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IrisDeBalme
19 Jan 13 22:21
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
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Do you think a horse can win the Gold Cup having NOT run in either the King George and the Lexus.  Bobs Worth although winning the Hennesey in good style did not turn up for either the Lexus or the King George, most winners of the Gold Cup do follow this route. 


Does anyone have any stats to substantiate this?

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Replies: 68
By:
Brooksielad
When: 19 Jan 13 22:30
You have to take into account that If a horse is deemed good enough to win a Gold Cup they would usually pitch up in either one of them races, depending if there trained in Ireland or the UK. Don't worry about that stat, I'm pretty sure Bobs Worth won't go out on the 2nd circuit thinking damn I didn't run in the King George or Lexus I've got f o o k all chance of winning this. These sort of stats are quite laughable.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 19 Jan 13 22:31
10 of last 11 Gold Cup winners were 1st or 2nd in the KG or Lexus,
14 of last 15 Gold Cup winners contested the KG or Lexus,
Working from memory so i could be slightly out,Think it's a case of the top horses head for these races hence they are such strong races from a stats viewpoint but Bobs Worth is still looking like the one to beat atm.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 19 Jan 13 22:41
Ok just checked(very slow internet tonight)
9 of last 10 GC winners were 1st or 2nd in KG/Lexus
13 of last 15 GC winners ran in either race,
last 12 GC winners in a row contested either race,
Thought i was a bit out.
By:
jasey
When: 19 Jan 13 22:51
I love stats and use trends but this is one not to take notice off when considering Bobs Worth
I think BW and SDC will be doing a first if one of them win,don't think a horse as won three different races in three consecutive years
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 13 08:19
Personally would tabe absolutely no notice of the stat.
If Bobsworth could run right handed he would have been in the KG,and probably won.
As for the Lexus,may be wrong,but i dont think its a race the trainer sends horses to.

Most important thing is hes beaten the Lexus winner,and has great course form,Hes also a good stayer who jumps well.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 08:49
Thanks, I thought it was a strong stat as I have always found this stat as a strong pointer to the Gold Cup...  Take Synchronised for example, even he went to the Lexus and won it and went on to the Gold Cup... the point I am making is that an unlikely winner of the Gold Cup came into consideration because of this stat.  I also think the very best horses turn up to the very best races and it raises them a notch for them a little gives them that experience really...

I would have liked to see Bobs Worth to race against these at level weights to see how good he was... as he did beat Tidal Bay who was giving him 6lb (for a 3length beating)... i do think Tidal Bay would have reversed that form tbf

But BW winning the Gold Cup? Im with the stat on this one...
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 13 09:08
I'm a big Tidal Bay fan and backed himm in the Hennessey,but even with the weights at level i dont think TB would have won,looked to me that Bobsworth had more if needed.

By all means use the stat to determine your bets,or to dismiss horses,if you want to,thats up to you of course.

If i liked Bobsworth for the Gold Cup,which i do,think hes got everything a Gold Cup winner needs,then i would not be looking at races he aint run in,but the ones he has run in and the ones hes entered in to get him spot on come March.He stays 3m2 easily,and loves Cheltenham.

You wont see him against the Gold Cup horses at level weights before March,so really you have to weigh it all up and decide if his price is for you.
Ive not backed him,gambled on him not winning the HennesseySadbut on the day i should be in a position to,should the price be right for me.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Jan 13 09:44
Agree with that completely budd. Watching the Hennessy you knew from a mile out that BW was going to win and all that TB did in the Lexus was frank that form. The ground in the Hennessy didn't turn out to be too bad and if it did actually turn out to be soft, that would be only reason to doubt BW - otherwise he looks rock solid and a very worthy favourite.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 20 Jan 13 11:03
The stat is meaningless when you consider Bobs Worth beat the Lexus winner quite cosily. I know he was rec 6lb but it was a lot easier than the winning margin suggested.

