Cheltenham Festival
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have been looking for some early possible value in the arkle chase , simonsig is the clear fav at around the 7/2 mark and as impressive as he was over hurdles he has not jumped a fence in public yet and vibes are a bit mixed ,also he has had reportedly slight problems with his splints, he may well show that the short price was in hindsight generous ,but i am inclined to look elsewhere .
overturn is a cracking horse and has been there done it and bought the t.shirt on both the flat and hurdles and won as he liked on his chasing debut he is currently trading around the 8/1 mark and as a grade 1 hurdles winner and champion hurdle 2nd he warrants plenty of respect, but he is getting on and has been in more battles than mike tyson ,he has an excellent chance and is tough but he has a few good trends to defy .
arvika legionaire is 2 from 2 in novice chases in ireland and won the grade1 drinmore novices chase at fairyhouse, jumping well leading all the way and coming home by an easy 11 lengths from the promising dedigout and 20 lenghts back to the usefull texas jack over 2.4 miles that is probably the best form on offer at this stage but that was in heavy ground and he will not have an easy lead with overturn in opposition his price is fair at around 8s .
the one who could offer a bit of value at this stage is jessie harringtons oscars well who made a very pleasing chase debut jumping well and winning by a very easy 20 lengths , he was made a short priced fav for his next chase but got no further than the 2nd fence and took a real bad looking tumble ,but he got up and it has to be hoped that he is none the worse for that experience ,he is trading at around 15 on here and 16/1 in lads and if as expected he had won that race instead of falling he would be much shorter in price now ,he was a very decent hurdler who was rated 160 and was 6th in last years champion hurdle beaten around 8 lengths but only about 3 lengths behind hurricane fly he was also a grade 1 winner over hurdles and chasing could be his game . at the prices he could reward an interest imo ...........................arkle chase ......OSCARS WELL 1 POINT EACH WAY 16S LADS good luck .
overturn is a cracking horse and has been there done it and bought the t.shirt on both the flat and hurdles and won as he liked on his chasing debut he is currently trading around the 8/1 mark and as a grade 1 hurdles winner and champion hurdle 2nd he warrants plenty of respect, but he is getting on and has been in more battles than mike tyson ,he has an excellent chance and is tough but he has a few good trends to defy .
arvika legionaire is 2 from 2 in novice chases in ireland and won the grade1 drinmore novices chase at fairyhouse, jumping well leading all the way and coming home by an easy 11 lengths from the promising dedigout and 20 lenghts back to the usefull texas jack over 2.4 miles that is probably the best form on offer at this stage but that was in heavy ground and he will not have an easy lead with overturn in opposition his price is fair at around 8s .
the one who could offer a bit of value at this stage is jessie harringtons oscars well who made a very pleasing chase debut jumping well and winning by a very easy 20 lengths , he was made a short priced fav for his next chase but got no further than the 2nd fence and took a real bad looking tumble ,but he got up and it has to be hoped that he is none the worse for that experience ,he is trading at around 15 on here and 16/1 in lads and if as expected he had won that race instead of falling he would be much shorter in price now ,he was a very decent hurdler who was rated 160 and was 6th in last years champion hurdle beaten around 8 lengths but only about 3 lengths behind hurricane fly he was also a grade 1 winner over hurdles and chasing could be his game . at the prices he could reward an interest imo ...........................arkle chase ......OSCARS WELL 1 POINT EACH WAY 16S LADS good luck .
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good call, you could just be about right and 16s is good value, just hope he's ok after his fall.
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yeah brooksie that is the worry !
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Oscar Wells = always the bridesmaid and never the bride...........cant be trusted. Three I have way ahead of OW - Simonsig, Captain Conan and Arvika Leg.
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yeah his win record over hurdles was not fantastic but he raced mainly in graded company and he might just be better over fences . good luck with yours ,ya pays ya money ya takes ya chance .
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yes nice call foyles have been chipping away myself at the 16's on here and lads for a few weeks...just hoping he is ok after heavy fall last time but if he can bounce back on track over christmas he has always looked top class and his first run was pleasing...I haven't been able to help myself at the price which i think was a slight over-reaction but with the price comes a risk, as he did take a very heavy fall and is always risky as you don't know how it will affect his confidence for the future but its hoped they can get him back on track at christmas i'd say at leopardstown...thats when the real hype can begin...but until then its quichy bum time
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same here harry gone in only half of what i would as the fall is in the back of my mind .
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Which stats does Overturn have to defy other than the 9 year old one?
