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01 Dec 12 21:53
Date Joined: 13 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 29,355 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
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Pause Switch to Standard View What would Tidal Bay have achieved under
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Report Howdi December 1, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
Paul Nichools if he'd spent his career with him?

alot more I think!!!
Report Far From Trouble December 1, 2012 10:08 PM GMT
A hell of a lot more!
Report barnesy December 1, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
This is why it makes me laugh when people say 'this horse would be such and such a price if it were trained by Paul Nicholls'
Report Far From Trouble December 1, 2012 10:18 PM GMT
Indeed. Nicholls knows the time of day, never ever rated Howard Johnson

Inglis Drever may have won at Aintree under Paul Nicholls Laugh (forgetting he lost his maiden tag there Silly)
Report Can't Catch Me December 1, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
I thought the exact same thing today Howdi. Simply fantastic what he has done with his horse. Hats off to him.
Report rogerthebutler December 1, 2012 11:35 PM GMT
What would Tidal Bay have achieved under

11 stone?
Report CheltenhamRoar December 1, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
Well of levels...A Gold Cup come match Tongue Out
Report ACStafford December 2, 2012 12:01 AM GMT
Would have been a top class horse if he'd been with Nicholls the whole time. Maybe Wylie is starting to realise that he wasted far too much money on HoJo.
Report CheltenhamRoar December 2, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
Do u lot forget he ran plenty of shockers since he's been with Nicholls?
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 2, 2012 10:34 PM GMT
when they were learning, so it took them a few races to make him look top class as a veteran.
Report Navel-Gazer December 2, 2012 10:46 PM GMT
I was wondering why Tidal Bay wasn't in the Gold Cup last March, so I don't think Nicholls deserve THAT much credit!
He'll be a 12yo come March so he may have missed the boat last season.

Then again...he's a strange horse and may not have been in the best of form at the time.
He was never of interest to anyone in last year's ante-post market though, but I had him onside in case anything went wrong with Kauto Star or What A Friend - he's a better horse than the latter.
Report duffy December 3, 2012 12:13 AM GMT
don't think he'd have won too many gold cups or king georges in the past 5 years.
Report racingguru December 3, 2012 6:49 AM GMT
Under Nichols - I reckon he'd have won 4+ Gold Cups and Kauto would have been forced to stick to 2m at Chelt and win King Georges. Denman would not have been a factor.

My ratings are not what everyone has by any means but I had Tidal doing the best staying chase rating of 2012 twice and that at 11. At 12 I wouldn't rule him out but I hope he don't run selfishly as am on SC ante post.
Report johntucker December 3, 2012 7:15 AM GMT
Report chelters16 December 3, 2012 12:08 PM GMT
Racing guru-wtfCry
Report ACStafford December 3, 2012 10:13 PM GMT
Report racingguru December 4, 2012 3:51 AM GMT
I make no apologies for my ratings - remember I called Synchronised as good as Long Run after the Lexus and bet him accordingly. The ratings given by the official handicapper to the top end horses are bizarre. I'd like to think I'm way better than him for chases at least.
Report EdwardWoowardWould December 4, 2012 8:35 PM GMT
I was told by Paddy Brennan that this was the best hing he had ever sat on and had one of my biggest ever wins ante post at 25/1 in the Arkle

They royaly fuukked him after than and I could never see what had gone wrong

It turns out they never really took the time or had the ability to work out what was ailing him and destroyed him

All it needed was attention to detail that he now has and fair play to PN , many other trainers would have worked him out also imo

It is simply a fact that HJ ran a shabby meat market with a rich backer but sure as eggs is eggs virtually EVERY horse he had would have been better trained elsewhere

He was a bully and a feckin horrible man ( Paddy could tell a few tails if he chose to )
Report Denmanism December 5, 2012 5:38 PM GMT
RG,Denman would not have been a factor? If your not joking,then you Sir are a complete mug!
Report racingguru December 5, 2012 6:32 PM GMT
All I'm saying is Tidal Bay given equal training would have much the better horse than Denman. Do you think Denman would have the speed for an Arkle and win a Whitbread too? Now my premise that Tidal Bay having say just won an arkle and then stepped up in trip for Nichols and proving he stays would have have been Nichols gold cup horse with Kauto being campaigned from 2m - 3m at Kempton and Denman would be the second string for the Gold Cup. I just don't think he could ever have beaten Tidal given clear rounds IF they had been equally well trained. It just me interpolating my ratings of Tidal at 11 back to what he presumably been able to do from say 6-10 and what ratings I had for Denman.

