Cheltenham Festival
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Long Run
Well, what can we say about this horse? As it turns out, lots. He was a big dissapointment in the Gold cup last season, ending 3rd in the worst Gold Cup in over a decade. Connections have been saying he had a minor issue during the end of last season and that has now been ironed out. It's fair to accept he may have had a problem, as his form in the Gold cup was a stone below the form he showed in the King George earlier same season. So if we are ready to forgive Long Run for his Gold cup flop?
There are a few things in his defence that need to be made, the reason I backed him for his 2011 Gold cup win was due to Mick fitz giving us the info Henderson denied us. Long Run was found to be wrong post race after the Paddy Power. I then drew a line through the race and looked at the other form on show which was impressive King George winner with a good novice season behind him. He had to be backed.
So if we look at last season and put a line through his Gold Cup 3rd, and examine the rest of the form it looks good. He made jumping errors yet came 2nd to a fully fit racing Legend in the Betfair Chase. He ended 17l clear of the next horse when coming 2nd in the King George. He won the Denman Chase at Ascot where he may have had or picked up this "issue" who knows.
So on to this season. Can he bounce back? Well lets just remember how Kauto was beaten in both King George and Gold Cup before bouncing back last season. It goes to show that consistent brilliance can't even be accomplished by the greatest of greats. But bouncing back is a common thing in the modern era of chasing as both Kauto and never to be forgotten greatest race ever 2nd Hennessy by Denman. So why not 7yo Long Run? Yes 7 !!
I do hope connections can not only take heart, but actually learn something from last seasons defeats by Kauto. Play to your strengths. Kautos are numerable, mainly his electric jumping. But Long Run has his own skills of bottomless stamina. So Long Run needs to use it, he needs to be making the running and play to his strengths like Denman would.
It's nice and soft on Saturday in the Betfair, go run his rivals into the ground. Then at Kempton none of his main rivals have won at 3m before. So run them into the ground too. There requires a good judge of the pace from the jockey with a tactic such as this, so maybe Sam is worried he isn't up to it. Yes that would be a worry. But you'll never know if you don't try.
It's time to try.
Well, what can we say about this horse? As it turns out, lots. He was a big dissapointment in the Gold cup last season, ending 3rd in the worst Gold Cup in over a decade. Connections have been saying he had a minor issue during the end of last season and that has now been ironed out. It's fair to accept he may have had a problem, as his form in the Gold cup was a stone below the form he showed in the King George earlier same season. So if we are ready to forgive Long Run for his Gold cup flop?
There are a few things in his defence that need to be made, the reason I backed him for his 2011 Gold cup win was due to Mick fitz giving us the info Henderson denied us. Long Run was found to be wrong post race after the Paddy Power. I then drew a line through the race and looked at the other form on show which was impressive King George winner with a good novice season behind him. He had to be backed.
So if we look at last season and put a line through his Gold Cup 3rd, and examine the rest of the form it looks good. He made jumping errors yet came 2nd to a fully fit racing Legend in the Betfair Chase. He ended 17l clear of the next horse when coming 2nd in the King George. He won the Denman Chase at Ascot where he may have had or picked up this "issue" who knows.
So on to this season. Can he bounce back? Well lets just remember how Kauto was beaten in both King George and Gold Cup before bouncing back last season. It goes to show that consistent brilliance can't even be accomplished by the greatest of greats. But bouncing back is a common thing in the modern era of chasing as both Kauto and never to be forgotten greatest race ever 2nd Hennessy by Denman. So why not 7yo Long Run? Yes 7 !!
I do hope connections can not only take heart, but actually learn something from last seasons defeats by Kauto. Play to your strengths. Kautos are numerable, mainly his electric jumping. But Long Run has his own skills of bottomless stamina. So Long Run needs to use it, he needs to be making the running and play to his strengths like Denman would.
It's nice and soft on Saturday in the Betfair, go run his rivals into the ground. Then at Kempton none of his main rivals have won at 3m before. So run them into the ground too. There requires a good judge of the pace from the jockey with a tactic such as this, so maybe Sam is worried he isn't up to it. Yes that would be a worry. But you'll never know if you don't try.
It's time to try.
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Replies: 41
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are you backing or have backed long run for the gold cup cv
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I am as on the fence as there could be about this horse. I think he can bounce back yet I have the nagging doubt he isn't going to and the King George and Gold Cup wins fell into his lap.
I'm thinking of backing him to do the double IF I see him run from the front on Sat. I'll back him during the race. But still making my mind up, only Sir Des Champs and Al Ferof backed for Gold Cup so far. |
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yeah i have a nagging doubt about long run ,he has been beaten all 3 times he has come into a race off a break of 6 months or more (nick mordin)so if he is beaten on saturday its not the end of the world as he improves significantly from his first run ,it will be interesting to see how the giant bolster gets on against him in the betfair . also backed 3 so far for the gold cup al ferof ,finains and a mad speculative punt on sunnyhillboy .good to see ya back on the forums ,
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Well forget that stat. One was over 2m4f when the horse was wrong post race. Hendo kept this under wraps until mick fitz was talking about it in ATR preview as if it was a know fact. He was near shouting it. You may remember I started a thread about it on here and then backed him for the Gold Cup based on the info.
