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King Selassie I
10 Jan 13 18:52
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 74 | Blogger: King Selassie I's blog
I will preface this post with Apologies to SDC backers. On Aug 27th I will be 55 years of age I have been involved in horse racing [selecting winners - And losers - for over 43 years] Yes since I was 9 !! [Some of you on here will remember Newsboy & B.Bee from the London Evening Standard].Anyway, I digress. Can someone out there tell me why SDC is 5/1?. I have looked at all known form (And collateral) and I still cannot see how he will even finish in the first three. If this horse wins the CGC, it will be the greatest miracle since the raising of Lazarus.
Pause Switch to Standard View ** Sir Des Champ -I'mm dumbfounded **
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Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 7:00 PM GMT
Im concerned by your maths,surely you were 11 not 9 if you've only been betting 43 years....
SDC was my fancy before the start of the season, im just hoping the better ground (its got to dry up soon)will improve his jumping then and only then or if do i think he still has a right good chance
Report corals January 10, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
Loves Cheltenham and will love the distance, finished strongly in the Lexus wasn't far away even though it jumped like a pig.
Report corals January 10, 2013 7:02 PM GMT
I wanted to back it but I agree the 5/1 is abit skinny for this time of the year.
Report duffy January 10, 2013 7:07 PM GMT
The bigger shock is why is BW still 3/1 and not 7/4.
Report duffy January 10, 2013 7:08 PM GMT
I agree with KS by the wayGrin
Report Graeme83 January 10, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
KS, i've not idea why he is 5/1. In the last few days Pricewise(enemy of the small ante post punter), declared their intention to put up their GC horse, so the bookies took it upon themselves to cut 3 in the hope they got his selection. Once it was announced as Flemenstar, they continued to cut Flemenstar, and refused to put SDS and First Lieutenant back to what they were. He's certainly no 5/1 chance. He should be double that.
Report alleged22 January 10, 2013 7:27 PM GMT
so do i
Report festivalfanatic January 10, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
He has run twice this season. The first run behind Flemenstar you can forget because he looked nowhere near fully fit. There are 2 views of his run in the Lexus. He didn't jump at all well and definitely won't win a Gold Cup jumping lke that. However, he was beaten less than a length in 4th - unless the first 3 home all underperformed, he certainly has some engine. He is a Cheltenham horse, jumped perfectly well in the Jewson last year and is trained by a master. On the day, he will be ready. As he will be well suited by the extra distance, I'll be surprised if he is out of the first 3.
Report Deplasterer January 10, 2013 8:07 PM GMT

Jan 10, 2013 -- 7:45PM, festivalfanatic wrote:


He has run twice this season. The first run behind Flemenstar you can forget because he looked nowhere near fully fit. There are 2 views of his run in the Lexus. He didn't jump at all well and definitely won't win a Gold Cup jumping lke that. However, he was beaten less than a length in 4th - unless the first 3 home all underperformed, he certainly has some engine. He is a Cheltenham horse, jumped perfectly well in the Jewson last year and is trained by a master. On the day, he will be ready. As he will be well suited by the extra distance, I'll be surprised if he is out of the first 3.


+1, but agree 5/1 is way too short, will be at least 7's on the day hopefully.

Flemenstar still my fav horse though unfortunately can't see him staying. the best jumper of a fence since Dessy.

