How do you rate Bobs Worth's Gold Cup prospects now?

I rated Bob's doing 4 more than the RSA win and the rating I have him at right now was on par with what I had Synchronised doing in last years Gold Cup which was slightly sub par level. I think this years has a few more progressive types with SC and possibly SDC. Tidal has probably done the best ratin of this year but you've got to think a few months down the line and a faster surface and Ruby on SC that his ratings may drop a bit.

All in all Bobs Worth ability to handle Chelt and the big field and the rating he's shown right now makes him worthy fav. I think SC has more latent ability the Bobs but has still to prove he can handle the hustle of the big field fast pace chase at Chelt. His jumping makes me think he will but on what we know right now Bobs is worthy fav and if he were to improve 2/3 pounds in March he'd be very hard to beat. He looked very fit to me however and fresh so not sure how much more there is to come.

Sorry Tom can't relate to official handicap figures they are bizarre.

Thanks for your thoughts racingguru.

I gather you don't use official handicap figures, and don't blame you! Out of interest, if you have Bob's doing 4 more than in the RSA, how did you equate his RSA performance with, say, Synchronised's Gold Cup win?

I find Bobs Worth's position at the head of the market quite understandable. The Hennessy may not have been the strongest but at no time in the last mile did there look like being any other winner.

He may not be the sexiest of runners, but he is honest and reliable, and would say his jumping is improving run by run. If he is in contention turning for home in the GC, his resolution is going to make him very hard to beat.

This could be such an open year that we may have another favourite after Sunday and again after the KG.

Tom - I had Bob's doing 4 ratings less than Synchronised in the RSA v GC.

RPR's had Synch doing 9 more - not sure what the official hcapper said but I'm not one that believes 2nd season chasers improve that dramatically like people think. Think its more the top end chasers are ridiculously handicapped and the second season ones haven't had the opportunity yet to get ridiculously handicapped.

^ I agree with that, and interesting as I have similar figures for the RSA v the Gold Cup. I personally thought last year's Gold Cup was a very average one in terms of form, so that's why I still have Bobs needing to improve a good bit more than most people seem to.

That said, roobuck, I do agree. He never really looked like anything but the winner on Saturday and I would not be surprised if he does improve the required amount. It's more that he looks awful short to me based on that possibility, with so many other potential stars on the up (plus, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Long Run perform better this term. I am convinced he left his season at Haydock last term but had an altogether easier time of it this year and should leave that form behind).

Tom - i think where we will differ is that I only had Synchronised doing a rating 4 less than Long run the previous year so whilst I would say last years GC was sub par it wasn't sub par by much and LR is no world beater.

I was most impressed by Bobs Worth. He could do no more than win, and although his style of racing is different, the performance was on a par with Denman's first win in the race in that he was running first time out under a big weight and won comfortably. So many second season chasers have been wrecked by running in the race when not quite fully fit and/or not quite good enough and never recover. The way that Bobs Worth cruised through the race and jumped really well suggests that he will come on for the run rather than be scarred by it. Silviniano Conti is the only contender that I would want to back against him at the moment.

good post tom the general consensus on here in the few weeks running up to the race was that this hennesey looked the worse for years ,but the right horses filled the 1st 4-5 places and bobs worth always looked like winning really , i also agree that first leuitenant tired in the last 1-2 furlongs and at 3 miles it may have been a different story ,it certainly would have been closer .
hendo said he was trained for the race so there may not be as much improvement as expected ,but with this one he only just does enough so a bit difficult to gauge,he loves cheltenham and is a battler/ grinder strong stayer type who i always try to look for in a gold cup and ticks a lot of boxes  but he is too short a price imo .
long run may have had a much harder race than first seemed when winning his gold cup he was facing 2 ex champions who although a little bit past their best  were giving there all and had been there and done it before .
indeed 2 out he was being ridden and looked beaten but had been in less wars than the older  warriors and was able to run on as those 2 felt the pinch over the last 2 fences and up the hill.
silviniarco conte has looked good and proves he stays 3m when winning his 2 races this season but he has not been in a head to head ding dong  battle yet and untill this happens we dont know for sure what will happen he may be all class and just quicken away from opponents we will see and he is also a bit short in the betting for me .
i like the look of the battle proven al ferof (although not confirmed for the race yet )who was possibly  raced over trips shorter than his best  the last 2 seasons his wins were workmanlike rather than flashy on the  bridle jobs , but when he got more testing conditions  and more of a stamina test in the paddy power he was a revalation and travelled and jumped and powered up the hill he also showed his class when winning that exceptionally strong supreme hurdle beating the likes of spirit son ,cue card ,sprinter sacre among others ,if hr stays the extra distance of the gold cup and i cant see any reason why he wont ,indeed he may improve for it he has that touch of class and battling qualitys needed to take it to the next level imo and he is still a cracking price . i may be biased  having backed this one months ago at long odds  but at the prices  around 28 on here it could pay to take the chance , problem is p.nicholls has said he could be a gold cup horse next season . put it this way if he were to win or run well in the king george i think connections may find the lure of the gold cup hard to resist.

