Cheltenham Festival
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RSA Antepost
Dynaste - Has looked impressive in his 3 chase wins this season, with his most impressive performance coming in the Feltham at Christmas. But it isn't very hard to pick holes in that form. Not just most, ALL the horses he beat are not even close to being good enough to even place in an RSA. As nice a horse as Dynaste looks his price of 5/2 is very short indeed.
He has 3 big stats to overcome.
1) 9 of last 10 RSA winners were Irish Bred Chasers.
2) No winner of Feltham has won the RSA
3) All 10 of past winners have had only 1 season hurdling.
Add to that the general poor record of World Hurdle runners and the fact that the last 3 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett and that 5/5 past winners came in first 2 of either Reynoldstown at Ascot or Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on their penultimate start. So you can see there are plenty of things against Dynaste. So 5/2 is by far the worst antepost price of the festival.
Boston Bob - Nice big chaser type, fits all trends for RSA winner, ran in Albert Bartlett, Irish Bred, only 1 season hurdling. He won his only point to point well and jumped impressively on his chasing debut in December. He should line up in the Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown next which means he'd fit every trend for this.
His hurdles runs showed he is a strong stayer, he was fastest home from 2nd last to the line in Albert Bartlett and had 3 other good hurdles wins under his belt too. He should improve considerably for going chasing and if he wins the Dr PJ he is the one they'll have to beat.
Rocky Creek - Another trends fitter, being Irish bred and having run in Albert Bartlett, I'd hope to see him go for the Reynoldstown at Ascot next as the hill finish would suite this strong stayer. There's a nagging feeling he may be being trained to peak for the Hennessy next season and will not be fully mature enough to win an RSA. But none the less he's a smashing good horse and will not be stopping up that hill.
Back in Focus - Very good strong stayer too when conditions are right and those are soft ground. Owner/Trainer have Boston Bob too and may well skip the festival with this horse and save him for some good soft ground races next season. He looks the perfect Welsh National type to me. But wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in the Hennessy if the ground came soft again. But as for the RSA he's an unlikely runner in my view.
Aupcharlie - Very solid 3 miler, was just nabbed on the line in the 3m Grade 1 at Christmas by Stablemate Back in Focus. But conditions favoured the latter that day. Back on good ground he would have reversed that form in my opinion. That day Mullins had suggested the Jewson for Aupcharlie, but personally I'd find it the wrong race for him as he nearly won a 3mile G1 on soft. He's also entered in a 3m Grade 2 at Naas on Saturday. So my inkling is he may join Boston Bob in RSA. You Must Know Me is also owned by the Potts and he could well be aimed at the Jewson.
Super Duty - Was running a fine race behind Simonsig at Aintree when he blundered the last, it would have been interesting to see how close he would have got that day, yet still got 2nd. His best runs last term came on good ground and his 3 chase runs this season have been on soft. First time out was over a too short 2m, nto he hit the last and it cost his chance. Finally he won his 3rd start at Cheltenham where he was staying on well. He's a very solid horse, he's Irish bred and he's had 1 season hurdling. He looks a nice type, but may find one too classy come the RSA.
Mount Benbulben - Here's another perfect trends fit, having run in Albert Bartlett last season. He's had the kind of Mouse Morris prep like FL last season, lots of chases early in the season. First run was over too short a trip, then nto he unfortunately fell when going well. He won his next start on soft over 2m5f, then unfortunately an early mistake and rider lost his irons in 3m Grade 1 at Christmas he was pulled up.
Elliott smartly sent him back out a week later over a short trip of 2m1f to get some jumping practice in. His jumping was much improved and he went close to winning. Elliott thinks a lot of this horse, he will likely have his next start in the Grade 1 Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown Hennessy meeting and should he run well I'd imagine he'll head for the RSA. Elliott has said last season how the horse would prefer good ground so he looks a possible value pick at this stage.
Other possibly interesting horses who would be worth keeping an eye on would be Sire Collonges & Dedigout. they could both feature if they run improved races nto.
Suggested bets
At this stage it would be best to wait on Boston Bob until he's declared for Dr PJ Moriarty at Hennessy meeting on 9th Feb before betting but 7/1 remains a good price.
Mount Benbulben e/w @ 33/1
Aupcharlie e/w @ 16/1
Both with VC non runner free bet. Both seem over priced for RSA, should they impress on their next starts they will likely take their chance here. If they do not then they may be sent to Jewson route in which case you get free bet.