Report King Selassie I January 10, 2013 8:16 PM GMT
Robbo apologies for maths {No wonder I'm still working) should be 46yrs. I do not mean to 'Diss' any SDC backers but I believe the 'Enemy' are trying to suck us all in by thinking if they displayed 5/1 (Surely should be 10/1 - at least) We all may think it is too good a thing & will all jump in & back it. I actually feel sorry for the beast as I am sure all this re: SDC is 'Hyperbole'. Maybe after the Irish Hennessey a lot more of the Irish form will be revealed?. I could be wrong but I really believe this horse may not even run in the CGC due to the fact that it is just not good enough - only IMHO. Looking at all BW's CD form, I cannot see how SDC  is on the same planet. Best of luck to all it's backers as we all have the right to have our opinions. Come May 15th I may well be proved as talking a lot of B..locks but it is just my opinion. Happy betting all.
Report stevo1 January 10, 2013 8:22 PM GMT
Your selection whatever it is may run on May 15th, think maybe tailed off lol! Just jesting King
Report Howdi January 10, 2013 11:11 PM GMT
im with original poster shouldnt be this short ...ps good post made me chuckle
Report ACStafford January 10, 2013 11:23 PM GMT
I agree that he is well underpriced, but the OP is going well overboard on slating the horse. He would have won the Lexus in another few strides after jumping terribly. If good ground brings an improvement in his jumping, as it does in some horses (I might be wrong, but I don't remember him jumping badly on better ground last season), then he has to be there or there abouts, given his course record.
Report Slabster January 11, 2013 12:01 AM GMT
The only horse to beat him is Bobs Worth imo.

He wasn't anywhere near fit first time out. In the Lexus I still don't think he was 100%, looked like he would come on again. He took one by the roots down the back straight, lost 2 lengths at the 2nd last and wasn't great over most of the rest... Yet still only beaten a half length.

You have to take it on trust that he'll jump better at Cheltenham but I think and hope that the likely better ground combined with the fact that Willie Mullins will have him 100% will see him bang there over the last.

Imo he has the beating of the Lexus horses anyway, and I don't rate any of the English horses bar the excellent Bobs Worth. He'll be one helluva tough nut to crack but if any horse can do it it's Sir Des Champs. 5/1 is an e/w steal imo.
Report Howdi January 11, 2013 12:03 AM GMT
sad truth for me is if Flemenstar had stayed in the lexus he would be 7-4 for the gold cup - he travelled to the 2.5 mile distance as well as anything ive seen in a top race for sometime ala kauto my heart broke when he didnt get home.
Report jasey January 11, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
Unbeaten at cheltenham only a fool would be confident about laying SDC.
Festival form is everything look no further than BW SDC FL.
FL i hope runs in the ryanair tho.
Report robbo69 January 11, 2013 8:36 AM GMT
Jasey
Agree but if you talk of course form surely LONG RUN should be in your list, 1st and 3rd in GC. Will make a few mistakes but will finish in the 3 he always does......
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 8:52 AM GMT
The two most likely winners are BW and SDC

Its all about opinions and I couldn't have LR, Flem, SC or mind you FL at double their current prices, then your left with rags. Last year was the worst Gold Cup ran in a long time, and although LR didn't appear to be himself, he still looks a pale shadow of his former self. Flem won't stay and might not run, SC is promising but wasn't top novice last year, FL was bet fair and square by BW. Your left with Last years top novices BW and SDC. Takin into account the horses left in the race and the amount that might line up I'd be very surprised if SDC isn't a bit shorter come the day, as will BW. Its apparent looking at the betting that SDC will be the biggest loser for bookies and they appear to have a enough of him at this stage.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 12:30 PM GMT
No mention of the Lexus winner?

Oh yeh,it was Tidal Bay,surely we can dismiss him.

Not if soft is in the description you cant.
Report robbo69 January 11, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
Long time since a 12 year old won a gold cup though.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
yes indeed,but he does have the form in the book this season.
Right going hes bang there.
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 1:35 PM GMT
the way owner speaking TB won't be going for GC unless it soft, my reading into his comments that there are other plans for TB. If he lines up in GC he has a major chance on the form book. Not an a/p proposition when there is doubt about him running and thats the same with any horse. Bookies love people to back these horses that are doubly and triply engaged, it's like laying them at 1/2 or 1/3 of there odds. Mug punters get involved in these circumstances.
Rather have very poor odds about a runner than massive odds about a non runner.
Report Ballydoyle January 11, 2013 2:47 PM GMT
I am all over Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth for the Gold Cup.