racingguru

I am pleased that I am not the only one who doesn't rate LR's gold cup win as highly as the "officials". Personally I make the gap between Synch and LR even closer than you.

Great thread lads (and lassies!)with thought provoking stuff. I concur with Tom's summary and will be astonished if BW starts favourite on the day. At this stage though he has done it over the trip, he is a Cheltenham horse and we probably still await his principal opponents to strut their stuff.

I'm not convinced even Hendo considers BW championship class but the horse keeps confounding him on the track, which is after all where it matters.

The Sawyer - Synchronised was actually better than his GC win - so yeh I agree with you. Synchronised made a couple of mistakes early in the GC and the ground was plenty fast enough so I couldn't give him any more than I did. Had he had a clean run he could have won that comfortably.

Bobs Worth reminds me of Imperial Commander, just a genuine tough sort who relish's Cheltenham. I'd have him as the strongest contender of the home team

I tend to look at outsiders this time of year, ones that I think will become players as the season goes, and I'm currently hammering 3 horses who aren't even priced up with the books yet.

Having said that, I find it really difficult to pick holes in Bob's Worth at all. He looks as solid a chance as you could hope for at this time of year, think as the winner he's staring me in the face.

Pretty much in agreement with Guru here

and the point about second season chasers 'improving' is very pertinent too - they simply have not had the opportunities in enough high quality races to reveal how good they are and, of course, have generally been restricted to racing only against novices in the previous season. When finally they take on the older horses in open company they then get the chance to show what they can do. So when Long Run gets beat off 158 in the Paddy Power and then wins the KG on his next start he didn't improve 20lbs overnight, rather he was already that good just hadn't had the right chance to show it.

This years second season chasers do look an exceptional bunch and they have won virtually every significant race this season when they've been represented (Old Roan, Charlie Hall, Hennessey, Haldon Gold cup, Betfair to name a few)

As for Bobs worth, he's clearly very smart and will be a strong contender in top class races including the CGC. We will have to see where he ends up in the pecking order.

I didn't really expect him to win on Saturday - I was hoping for a similar shape to last season, where he almost slipped under the radar for the RSA as the more glamorous types were talked up for the race. So I was hoping for a bit 14/16s post-race, as on all known form he is a much better animal around HQ in March and he is the one I really wanted to get onside.
So much for that theory! I think he is a worthy favourite, the last 2 years saw a return to the type of grinding win that used to typify Gold Cups (we've been spoilt by the superstars of the previous 5 years), Bobs seems exactly that type.
I've said elsewhere that I don't think Long Run is as good as everyone (myself included) thought. Silv Conte has never been asked to race at the festival before and was kept for Aintree last year - I don't understand quite what has changed there - and everyone else still has it to prove, SDC included.
I've had a micro-bet on Champion Court, as I think the races he ran in last season could well add up to being the best form from a staying chase perspective and he certainly loves it around there, but that was price dictated, triple figures . Other than that, I'll wait until January and a few others have staked their claim, in the hope of getting around 8s on Bobs.

Desmond if BW hasn't run again before you play, there's no way you'll get 8s.