Dynaste - Has looked impressive in his 3 chase wins this season, with his most impressive performance coming in the Feltham at Christmas. But it isn't very hard to pick holes in that form. Not just most, ALL the horses he beat are not even close to being good enough to even place in an RSA. As nice a horse as Dynaste looks his price of 5/2 is very short indeed.
He has 3 big stats to overcome.
1) 9 of last 10 RSA winners were Irish Bred Chasers.
2) No winner of Feltham has won the RSA
3) All 10 of past winners have had only 1 season hurdling.
Add to that the general poor record of World Hurdle runners and the fact that the last 3 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett and that 5/5 past winners came in first 2 of either Reynoldstown at Ascot or Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on their penultimate start. So you can see there are plenty of things against Dynaste. So 5/2 is by far the worst antepost price of the festival.
Boston Bob - Nice big chaser type, fits all trends for RSA winner, ran in Albert Bartlett, Irish Bred, only 1 season hurdling. He won his only point to point well and jumped impressively on his chasing debut in December. He should line up in the Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown next which means he'd fit every trend for this.
His hurdles runs showed he is a strong stayer, he was fastest home from 2nd last to the line in Albert Bartlett and had 3 other good hurdles wins under his belt too. He should improve considerably for going chasing and if he wins the Dr PJ he is the one they'll have to beat.
Rocky Creek - Another trends fitter, being Irish bred and having run in Albert Bartlett, I'd hope to see him go for the Reynoldstown at Ascot next as the hill finish would suite this strong stayer. There's a nagging feeling he may be being trained to peak for the Hennessy next season and will not be fully mature enough to win an RSA. But none the less he's a smashing good horse and will not be stopping up that hill.
Back in Focus - Very good strong stayer too when conditions are right and those are soft ground. Owner/Trainer have Boston Bob too and may well skip the festival with this horse and save him for some good soft ground races next season. He looks the perfect Welsh National type to me. But wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in the Hennessy if the ground came soft again. But as for the RSA he's an unlikely runner in my view.
Aupcharlie - Very solid 3 miler, was just nabbed on the line in the 3m Grade 1 at Christmas by Stablemate Back in Focus. But conditions favoured the latter that day. Back on good ground he would have reversed that form in my opinion. That day Mullins had suggested the Jewson for Aupcharlie, but personally I'd find it the wrong race for him as he nearly won a 3mile G1 on soft. He's also entered in a 3m Grade 2 at Naas on Saturday. So my inkling is he may join Boston Bob in RSA. You Must Know Me is also owned by the Potts and he could well be aimed at the Jewson.
Super Duty - Was running a fine race behind Simonsig at Aintree when he blundered the last, it would have been interesting to see how close he would have got that day, yet still got 2nd. His best runs last term came on good ground and his 3 chase runs this season have been on soft. First time out was over a too short 2m, nto he hit the last and it cost his chance. Finally he won his 3rd start at Cheltenham where he was staying on well. He's a very solid horse, he's Irish bred and he's had 1 season hurdling. He looks a nice type, but may find one too classy come the RSA.
Mount Benbulben - Here's another perfect trends fit, having run in Albert Bartlett last season. He's had the kind of Mouse Morris prep like FL last season, lots of chases early in the season. First run was over too short a trip, then nto he unfortunately fell when going well. He won his next start on soft over 2m5f, then unfortunately an early mistake and rider lost his irons in 3m Grade 1 at Christmas he was pulled up.
Elliott smartly sent him back out a week later over a short trip of 2m1f to get some jumping practice in. His jumping was much improved and he went close to winning. Elliott thinks a lot of this horse, he will likely have his next start in the Grade 1 Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown Hennessy meeting and should he run well I'd imagine he'll head for the RSA. Elliott has said last season how the horse would prefer good ground so he looks a possible value pick at this stage.
Other possibly interesting horses who would be worth keeping an eye on would be Sire Collonges & Dedigout. they could both feature if they run improved races nto.
Suggested bets
At this stage it would be best to wait on Boston Bob until he's declared for Dr PJ Moriarty at Hennessy meeting on 9th Feb before betting but 7/1 remains a good price.
Mount Benbulben e/w @ 33/1
Aupcharlie e/w @ 16/1
Both with VC non runner free bet. Both seem over priced for RSA, should they impress on their next starts they will likely take their chance here. If they do not then they may be sent to Jewson route in which case you get free bet.
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