Cheltenham Festival
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01 Jan 13
15:29
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Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
Most of us see this horse as a real staying sort but is it possible that at Cheltenham, 3 miles is his ideal distance and the run to the line up that final hill on soft may see him fading while others run on?
This might seem an illogical viewpoint given that he got the distance perfectly well at Newbury but as another Hennessy winner, One Man, once found out, Newbury isn't Cheltenham.
My logic?
I've been having a good look through his pedigree and it certainly doesn't scream out dour stayer. He's out of Bob Back through the line on his dam's side from Kings Theatre. Neither are what you would call stamina laden national hunt types who produce a lot of top class stayers. I went back through the progeny of both from the best down to a RPR of 130. This involved well over a hundred decent quality horses and from what I can see neither of them has sired a top marathon chase winner and it is noticeable how few top class staying jumpers they have produced. Between them they have only produced a handful of horses to get the gold cup distance and a couple each which won over further but is noticeable how many have tried and failed when stepped up to long distance races.
Of course all sires produce anomalies whereby you have a national winner flat sprint bred and one positive element from memory is that on the dams side I think Synchronised came through Bob Back.
Still if it does come up soft I won't be rushing to take a short price on the day.
This might seem an illogical viewpoint given that he got the distance perfectly well at Newbury but as another Hennessy winner, One Man, once found out, Newbury isn't Cheltenham.
My logic?
I've been having a good look through his pedigree and it certainly doesn't scream out dour stayer. He's out of Bob Back through the line on his dam's side from Kings Theatre. Neither are what you would call stamina laden national hunt types who produce a lot of top class stayers. I went back through the progeny of both from the best down to a RPR of 130. This involved well over a hundred decent quality horses and from what I can see neither of them has sired a top marathon chase winner and it is noticeable how few top class staying jumpers they have produced. Between them they have only produced a handful of horses to get the gold cup distance and a couple each which won over further but is noticeable how many have tried and failed when stepped up to long distance races.
Of course all sires produce anomalies whereby you have a national winner flat sprint bred and one positive element from memory is that on the dams side I think Synchronised came through Bob Back.
Still if it does come up soft I won't be rushing to take a short price on the day.
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His best work is at the end of his races so I think if anything he'll benefit.
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agree 100%...looking for something that isn't there....IMO of course....I think he's top top class, nothing we've seen suggests that he doesn't get 3.2 very well, and we can only go on what we've all seen. |
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FWIW Nick Mordin writing about his RSA Chase win last season said:
He has a peculiar running style that involves rallying repeatedly. This is clearly very well suited to Cheltenham's stiff, steeply undulating course. Most horses get tired by having to slow down then speed up several times as they tackle the gradients but he thrives on it. Nicky Henderson's extended his unbeaten record at Cheltenham to four when taking this year's RSA Chase, eventually out kicking runner up First Lieutenant after a spirited due between the pair. Logically you might think that Bob's Worth now has a serious chance of winning next year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, given his affinity with the course. The one concern I have in this regard is that Bobs Worth is below average size for a chaser and has yet to run in anything but a single figure field over fences. My suspicion is that he could well be in trouble when having to fight for position in a crowded, competitive race against more experienced rivals Of course, this was before his Hennessy win although one could argue Newbury is a wide track and therefore decreases the extent of crowding - but that's getting very picky about things IMO. Also, his Doseage Profile [i]DP = 2-2-16-6-2 (28) DI = 0.75 CD = -0.14[/i, although admittedly a simplification of his breeding, would indicate a decent enough level of stamina for the Gold Cup. That's before getting on to the visual impression he created at Newbury, where he was hardly stopping. |
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FWIW Nick Mordin writing about his RSA Chase win last season said:
He has a peculiar running style that involves rallying repeatedly. This is clearly very well suited to Cheltenham's stiff, steeply undulating course. Most horses get tired by having to slow down then speed up several times as they tackle the gradients but he thrives on it. Nicky Henderson's extended his unbeaten record at Cheltenham to four when taking this year's RSA Chase, eventually out kicking runner up First Lieutenant after a spirited due between the pair. Logically you might think that Bob's Worth now has a serious chance of winning next year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, given his affinity with the course. The one concern I have in this regard is that Bobs Worth is below average size for a chaser and has yet to run in anything but a single figure field over fences. My suspicion is that he could well be in trouble when having to fight for position in a crowded, competitive race against more experienced rivals Of course, this was before his Hennessy win although one could argue Newbury is a wide track and therefore decreases the extent of crowding - but that's getting very picky about things IMO. Also, his Doseage Profile [i]DP = 2-2-16-6-2 (28) DI = 0.75 CD = -0.14[/i, although admittedly a simplification of his breeding, would indicate a decent enough level of stamina for the Gold Cup. That's before getting on to the visual impression he created at Newbury, where he was hardly stopping. |
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bobs worth is a serious horse, its beating of first lieutenant last year was of the highest quality and remains the benchmark for cheltenham hopes this year
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roger
Going back to an earlier point One Man won the Hennessy doing handstands and looked like he could go around again. As for First Lieutenant he has twice been outstayed over 3 miles paradoxically once by Bobs Worth. |
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Not sure what point you're making E-o?
