Cheltenham Festival

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its a brent thing
28 Jan 13 14:46
Date Joined: 20 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 98 | Blogger: its a brent thing's blog
MERRY KING in the National Hunt Chase on the Wednesday for me. Coral a standout 16/1 at the mo. Jonjo knows how to ready one for this (5-time winner of the race) and his 2nd behind Rolling Aces at Newbury is turning out to be one of the hottest novice handicap chases of the season, with SIX subsequent winners! Fill your boots!!
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Report SeaTheStars101 January 28, 2013 5:52 PM GMT
Divers in the Byrne Group Chase. He has been running on soft ground all season. His handicap mark has dropped through the floor. He came third last year and will be effectively running off a 10lb lower mark. Ferdy will have fighting for his life. I really fancy him. Must have good ground though.
Report The RealDeal January 28, 2013 7:16 PM GMT
Grands Crus for the Ryanair, have to hope he was pulled up early enough on Sat, Pipe says all plans are "on hold" now whatever that means. A couple of quiet weeks and they'll see if he's ok, if so then two and a half miles on decent-ish ground would be ideal, if he makes the line up he would surely be in single figures, not 30+ on here. Of course they may wait for Aintree or even next year but he's not exactly been running under his preferred conditions the last twice.
Report its a brent thing January 28, 2013 7:23 PM GMT
Divers beaten a total of 225L last three starts!! As for Grands Crus, never in a million years! Good luck though!
Report Brooksielad January 28, 2013 7:28 PM GMT
Menorah w/o Sprinter Sacre Champion Chase. A race in which Sprinter Sacre will scare most of the decent opponents off. Flem, Sanctuaire, Cue Card all with doubts about lining up. I think Hobbs might see this aswell and think Menorah would have more success playing for 2nd in the Champion Chase as opposed to runnning in what will look like a very competitive Ryan Air.

1pt win 36/1
Report The RealDeal January 28, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
Thanks for the good luck, thought you were trying to encourage more adventurous selections!Cool
Report mandor January 28, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
Solwhit  for the world hurdle with big bucks out must have a good chance.Backed him at 44/1 a horse with a bit of class in a open looking race.
Report tomdeane January 28, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
SeaTheStars101... shhhh!!!!

In all seriousness, I am in complete agreement with you. Rarely have I seen a horse that is so dependent on one sort of ground to shoe his best. He could have been beaten by 2250 lengths on soft for all I care. He is blindingly well handicapped and Ferdy is a master at winning at the Festival. If the ground is good (major 'if' of course) this spaffs up!

PS: I do have one at a price to add but am presently in the throes of getting on myself, so will leave mentioning it for a little while!
Report wellchief January 28, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
Houblon Des Obeaux in the Nation Hunt Chase at 16/1 is a cracking bet.

Not good enough to win and RSA Chase and probably too high in the handicap for the William Hill on day one (currently 148 and Teaforthree was highest rated last year in the NH Chase with 146 and won).

Houblon has won at Cheltenham and was placed in last years Pertemps behind Cape Tribulation (not bad looking form now).  He's also got some good form this year.  Placed just behind Benificent (Irish Arkle winner) and Highland Lodge, and just failed to beat Court in Motion giving weight; all over 3m.

I think the step up in trip wouldn't be a problem and is a big price.
Report Haemolysis January 28, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
Forum darling I know, but FL in the gold cup. Got to be nailed on for a place after running above himself repeatedly in rancid ground. Improve out of all recognition in march. PS menorah not even entered in th CC.
Report silvercoat January 28, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
Dynaste in the RSA

I liked the way that he won here last November when he beat Fingal Bay. He's done nothing wrong since.

Could be a better horse than Grands Cruz had the potential to be.
Report Haemolysis January 28, 2013 9:31 PM GMT
I refer the honourable sliver coat to the thread we all frequented earlier - 'dynaste cannot win the RSA'!!!
Report ReaseHeath January 28, 2013 9:32 PM GMT
Rite Of Passage World Hurdle. Available at 100 on here - of course, he might not turn up (he is entered) but, if he does, he has to be on the premises surely?

Form figures are 113411113131 including two prestigious long distance Group race victories in his last three outings - long absence would n't bother me - trainer will have him primed to the minute if he shows.

Big if though
Report silvercoat January 28, 2013 9:42 PM GMT
Point taken Haemolysis
Report Brooksielad January 28, 2013 9:57 PM GMT
Ok see if i fair bit better with this one out of left field. Cantlow for RSA, I understand he's much shorter for the handicap but he has impressed me and with JP not having much in terms of RSA candidates perhaps he could take his chance. Cape Trib franked the form from last years pertemps well enough the other day and at 150/1 he could line up much shorter on the day.

1pt win 150/1
Report wannamaker January 28, 2013 9:58 PM GMT
Was a big fan of Divers.Told all about him last year.There comes a time with a horse u just have to let go.Not good enough.
Diakali for Triumph 12/1 sssh.
Report SeaTheStars101 January 28, 2013 11:13 PM GMT
TomDeane you will have to share your other big plot on here when you get on.

