Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme
Jezki - looks a quality horse, won the best trials so far and was impressive in both the time he posted and fashion he won at Christmas. But 7/2 antepost about a horse who has no form with the other top 4/5 in the betting is far too short to be touching.
River Maigue - Lost on his debut when getting weight from Dodging Bullets, won nicely at Kempton and has shortened quite a bit since for no real reason. Looks a nice horse but 2nd fav is really not warrented by what he's achieved. Might well lose Barry Geraghty as Jock at Festival if AP rides Jezki. Makes no appeal antepost.
MTOY - Looked superb when winning well on his last start despite being keen, is one who looks to have plenty of improvement in a fast run race. Current fav for Betfair Hurdle which JP has run two top novices in last 3 years, Darlan and GMOOH. One won and the other looked the winner before coming to grief. Will likely be cut to near favouritism if winning. Looks some value at current odds.
Dodging Bullets - Looked like the winner coming to the last in the Triumph before finishing 4th just a short head from Grumeti. That form looks solid given Countrywide Flame winning a Grade 1 this season. He won his first start this season before having to make his own running nto when defeating River Maigue. His lastest start was when a good 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle. At 14/1 he looks superb e/w value as the slow pace of his last 2 runs is not what he needs, he also has a huge advantage in having been to and run well at the festival before.
Melodic Rendezvous - Won the Tolworth which is never a useful guide to a Supreme winner and the above two would appeal far more at the prices.
Suggested Bets.
My Tent or Yours 12/1
Dodging Bullets e/w 14/1
Jezki - looks a quality horse, won the best trials so far and was impressive in both the time he posted and fashion he won at Christmas. But 7/2 antepost about a horse who has no form with the other top 4/5 in the betting is far too short to be touching.
River Maigue - Lost on his debut when getting weight from Dodging Bullets, won nicely at Kempton and has shortened quite a bit since for no real reason. Looks a nice horse but 2nd fav is really not warrented by what he's achieved. Might well lose Barry Geraghty as Jock at Festival if AP rides Jezki. Makes no appeal antepost.
MTOY - Looked superb when winning well on his last start despite being keen, is one who looks to have plenty of improvement in a fast run race. Current fav for Betfair Hurdle which JP has run two top novices in last 3 years, Darlan and GMOOH. One won and the other looked the winner before coming to grief. Will likely be cut to near favouritism if winning. Looks some value at current odds.
Dodging Bullets - Looked like the winner coming to the last in the Triumph before finishing 4th just a short head from Grumeti. That form looks solid given Countrywide Flame winning a Grade 1 this season. He won his first start this season before having to make his own running nto when defeating River Maigue. His lastest start was when a good 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle. At 14/1 he looks superb e/w value as the slow pace of his last 2 runs is not what he needs, he also has a huge advantage in having been to and run well at the festival before.
Melodic Rendezvous - Won the Tolworth which is never a useful guide to a Supreme winner and the above two would appeal far more at the prices.
Suggested Bets.
My Tent or Yours 12/1
Dodging Bullets e/w 14/1
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Replies: 61
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Have backed Dodging Bullets and Melodic Rendezvous, think the likely fast pace will suit both.
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No mention of Puffin Billy??
I realise he may run in Neptune,but should still get a mention imo. Big player if he runs. |
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I like Melodic as well,hes another that could run in Neptune,but i have backed him in both,same as Puffin.
Wherever they turn up they will run big races imo. Melodic looks a proper genuine racehorse to my eyes. Puffin has looked good on the bridle with a touch of class,cant wait to see exactly how good he is. |
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I too like MTOY and have him at 20s. Undecided as to whether to go in again as his tendency to pull leaves me with a slight concern how well he will finish in a better race.
I agree with the comments about DB but for some reason struggle to get enthused about the horse. Considering his form, 14/1 is a very fair price. The only other one I have backed so far is Court Minstrel before the Tolworth. Clearly he wants much better ground than he got at Sandown but whilst he traveled pretty well, I would have thought a horse with the class needed to win race like this would have still finished closer. The talk is now handicaps, but still a great price compared to DB and RM based on their running at Cheltenham |
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roo
The much stronger pace in the Supreme might help MTOY settle. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off him. It is hard to pick holes in DB, even if he isn't very exciting! He ran a good race in a really strong renewal of the Triumph last reason. He ran well in a tactical race on a course which probably didn't suit behind Darlan last time. He beat RM in another tactical affair at Cheltenham before that conceding 7lbs. Any idea why RM is shorter? He also has no other target. I've put DB in a silly ew multiple bet but won't have a bet proper (or maybe not at all) until they go NRNB the week before. |
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I think DB is one of the biggest ricks at the whole festival. Just cant work out why he is 14/1 and he has become my biggest AP bet over the last few weeks. Im almost getting to the stage where he is so big, its starting to worry me.