SDC is 2/2 at Cheltenham festival. The medals dont get handed out in November etc. The first run was just to give him a run. 2m 4 too short. The Lexus run he got beat around a length. The way people have carried on it's as if he fell 3 times and got beat 30 lengths lol. Clearly not his best jumping performance but does it really worry me? No. was staying on in the end and another 2 furlongs will do nicely. Trained by a man who can and who will have it 100% on the day. To say it would be a miracle if it wins is rather dramatic....

Bobs Worth 4/4 at Cheltenham. Loves the place, grinds it out, has literally everything in its favour, except it could do with another run this year.
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 2:54 PM GMT
Trained by a man who will have it 100% on the day ?  ....i think you'll find all trainers can have their horses fit on the day. You really see that as a factor ? ....at the end of the day he didn't jump well, and he's only had 2 starts this season. That's not what you want to see in a Gold Cup horse. You also have to wonder about the price when you consider what his odds could be for his next race in the Hennessey i think it is.
Report Slabster January 11, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
I think the point about him being 100% on the day Graeme is to somewhat emphasize that he probably won't be 100% for any other day this season.

That's how I feel about it anyway. Imo he will come on from his run in the Lexus, and should be a cracker in the Hennessy with him and Flemenstar again. Won't be the end of the world if Flemenstar beats him again there.
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 3:38 PM GMT
Slabster - it all depends on which view you want to take. Obviously there's also the ground to take into consideration. If the ground is decent, and he comes on for the Lexus, then you would think he would have to win the hennessey. If the ground is good enough, then for me he has to win to justify his place in the current market. Therefore the accumulative odds for the hennesey, and the price he would then be after the Hennessey, would for me be better than 5/1. If you think he can still win a GC regardless of what happens next time, then fair enough, but it's not how i'd play it.
Report duffy January 11, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
In the lexus I don't I don't take the view that SDC jumped bad and ran on with credit to finish a length behind, I just see he jumped bad, because at the festival with jumping like that even with further to travel he won't be able to make the ground up, it would be like giving BW a good jumper and strong stayer a head start, of course he may jump a whole lot better, but even with SDC on his A game he is still miles behind BW...he has to be, SDC was surrounded by hype since his jewson win and as time goes by he will become an enigma, and enigmatic hyped horses tend to be expensive ones to follow.Grin
Report robbo69 January 11, 2013 3:45 PM GMT
Although i too really like this horse can we use the ground as an excuse for bad jumping? Did he not win a grade 1(weak one i know) at the punchestown festival last year in ground they wouldnt race on here... And bar the last when the race was over didnt he jump like a stag..
Is it just possible this horse has to use a flat term 'not trained on' as well as alot of people thought he would (myself included!!!)
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
People have short memories because going into last years RSA the fear with BW was his jumping. On the day he jumped very well. On his first run this year BW was very untidy early on and if it wasn't a handicap he might not have got away with it. Now everybody talking about SDC bad jumping, in a G1 and get beat 1l, well let me tell you he jumps as well, if not better than BW.
Report robbo69 January 11, 2013 4:05 PM GMT
Maybe so but not last time out he didnt. Like say im a fan of the horse but facts are facts.
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 4:06 PM GMT
I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. If you think 5/1 is a good enough price, put your bet on with Vic to get the concession. I don't want to appear to be trying to put people off backing the horse, because i'm not and i also have had a bet on him a while back(at a better price). The question is about his current price. I'm not a fan of it, but that's alright for me to say. If someone thinks he's the likly winner, then they're probably going to have a bet anyway. For anyone who wants to back the horse, take the conession. If he dooesn't go you'll get your money back, and if there are excuses you can have another bet, and he would be a better price and maybe even nrnb with another firm by the time the races finishes. (btw it's max 50 quid with vc)
Report festivalfanatic January 11, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
Trained by a man who will have it 100% on the day ?  ....i think you'll find all trainers can have their horses fit on the day. You really see that as a factor ? ....at the end of the day he didn't jump well, and he's only had 2 starts this season. That's not what you want to see in a Gold Cup horse. You also have to wonder about the price when you consider what his odds could be for his next race in the Hennessey i think it is.