Wannamaker I was the same as you with Cape Tribulation following him for 2 years and then giving up on him just before the festival he ended up winning the pertemps, a big handicap hurdle at Aintree, the rowland meryick and the bloody argento. I kid you not I followed this horse religiously i backed him when he got touched off by wayward prince in Wetherby, again touched off at Market Rasen by Radium I thought he would be ubeatable that day and then at Cheltenham a few months before the festival where he finished 5th to ruin my nice each way bet.
Report SeaTheStars101 January 28, 2013 11:18 PM GMT
I remember Poker De Sivola was all the rage as a horse ferdy laid out for the Festival he ran disappointing finishing 7th he came back the next year and won. Ferdy is the man he will do it again mark my words.
Report tomdeane January 29, 2013 6:52 AM GMT
The one I really like at the moment is New Year's Eve in the Supreme. I just started another thread on him, but the short version is that he's 25-1 with Bat Vector and they are running that money back as a free bet promotion if an ante-post selection is a non-runner on the day. On Bumper form and a promising first run over timber, that could be a rick, and if he doesn't prove the same class over hurdles he probably wouldn't run and you'd get your stake back. He stuffed The New One and Jezki at the Festival last year...
Report tomdeane January 29, 2013 6:52 AM GMT
The one I really like at the moment is New Year's Eve in the Supreme. I just started another thread on him, but the short version is that he's 25-1 with Bat Vector and they are running that money back as a free bet promotion if an ante-post selection is a non-runner on the day. On Bumper form and a promising first run over timber, that could be a rick, and if he doesn't prove the same class over hurdles he probably wouldn't run and you'd get your stake back. He stuffed The New One and Jezki at the Festival last year...
Report tomdeane January 29, 2013 6:52 AM GMT
Just to confirm, I like him, but not enough to justify two bets as the double posting would suggest Cry
Report robbo69 January 29, 2013 6:57 AM GMT
Le vent D'antan in the bumper,impossible race to get overly keen on but saw it run last Saturday went the longest way round the outside its possible to in a race quicken in a couple of stides and put the race to bed like a real good horse. 12-1 on here only 8s and 9s with the old enermy.
Report grinch January 29, 2013 7:36 AM GMT

dont wanna be a cnt .. but Menorah isnt entered for the race is he?
Report Brooksielad January 29, 2013 7:42 AM GMT
nah he aint, was looking for obscure bets yesterday at work and presumed he would of had an entry in the race find it strange they've entered wishful thinking and not Menorah. Lazy studying on my part, my 2 quid has bit the dust lol unless they suplement him in March if it really does cut up.
Report grinch January 29, 2013 8:33 AM GMT
shame cos the angle was a good one ..
Report minig11 January 30, 2013 8:59 PM GMT
Monksland 8/1 is a rock solid each way bet for the World Hurdle. Targeted at this race all season unlike a lot of others and is one who definitely seems to be improving with each run. His run at Cheltenham last year was very good when finishing 3rd to Simonsig despite being badly hampered by Cotton Mill running out. He has the requisite speed and stamina required for this and is a horse on the upgrade in my eyes
Report saxon farm January 31, 2013 1:19 AM GMT
A pleasing thread.

LONG RUN 7/1 e/w 1/4 odds NRNB (boil sports) = good value.
Report robbo69 January 31, 2013 7:03 AM GMT
total agree saxon
Report booster January 31, 2013 7:38 AM GMT
Lay Hurricane Fly @ 3.85 Champion Hurdle and lay for a place @ 1.8 because it's too short.
Report cyclops January 31, 2013 9:43 AM GMT
Snap up the 44 about Don Cossack for the Neptune if he appears in the entries today. Entered this weekend and next and a return to top form would make those odds very tradeable. (See DC thread below).
Report johntucker January 31, 2013 10:04 AM GMT
Would need to beat Mullins representative to be considered back in the game Cyclops. Is entirely possible tho.
Report cyclops January 31, 2013 11:37 AM GMT
Of course. But 44 (was up to 95 earlier in the week) allows for an element of doubt! (16's best bookies price last time I looked).
Report johntucker January 31, 2013 11:41 AM GMT
At current prices, 7/1 I think Boston Bob is a standout bet in what could be a very uncompetitive race.
Report cyclops January 31, 2013 12:50 PM GMT
Yes, very much so. Wish he'd come again though.
Report sintonian January 31, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
the price has gone a bit but it is hard to see Reve De Sivola out of the frame for the Worldy, imo. He stays the trip throughly, has won the last two top trials/recognised trials and is seemingly back to his, has plenty of backclass from his novice hurdle days, 2nd in the Neptune and then winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown. 5/1 looks perfect eachway material, try and find 3 horses to beat him.
Report sintonian January 31, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
*back to his best
Report Luke01 January 31, 2013 6:35 PM GMT
I think Smad Place is a good value bet for World Hurdle. 16-1. He finished 3rd last year at such a young age and have not had his ground all season. I would think he will run a good race again.
Report frankalsoran60 January 31, 2013 7:19 PM GMT
Boyles ARE GIVING MONEY BACK N/RUNNERS for the gold cup and the champion hurdle...the gold cup one might appeal to Flemenstar fans ..he is 11/1 with boyles at the min for the gold cup.
Report HaylingBilly January 31, 2013 7:46 PM GMT
Balthazar King @ 7/1 in X Country. Form @ Cheltenham since April 2011 is 1,1,RO,PU,1,1,2 and all over 3 miles. 5 of last 6 races all at Cheltenham. Defending champion. Could argue when RO he was well placed to win. Can there be a horse in any Festival race with better course history and form. Thoughts ?
Report wellchief January 31, 2013 7:59 PM GMT
Was thinking the same Hayling.

