Cheltenham Festival
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Been looking into the recent going for the Trials day compared to the Festival that same year.
I am aware that until recently, watering the course in March was the norm, and weather conditions are hugely variable year to year but:-
If you look at the last 10 years, almost without exception the ground in March is only one going change faster than the going in January.
Going in Jan was G/S 6 times in the last 10 years and became G or G (G/S places) in 5/6 following festivals. The other time it remained G/S.
The ground was described as Heavy just twice in Jan and became S (G/S places) and G/S (S places).
When Soft it became G/S (G places).
My point is whatever the ground is next week, we can assume the ground will be a bit faster come March but not a lot faster. The current going according to their website is Soft over the whole course, however with melting snow, if the racing goes ahead it will surely be heavy in places if not all over.
By my reaconing the ground in March will be no better than Soft with G/S in places or G/S with S in places. If the weather remains poor it may even go the other way and remain heavy!
A lot of waffle and speculation I know but personally it has made me think twice about going in Ante Post on some of the horses I think will prefer the better going like Grandouet and First Leiutenant.
I am aware that until recently, watering the course in March was the norm, and weather conditions are hugely variable year to year but:-
If you look at the last 10 years, almost without exception the ground in March is only one going change faster than the going in January.
Going in Jan was G/S 6 times in the last 10 years and became G or G (G/S places) in 5/6 following festivals. The other time it remained G/S.
The ground was described as Heavy just twice in Jan and became S (G/S places) and G/S (S places).
When Soft it became G/S (G places).
My point is whatever the ground is next week, we can assume the ground will be a bit faster come March but not a lot faster. The current going according to their website is Soft over the whole course, however with melting snow, if the racing goes ahead it will surely be heavy in places if not all over.
By my reaconing the ground in March will be no better than Soft with G/S in places or G/S with S in places. If the weather remains poor it may even go the other way and remain heavy!
A lot of waffle and speculation I know but personally it has made me think twice about going in Ante Post on some of the horses I think will prefer the better going like Grandouet and First Leiutenant.
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yea good points worm its hard betting antepost due to quessing the going for the week but im looking at horses at min who preffer the cut in going as cant see it changing much at min as we speak its trying to snow here in chelt and is -2 out there i cant see racing being on next week and if this snow does go away only going to make going heavy would u want to run your horse on ground like that with only weeks to festival an bottom him i dont think so
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YOUR REASONING ONLY HAS RELEVANCE IF YOU BELIEVE THE GOING DESCRIPTIONS ARE ALWAYS ACCURATE.
THEY ARE NOT. NOT BY A LONG CHALK. |
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I agree flyingbolt; how many times have we seen the first race on Tues described as G/S only for the official going to be changed by the Champion hurdle!
My point really is the ground is unlikely to change a great deal over the next 6-7 wks. Based on what it is right now I would be happy making an ante post bet on any horses requiring a bit of cut; but would personally tread very carefully with regards to horses needing it faster. As stated previously its all speculation; the vast majority of my betting will be made on the day when going, trainer form, jockeys, opposition and all sorts of other factors can be taken into consideration! |
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how can you possibly forcast the weather for the next 6-7 weeks... It will only take 10 days or so of dry weather and they'll have the watering cans out. Cheltenham drains stupidly well.
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Think the OP is being very sensible myself,prospect of soft ground this year is very real.
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i too think this year is very different to others recently
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Ah. The words nailed over the poor house door:
This time you thought it would be different.  |
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Only the total ignorant would say its going to be normal cheltenham going right now.
Of course its possible we will,we all know how will it drains,but the FACT is we have had a lot more rain than normal since the summer,and now we have a load of snow that has to melt into the ground. Nowt wrong with looking at yer punting bearing all that in mind. |
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The weather outlook makes racing on Saturday look unlikely but that does not change your point about the going in March. I share the view of others that 3 weeks of drying winds would make a big difference but the meeting is relatively early starting March 12 so if the course management try tro conserve the moisture in the ground for as long as possible, soft on the opening day is a possibility. As we know all too well in Somerset lately, drainage only works if the water has somewhere to go.
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For the anoraks, I calculate going adjustments using my own standards, class allowance etc. and have the following for the last few years.
The numbers are worked as seconds per mile slow or fast, with the official going in brackets. 1/1/2009 -3.9 (G/S) 24/1/2009 -9.2 (Hvy - Sp) 12/3/2009 -0.6 (G/S) 13/3/2009 -1.4 (G/S - Sp) 1/1/2010 -2.2 worsening to -3.6 during the day (S - G/Sp) 30/1/2010 -6.8 (S) 18/3/2010 +1.8 (G G/Sp) 19/3/2010 -0.6 worsening to -1.7 (started Good ended Soft) 1/1/2011 -1.8 (G/S) 29/1/2011 -3.2 (G/S Gp) 17/3/2011 +3.7 (G - G/Sp) 18/3/2011 +3.8 (G) 1/1/2012 -0.3 (G/S - Gp) 28/1/2012 -1 (G/S) 15/3/2012 +0.9 (G - G/Sp) 16/3/2012 +1.5 (G - G/Sp) Nothing for this year yet, but the numbers on the new course this season were -8.7 on the Friday and -12 on the Saturday. After taking everything into account, my considered opinion is that it doesn't matter what happens between now and the end of Feb, if we get a dry March they will be watering the weekend before the festival - if not sooner. |
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buddeliea
I don't agree. The most likely thing to happen is that it will dry up as we approach spring and that it does so quickly at Cheltenham. It does it nearly every year. This year could of course be an exception but backing soft ground horses in that hope ante post will lose you money in the long run. For myself I'm quite happy to do my research between now and then and take a firm view after I've timed the first race. |
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The twist on that for me is actually to be far more wary of backing horse AP on the assumption it will be the normal ground. By the same token it is sensible to keep soft ground horses in the thought process longer in case it does happen.
It may well turn out to be good ground but I think all that anyone is saying is that the chances of it being soft are much greater this year, that's all |
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Cheltenham is known as a good draining course, but as someone pointed out, it will only drain well if there's somewhere for the water to drain to. Last year was one of the wettest summers' in history, going into the start of the season the ground was already at saturation point. When was the last New Years Day meet to be abandoned due to rain?
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I have horses like Oscar Whisky for the CH and Tidal Bay for the gold cup at huge odds for small outlay,in case its soft.Others i have backed with the VC offer so if they dont run i get another bet.
That will not lose me much money at all if it aint soft,but i stand to gain a lot if it is. Most of my bets will be done when nrnb kicks in or on the day. If others are punting with an eye on the weather i see nowt wrong at all with that,its there choice and personally i think it wise,as its been a freak 6 months or so. Ane Roo is correct,some of us are just saying the chances are greater this year,no one is saying it WILL be soft. |
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I'd certainly agree that the chances are greater this year and a good discussion anything Cheltenham related is enjoyable.
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