The best trainers are given the best horses to train because they get them right for the big day. That's why Mullins dominates the scene in Ireland and Hendo and Nicholls do it here. They will probably win half the Festival races between them, including most of the Grade 1's.
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 5:11 PM GMT
^^^^^ SDC, if he gets there, will be running in a race against trainers who also get them ready for the big races, so it isn't really a factor. I'd imagine there are other trainers out there who are capable, but simply don't get the big horses to prepare for the big races.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 5:28 PM GMT
baNjackst
11 Jan 13 13:35
the way owner speaking TB won't be going for GC unless it soft, my reading into his comments that there are other plans for TB. If he lines up in GC he has a major chance on the form book. Not an a/p proposition when there is doubt about him running and thats the same with any horse. Bookies love people to back these horses that are doubly and triply engaged, it's like laying them at 1/2 or 1/3 of there odds. Mug punters get involved in these circumstances.
Rather have very poor odds about a runner than massive odds about a non runner.


Are you telling me that my 100/1 on Tidal Bay for the GC is a mug bet?
And what about my 25/1 on him for the WH??
Well i'm happy with that,even if i am a mug punter
Laugh
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 6:12 PM GMT
your wasting a lot of ink buddles
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 6:22 PM GMT
u a clown?
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 6:27 PM GMT
if your so insecure, let me reassure you I think your great.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 6:32 PM GMT
well you are making me laugh,so i thought i would ask.
Buddles!!
Laugh
Report gman73 January 11, 2013 6:40 PM GMT
A lot is being made of SDC's jumping inadequacy and whilst it clearly made several mistakes in the Lexus, I think there are grounds for thinking it will be better at Cheltenham. If you watch the way it jumped in the Jewson last year, on better ground and over a shorter trip, then I really don't think there is anything to worry about if!

5/1 is short but I would suggest that this is because of the lack of credible alternatives and I personally think the bookies have got them about right. Mullins has only had one target in mind for SDC all season and I think it will arrive cherry ripe in March and will surely go close to winning.

BW is the obvious and worthy favourite and everything looks in his favour, but the others with the exception of FL (who I hope and suspect will run in the Ryanair) all look to have enough reasons to suggest they will struggle to beat SDC & BW in March.

Matter of opinions but I'd rather be a backer than a layer!
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 6:54 PM GMT
Do we think its a simple case that SDC jumps better on decent ground?
If so then may as well wait till the day,see what the going is and then decide if his price is a fair one.
FWIW,i would not back him right now at his price,but come the day and the grounds similar to last year,i would certainly be interested.
Report gman73 January 11, 2013 7:08 PM GMT
I would think that is a certainty Bud, and its highly unlikely to be anything like it was for the Lexus or any of the other Irish winter ground.

I wouldn't be steaming in at the current price but think it will start shorter on the day due to public perception and the weight of the Irish Euros!!
Report duffy January 11, 2013 7:11 PM GMT
With better ground I see no reason why he can't put in a performance like last years which propelled him to the top of the gold cup market where he beat ermm champion court in the errmm jewson...hang on, that doesn't sound rightSilly
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 7:20 PM GMT
Blame the ground if any of you want. That's looking for conveinant excuses, which are becoming numerous with this horse. I'm a realist, and i'm concerned about Willie Mullins top chasers always having issues jumping. I'd prefer it if Mouse trained this one.
Report robbo69 January 11, 2013 8:47 PM GMT
Hard to knock the trainer Graeme, hes had plenty of chase winners so sure he can get them to jump ok.
Report the Inca January 12, 2013 12:16 AM GMT
Will be 5/2 on the day - only being trained for one race - money will come
Report jasey January 12, 2013 2:01 AM GMT
robbo, i agree about long run.
SDC price will only get shorter,esp after he wins the hennessey
Report Flemenstar January 12, 2013 2:33 AM GMT
Graeme83 said - "KS, i've not idea why he is 5/1. In the last few days Pricewise(enemy of the small ante post punter), declared their intention to put up their GC horse, so the bookies took it upon themselves to cut 3 in the hope they got his selection. Once it was announced as Flemenstar, they continued to cut Flemenstar, and refused to put SDS and First Lieutenant back to what they were. He's certainly no 5/1 chance. He should be double that."


