calling judorick or jocciclub

2012 trends

The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers in the past decade including 3 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes and Sizing Europe.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-5-23
6yo: 1-2-29
7yo: 5-7-51
8yo: 2-6-25
9yo+: 0-0-8
5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this.
7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5.
In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.

Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-8-51
French Bred: 3-7-37
German Bred: 1-3-11
British Bred: 1-2-31
Other: 0-0-6
Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side, though Irish and French bred runners have taken the last 6 renewals.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)

Other Races
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Blackstairmountain): 1U66913 (2-1-7)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: 3U1262 (1-3-6)
November Novice Chase winner (Al Ferof): 21FF26F5 (1-2-8)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Lucky William): 01 (1-0-2)
Altcar Novice Chase winner (Our Mick): P51 (1-0-3)
Pendil Novice Chase winner: 5P1 (1-0-3)
Halloween Trophy winner (Cue Card): 32635 (0-3-5)
Irish Arkle winner (Flemenstar): 6206403 (0-2-7)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Al Ferof): 52F17292 (1-3-8)
Noel Novice Chase winner (Zaynar): 2 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Foildubh): 43 (0-1-2)
At The Races Virgin 534 Novices' Chase winner (Kumbeshwar): U2 (0-1-2)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Kid Cassidy): P5350 (0-1-5)
Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 835P5 (0-1-5)
Atteys Solicitors Novices' Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 80 (0-0-2)
Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Shot From The Hip): 4U (0-0-2)
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 122
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice chase, finishing 12
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Arkle, finishing F2
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Craddockstown, finishing 11

Trainers
Alan King (2-0-5) has trained the winner of this twice since 2002.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-17) trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 12 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places.
Phillip Hobbs (1-2-5) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his last 5 runners in this.
Irish trained runners (3-3-36) have a fair record in the race, producing 3 winners from approximately 26.5% of the total runners and they been responsible for 2 of the past 3 winners, while their only representative last year was placed.
This has not been a happy race for the biggest Irish trainer, Willie Mullins (0-0-7), in past 10 years, seeing all 7 of his runners finish out of the frame.

Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals should be focused on, but it has not been a good race for the favourite.
Favourites (1-3-10) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 7.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 7 or an 8yo who has won a grade 1 hurdle
·         Irish or French bred
·         Run in 1 to 5 chases & never finished out of the first 2 when completing
·         Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
·         Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
·         Officially rated 140 or higher over hurdles
·         Course winner or placed in a hurdle at Festival (or having first start here)
·         Trained by Alan King, Philip Hobbs or in Ireland
·         In the first 5 in the betting, no bigger than 9/1

it's one of the best races for trends at the festival too

I can't remember the numbers exactly but quite a high number of winners went into the race as the highest rated hurdler in the field

I will be doing the research in the couple of weeks before the meeting

Knowledge is power and threads on trends are invaluable especially to peeps like me with limited time to study all the form for oneself...............chapeau gentlemen !

Thanks judo and as for SS wow ! just wow!