Cheltenham Festival
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Right. Viewers should all be advised that i'm a bit of an ante post clown who is walking the tight rope. I wanted to make a thread, so i thought i'd put up my number one Supreme hope, even though he's won on the p2p. The selection is in the title, and i had my shillings on at 14/1. I have backed him because alot of the speedy hurdlers are not getting their ground, and come March they could be all running it out of each other up front on ground they want but haven't had recent experience on, which if events transpire could set it up for more of a stayer with a bit of pace about him. I'll not add in all these cliches about better ground and all he rest of it. I was impressed with him at Kempton, he is a horse that i have faith in, and at this stage and price i took my chance. When i saw 'My tent or yours', i thought to myself i'd rather have a few poles, and some plastic sheets to make my own den. The only problem with this, and the people throughout punting forums will all know, people are keeping the faith in this horse because the trainer has said before it could be his best 2 miler. This is why they're all sticking by that horse boys and girls. They've all read this comment and pretend they know something the rest of us don't. Guffaw guffaw. Beep beep.
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Replies: 44
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Nicky Henderson has a better sort in my tent or yours I'm afraid.
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I'm aware that my tent or yours is the higher thought of for the race. It's why he got thumped and people are still saying they have saw something. I wanted to back one that has been more impressive so far, at least to me anyway. The festival is only a couple of months away, and to me i'd rather be one something that is running well and improving, as opposed to the one who is probably being trained for newbury, and will still have a good bit of room left after March. I think River Maigue is genuine. I just hope it's the race he's aimed for. I backed Darlan for the race last year, and i don't see what this horse has that darlan didn't.
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Whilst My Tent Or Yours is a very good horse I don't see him as a Cheltenham type.
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Their is a fred further down greme83 on RM
i think he is potentially top class. |
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graeme I think the run beating Taquin Du Seuil was impressive enough, the time was very quick, when you take into account Binocular ran over course and distance in the same conditions just before coming 3rd in his champion hurdle and clocked a very similar time. Imo that is probably some of the best form for the supreme at the moment.
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No reason to see why he would turn the tables on Dodging Bullets???
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not so sure ^^^ he may have needed a run DB had already had one.
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I'm sure RM is very good, but beating New Years Eve on heavy ground wouldn't make you rush out to back him for a championship race. Wasn't it known that NYE wouldn't go on the ground that day and although he was visually impressive what did he beat. I'm not sure what record Zagreb horses have at top level, but I would be of the opinion that they are better on better ground themselves.
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No reason to see why he would turn the tables on Dodging Bullets??
1. DB was having his 14th start under rules, RM was having only his rd under rules plus a PTP 2. DB was having his 5th start over hurdles, it was RM.s debut 3. DB had already had a run, RM's seasonal debut. Nothing is ever cast iron, but I would suggest each could could considered a reason for a turnaround |
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dodging bullets was there for the taking that day gave him 7lb made the running which he didnt want to make, an river maigue still didnt beat him,hendersons horses are norm fit first time out hence darlan, but the race was similar with one of hendersons at weekend royal boy similar profile to river maigue he got beat first time out to Melodric revz,an they thought hed turn it around with that horse next time out an look same result i know everyhorse is diff but just an example
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Just watched RM 3rd at Ascot in whats turning out to be a bad bumper. Traveled like a winner but found little and on the strength of that run he looks too weak to win a supreme. I know you can improve over hurdles but he looked like he lacked the class that day to go to the top.
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Id be careful looking back with this one.
To me hes a horse thats taking time to get there,and will be improving at a fair rate. Whether its enough by March i aint sure,but i am confident he will reach the top at some stage. |
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Very interesting that this one as been entered in an handicap hurdle at Kempton on Saturday. Dont think he will run but possibly forcing the handicapper to reveal his mark? Been given 136, when you consider 157 is DB's mark this seems very handy! Maybe connections considering a crack at the Betfair hurdle at Newbury like Darlan last year? Off a mark of 136 would likely pi$$ in if its as good as they think it is!
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my tent or yours will run at Newbury, that's why they gave him a spin at Newbury over Christmas. jp likes running his supreme horses in races like that, darlan and get me out of here.
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Yeah got a few entries in next couple of days brooksie to get his mark
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Nice to see the replies. They're a good read. With regard to My Tent or Yours, i think he's a talented horse, and his price is generous. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. Nobody is forcing anyone to single out a horse and be stubborn in sticking with it. The prices currently available make it's easier for any of you to back a main selection and reserve. My main hope is River Maigue, and i can't be too specific about his chances as at this stage as i don't know enough. What i do think is that he's gritty and doesn't lack a bit of smoke. He ran quicker than Darlan by 8 seconds on the same card, yet was more than 3 times the price for a easier race. On the same token, it's the same with Dodging Bullets. I couldn't put anyone off him, as there isn't enough evidence to dismiss him. In the past few seasons the supreme winner sall got beat by lesser horses at some point, so how much we read into things before the big day is up for debate.
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Been given 136, when you consider 157 is DB's mark this seems very handy!