3m2f at Newbury isn't the same as 3m2f at Cheltenham, granted. One Man (from memory) only won the Pillar (by a rapidly diminishing length or so) from Barton Bank over 3m at Cheltenham but Bobs Worth has already won four times at the track, twice over 3m. He loves the place. He might meet something better on the (Gold Cup) day but (IMO) staying the trip won't be an issue. |
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roger
I'm not known for hiding my light under a bushel. My point is that on the day for me he can win the gold cup at 2-1 and I'll be more than happy for him. On soft ground I'll be looking to take him on. |
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Sorry that doesn't clear it up. For me he has the class, he loves Cheltenham and this years form suggests he has the best form in the race. So for me if he is beaten it is because he didn't come up that last hill quite as strongly as one of the real stayers.
Don't get me wrong, I'm looking to promote a debate and his style of running suggests he will get home. Like I say though he won't be carrying mine if it is testing and I'll be looking to get him beaten. |
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Right, gotcha.
Yeah if it's hock deep then it'll be interesting - Tidal Bay maybe but be interesting to see what else lines up if it's that testing. |
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I think we're over-doing the heavy ground festival talk somewhat (probably perpetuated by tidal bay supporters
 )...yesss I know about the water table, but how will the ground be if we a good few weeks of dry weather, and yes I know it's an IF but whilst we're in this cycle of unusual weather systems that seem more prevalent in recent years it also means that an unusual prolonged spell of drier weather is just as possible, afterall it was only march last year when the country was officially in drought....heavy ground is very unlikely I'd say.! |
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To be clear I'm not talking about heavy ground. All it needs is a move away from the predominantly good ground we have had for well over a decade and some of these are going to need a ski lift on the run home. Again I'm not even talking about a genuinely soft ground Master Oats gold cup. All they need is Denman type ground on the soft side of good and most of them will be bow legged at the bottom of the hill.
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no one is saying it WILL be heavy Duffy,but the rain we have had since the Summer cannot be ignored cos people WANT a good/good-soft festival.
Yes i have backed some horses that like soft ground-TB is one of them.and thats cos i see that it COULD be softer than normal in March. Right now the course is waterlogged-it aint normally in Jan,and so far each meeting this season has been run on soft ground or worse. Those are simple facts. We dont know what the weather will bring us,buf we certainly need a fair dry spell,and any rain will just keep topping the levels up. |
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I'm of exactly the same mindset as budd.
Of course heavy ground is extremely unlikely but at the moment I will continue to challenge the assumption that it will the normal 'good spring ground' that we have been used to. Naturally the ground will dry out if the rail relents for a while and it does have to stop raining at some stage. However imo it will only need a really wet day in the lead up or during the festival to potentially have a significant impact on the going and that is very different to the last few years. |
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Nah!
Claisse will have the hairdryers out  |
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he'll still be out with his watering can Tuesday morning even if it's raining.
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Interesting read Eeternal, looking at the race from a different point of view.
I to do not think Bobs Worth screams out and out staying plodder; but he does stay very well and posesses good tactical speed. His form leading up to his Albert Bartlett festival would have put him bang in the mix in the Neptune, and was antepost favourite for that. He comfortably saw off a Champion Hurdle winner over 2.5 in their novice hurdle days. The question of 'relishing' the extra two furlongs in the Gold Cup is an interesting one. I do not think he will relish it, but then again I don't think he'll be hindered by it. I think Bobs and Sir Des Champ would be ad effective over 3m as they would 3m2. The one, imo, that will benefit from the extended trip will be Long Run more than anyone, and to a lesser extent Tidal Bay. The ones who I do think it will hinder will be First Lieutenant and Flemenstar (if he lines up). I also think that Conti may not relish the extra 2 furlongs, as I see him as a speedier 3 mile than a staying 3 mile chaser. |