. That is more insurance than anything else and cos i believe he will be a 2-3s on poke sp.

All am saying is i rather tread carefully with these things!

Depends if Mullins runs one of his,if so i think Ruby will choose that one.

arvika-ruby

Sea
See your thinking on quevega, but think simonsig comments are slightly wrong, while Hinterland is not top class he is no mug and to give him 11 pounds and a 48 length (that nearly 100 meters in a 3200 meter race) beating is outstanding form this distance could also have been any amount further, given the ability we no he has from his hurdling days its far to say this is in the SS banker level.

hes got a rival with ability from hurdling days whose taken to fences very well,no banker.
In fact no such thing as a banker at the festival.

Sprinter Sacre is a banker

So is Simonsig

Big bucks was a banker 3 times along with Istabraq,Quevega and plenty of others!!!

plenty of so called bankers got beat as well.

Very true but the point was No bankers at the festival
Like those i named this is!! or at least to my untrained eye a total banker worthy of a mention with those names, hes already won at one festival and i think will win at several more.

you know what i meant.

Is not a banker the same as a cert?

Wondering what the books will price up as a special treble. Am sure one or two will do this after the imperial at Sandown. Anything bigger than 4/1, i be backing it!

Simonsig 5/6
Quevega 8/11
Sprinter Sacre 2/5

Thats just a shade under 7/2, a special might be 4/1+ as one of them will surely be bigger, the last 3 festivals has seen both Quevega being very short antepost only to be sent off odds against!

not the last 2 festivals..4/7 and 5/6.

She was odds against or evens money with at least one bookmaker the morning of the race or week before! Billys and lads went into a price war one year, i had 11/8 and 5/4 double BB & Quevega year before last and last year i got 6/5 pre race on a single Quevega! I fully expect similar again this!

this time last year, I seem to remember the bookies specials were focused on all the championship races being run by defending champion.

Hurricane Fly
Sizing Europe
Big Bucks'
Long Run

...the rest is history

won not run ffs

looks like arvika will go jewsons now so rubys free to ride

hope you are right,but where did you hear that tweedle?

just hearsay from someone whos not too far off the pace,nothing concrete.
personally i hope arvika runs in the arkle.

any idea on the possibility of Aupcharlie in the Arkle?

no idea sorry

well i backed him at huge odds but had pretty much given up on that,but with him not staying 3m and the possibilty of AL in the Jewson,maybe it could happen after all.