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wellchief
12 Jan 13 14:35
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Date Joined: 17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 4,625 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
I thought I'd start this thread for anyone who gets quotes off bookies for long term bets for Cheltenham / National Hunt races.  If you can put them here when you get the quote we can keep them all in the one place.

I tend to email bookies around this time of year, for one or two fun bets for next year.  I tend to focus on the current year's novices that I rate very highly and I think they can progress on to bigger and better things next year.  There's also those that are currently good hurdlers that look like they might have a chasing career, you normally get good prices for the Arkle and RSA.

I got the inspiration from Masterminded and Alvarado (I think) who were on Sprinter at big prices for his Arkle win, because they'd backed him before the Supreme.

Prices available for next year:

Simonsig: 10/1 King George
Simonsig: 20/1 Gold Cup
Grandouet: 33/1 Arkle
Oscar Whisky: 16/1 Arkle
Oscar Whisky: 16/1 Jewson

The thread is only a bit of fun, because you'd never go in big on a race 15 months away, but it's nice knowing you might have some tasty prices if you can second guess trainers plans.
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Report Mr Eboue January 12, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
That 10/1 on Simonsig will be 9/4 when he scoots in at Cheltenham.
Report BJG January 12, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
Who is the 10/1 with plz? link
Report wellchief January 12, 2013 5:29 PM GMT
B365 mate.

You have to email them for a price because they're not available on their site.  I had to take 8's with Paddy Power because 365 wouldn't give me a price, but when one of my mates emailled them (nostaw_01 on here) they offered him 10's.

All the others I asked (VC, Laddies, Hills and Stan James) wouldn't give me a price.
Report wellchief January 12, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
365 just offered me 10/1 for Oscar Whisky for the Arkle and Jewson.

FYI, the 16's above is with Paddy Power for those who may be interested.
Report Far From Trouble January 12, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Oscar Whisky wont be winning the Arkle or Jewson mate

Oscars Well has a squeak though Silly
Report Far From Trouble January 12, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Idiot, just realised it's next year ffs Laugh
Report wellchief January 12, 2013 10:48 PM GMT
The New One: 25/1 RSA

Cheers Duffy Excited

FFT, no worries; I don't think Oscar Whsiky or Oscars Well will be winning either this year Wink
Report Smart Predator January 12, 2013 10:59 PM GMT
I would love a price on Simonsig for the KG and the GC. As long as Sprinter is still around simonsig will be stepped up to 3m 3m2. I bet they aint ballsy enough to price him up as a special bet.
Report wellchief January 12, 2013 11:27 PM GMT
Those are actual prices on Simonsig above Smart Predator.

Just need to email 365 for the 10's and Paddy Power for the Gold Cup and they'll give you those prices.

None of them will ever be on their sites. only way to get them is to email and ask for a price.

I should charge a fee for this service!
Report duffy January 12, 2013 11:27 PM GMT
Only just noticed this thread, WC, I thought I'd follow your lead and e-mail them about him....i've also tried PP as you advised and am waiting to see what they say.Happy
Report johntucker January 13, 2013 12:28 AM GMT
PP are good in my experience with providing a quote via email. Slightly off topic but they gave me 33/1 on Dawn Approach 2,000g/Derby last Autumn.
Report Brooksielad January 13, 2013 10:34 AM GMT
I've emailed PP,Bet365 for a quote on My Tent Or Yours for the 2014 Champion Hurdle.

Prices given:

Paddy Power 25/1

Bet365 33/1

I'm waiting on an email from Ladbrokes, think they may give me a bigger price because they have been stand out about the horse for a while.
Report alleged22 January 13, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
im thinking next years king george and gold cup will be the battle of the greys al ferof v/s simonsig

quite like that 25-1 about the new one winning next years rsa
Report Smart Predator January 13, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
Sorry WellChief I meant a double on the KG & GC. I just got an email back from B365 and they quote 50/1 to win both races.
Report roobuck January 13, 2013 12:56 PM GMT
Is it just me, or does that actually seem a decent price for a fun bet?
Report Brooksielad January 13, 2013 1:17 PM GMT
yeah 50/1 is more than fair if you believe he will step up, lots of other factors though. If Sprinter gets injured they could drop him to two miles. etc
Report bluebirdfan January 14, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
Wheres the Grandouet price from mate?
Report wellchief January 14, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
Was from Paddy Power mate.

Also, if anyone is interested in the next King George, all prices are now on Paddy's website, so no need to email them.

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/king-george-vi--chase

They offered me 8/1 on Simonsig, but now priced up as 10's.  I reckon they read this forum and see 365 went 10's and copied them Wink
Report wellchief January 14, 2013 8:59 PM GMT
2013 King George (Paddy Power)

Long Run   7/1
Simonsig   10/1
Dynaste   10/1
Flemenstar   16/1
Sir Des Champs   16/1
Champion Court   25/1
Captain Chris   25/1
Report Brooksielad January 14, 2013 10:40 PM GMT
what price Conti when he wins the GC
Report gutfeeling January 15, 2013 12:55 AM GMT
Got this back from Paddy Power this evening,Threw a few in to see how far they'd be willing to go.

