Cheltenham Festival
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Where's Willie running his horses thread.
I actually think there needs to be a market opened, this can often be a much harder problem to solve than backing the winner of some of the races.
Pont Alexandre and Champagne heading the Neptune betting Champagne being backed today, he can't run them both against each other surely. Frustrating when you want to put one of his in a multiple but your taking an even money gamble about him running it gaaaaah.
I actually think there needs to be a market opened, this can often be a much harder problem to solve than backing the winner of some of the races.
Pont Alexandre and Champagne heading the Neptune betting Champagne being backed today, he can't run them both against each other surely. Frustrating when you want to put one of his in a multiple but your taking an even money gamble about him running it gaaaaah.
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I backed both of them but to win any race with Hills.
Slightly shorter odds, but will be better than the on the day prices, without the worry of the Willie Magical Merry-Go-Round between now and March |
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watched re-runs of Pont Alexandre and Champagne Fever now and taken the decision to back Pont Alexandre in the 3 miler. His run looked like he was struggling to go any quicker whereas Champagne looked much speedier. I know i shouldn't really be backing him but the Albert Barlett looks quite weak and if confirmed would probably start a strong fav on the day so 8/1 looks a fair price at the moment, going to have a bit of fun with a few multiples.
Pont Alexandre, Oscar Whiskey (WH) and My tent or yours |
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GL Brooksie
You might not know your fate till Tuesday 12th! |
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Un Atout - Supreme
Champagne Fever - Neptune Pont Alexandre - AB Arvika Ligeonniere - Jewson This is my pocket talking. Hoping to lay off at much shorter odds before final decision though. GLTA. |
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Current betting certainly suggests Brooksie and Maelduin are spot on, with PA to the Potato Race and CF to the Neptune.
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my main worry would be champagne dropping back to 2 and Pont then moved to Neptune. who knows lol
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There's no way Arvika will be going for the Jewson.
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"There's no way Arvika will be going for the Jewson."
I admire anyone who can say something so definitive about a WM horse with 10 weeks to go till race day. Are you Rich Ricci?  Seriously though i'd say there is a 25% chance they take that route given that AL clearly stays the trip. I wasn't impressed with his win lto and would say that at the moment he's at least 8lbs inferior to Simonsig. Cheltenham is all about winning and the Jewson looks the more winnable race for him. GLTU. |
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I would suggest that Dynaste would be more superior to AL in Jewson than Simonsig would in Arkle
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Fair point but i believe there is only a slim chance Dynaste goes for Jewson.
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Yeah I know you don't - I genuinely think its 50/50 at this stage
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I'd give him a 10% chance of going for the Jewson. Funny that. GLTU.
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brooksie, I caught part of a very interesting interview that ATR just had with Patrick Mullins.
Seemed to very much confirm that CF will be Neptune bound, he mentioned the race and no other, and that 2 miles was too short for him. Next year will be the time however. For the record he was asked directly what his ride was likely to be for the 4 miler. Said he'd tried to convince his Dad that should be Back in Focus with absolutely no luck so assuming he's RSA bound. Vesper Bell seems destined for that race. Stable like SDC for Gold Cup, think the distance will suit. Clondaw Court the one jockey likes most for Bumper. Over 9 weeks to go and it wasn't the trainer, but came across as sincere and fairly forthright |
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Champagne Fever runs in a grade two 2M 4F novice hurdle at Naas on Sunday.
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cheers for the update roobuck, that means Pont Alexandre either has a light campaign with Punchestown in mind or he goes for the AB.
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yeah but still tread carefully, you know what his Dad's like
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I don't know about Patrick but Willie can be confusing at the best of times. Even at the Cheltenham preview meetings, it's hard to know what his horses' targets will be. I wonder if he is genuinely unsure himself or more than likely not letting on. I know his modus operandi has been quite 'popular' on the ante-post forum in the past.
I think anyway Pont Alexandre should go to the Neptune and Champagne Fever to the Albert Bartlett. I would also question if Back in Focus would not be better suited by the 4 miler. That's my take anyway. I've seen this many times in the past with his novices hurdlers and the three novice races. What they say now is no guarantee to what will happen come the week of Cheltenham. |
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Notice the slight drift for Pont Alexandre on here for the Neptune, Champagne Fever looks confirmed to run tomorrow. Time to back PA for the AB guys. Unlucky if you've backed him for the Neptune.
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What price was Pont Alexandre on here for the Neptune?
He's 4.1 to back and 3/1 with numerous books now |
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he was trading at 3.8 couple days ago, noticed lot of money on lay side at 4.2 earlier on and now money lining up for Champ Fever.
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10th Feb
Willie Mullins believes Champagne Fever would be effective in any of the novice events at the Cheltenham Festival. Following his front-running victory in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday, the trainer reported it would be most likely the grey would drop back to two miles for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Last year's Champion Bumper hero, who was a big disappointment on his previous start at Naas, does still have entries in the Neptune Investment Management and Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdles. "He doesn't have to lead, but he has loads of stamina," Mullins told At The Races. "At the moment we have said the Supreme Novices', but he's so stoutly bred we could go any trip. "You could ride him a lot differently in the three-mile race. It's a huge difference in trip, but he gallops, he loves the track and he's all stamina in his pedigree. If he did go a longer trip we wouldn't make as much use of him." Willie has us running round in circles at the moment.... |