I never back in the Cross Country because it is a joke of a race imo, but I think he is banker e/w material.  I took the 8's with Hills the other week, who are doing ew top 4, and 1/4 of the odds - it's a no brainer for me.

The winner imo, will come from him or Uncle Junior, but admitedly he hasn't ran well since he beat BK last time.
Report wellchief January 31, 2013 8:05 PM GMT
When the handicap entries are released, I will be very interested in Shakalakaboomboom.

I assume if he is fit and well, he'll be aimed at the Festival Handicap Chase on day 1.  Had my eye on him for the Hennesey, but unfortunately a non runner.  He isn't in the betting for a single race at the Festival, but I hope he turns up.

He travelled superbly in the National, like the best horse in the race.  He jumped with enthusiasm from the front, and simply didn't stay and really weakened when headed 2 out.  That was off 149 and has now been dropped to 148, which I think is very workable.

I assume BJG will be on board, which will be a big plus, and I think a stiff 3m on good ground at the festival will be right up his street, and he'd be one of my biggest fancies.

....This is where someone says he is out for the season Sad
Report HaylingBilly January 31, 2013 8:07 PM GMT
wellchief - I am not a fan of the race either but I kept thinking I am missing a trick here so get on and allow yourself to sleep well tonight. I am on @ 8's too. I also agree Uncle Junior is a threat on a nice racing weight now.
Report HaylingBilly January 31, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
...and weirdly I was on Shaka in last years National. Where has he been since !!!
Report Rampage Jackson January 31, 2013 8:15 PM GMT
fairly sure i read shaka was out for the season as the reason he wasnt entered in this years grand national
Report wellchief January 31, 2013 8:18 PM GMT
Been wondering the same mate.

He's been in the National betting all year, but has not been given an entry.  I'm thinking he is injured and out for the season, or they are saving him for the Festival.

If he was injured during the National (may explain why he folded so quickly), it doesn't explain why he was given an entry in the Hennessey.

Looking through his form he has never ran on heavy, and all of this wins have been on good or good to soft, so hopefully avoiding the winter weather, and hoping for the usual good to soft day on one at the Festival.
Report wellchief January 31, 2013 8:19 PM GMT
Cheers RJ.

Probably explains why he isn't in any of the betting.
Report duffy February 1, 2013 12:26 AM GMT
think there was a piece in the post this week stating he was out.
Report thesecret February 1, 2013 1:41 AM GMT
Wonderful Charm for the World Hurdle 25's BV ...NRFB.....

And to the OP/anyone going with Merry King,might want to go the NRFB route too, he could be Kim Muir bound....
Report jasey February 2, 2013 9:52 AM GMT
Tap Night arkle 40/1 or 9/1 place on here,i can see a big price horse placing in this race and is owned by JP so price could be halfed come race
Report frankalsoran60 February 2, 2013 12:06 PM GMT
Fleminstar 11/1 with boyles for the gold back if n/runner in thegold cup and champion hurdle with the firm
Report stevo1 February 2, 2013 9:23 PM GMT
Salsify in Foxhunters given good/soft at worse 7/1!!
Report Howdi February 2, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
Flemenstar if goes for Rynair


Menorah at decent price for whereever he goes when he is good he is very good
Report Colldogg February 2, 2013 11:19 PM GMT
At the moment the 3 big price Cheltenham bets I'm most excited about are Melodic Rendezvous 25/1 ew in the Supreme Novices, Menorah at 14s in the Ryanair but the one I have the best feeling about is Module at 40/1 ew in the Jewson.

He's won every completed start so far over fences and beaten some decent yardsticks along the way. Ok they may not be top class Grade 1 horses in Hinterland, Colour Squadron and Sivola De Sivola but he is a horse who could be anything. I'm sure he has the ability to be an even better horse than Nacarat for Tom George.

Captain Conan's performance today was not that of a short price festival fave and its a wide open race. Let's hope their is still a lot left in the tank for Module!
Report Ramruma February 4, 2013 7:05 AM GMT
Benefficient in the Arkle @10 TBP @70 FTW. He is due to run in the Jewson but does not stay and trainer has said he will be running for a place not the win. The hope is that when they see how the Arkle is cutting up as Simonsig scares off the competition, they will redirect him to the shorter race where it will be easier to be placed: more prize money; fewer runners.
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