His mark does seem very lenient compared to Dodging Bullets. I am a Dodging Bullets fan, but I don't think he's anywhere near 157 yet though; that's far too high imo, so I personally wouldn't use Dodging Bullets as a yard stick. DB's rating is probably based on his Kempton run, which is dodgy form imo. He was rated 148 even before he ran this season, which again I think is too high, but there you go; their not going the handicap route so ratings mean sweet f.a |
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The disparity in ratings between DB and the other two doesn't make much sense to me either.
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Graeme,I'm on the Camp where 'My Tent or Yours' is well and truly pitched,he'll be a different horse come Cheltenham
to the one we saw canter round Newbury on ground he hated,20/1 with Ladbrokes is massive. |
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I do not believe the Ascot bumper was bad. It may work out better if the Nock horse was still with Tizzard and Atlantic Roller is a decent horse. I think at Ascot RM merely pulled way, way too hard.
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Dodging Bullets is still the massive value bet for the race.
No horse recently with an OR of 150+ hasn't gone off fav, Dodging Bullets last race and they have given it a RPR of 153 and a OR of 156 Stats are poor for 150+ rated horses but the prices are short 2009 - Cousin Vinny - 9/4 Fav - OR 151 2010 - Dunguib - 4/5 Fav - OR 156 2011 - Cue Card - 7/4 Fav - OR - 159 2012 - No horse with an OR above 148 but Galileo's Choice ran to RPR 151 and went off 6/1 Fav Then you add the Nicholls/Ruby factor the 14/1 will be long gone on the day, could be even sooner if Tom Segal puts it up at Ante Post having tipped it for the Christmas Hurdle last month. |
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He's not for me, already exposed behind Darlan, I already consider last years Supreme Novice Hurdle a weak enough race and would be very surprised If there wasn't a few better than dodging bullets in this years Supreme line up.
But like you say he will go off shorter than what he is now and we know he deffo runs so could be a nice little trade with a bet to nothing come the day. |
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Brooksie - all the prices have gone on your fella. I wouldn't be too dismissive of the Nicholls horse. He got Prospect Wells to finish 5th last season, and he wasn't doing much before March. This horse has better form than that, so at this stage i wouldn't be too quick to not consider him as something without a reasonable chance. Have you boys noticed how every time we mention something on here, the bookies cut them qucikly enough ?
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I'm not saying he can't win, If he runs to a figure in the high 150s he's got a chance. It might just be I'm being to critical of him because it's his 2nd season in novice company so to speak.
Yeah Ladbrokes caved in going 20s on mtoy few days ago, see corals have pushed him out to 16s but think they've been going short anyway so don't think they've taken much. I'd expect them to cut him in a few days aswell. River Maigues been slashed across the board aswell :) is there any news on where he runs next? |
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dodging bullets is deff the value got more experience than most,course an distance form top trainer an jock what more do u want will deff be single fingers and anyone backing Jezki at 3s surely hasnt watched last years bumper,oh and dodging bullets will be a far better horse just off the pace in big field, instead of making the running in a slow 8 horse race looked all the winner last year got infront to soon imo a now a year on more mature an stronger horse will take a good horse to beat him but that is only my opinion good luck lads cant wait
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I have watched bumper as was there, rather watch Jezki mop up Grade 1 Hurdles!!
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If you watch the dodging bullets race again, take a close look at duke of navan. He pulled most of the way and still finished close up, if he learns to settle early he would be the one for me.
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Given Dodging Bullets course form, added experience as a second season novice and his connections, it is not difficult to imagine him going close. As he gave RM 7lbs at Cheltenham, can't see PFN being too bothered about taking him on again at level weights.
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Krl - the trainer said Duke of Navan might bypass the festival and go to Aintree, as he likes to take his time with them. Whether he does or not i obviously wouldn't know. That was on SportingLife today. I agree that he is a nice horse.
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Anyone got thoughts on Chatterbox? Other than being supposed third string, plenty to like. Has Hendo said when it is running next?
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^ Not sure where he will run next Ian, but Henderson said he's definitely not going to the Festival because they want to take their time with him
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Thanks wellchief, just googled and found his comments about him having a quiet season. Shame but if he feels thats right by the horse who am I to disagree.
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Any news on Tistory.....I can remember Henderson saying this was his great hope of the season in the hurdle divisions. I know they can all train and develop at different rates but if this is anything to go by and RM is second Fav for the supreme then a small tickle at the prices on here maybe worth it.......just worried not come out yet but probably waiting for better ground
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If I were a backer of River M I'd be worried Geraghty would ride MTOY if AP is on Jezki.
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I wouldnt, Mr Buckley will put his foot down like last year.
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As a backer of MTOY I'd love Geraghty on board, but I stil think he'll ride RM.
He was kind of forced to ride Spirit Son over Sprinter Sacre when he couldn't choose between them in the Supreme because of the Buckley connections in the yard, and wouldn't be surprised if it happened again. |
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Ibrahima, you stole my thunder
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& River M has the better form
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Until My Tent Or Yours wins the Betfair hurdle that is
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