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well i've had a decent dig as think he is an overlay at the price and i can forgive him that early fence fall at a tricky fence for a novice...
halling he may well of been a bridesmaid but he has been an unlucky bridesmaid, has always looked a chaser in the making and we know he was a top class hurdler...he's got load more to give... as regards your 3 coupled at around even money simonsig hasn't seen a fence yet and has been uneasy in the market...captain conan looks a proper soft ground horse to me until he proves otherwise....and arvika ligeonaire has seen the track admittedly impressively twice in 2 1/2 years and has the extra vooodooo stigma of being a drinmore chase winner which has not produced i believe a single cheltenham winner in 18 years.... out of interest why do you have these 3 way ahead...just explain so i can understand your reasoning??? to say you have these three way ahead is borderline in ante post terms for me.... |
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er that may be the only one gcw ,i am not knocking his chance and he is probably the highest rated of these over hurdles my concern is that he will be a 9yo and he has had more races than the united nations. but he could buck the trend and he would be a popular winner .just at the prices he is a little short for me .
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@GoldCupWinner
Not sure, the highest rated hurdler has a good record AFAIK I know horses who spent more than one year over hurdles have a poor record in the RSA but not sure it carries over to the Arkle (Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer My Way De Solzen Sizing Europe and maybe others have won it recently) |
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Third Intention ;)
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Was just asking in case there was any I missed. Only been 8 9 year old runners I think. I had a quick look before and found 5 of them. Barton was priced 9/2 and disappointed. A 100/1 shot and a 20/1 were UP and a 7/1 shot fell at the 2nd in same race. I know Captain Cee Bee broke a blood vessel but unlikely he would have won given who won that race. I'm not sure how relevant the stat will be given how genuine the horse is but I am biased.
Oscar Well could well be a good pick come march btw. Will surely be one of the highest rated hurdlers if turning up. |
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think its 5 from 11 best hurdler has won it
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found a 400/1 a 50/1 and a 12/1 horse too so only 2 of the 9+ year olds were acually single figures. Could argue the captain was unlucky not to place since he got injured and placed in the next years CC.
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Been a long time fancy of mine for this race,Barely picked up when falling lto and i'm willing to forgive him this mishap as his first round of jumping was exemplary.
Hoping to see him out this weekend where the plethora of stars out elsewhere will mean once again he will slip by unnoticed by the majority and hopefully the odds compilers. Currently i have the race between him and Overturn who i hope dispatches Conan with the minimum of fuss at Sandown. |
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harry - my distrust of Oscars Well is personal and painful. Have backed the horse with complete faith over last two years since (and including) his last fence blunder in Neptune when he looked far and away the best horse against some top novices including First Lt and Rock On Ruby. I have been waiting for that form to return and it just hasn't so I have moved on. If he romps up in the Arkle a small part of me will be delighted (not my pocket) coz it would mean my original view was sound but I have lost the faith. Theres something between his ears that is not right for me.
 The reason I have the other three ahead of OW is partially explained above and I accept the use of the term "way ahead" may be for effect. I have seen Simonsig schooled over fences and he looked sound as a pound and with his known engine I just think he could be the real deal over fences. Captain Conan looks a beast and I know some sound judges in the 7Barrows yard really like him. Arvika just looks outstanding each time I have seen him run and I am simply going on what my eyes are telling me. I accept Arvika might be physically fragile so this is an AP risk but as explained above I think Oscars is mentally fragile. Thats my thinking. All comes with a health warning coz I have known to be wrong before !!! |
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GoldCupWinner, as well as the age stat (I know you point out that not many have tried, but that in itself could be quite a pointer to it not being a good idea), there is also the fact that he is a flat bred (Pipe pulled it off with a couple of these - Well Chief and Contraband - but they were rare exceptions, and also only 1 front runner in 30 years has won the Arkle, and that was Azertyuiop who was left in front from the 3rd fence, not through choice.
Whilst at face value he looks to have a cracking chance, mix all the negatives and stats together and it would be some feat for him to win. |
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He looked a fabulous chasing prospect 18 months ago (I labelled him the next Best Mate on here
 ). I even kept tipping him for last years Champion Hurdle at fancy prices such was my love for the horse. Not so sure the ability that I hoped he had is there now (if it ever was) so while he could easily be a major player based on some of his hurdle form I won't be backing him even at 16/1 until he convinces me he is still top class and has the attitude to go with it. |
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well unclep i was thinking looking at his form figeurs that he perhaps should have won more races ,but he has been running in the highest company over hurdles in ireland often against hurricane fly and co and his performances may not be that bad as it seems .
looking at the race there dont seem to be many who are miles better than him ,in fact he is probably 2nd highest over hurdles !his chase debut win was a very good effort and and the well beaten 2nd has come out and been a decent 2nd in a graded chase . |
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Hayling,
How on earth do you have those 3 way ahead of overturn? |
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sorry,i see it may not be way ahead,but am interested in why you think the highest rated hurdler thats shown he can jump,is not in your first 3.