Erm, this isn't what happened. The PW selection happened to coincide with the news that Last Instalment was ruled out for the season so the other 2 Gigginstown runners were cut as they would have a better chance of making the final race. There were no bookies refusing anything Laugh you sound like a spoilt child. Put them back! Cry
Report Graeme83 January 12, 2013 11:50 AM GMT
Flemenstar, think before you type you fool. Last Instalment not running does not make SDC or FL a better horse. Technically their prices should have gone up, as one could now go for the Ryanair. They always cut a couple around the time that the big mouth bragards from the Racing Post make their selections. If your argument was valid, then every horse should have been cut. L.I was an outsider though.
Report judorick January 12, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
jasey has it right

when SDC wins the Hennessey he will shorten and the race will look like a match between him and Bobs Worth

as to why he is short, well why would you lay 7/1 when you can lay 5?

Once Flemenstar and First lieutenant are withdrawn from the CGC it is going to look a 2 horse and 5/1 will look a big price then
Report duncan idaho January 12, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
Graeme83
11 Jan 13 19:20

Blame the ground if any of you want. That's looking for conveinant excuses, which are becoming numerous with this horse


Numerous? He's only been beaten twice in his life (over jumps)!!....and if you think he needs excuses for his reappearance defeat, you must have a lower opinion of Flemenstar at 2½m than i and many others have
Report duncan idaho January 12, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
....in addition, doesnt matter whether his mistakes last time where due to the going or not...plain fact is if he jumps like he did in the Jewson, he will improve on that (Lexus) form and thus be bang in the mix.
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2013 2:44 PM GMT
I don't think you're being realistic, Duncan. Yes, he has only been beaten twice, but both of those have come this season, and that is the most important part. He's out of novices company, and hasn't won yet. All the old cliches are being used, good ground...primed for one day...bla bla bla. Once Mullins horses start hitting them, they are shaped up for an incosistent career, just like his recent chasers. 5/1 to me, for a horse that hasn't won once since coming out of novice company, and made three errors in the Lexus, isn't much of a price for me. other see it differently, and if they want the price they should take it. I don't see what anyone has seen in order to justify taking a smaller price than the better price they could have had before.
Report jasey January 13, 2013 3:58 PM GMT
I believe my eyes,at cheltenham you need a horse that finds plenty off the bridle.
SDC for me found plenty in that lexus run.
Graeme,Best Mate lost his two races prior to winning the gold cup,and he hadn't won at 3 mile,but his cheltenham form was top notch.
Judge SDC after his next run
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2013 4:29 PM GMT
Fair enough Jasey, but if he hits them in the Gold Cup(if he goes), then he won't be finiding anything as he will be tailed off. The price in this thread is the issue, and as you mention Best Mate, i had a look and he went off at 7/1 on the day. Anyway, the horse is obviously talented so anyone having a bet should take the concession. I'd still be interested to hear why some people think he's a good bet now, but wasn't before the Lexus when he was a better price.
Report johntucker January 13, 2013 4:38 PM GMT
He's always been a good bet, IMO anyway due to his previous festival form. I can't for the life of me see why you are suggesting that he won't go for the gold cup or will be tailed off if he does run? Confused
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
Jumping is the name of the game. If you don't jump well, you don't win a Gold Cup. The only reason he was able to stay on in the Lexus was because the ground was slow. If you make a mistake on heavy, it's easier to get back into the race as the pace associated with good ground isn't there. If he jumps like he did over Christmas, he will be tailed off. That's what i said. I suggested he might not go, as i suggest anything might not go, because he couldn't get injured etc(which is an ante post price factor). Some horses like Long Run can make errors but not lose momentum. The kind of errors SDC was making are the type that lose you races. I'd want a slightly better priice on a Mullins horse with question marks over his jumping.
Report jasey January 13, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
it was all about flemenstar,if he had cruised home (which he looked like doing) then SDC would be a bigger price.
SDC was running Flemmy and FL down another 500 yards and SDC is past both of them.
I would rather have 5/1 for SDC than 7s for Conti or 12s for Flemmy.
Report duffy January 13, 2013 4:56 PM GMT
The whole SDC thing gets more baffling by the day, it actually seems that the hype and confidence grows bigger with every disappointing performance...what price would he now be if he'd won both races this year...4/6Laugh...and all this when we have a horse in opposition that has even stronger qualities that this horse himself...cheltenham form (see BW).
Report johntucker January 13, 2013 5:00 PM GMT
I don't quite follow your logic, but each to their own. Still don't understand the " if he goes" as surely that applies to every single horse entered in every race. I'll stick my neck out and suggest that BW and SDC will both go off around the 11/4 mark.
Report Smart Predator January 13, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Do you all remember Bobs Worths form going into the festival last year? He was doing exactly the same as SDC this year but come RSA on a track he loved he showed his class. It happens, horses go in and out of form everyday but class is class and SDC has it. Course form is a must for the GC!