Even if a couple of other stake their claim in the interim and overtake him as favourite, I still don't think it'll have much effect on his price tbh - other horses might just be shorter

I think he deserves to be fav. Whilst I agree that wasnt the strongest Hennessy, his racing style is such, that he is never going to be a flashy long distance winner imo. He just gets the job done. So I think he could have won a much better Hennessy in the same fashion.

He looks the absolutely perfect horse for the GC to my eyes. Has proven course form, is tough and consistent and reliable, and will relish the final slog up the hill.

There may be horses with more natural ability, but he's the one I'd want on my side on the day.

I think Bobs is a very worthy favourite for the Gold Cup at this point. Obviously as a lot of people point out his main strength is his staying ability and we all know there wont be many staying on up the hill after 3 mile 2 better than Bobs, but looking back through all his wins which include a RSA, a Hennessy, a Albert Bartlett and a grade 2 2 mile 5 novice hurdle beating the future champion hurdle winner one thing that strikes me is that Barry G has never once whipped him before the last hurdle/fence. This isnt your typical stayer who will be getting scrubbed along and a few remainders 4 fences from home to stay in touch, hes got the speed to stay in touch with anything and then quicken and stay aswell. In the Hennessy jumping the last for a stride or 2 i thought TB was going to put it up to him but when Barry gives him his first smack to my eyes you can visually see Bobs quicken.

He might not have the flashy natural brilliance of Kauto or the raw power of Denman but make no mistake about it this is a serious horse and while obviously got a long long way to go before being mentioned in the same breath as those two greats i definitely feel were talking about the new star of the national hunt game.

Big fan of Bobs and Come on hardy has pretty much said my thoughts too,will be very hard to beat come The Gold Cup

What price first 3 home are all 2nd season chasers

When reviewing the form in hindsight, perhaps one of his best efforts was to overhaul Cue Card at Newbury. Sprinter Sacre is the only other horse that has beaten Cue Card over fences. Yes he was getting 7lb but it was only 2.5 miles and it was his first chase. Beating Rock on Ruby wasn't bad either. When you look back a year, he was beating horses that now look very good. He is certainly not slow.

Can someone explain to me how this was a weak renewal of the Hennessey and give better examples? The winner is a multiple Cheltenham festival winner and last years RSA champion. In second is a rejuvenated Arkle winner who most recently won the Bet365 off top weight on the bridle before blowing away the cobwebs this season by winning a G2 over hurdles with ease. 3rd place is yet another Cheltenham festival winner and last years RSA 2nd. Then we have Badger Ales winners, Irish National winners, Cheltenham 4 miler winners, Aintree festival winners, Previous Hennessey winners who were all receiving weight from the first 3 home. I think it was a very strong renewal and generally when the Hennessey contains some top class horses it ends up being run like a level weights G1 and I think that's what happened. First Lieutenant went off at a G1 pace and very few could handle it. The cream rose to the top and I'd certainly have Bob's Worth as the best rated staying chaser in the country which means he should be near the top of the market in the Gold Cup.

I agree with you masterminded first 3 are very good horses. Conti bobsworth 1 2 in gold cup

When we've had some horrific renewals like last years and Madison Du Bearlais i cant understand why people thought this was weak

Agree with all about the worthy winner, also about PN keeping SDC away from Cheltenham in the last festival doesnt fill me with confidence

The Hennessey has not been a particularly good indicator the next Gold Cup winner

Denman won in 2007 before winning the 2008 Gold Cup but then you have to go back to Bregawn in 1982 who then won the 1983 CGC

after that I think you have to go back to Arkle in '65/'66.

Just something to think about if you are contemplating taking the current price with a lot of racing to be done before the big day

I don't quite get the viewpoint that the topweights doing well makes it a good renewal or low weights doing well makes it poor etc. Right horses near the top etc ......??

There didn't appear many well handicapped horses near the bottom of the weights bar one or two that both ran shockers but if one of the low weights  had won 15 lengths from Bobs Worth in 2nd - it wouldn't change what Bob's Worth did rating wise. Just you'd be getting 12's instead of 5's and the consensus would be he was exposed.