Are you suggesting Bobs Worth was not aimed at either of these races because Henderson thinks he wasn't good enough? I'd put it more down to the fact that one of his worst performances came at Kempton and he already had a top notch Kempton specialist in his yard.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 20 Jan 13 11:05
Also didn't Imperial Commander get stuffed in the KG before winning his gold cup? The two races are very different.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 12:07
If I recall Imperial needed gaps between his races, and he was not quite suited to Kempton but atleast competed in the KG which validates the stats.
By:
jasey
When: 20 Jan 13 13:49
Why did Bobs Worth need to take part in the king george or lexus
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 14:11
I feel these races give the horse that vital experience in competing at the highest level, horses come on loads from that experience.  Take in the Lexus, Flemenstar didnt quite get the trip but that experience hopefully should see him handle the trip in the Irish Hennessey and he would have not got the experience in a race like that running in a handicap with a few good horses (Tidal, First Lieutenant and T43) and loads of plodders in it.

Given the Lexus or King George is there a better races than these to test the credentials of a future Gold Cup runner... No. I think the timing of the race is perfect. The reason why Henderson did not go for the KG or Lexus... could be anything... but if you have the right horse with the right credentials you should be looking atleast these two races if you want to be considered a worthy Gold Cup winner.

The Argento chase will probably be postponed next week so will be interesting where BW turns up... but at 3/1 and not contested either KG or the Lexus is a bit of a joke.  The horse needs to show more before he is shorter than the likes of Long Run.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 13 14:29
Well i think its a bit of a joke looking at races horses dont run in,rather than the ones they do run in,when judging a horse chances of success in a future race.
Each to their own of course,but i'm sure Mr Henderson knows what hes doing.
As i said before,he cant run right handed well,and the trainer does not send horses to the Lexus,he has his own ideas about training Bobsworth,and i see no reason why he cannot win the Gold Cup,based on his campaign.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 20 Jan 13 14:33
Also noticed he's never ran on soft ground so could be a reason he avoiding the races. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Bobs worth has plenty of big race experience imo and he finishing in front of the first two home in the lexus is good enough for me.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 14:54
budd, my point is for Gold cup winners these races provide the winner... the reason being its probably the most competitive bar Gold Cup and they have then 3 months to prepare them for Chelt in light of that experience... that is the point.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 13 14:58
yep me too,and the trainers vast experience of training top horses would give me enough confidence as well.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 13 15:03
yes they have often provided the winner,but dont mean they will this time.

Look i see your point iris,and some people do agree with you.

Personally i say stuff the stats,and if Bobsworth is good enough he can win the GC with his campaign mapped out by his trainer.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 15:09
yes thats a fair point I suppose... I tend to like the stats, yes they can be wrong but often put you in the right direction for finding a winner.
By:
flyingbolt
When: 20 Jan 13 15:39
jasey

There has been a horse who won 3 different races at the festival in consecutive years.

His name was Flyingbolt.
By:
Colonel Sanders
When: 20 Jan 13 15:40
I definitely think this stat is a case of correlation rather than causation

Gold Cup winners are generally pretty good horses. The Gold Cup is a G1 over a staying trip. The King George and Lexus are both Grade 1 races over staying trips

It seems reasonable that most "good horses" (over staying trips) will compete in either the Lexus of the KG before the Gold Cup

I suppose the question is: Do you reckon Bobs Worth didn't compete in either race because:

1. His trainer didn't think he was good enough to take a hand in the finish
2. His trainer thought these races didn't fit into his programme too well and/or had another horse more suited to track/conditions

If it's 1 the stat is relevant, if it's 2 the stat is not relevant
By:
flyingbolt
When: 20 Jan 13 15:49
Correct,Colonel Sanders.