Can you all guess who I've backed? :)
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2013 5:20 PM GMT
Tucker - my logic is that if he doesn't jump well enough, he doesn't win. I also don't have enough confidence is Willie Mullins when it comes to chases, so the price is short enough. He was a better price before he didn't make jump errors, so no thanks to 5/1.


Smart Predator - I believe BW was at least 7/1 for the RSA after getting beat. SDC is 5/1 for a Gold Cup. 7/1 before the Lexus, and 5/1 now that he made jumping errors. I don't think i'll be rushing to back him again.
Report Smart Predator January 13, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
He drifted in some place to 7s after the Lexus and has only come in to 5s because people haven't lost faith and still continue to back him. Are you on anything in the GC yet?
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2013 8:17 PM GMT
I already stated i backed the horse, which was well before the Lexus. The issue is now his price, and his jumping. I've also said i wouldn't put anyone off. Much of the current discussion is with regards to his price, and his run LTO. We will see what happens, as i'm certainly not as optimistic as some as things stand.
Report johntucker January 13, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
Are you not better laying off since you are so negative about his chances now?  Who do you favour now?
Report buddeliea January 14, 2013 7:53 AM GMT
Its true that hes now shorter than he was before the Lexus.
That tells me that people are expecting him to jump a lot better in the Gold Cup,and he will have to,cos as Greaeme says he jumps like he did in the Lexus he loses too much ground.
Personally after watching the Lexus i would want more than 5/1.
If he aint been backed now then wait and see how he does in his next race.With Bobsworth around he wont be an awful lot shorter than 5 if he wins imo.
Still think FL is the value,and with the VC offer can be backed now.
Report robbo69 January 14, 2013 12:22 PM GMT
Agree bud.
But i still can't understand why nobody seem to mention Long Run in this thread, got to be the best value in this race at 8-1. 2-1 a place about a horse thats never been out the frame, Lump on while you can NRNB with the magic sign.
Report Graeme83 January 14, 2013 1:07 PM GMT
Tucker - i don't lay horses off, and as far as SDC goes, i don't have anywhere near the money to lay him off anyway. I bet in bits and bobs, and have no problem throwing any money i have at my bets. I've even been getting birthday money a month early, and i'd ask people to give me some early Christmas cash if i could get away with it.
Report jasey January 14, 2013 6:18 PM GMT
Robbo
Long  runs record is great,but i would be dissapointed if one of the 2nd season chasers didn't have his measure,not a win bet for me.
Agree with Budd FL is the value.
Report tomdeane January 14, 2013 6:30 PM GMT
I think Sir Des Champs is the nightmare one to weigh up in the race.