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unclep
Ditto almost to the letter. His Neptune loss was a b1tch, no doubt about that but I thought he was definitely worth following last season either over fences or 3 miles (he wasn't stopping at the end of the Neptune IMO and why race him in Ireland for a year over hurdles over 2 miles against Hurricane Fly?) Instead, we know what Harrington did with him and look at him now - confidence shot and regressed over the past 12 months. |
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can any one explain how this regressive animal went up from 147 in november to 160 in april last season please !
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Because it's only won an egg and spoon race, when 1/2 favourite, in the last 18 months. Now it's confidence looks shot and it's class is questionable when with the correct handling, could have done so much better.
It's the Arsenal of the horse racing world basically. |
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budd - I havent referenced Overturn but I prefer the three quoted mainly on the age stat and I just think Overturn flatters to deceive and we all have a soft spot for him because he front runs, is consistent, always gives it everything and runs flat, hurdles and chases and is a thoroughly likeable horse but in my opinion when the top horses show up at Cheltenham he is never quite good enough. Never won at Cheltenham. He is the Roy Castle of the racing world - Jack of all Trades and Master of none.........I have been known to be wrong but this is what I see with my eyes.
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fair enough HB, cheers for answering.
Personally dont worry about his age,cant think of many hurdlers with his rating going in the Arkle at 9. Hes a fair way ahead of these as a hurdler,and can jump Sandown really well,thats good enough for me at the moment. Think at this stage AL is the one i would most worry about as his main challenger. |
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budd - its a sound case you make. We may know a little more @ 1:55 Sandown SAT 8 DEC 2012 MARKEL INSURANCE HENRY VIII NOVICES´ CHASE (GRADE 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+).......coz if he doesnt beat Capt Conan at Sandown I cant see him beating any of the three at Cheltenham. For the record I do think Overturn should beat Capt Conan round Sandown on saturday. Looking forward to it.
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The fact is that other than his chase debut where all he had to was jump round to win, he has not looked remotely like winning another race (closest was a 3 1/2L 3rd). Yes he has been beaten by some high class hurdlers but he has constantly been in contention and then failed to find much - formbook is filled with comments like 'no extra' 'faded' etc.
I am not saying he can't win, and I hope he fulfills my earlier expectations and goes on the great things over fences, but personally in this case I'm happy to wait until I see him put in a top level performance where he finishes his race strongly (say in the Grade 1 2m1f Novice chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day) and then back him for Cheltenham at a lower price, than go in now on a hunch just to get the perceived value - YMMV.  |
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I don't really know why the age stat is a problem. Plenty of 9-10 year olds win the CC so can't see why they can't win the arkle. I think it's just most chases are already chasing at a much younger age.
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I'm a fan of overturn but I suppose it's a question of how much improvement as a horse he would be making at that age and whether or not what we saw from him the other day is pretty much it, it was impressive though wasn't it, these younger horses who are built for chasing and only spend that one year over hurdles and are improving on a steeper curve than he is now can catch up very quickly can't they.
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Think normally its a case of if they are made for chasing, and will be naturals at it, they go chasing earlier. Overturn is a lovely horse and wouldn't be surprised if he had a say, but would feel that on the day one or two may be too good. You'll get a run for your money though
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He was just below the very best over hurdles. Is very highly rated on the flat, who knows how good he will be over chases? He jumped well on the only we've seen him and that's half the battle in these races.
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^^^^ Only just below the best over hurdles GCW
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just the ticket
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were you happy with that today foyles...I certainly was...more to come i'd say
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yes harry he had the race won from a very long way out (barring mishap ) and jumped very well, gotta be happy with that !
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anyone big on there times??
they appeared to go quick in the both novice chases but oscars ran 49 seconds over racing post standard and the other novice also run at a fast pace 75 seconds over standard...i do my own handicapping figures but any time boffs know there times in relation to the 2 races over the distances??? |
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Just to pick up a point roger made earlier, I agree last season was underwhelming and can be viewed as something of a waste of time with hindsight, but I think the fact he was kept to 2mile hurdling with Hurricane Fly around suggests how highly Jessica thinks of him. Either that or she lost her mind last year.
 He's an obvious chaser, built and bred for it, looks magnificent imo, but she wasn't in any hurry and was confident enough to give the Champion Hurdle route a go, which meant running him in a lot of small field Irish 2m races with no pace. It didn't work out, but she's not one to make unrealistic plans for her horses and it says a lot of what she thinks of him. He didn't disgrace himeself, just wasn't a Champion Hurdler. |
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he never looked out of 2nd gear to me today and he could be a lot better on better ground .
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