Either you rate the form or you don't - pretty simple.

as it stands the form would not be good enough to win a typical Gold Cup (beat Tidal Bay in receipt of 6lbs) so you have to believe he can improve enough from now to then to think he can win

the problem at this stage is not knowing what level of form will be required to win the Gold Cup mainly because there are so many unexposed horses that could run in the race and it's virtually impossible to say how high they could go

The horse has done nothing wrong and on balance deserves to be near the top of the market. His Cheltenham Festival form is top class, he stays the trip (which we don't know Flemenstar and Sir des Champs do) and he keeps on improving. No negatives really but not a price you'd probably want to go overboard for at this early stage of the season.

Let's point something out and that is that there a very few big field handicaps in a season in which we see genuine G1 horses running in handicaps. The 2 that spring to mind are of course the Paddy Power and the Hennessey. This is why these races are the most anticipated handicaps of the season bar maybe the novelty that is the Grand National. When people go back through the history of the Hennessey it's the Arkle's, Denman's and now probably the Bob's Worth's that are remembered. This is what people are talking about regarding strong renewals it's when top class horses win the race and go on to compete in things like Gold Cups. It's not when a limited handicapper has the handbrake let off after a year and wins by half a length to then struggle to win another race. I don't think you can take any other view of the form being solid when the best horses in the race come out near the top and in strong renewals this is almost always the case. The fact is while weight stops trains when given a realistic chance class will overcome limited horses receiving weight. When people talk of strong renewals they are talking about the race being full of good horses surely?

Anyway still waiting for numerous example's of better Hennessey's if this is considered a weak one...

Back to Bob's Worth and the Gold Cup I think you have to take into account how much was left. Barry gives him a couple of slaps to make sure after the last but crossing the line he's being eased down and running away with it. He needs to improve again but not by much more than a few pounds and he certainly looks capable of that.

He needs to improve again but not by much more than a few pounds and he certainly looks capable of that.

the amount that any horse needs to improve from their current level is completely unknown because there are a bunch of unexposed horses that could produce any level of form

all we can say is that Bobs Worth (and frankly most of the contenders) will have to raise their performance in order to win a typical Gold Cup but there is no guarantee this will be a typical renewal

Judo you know what I meant you are just being picky there. You don't need to tell me something I already know.

only being clear on what we are talking about

I think it is difficult to rate the form at present too. The lexus will tell us a lot more should the two placed horses line up.

Would of been nice to see first lt run against flem and champs, would of given us some ties.

He's got to be a well worthy fav at the right price, a twice festival winner and now a hennessy that in the end was easy enough, we talk about him being a grinder type, but this doesn't do him justice because he does travel through his races and it's simply that geraghty never really sends him about his business to late on, I wonder what he may be capable of if they had a mind to really see what the horse could do at an earlier stage in the race.

When you look at the current relative prices of say sir des champs and bobs worth, you have to think that it's the irish horse that is too short on comparison of what the two have so far achieved, what was the reason that it was thought that first lieutenant was best suited to running in the rsa instead of the much easier jewson? He hasn't won the races or beaten good enough horses to warrant such a strong position, his current price is due in no small part to the fact that's he's captured peoples imagination and there is an expectation/hope that he's capable of so much more rather than what he's actually done, in relation to being at the top of the gold cup market in such an apparent competitive year.

Deffo not a backable price though, he won't be any shorter on the day imo,

This is all developing nicely with some great points.

To reiterate my original stance, I am not knocking Bobs Worth in any way, I'm just knocking his price and questioning the merit of the Hennessy form as making him Gold Cup favourite. What does everyone else think of the run of The Package? As I said in my opening post, his previous runs off 147 suggest the level of this form is not as strong as some might think it is.

To join the discussion about what makes handicaps 'strong', I take issue with the idea that it's when the higher-rated horses come out on top. It is of course case-dependent, but generally, I'd think a valuable handicap is stronger if a lighter-weighted horse on the up wins it as there are invariably lots and lots of these that have been hiding their light under a bushel in anticipation of the big day. Now, occasionally you get a Denman, whose greatness is such that he can win off the highest weight against lighter-weighted improvers with scope to go much higher. I would be happier to accept the likelihood that Bobs Worth is in that mould if any of the lighter-weighted horses ran with credit, but they didn't, and this was backed up beforehand as many people thought there weren't that many lurking in the race (hence, it wasn't the strongest renewal in my eyes).