The stat is meaningless. The previous decade at least 4 Gold Cup winners didn't run in either the Lexus or the KG.
By:
jasey
When: 20 Jan 13 18:05
Flyingbolt.
What races did he win
By:
penzance
When: 20 Jan 13 18:34
don't think Jodami,did.
Did win in Ireland though.I recall.
May have been the Hennessy.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 20 Jan 13 18:48
Cool Dawn the last horse to win GC without having a prep in KG or Lexus(1998)
Before him it was Imperial Call (1996)
By:
booster
When: 20 Jan 13 20:06
I don't really understand why a Gold Cup winner needs to run in a King George or Lexus, particularly as one is on a track he doesn't like and one is always run in a bog. The king George winer was always viewed as a completely different type to a Gold Cup horse, probably until Best Mate won it. Perhaps the most important things are his form round Cheltenham and particularly at the festival, his most recent form and his profile, which is very progressive. I'm probably the only one on here who thinks the 3-1 NRNB is outstanding value but I really can't see why he shouldn't win.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 20:42
Booster 3/1 nrnb is an outstanding price??? Id wait for the day then you might get 4/1 or even 5/1 the field.

In the last 15 years top trainers like Nicholls and Henderson have prepped their horses in the xmas feature for March. If Henderson thought it wasnt viable for Bobs Worth to turn up in the KG was probably something to do with Long Run participating as well... but accept it or not attitude towards the KG has changed massively over the years and the best horses do turn up for the race and are in the finish in the Gold Cup.

The Lexus this year was a fantastic renewal with each of the first 4 finishers strides of each other... for me the benchmark has been set. The winner likely to come from these two races.

Will be interesting to see what Henderson thinks in particular with who has the better chance Long Run or Bobs Worth for the blue riband... considering they are going to use cheekpieces for Long Run as a result of his run in the KG... Henderson (being a trainer of integrity) should tell the connections forget the cheekpieces... Bobs gonna win anyway... and advice the Cohens to snap up the 3/1 immediately...
By:
alleged22
When: 20 Jan 13 20:45
gold cup winner imperial comander was smashed 70 L and 58 L in king georges, great addition to the stat that these 2 races throw up the winner
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 20:48
Alleged and IC did not like the course... but its a good point as they used it as a preparation knowing it wouldnt suit the horse.
By:
jasey
When: 20 Jan 13 21:17
I would turn it on its head and say forget any horse that run in the king george.
Biggest guide this year will be hennessey and lexus.
The king george will be a better guide for the ryanair.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 21:23
Jasey... are you saying Long Run wont win Gold Cup?
By:
alleged22
When: 20 Jan 13 21:28
the KG i agree is also a good pointer for the ryanair
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 21:29
I suppose Riverside theatre used it for a prep last year?
By:
jasey
When: 20 Jan 13 21:33
Well based on stats its against him isn't it
By:
alleged22
When: 20 Jan 13 21:39
our vic IC and albertas run also ran in the king george and then won the ryanair
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 20 Jan 13 21:40
to be fair the losers of the KG/Lexus tend to go for the ryanair as the distance is seen as the failure of seeing out 3 miles, for example Flemenstar will have another go at 3 miles if he fails will probably head for the ryanair (2m5f) as will a handful of others.

winners of the KG/Lexus tend to go on and win the Gold Cup.
By:
jasey
When: 20 Jan 13 21:50
Iris your stating the obvious,its good guide thats all
By:
booster
When: 21 Jan 13 09:06
Irisdebalme, let's wait and see how the Irish Hennessy pans out. To start with, the winner's going to have a hard race in soft/heavy ground and, if as seems likely, it's a bunch finish, surely nothing from it can shorten. Bobs Worth's got his feet up, best form in the book in the Hennessy and his RSA win looks very strong too. Long Run actually beat a non stayer in the King George but no doubt is a very good horse although I don't think he'd have won the Denman last year if Geraghty had been harder on Burton Port and his Gold Cup 3rd was arguably one of his weakest performances. Add in the fact that Henderson in all probability will already have had 6 or 7 winners and many in the better races, and I can't imagine any bookie wanting to go 4s or 5s on the Friday morning. If you think so you can lay to you heart's content on here with the added possibility he doesn't run and have a free bet on the winner on the day of the race.
By:
Regular Fries
When: 21 Jan 13 09:26
I was going to say Denman won the hennessy and then the gold cup but he didn't, he came second in the GC that year. He won the hennessy and the lexus the year he won the GC.
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