This is his confirmed target, he will be the main contender from arguably the most powerful stable in the game, has very good course form, and even more importantly, very good festival form. He has very good form this season, and the way the race will be run looks ideal. Whats not to like? I understand people saying he is more exposed than others, but that does require a leap of faith on what some of his rivals might be. I just cant have him out of the frame. |
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ff - your points re DB are absolutely right with the exception of it being a really strong renewal of the Triumph.
No idea why RM is shorter, perhaps the 'potential' argument. At the prices, still prefer CM from that race however. |
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All about opinions roo but I would say that the subsequent performances of the first 4 home in the Triumph prove it was a strong renewal. Winner ran well on the flat and won the Fighting Fifth, 2nd won the Punchestown G1 for 4YO's, Grumeti won at Aintree and susbsequnetly ran well on the flat and DB has hardly let the form down.
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I am keen to get The Festival off to a flyer this year so have spent many an hour studying this one this year - comments on here from people whose views I respect, form, trends and videos. I have gone for MTOY @ 20/1 as my big AP bet to kick off The Festival. Was delighted to see his last run. I know the stable like him from an early visit to 7Barrows where Barrie G was schooling him on the day I was there. My biggest fear is AP will asked to ride Jezki to justify the purchase price and BG will be forced to ride River Maigue.
Have also got River Maigue and Dodging Bullets in a fews speculative "retirement" acca's as a fallback option. |
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Nichols novice hurlers are often under rated IMO CCM as the line that they are all future chasers is often given over emphasis.
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Melodic beats DB strictly on form.Yes,Court Minstrel would have beem closer had he not hit the last in the Tolworth,but a fair difference in the distances when behind them.
Of course circumstances can alter things,but i expect the likes of RM,and DB to be below the required class. Do think RM could well have more improvement than DB,and im not writing him off completely. DB i think is probably as good now as he will be in March,that i dont think is enough. Maybe others think the same,and thats why he aint shorter. |
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I really respect Melodic but with the Neptune still an option, I cant back him just yet. Will have a saver on him if this is where he goes.
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budd, I think that is reading the form a bit too 'literally' tbh. I dont think Court Minstrel enjoyed the ground at Sandown at all so very difficult to compare the margins he was beaten by either.
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BHA official ratings DB 148, MR 145 & RM 136. Unless the ground comes up soft, there must be some possibility of both MR and RM turning out in the Neptune.
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DB is rated 156
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Of course catch me totally agree,thats why i said strictly.It aint set in stone.
And all these novices should still be improving at differing rates,so its hard to just dismiss any of them. At some stage we have to whittle it down,and im just going on my own personal views at this moment. Could change though!! Re DB,hes trained by Nicholls,arguably has as good form as any other horse and is not really shortening. Tells me people maybe thinking like me. |
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have backed both my tent and dodging ew at 20s and 14s....agree totally ccm re dodging...beat river fair and square giving him weight,will travel ,course form ,trainer form and not ground dependant....ticks all the boxes bigtime and think iwill go in again...good luck all
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Festivalfanatic,
The subsequent performances of Hissaabaat and Grumeti at Punchestown and Aintree doesn't do much for the Triumph form in the greater scheme of things as they were essentially running against the same horses. Hisaabaat has really let the form down this season and while Countrywide Flame slammed Cinders And Ashes, that horse was very poor again at Kempton. I'd really question the Triumph form at the moment, and likewise the Supreme form. Darlan was impressive at Kempton but he was essentially beating other Supreme or Triumph horses as well as Raya Star. Having said all this, Dodging Bullets ran a great race in the Triumph on only his second start, and the way the Christmas Hurdle was run wouldn't have suited. However, I'd be surprised if there wasn't one or two better than him. |
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Agree re form of the Triumph and Supreme Slabster.