Thank you for contacting Paddy Power customer support. I can confirm prices for the selections you have requested as follows:

Cheltenham 2014

Sizing Rio-Arkle – 25/1
Road to Riches-RSA – 25/1
Simonsig-Gold Cup – 16/1
Wonderful Charm-Ryanair Chase – 25/1
Oscars Well-Ryanair Chase – 16/1

I'll be having a bit of Sizing Rio and Simonsig just for fun.
Report Masterminded January 15, 2013 1:16 AM GMT
Very good thread WC. I've actually taken a bit of the 10s Simonsig for the KG long way away but can see that price tumbling in a couple of months. I've just requested a price for a nice Arkle prospect will post it up when I get a reply.
Report Flemenstar January 15, 2013 2:46 AM GMT
I'd be very interested in Wonderful Charm for the RSA. They are touting him as an outside chance for WH this year so must get 3m
Report stevo1 January 15, 2013 3:12 AM GMT
Wonderful Charm big price on here for World Hurdle.
Report wellchief January 15, 2013 5:21 PM GMT
Gutfeeling, I also think that Sizing Rio will be a monster over fences next year.

My only worry is I think they may go down the Jewson route, as they did with Loosen My Load.
Report Masterminded January 16, 2013 11:42 AM GMT
Un Atout Arkle 33/1 2014
Report Masterminded January 16, 2013 11:46 AM GMT
Wonderful Charm is a class act I think. Could easily be another for next years Arkle
Report Sergei_Rebrofl January 17, 2013 12:31 PM GMT
As I mentioned somewhere else, wonderful charm does seem a very generous price, even if he is a young one. Wherever he goes ill be following strongly next year, should be right in the arkle mix
Report Brooksielad January 17, 2013 9:10 PM GMT
Finally Ladbrokes got back to me with a quote for mytentoryours. I've been quoted for the supreme and champion hurdle double 100/1.
Report Can't Catch Me January 20, 2013 1:02 PM GMT
MM.... If you fin me asking, who u you get the 33/1 for Un Atout in the Arkle next year? Looks a cracking bet.
Report Masterminded January 21, 2013 2:31 PM GMT
It was with Paddy Power CCM. Hopefully it will turn out to be a good bet but he has a long way to go. I couldn't be any more impressed with him so far though and looks a chaser in the making. I have a feeling the festival may come a year too soon as far as the Supreme goes but after backing him in that race I thought it may be wise to have a small bet on him for the Arkle.
Report Senor El Betrutti January 21, 2013 4:23 PM GMT
two more for you: Coneygree 25/1 for the 2014 RSA & Rocky Creek 33/1 for the 2014 Gold Cup.
Report bluebirdfan January 21, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
Rocky Creek is a future Grand National winner imo
Report Senor El Betrutti January 21, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
I backed him for the RSA and after reading Nicholls thinking about missing Cheltenham this year like they did with Conti and go for the Hennessy I thought I would see what I could get for the Gold Cup. I don't think 33/1 is very generous but I thought I would let people know what is available.
Report Can't Catch Me January 21, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
Cheers MM.
Report tomdeane January 21, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
These all seem very hit and miss to me (as you'd probably expect).

33/1 Rocky Creek is bordering on ridiculous. If he was to run in the RSA he'd probably be a 9 or 10-1 chance and if he won by a distance you could get 5 or 6-1 for the Gold Cup.

On the other hand, My Tent Or Yours could win the Betfair, go off at 4-1 for the Supreme, and if he won that as well he would be a lot less than 20s for the Champion, which makes that 100-1 potentially good value.
Report Ballydoyle January 22, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
What is Boston Bob 2014 Gold Cup?
Report liam the lips January 22, 2013 3:02 PM GMT
Great idea idea for a thread wc Silly
Report liam the lips January 22, 2013 3:02 PM GMT
Great idea idea for a thread wc Silly
Report alleged22 January 23, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
i contacted PP for a price on unioniste for next years gold cup, 33-1 i was quoted, i will be searching elsewhere
Report buddeliea January 24, 2013 7:41 AM GMT
PP quoted me 33/1 for Puffin Billy to win the CHurdle next year.
Dont think so somehow!!
Report Tucho February 10, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
did you get on that my tent or yours 100/1 double brookieslad? Shocked
Report Brooksielad February 10, 2013 5:22 PM GMT
yeah matey 20 quids worth
Report Brooksielad February 10, 2013 5:25 PM GMT
Thanks to well chief don't think I'd of enquired without reading the Sprinter Sacre thread :)
Report Tucho February 10, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
great stuff
Report alleged22 February 10, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
By: This user is online. Brooksielad
Date Joined: 05 Jan 08 Add contact | Send message When: 17 Jan 13 21:10 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 1,167 | Blogger: Brooksielad's blog
Finally Ladbrokes got back to me with a quote for mytentoryours. I've been quoted for the supreme and champion hurdle double 100/1. Rate reply:




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that is looking a very good bet mate, hope it comes off for ya Cool
Report wellchief February 10, 2013 9:34 PM GMT
Well in Brooksie!