I agree with Graeme that his jumping (and even his bare form) this season marks him out as bad value at 5-1 for a good-looking Gold Cup. That said, he looked as though he would improve for a trip in the Lexus and must have a serious engine to have got so close after jumping so poorly. The big question is surely whether he jumps better on the day. If he does, he is a very possible winner, but I agree with Graeme again, that if he doesn't, he won't be troubling anyone.

I think Silviniaco Conti is the bet. Being trained by a master, trained for the one race, jumps beautifully, quickens and stays. Slight concern about the track but there is nothing in the way he has won his races this year that suggests he'll have any issues (looks well balanced etc).
Report PeteTheBloke January 14, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
I've even been getting birthday money a month early, and i'd ask people to give me some early Christmas cash if i could get away with it.

LOL. One of the best comments I've seen here for ages.

Are you sure you're old enough to bet?
Report Graeme83 January 14, 2013 7:53 PM GMT
The clue is in my username. No i'm not 83. I don't really celebrate birthdays, but i don't mind opening cards. Surprised
Report Eeternaloptimist January 15, 2013 1:29 AM GMT
I don't know if the horse will be good enough but to crab his jumping is a bit extreme in my view. He made a horlicks of the last at the Punchestown festival last year but jumped perfectly well when going mostly a yard too fast on his reappearance.

So really it all boils down to his Lexus run. I watched it at the time but it's difficult to glean much about a specific horse when you are watching several. Having watched it again just for him I don't really see what all the fuss is about. Down the back straight for the final time he made a right mess of one of the ditches because the jockey asked him for a huge jump and the horse put down on him. Should never have done the asking for me. He jumped the next fairly slowly when for me he was getting his confidence back and he put an extra stride in at the second last which cost him momentum coming away from the fence. Other than that I thought he jumped perfectly adequately.
Report jasey February 9, 2013 3:57 PM GMT
The miracle is on
Report duffy February 9, 2013 4:21 PM GMT
struggled to beat a non-stayer, didn't he, has he drifted much?
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 9, 2013 4:35 PM GMT
lol duffy.

Flemenstar jumped right all the way round too - I think Flemenstar's Cheltenham winning chances in any race are between nil and zero.
Report jasey February 9, 2013 4:38 PM GMT
No,he beat a class horse.The race was probably ran at a sedate pace as well.I think SDC beat the non stayer by a bigger margin than TB and FL did in the lexus.
Report duffy February 9, 2013 4:53 PM GMT
jasey
I agree with you, he did beat a class horse, a horse that is right up there with the best horses in training IMO at any rate.
Report giggsy3444 February 9, 2013 11:40 PM GMT
i think SDC looked as slow as a boat. i think he'll be found out at Cheltenham on better ground at a quicker pace. just my opinion but he just runs like a one paced stayer. i'll be surprised if he wins but i thought the same last year of synchronised and look what happened.
Report tomdeane February 10, 2013 2:04 AM GMT
I don't think he's slow at all, but he clearly appreciates a stamina test. I nailed my colours to the Silviniaco Conti mast some time ago and am still very happy with that position but I rate Sir Des Champs as a big danger, more so than Bobs Worth.
Report gman73 February 10, 2013 7:30 AM GMT
Don't see how you could consider him to be 'as slow as a boat' given the way he cruised through last years Jewson?

Clearly the horse has a blend of speed and stamina and his jumping was much more assured yesterday. I still think that the likely better ground, faster pace and longer trip will be right up his street at Cheltenham and think he's a certainty to run a massive race.