Maybe dangerous,maybe not,but i am ignoring horses from those races as re the festival at this stage. |
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Don't ignore Prospect Wells in most likely the Coral Cup if ground is decent
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i was meaning the championship races Roo.
Cheers for the tip mate |
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Big risk ignoring them don't you think Budd?! Every chance his years bunch could be just as bad!
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Its a risk yes,but not a big one imo mate.
I really dont rate the supreme or the triumph,and i have a feeling this years novices are a good deal better. I'm taking a stand and will live or die by it. |
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im with u catch, big fan of DB an think melodric is the main danger not intrested in jezki at 3s everyone on at big prices fair play but hes not for me
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Fair enough Budd. That's what it's all about at the end of the day! You might find out by the very first race, and can re-evaluate thereafter
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yes mate,re-evaluate is something ive been known to do before
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Just to touch on a point catch me made,
I backed Darlan last year for supreme on day of betfair hurdle.Thought he would be slashed the following day.price never moved for 2 weeks. His run at christmas looked good(i know!slow pace)had CWFlame behind.has to be best form on offer. Be warned though!having watched supreme fifty times ,its ultra competitive and best horse dont always win it£$£$£ I always want to be on top jocks for novice races.Ruby Walsh,second to nobody |
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I'm on Meldoic Rendezvous myself. Was impressed with his run at Cheltenham before christmas and then the tollworth. He is genuine, a battler, and has a great change of speed at 2miles as well as abundance of stamina to get up the hill. A great ew bet at 12/1 and Scott has already said the Supreme is his preference. At least worth a bet with NR Free bet.
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Decent performance from Un Atout to throw hat in ring for Supreme albeit on very soft ground, but happy maybe coming over as on at 42s on here before his debut. Nice back up to my Jezki wagers at 14s and 10s. But still long way to go.
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Nice position stevo
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Some great comments above, and I'm in the same position as CCM as I've gotten a little carried away on DB - can't see how his form doesn't leave him placed at least... Also agree about Ruby being the right man for the job, but has anyone heard anything about Pique Sous, as could be also be tempted there?
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Ruby might not be on DB after Un Atout today?
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Davy's ride, as long as Gigginstown don't have anything else he'd prefer to ride, which looks highly doubtful
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Correct Far lack of sleep working nights ffs.
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Pique Sous the other option for Ruby.
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Time for my pennies worth now.
I have read all of the above and my take on the form of last years supreme horses and triumph horses running this year i have taken quite literally with a pinch of salt. Most of all the prep races leading up to and including the supreme and triumphs were run on good/soft - soft. Most of them preps being in non competitive events, the exception of Darlan in the betfair hdl. Them same horses, have come out this year, and of course with the exception once again of Darlan have run on very bottomless ground and in races with no pace. So don't be surprised that if come March 12th, we do not see marked improvements in form from DB C&A et all! I have backed DB for supreme cos i feel he is a year older than this crop of novices and so should be a touch stronger, at 14/1 i think he is massive value, cannot knock the price, the horse, the prob jock in R.Walsh, or the yard. Have backed C&A (amongst others) in the Champ hdl on the back of the fact it takes a horse with both speed and stamina to win such a race, the same as it does the Supreme. The horse clearly needs good ground and a strong pace. Neither of which he has had this year to date! I cannot have Countrywide flame this year as 5 year olds do not win champ hdls. |
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Them same horses, have come out this year, and of course with the exception once again of Darlan have run on very bottomless ground and in races with no pace.
So the Xmas Hurdle was run at a good pace on decent ground was it. And after all it was the same race that Cinders and Ashes was in? |
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No didn't mean it like that at all. I meant with the exception of Darlan meaning that only Darlan was suited so well to the slow pace in the xmas race and ground conditions! The others, may well have been very inconvenienced but Darlan was not.
Not something that we don't already no, but something i thought i would point out as it seemed on this thread anyways people were starting to think of this years novices form as being quite str8 forward. My interpretation of the above anyways. Maybe wrong  I am a great believer in that your only as good as the horses around you that season, meaning that it is ridiculous just to assume that one years crop be inferior to the other. After all, the progression of novices, the top ones anyways, is to run in the next seasons top championship races, only then will we know whether they are inferior or not but i am just being cautious with the form i,e ground, slow pace, track conditions etc etc etc. |
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Any thoughts on New Years Eve travelled up well under O'Regan at Kempton. Look forward to him breaking his maiden over timber should reveal more
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