Cheltenham Festival
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Does anyone know the plans for this horse, looking at the top of the market Oscar Whiskey cant stay Champion Hurdle bound maybe,Quevega mares race as Ruby is keen for Tidal Bay to run in this and not the Gold Cup(my preferred option would be the Gold Cup 2 darts are better than one Paul if you want to be champion trainer).Which i don't know is a positive or a negative about Zaidpour(Ruby would be on board if the above happened to be correct). Reve De Silvola can't have that one,Monkslands possibility,Peddlers Cross unknown,Grand Gru Ryanair or Gold Cup,leaves me with Zaidpour, Bog Warrior or Smad Place think 14/1 Zaidpour can't be there come the day if it runs.
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I backed him on here straight after Big Bucks came out at about 16's, but was trading about 40's last time I checked.
Suggests that he won't run, but we shall see. For what its worth, I think he has a big chance. |
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I also backed him when Big Bucks came out at 16/1 and again at christmas 45ish before he was narrowly beaten noticed on Saturday that he was trading in the 60's but today down to 28's all is not lost i hope.
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Race is wide open, with the top three in the market probably not run in the race. Would love Peddlers to bounce back and win it.
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Zaidpour wants it very soft.
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Running on thursday then off to Cheltenham (reading between the lines champion if its very soft but more likely world hurdle)but looks like he's turning up.
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Hasn't he been declared for the Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday?
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Been entered but i am sure that i read in todays post the he runs on thursday.
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HRI Racing @HRI_Racing
Zaidpour and Bog Warrior clash in the Galmoy Hurdle - 5 runners also include Chicago Grey, Un Beau Matin and Dante Anna. |
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Have you seen his form figures going left-handed? I never realised how bad they were compared to going right-handed until someone pointed it out to me.
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He is also better in smaller fields.
In his jumping career the stats are LH - 22718252 RH - 1111121 6 or less runners - 12111121 7 ore more runners - 1278252 Combine the 2 and you get - 111121 with the only defeat being 2.5 lengths behind Hurricane Fly!! Not sure why he is 2nd favourite today. |
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Make that another 2 on all
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I really wouldn't write off Zaidpour after todays run. Personally I think he just ran into a good horse, but he was giving BW weight. I think those form figures for going LH are slightly bias to be honest and don't tell the whole story. Only three runs have been outside the top 2. the 7 and 8 were both 2 miles at Cheltenham, and he just doesn't have the toe for that, whilst the 5 was in France on his 8th run of the season, so I'm more than happy to write that off to a long season catching up to him. I think SkyBet offering 25/1 on him for WH is very good value. Yes he's been beaten on his last 2 starts but the weight he was giving to Monksland (who is short as 6/1) and Bog Warrior (who is as short as 8/1, but is mainly 10/1) won't be there come Cheltenham will it? I think he was a really good E/W shout at long odds. I might be completely incorrect and maybe Cheltenham will prove too much for him again but at those odds I'm willing to take the risk.
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Good points nostaw.
I don't think his form figures prove or disprove that he prefers going one way or another; it just proves all left handed races have been against much superior opposition, often over a trip much too short and ground probably too hard. That's not making excuses, but I think he's ran with gret credit this year, and will be fuming if Mullins send him the Champion Hurdle route again, when even in his novice days, people could tell he's never a 2 miler. 25/1 is a very fair price imo, but I will personally wait for NRNB if I go in again. There are about 5 of them ahead of him in the market that could easily drop out of the betting. |
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Really dont think he stays 3m well enough to figure in the WH.
Last 2 runs the winners have gone away at the end,and think they simply stay better. Yes he was giving a bit of weight away,appreciate that,but my eyes tell me he aint staying well enough to win a WH. 2 and a half mile on soft ground is his game imo. |
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What one piece of form gives this horse a chance of winning at Cheltenham please?
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Eboue, with Bucks in, I'd agree, and say there isn't one piece of form, but without him its a wide open race and you could make a case or rule out nearly all of them.
Zaidpour got beat by 2 lengths to Monksland giving 2lbs away; one is 25/1 and one is 8/1. Zaidpour got beat by Bog Warrior giving weight away, one is 25/1 and one is 10/1. At the prices, he is overpriced. Ahead of him in the betting are all far from certain to run: Quevega: Mares Oscar: Maybe Champion if soft or miss festival Peddlers: Not a certain runner and trainer talking up Aintree Hurdle Rite of Passage: Weld not mentioned the race Grands Crus: Gold Cup or Ryanair Solwhit: Trainer talking of going to France Thousand Stars: Wouldn't be suprised if they skipped it So take all them out and 25/1 is a pretty good price, especially if its soft. |
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Not if he dont stay well enough.May as well be 250/1.
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Very true, but of those at the top of the market, only Monksland, Bog Warrior and Reve have really proved they stay the WH distance.
Tidal Bay does, but there is no evidence to prove he can reproduce his chasing form into hurdles form. I wouldn't be taking the Monksland price because of 1 run, where he was given a fantastic ride, and we need to see if Reve can repeat his performance, and they are both single figures. Wide open race this year, where the vast majority will have stamina doubts. |
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TB has won the cleeve,and won well over hurdles this season.
I do see the point you are making re others not running.But if the 4 you mention all run he wont be placing imo |
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me thinks OW will go world hurdle again, henderson already has a full hand in the CH, and if it runs it wins
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another that dont stay,well he didn't last year anyway.He aint winning a WH either.
Could win the CH on soft ground though. Instead of trying to find 2 an a half milers for the WH,why not try 3 milers?? Just a thought. |
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was going as good as anything until 2 out last year, i think he deserves another chance, and clearly hendo does....
i know you got a bet for the CH budd if he did go that way who would ride him iyo? |
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yes,classic non stayer symptoms alleged.
If he runs in the CH that means its soft ground,so BG will ride him imo. Grandouet wont win on soft ground,OW might. |
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I agree with bud here.
I love Oscar but thought he was as good an example of as a non-stayer as you could wish to see last year. I know the Henderson team thought he wasn't right but to my eye he travelled like the best horse as he invariably does but he was on vapours coming to the last and I'd be surprised if he gets home well enough, in an admittedly weaker race this year, to win. Also, I had Zaidpour in all my Ten To Follow lists and have followed him closely for a long time now. I don't think he quite gets home either, and is probably a few pounds shy of the form needed to win. I'm all for backing a few long-priced horses with the potential to improve considerably and outrun their prices, but I don't see where his improvement will come from even if he does stay. What others have said about him being considerably bigger than the pair he gave weight to and lost narrowly to the last twice is a fair point, but both of those are unexposed and you wouldn't say either scream out as being good enough anyway. Something has to win though! I'd very tentatively side with Monksland at the moment (mostly on sufferance), just because he is on the up and seemed to improve markedly for the step up to three miles last time. |
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saturday will answer a lot of questions then mate
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yeh,i will probably be eating humble pie
 Hes my fav horse in training,and i really want him to win at the festival,and IF he does prove me wrong i'm just going to have to bet him at pretty short odds  ,but i aint letting him run without a bet. |
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he,s one of my favs as well mate and ive put me neck on the line and backed him to win the WH also got him in a tasty double with HF
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I think Zaidpour has pretty good form in some of his 3 mile efforts tbf. I know it was a slow pace in a small runner field but he beat VLV on the start before she finished 2nd in last years WH. Different races entirely I know, but I'm just making the case that as far as I can see, on all known form and based on their odds, I would sooner back Zaidpour at 25/1 than Bog Warrior or Monksland.
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