Of course I may be wrong!!
Report jasey February 10, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
I could not agree more Gman.
Report paulo47 February 10, 2013 8:52 PM GMT
I know he has won both ways round but to me he is a horse far better suited going LH .
Report judorick March 2, 2013 7:32 PM GMT
Confidence abounds, stable visits and interviews all tell the story as does the betting market, the horse is thriving and has been prepared brilliantly, 'kicking the stable door down' they used to say...

does the OP still think it won't be in the first 3?
Report Makybe_Diva March 2, 2013 7:41 PM GMT
"If this horse wins the CGC, it will be the greatest miracle since the raising of Lazarus."

How can you say that? Confused
Report King Selassie I March 2, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
Jud, very much enjoy comments from yourself, Budd, G83 & all the formunites. I started this thread on Jan 10th. Today is Mar 2nd & I still have not seen anything to tell me why this horse will finish in the first 3 (imho). SDC is a beautiful looking animal & I'm sure a good battler but I stick to my original comments. Every year the 'enemy' fills its satchels with our 'hard earned' due to hyperbole [This year SDC - Last year grands Crus]. Can anyone on this forum tell me that SDC has better form this year than LR & SC - Let alone this years Gold cup winner - Bobs Worth. Best of luck with everyone's bets this year.
Report judorick March 2, 2013 7:58 PM GMT
we will have to disagree completely, it's gonna p1ss up
Report sc1883 March 2, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
have to agree with the original poster, on all known form it doesnt finish in the first 3 and so far is just an hype horse to me, obviously it may prove me wrong but last years jewson now starting to look a weak affair. even BG states the horse is the most hyped at the festival and cant understand what all the fuss is about!
Report judorick March 2, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
There is p1ss all in the form if you look at the Hennessey at Newbury and The Lexus.

SDC was close up at the line and a stride after the line he was in front. That race is a bare 3 miles and it is clear that he needs further. Watch the replay and observe the relative speeds of the runners as they cross the line. He is going fastest and would have drawn right away. He never jumped a twig in that race, made loads of errors yet was beaten 3/4 of a length at the line and would have won going away over another half furlong.

On top of that he is a renowned good ground horse and is set to jump and quicken much more effectively when on good ground, he fairly sprinted up the hill last year in one of the relatively fastest run races of the entire Festival (I have the speed figures for every race, only the Champion hurdle and Gold Cup were faster, yet he earned the in running comment "quickened clear, easily" and you can add a fair amount with quite a degree of confidence to a speed rating when they get a comment like that and he is set to improve dramatically over the extra 2.5 furlongs on the Festival going

You of course don't have to take my word for it but the comments that he is a long way behind on form are just wildly inaccurate I'm afraid. Even the bare form is close and he's been prepared to run a massive race on Gold Cup Day, not before.

Anyway, everyone has their ways of interpreting the info, the horses will do the talking at the end of the day
Report archie8 March 2, 2013 9:00 PM GMT
judo the lexus was a brutal race an allready seen tidal bay off .
Report judorick March 2, 2013 9:02 PM GMT
and SDC had only just got going at the end
Report archie8 March 2, 2013 9:07 PM GMT
do you not think he could of left his race there .mullins is the master but surely it a concern
Report judorick March 2, 2013 9:11 PM GMT
nope all reports from stable visits and interviews are that the horse has blossomed and is in magnificent physical condition, they are saying he is going to stand out like a beacon in the parade ring before the race... they are massively confident, it is kicking the stable door down it's so well
Report archie8 March 2, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
thank you ,was with bw after the lexus but his prep is'nt ideal either
Report judorick March 2, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
see alleged's thread 'one for the stas...' about bw
Report alleged22 March 2, 2013 9:24 PM GMT
it has to be a worry
Report jasey March 2, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
SDC Is that good,he will win the gold cup even if he clobbers his way round.
Report judorick March 2, 2013 9:41 PM GMT
that may be true but I think he will jump beautifully and bounce off the going
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