Still a long way to go, but I think there'd be a decent queue of people willing to buy that bet off ya!
Report wellchief March 24, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
With the dust settled, I thought I'd take stock at some of those suggested in this thread:

Simonsig - 10/1 King George: 6/1 and 7/1 general favourite now.  Will he go for the race though?  I assumed they'd step him up in trip but worried about the constant talk of "he's a genuine 2 miler" from connections.  I personally think his best performances have been past 2m.

Simonsig - 20/1 Gold Cup - Same price now but a very doubtful runner, so probably £20 down the drain.

Grandouet - 33/1 Arkle - 8's and 12's by those that have him priced up, so happy with my 33's at this stage.  Still 50/50 whether he'll go chasing, but I personally think he'll be a much better chaser than hurdler.  Still hope yet, and first talk from Henderson this week mentioning chasing, so hope he goes down that route.

Oscar Whisky - 16/1 Arkle and Jewson - ran too bad to be true in the World Hurdle and think they will definitely go chasing.  Whether he'll be good enough is another question, as he's disappointed in his last two festival runs (although that may be trip reasons)

The New One - 25/1 RSA - ultra impressive, but I think this is a bet that is already lost.

MTOY - 33/1 Champion Hurdle - excellent price, given top price is now 10/1.  I think he'll be the Henderson number 1 hope next year, and I'm not aboard the Our Connor ship yet - much rather be on MTOY at twice the price - serious chance imo

Sizing Rio-Arkle – 25/1
Road to Riches-RSA – 25/1
Simonsig-Gold Cup – 16/1
Wonderful Charm-Ryanair Chase – 25/1
Oscars Well-Ryanair Chase – 16/1


I like the Sizing Rio for the Arkle, but I think you'd probably get bigger than 25's.  The others I can't really see sorry.

Un Atout - 33/1 Arkle - Half this price now.  Ran a decent enough race in the Supreme, but chasing will always be his game, and will be much shorter than 16's nearer the time.

So all in all, a mixed bag.  Some really good ones, and some have probably gone down already.  Stand out one imo is MTOY Champion Hurdle at 33's, but Grandouet, if he does go chasing, will look a big price next March.
Report duffy March 24, 2013 5:50 PM GMT
WC, where you been?
Report judorick March 24, 2013 6:00 PM GMT
I have a few in mind for next year:

Smad Place: World Hurdle, will be backing him at Aintree too
Cue Card: Gold Cup 25s VC, free bet if non runner
African Gold: RSA Chase
Report wellchief March 24, 2013 8:18 PM GMT
Alright Duffy.  Bought my first house in the last week of January and gutted the place, so only just got the internet back.  Been checking the forums on my phone though.

Hope all forum folk had a good festival.  Biggest winner for me was Sprinter, and biggest losers were Boston Bob to place, and Rolling Star to win.

Highlight was The Fly winning, and horse I was most impressed with was Champagne Fever.  Looking at next year, I'm looking forward to MTOY and The New One in the Champion, Pont Alexandre in the RSA and At Fishers Cross in the RSA or World Hurdle.
Report gutfeeling March 24, 2013 8:35 PM GMT
Got a few more back just after the Festival WC,Hopefully the house will keep you occupied during the long summer months,

Champagne Fever-Arkle  6/1
Un Atout-Arkle 14/1
Simonsig-Champion Hurdle 14/1
Pont Alexander-RSA chase  16/1
Road to Riches-RSA chase 25/1
Rule The World-Jewson Novice Chase 14/1
African Gold-Jewson Novice Chase 16/1
Cinders And Ashes-World Hurdle 40/1
Sprinter Sacre-Gold Cup 20/1
Cue Card-Gold Cup 20/1

A few are a bit less than i was looking for and i love how RTR stayed the same price,Guess the no-show didn't tempt them into adding 8 or so points to him for next year.
Report wellchief March 24, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
Where was the 16/1 Pont Alexandre please mate?

Is Rule the World defintiely going chasing?  I want to keep on side of most of the front runners in the RSA and he reminds me a lot of First Lieutenent.

Chers
Report wellchief March 24, 2013 8:40 PM GMT
* Cheers

I'm not a fan of Cher before the rumours start Laugh
Report gutfeeling March 24, 2013 9:13 PM GMT
Get these from Paddy Power,You'll need to email them then use the dial-a-bet service if you want to take any of the prices offered(Think the PA price might be gone now though as is 12's on the site now)
Report Brooksielad March 25, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
gutted about the 100/1 supreme/champion double for mtoy. Peanuts on at 33s for next years champion hurdle, still think 10/1 is a big price though as this years Supreme was a pretty hot race imo.
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