I also think it's important to distinguish between races. The Hennessy, as judorick pointed out, has not been the strongest Gold Cup trial in recent years (again a suggestion that Denman's ability puts him in a slightly different category for analysis purposes). I think that's because, by and large, trainers have not wanted to run their best horses in such a gruelling race off high weights. I'm not really sure whether that is a good or a bad thing for Bobs Worth's prospects in the Gold Cup. He clearly has a good chance but as I said right at the top, I wonder if he lacks a tiny bit of class. I'd agree that Sir Des Champs is short enough too based on his achievements, but the manner of his win in the Jewson marked him out as a better horse than Bobs Worth in my book, so I'm less surprised that he is so short in the Gold Cup betting.

Not sure what you call a typical Gold Cup. If Kauto Star, Imperial Commander and Denman were around at or near their best then Bobs Worth would need to find quite a bit, but against the likely opposition he looks well clear to me. Only Silviniano Conti and maybe Long Run have shown form to challenge him but there are a few in Ireland yet to show their hand. They will have to have stamina as well as speed to beat Bobs Worth on decent ground.

I think 5/1 is a fine price. I had him as a 7/2 chance after The Hennessy.

Key points for me:
Hennessy was just his 5th Chase: fair bit of improvement to come
NJH has always insisted the horse was not right for his Kempton & Ascot runs and did not come right till just before the Festival
He has two Festival wins already
He stays, jumps and, vitally, has gears
Appears sound of wind and limb (touch wood)

Long Run, like MMinded, is over-rated by about 10lbs due to his visually impressive GC win (Denman and KS past their best, JtFav Imp Commander was pulled up lame/bleeding). Also LR cannot bend his back under pressure and leaves his hind legs in fences (don't think I've ever seen him hit one with his front legs).

Silv Conti, I'm unsure about but suspect he's had the run of his two races this season and Cheltenham might test him beyond his limits at that level

SDC, unbeaten record could well be due as much to good placing by trainer in his 5 chases (2/7, 2/7, 4/7, evs. 3/1) though he is obviously a threat.

Flemenstar's style suggests to me he will struggle to get the trip: there are doubts too about his attitude to travelling

First Lieutenant is beginning to look exposed

Tidal Bay, love him but surely not?

Al Ferof, reportedly waits till 2014

Although he probably won't stay, it might be worth a small saver on Cue Card at 33 just in case. His form is of the highest order and I think he could well win the KG (him or Al Ferof).  Bobs Worth is a year his senior yet CC gave him half a stone and should have beaten him at Newbury (Tizzard looking round unbalanced his horse, imo, and he lost on the nod).

I'd strongly recommend a bet at 5s.

Good luck
Joe

Denman's first Hennessy imo was very weak. When you take a look back through the horses that ran and you flick through what they've all done. There is very little to get excited about, bar Denman obviously. I would rather take a horse running in proven graded company than a horse running in handicaps. The difference in this years Hennessy though is we've seen 3 grade 1 horses fill the frame, so I really do think the form might be worth taking note of.

I think most people would say Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant are sme way better than Dream Alliance, Character Building and Madison Du Berlais, all placed in Denman's first Hennessy which he won from a similar mark to Bobs Worth. Take out the fact that it was a handicap and that looks like graded form of a high level. Looking at the 2 Irish horses, Sir Des Champs looked good in the Jewson but Champion Court is not considered a Grade 1 horse and his other victories have been against slow horses and Flemenstar, no doubt a good horse on soft ground in Ireland, has stamina to prove and has never seen Cheltenham so Bobs Worth ticks a lot of boxes. Just don't see his price contracting in the short term as he probably won't be seen again for a couple of months, possibly even until the Gold Cup but he's just about the one to beat.

Good post Steeple. I do not now need to post!

Succinctly put Steeple. I rate SDC highly, this weekend may shed more light on his true level. BW ticks all the boxes for me also.