Nothing but a what if presumtion but the ratings I have now for Tidal are every bit as good as Denman's best so I think its a fair conclusion albeit completely hypothetical as is the question.
Report Denmanism December 5, 2012 6:37 PM GMT
All I'm saying is head to head in Gold cups,Denman had a winning record against King kauto,let alone a "hypethetical" Tidal bay.There is also the heart surgery factor to through in but I wouldn't want to be pedantic.Please don't crab a great horse,that's all I'm saying
Report Denmanism December 5, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
Report Navel-Gazer December 5, 2012 7:50 PM GMT
I think I'm correct in stating that BEFORE this season's Arkle, Sprinter Sacre had a higher rating than ANY Arkle WINNER (after they'd won) over the last 30+ years except for Tidal Bay.

It shouldn't be forgotten just how good Tidal Bay has always been.
Report Glossy December 5, 2012 8:23 PM GMT
I wouldn't discount racingguru's opinion off at all. I think he may have been slightly optimistic on TB's ability but I certainly think the horse has the raw ability to have had made the KS/Denman battle a three-way tussle.
Report Brooksielad December 5, 2012 8:26 PM GMT
I hope Howard Johnson never trains a horse again. Tidal Bay was badly let down by that plank.
Report DukeofMarmalade December 5, 2012 8:27 PM GMT
Had he been trained by Nicholls he would probably have finished 5th in the Grand Annual after playing 2nd fiddle to Noland in the 2m Novice Chase divisionLaugh
Report duffy December 5, 2012 8:44 PM GMT
Are we saying that johnson made the horse quirky?
Report Glossy December 5, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
I'm not (and have never been) convinced that the horse is a 'quirky' as some like to make out.
Report racingguru December 5, 2012 9:13 PM GMT
Denmanism - I don't believe Kauto truly stayed the GC trip so Denman's "feat" of beating him there is all that amazing. Undoubtedly he was a very very good horse nonetheless just I think Tidal could have been something else. What about Norton's Coin? How good could that have been if not trained by a one horse yard that had prolly less than 20 winners lifetime for the stable. This wins the GC and beats Waterloo Boy over 2m4f in firm after they've gone no pace for 3/4 of the race. I know this horse would not be rated in the top 20 horses of that decade but potentially just think there was a super superstar in him with better handling.
Report CheltenhamRoar December 5, 2012 10:58 PM GMT
racingguru,are you a LIverpool fan by any chance,

Your delusion knows no bounds.

Tidal Bay is a very,very good horse,But to talk about him in higher regard than the likes of Denman and Kauto is nothing short of idiocy.
Report racingguru December 5, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
Obviously on what Tidal Bay has achieved relative to Denman and especially Kauto he is not close but this discussion is about "what if" Nichols had him from early.

I don't think it's much of a stretch of imagination to say Nichols is easily 20lbs better a trainer than HJH. We've seen countless horses improve loads for leaving HJH and that to no name trainers and Nichols has improved all the ex HJH horses by plenty.

Go given Tidal Bay was already an amazing winner of an Arkle under HJH over a trip which was clearly too sharp why is it much of a stretch to suggest had he improved 15-20 lbs from there under Nichols he'd be next to unbeatable? Kauto was clearly exceptional no doubt but his ratings for me slipped when he went to GC trip so all I am suggesting is over that trip he wouldn't have been able to handle Tidal who clearly stays better. As for Denman, whilst a very very good horse he did ratings at his peak which were only slightly higher than Tidal is doing at 11 going on 12. Before you go there I'm not going to apologise for the official handicappers lunacy in rating top horses 180+ - completely bizarre!

So again and this is on my ratings (which I make huge profits to stake on every year) it is not hard to think that Tidal could have been 10 ratings better at 8 than he is now - is that hard to interpolate? And if he was 10 better then Denman and Kauto could not live with him over the GC trip. I did not say he'd beat Kauto over 2 miles etc.
Report zilzal1 December 6, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
Nicholls has said that there was some Bleeding issues, not every ailment is easily diagnosed and its my opinion that he has been hurting for a lot of his career and that he'll only really show his best on really soft ground.

If you look at previous videos of his jumping and then look back at the Whitbread then you wouldnt think it was the same horse
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