Then his other loss was to Kauto where Kauto was fit to run for his life while, as you do when you're confident Long Run wasn't fully wound up. This time I'd assume he'll be much fitter. But it's more King George/Gold Cup I'm thinking about for him. Losing on sat would not be good. They need to make the running on this dour stayer. If they do I'll be keen to back him for KG/GC before the race is a circuit in. |
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I believe Kauto pulling up in March cost Long Run the Gold Cup. With 3/4 left to jump Ruby would have poured it on,meaning the lesser lights would have fallen by the wayside and possibly only Long Run and maybe TGB could travel well enough to stay in contention with Long Run, my fav out the 3 to win.... instead that retard SWC is content to wait with these avg horses and not use LR's natural stamina to full affect. He def has a chance this year.
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Excellent point alex
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Kauto and Long Run were both big winners for me this year,and was gutted when Kauto pulled up,cos i totally agree,it cost both horses the race.
As for LR,gut feeling is hes not as good as we thought he was. I think he caught Kauto at the right time with him not performing as he can,and Denman was on the way out imo. Mind you i would be interested in front running tactics for LR,could be a fair point that. He is still a young horse as well. |
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The problem is, as you rightly say in the OP, the jockey. Not sure SWC has the confidence or the clock in his head to set the right fractions
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Can't call this horse at all. Was also convinced about the stamina point at the time but on reflection how does that sit with a strong uphill finish in a truly run race and him being outstayed by two other horses? I thought he would beat them hollow however the race was run and he didn't. He was good enough over a flat 3 miles at Newbury but not over quarter of a mile further on a stiffer course. That was for me sadly a fact last year. Anything else is conjecture.
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perhaps the "french" issue that kauto star and to a point master minded dispelled, is actually coming into focus again with this one.
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LR has a great engine and very few horses could win a gold cup jumping like he did. Seven is quite young but would agree with Bud re the Frech breds - although I reckon MM proved rather than dispelled the theory. I do however find it difficult to believe that a poor jumper can win two Gold Cups.
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Don't think he gives his all anymore, keeps a little bit back for himself. Also may have developed follower tendancies and don't think he'd be keen on making the running. For me the only other option is that there was something bothering him last season that
could have cleared up. |
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Long Run is a Grand National horse. My cash is on that opinion, and here's why.
This is a horse that stuffed the opposition in the Feltham a few years back......as a (nominal) 4yo. A truly exceptional performance for the age and distance........you won't see young horses putting up that sort of performance very often. So precocious....likely to come off plateau at an earlier age? Breeding: The RP index of the sire Cadoudal is 18.0...an out an out stayer. Topweight in the Grand National.....no problem. This horse isn't a handicapper, he carries 'top weight' every race. He's a poor jumper, so Aintree will destroy him....never fallen. You don't win a King George and a Gold Cup if you're a bad jumper. but the Grand National is a handicap ......he'll be at the mercy of well handicapped horses. Long Run will be one of the best handicapped horses in the race due to the compression of the weights. His OR is currently 178....he's likely to run off 168....but has the ability to put in a 178 performance. Give it a year or two, he might be rated 168, get a Gn rating of 164 and only be capable of putting in a 160 performance. RWC maybe the Chairman of Cheltenham Racecourse, but he's no mug. SWC has won a Gold Cup on Long Run, but I'm sure there is a very strong desire to win the GN ....just look at the purchases of Oscar Time and now Frisco Depot (not good enough imo). I'd have Bobs Worth ahead of LR in the Henderson stable for the Gold Cup. If LR were mine I'd be looking at the GN this season.....strike while the iron is hot! |
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will be looking to lay him every time he runs
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They would be mental to run him in a Grand National, 4/6 on the ambulance in that match bet! Would be a ridiculous decision, I know he has never fallen in the UK, but he has given liberties at his fences at times.
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Judge, I'd be looking to lay on the Betfair and the KG.....once stepped back up in distance he'll come back into his own.
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i will be laying him in the gold cup too lufc
by the way how you doing? long time no hear |
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The stable and the owners are convinced there was a problem last year and the horse will come out this year and be back to his best. At his best his wins Betfair this and Gold Cup doesn't he ? So if he wins Saturday expect prices to be impacted. Bookies will be on it in a flash. Nailing my colours to the mast - I am on Long Run for Gold Cup but reckon there are a few speedsters - Al Ferof and Finians Rainbow - who could nick the KG from him over a less challenging Kempton.
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Interesting you say that HB as I would have Kempton as the course he has been most consistent at
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Five opponents Saturday. If he cant win it I would draw a big thick line through him.
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My revised view is that he has never been as good as perhaps I thought he was. With the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure that his CGC win was not up to much, lump-in-the-throat thrilling though it was. Last season, I think he was running to pretty much the same level, which I don't think will be good enough this year. Besides which, despite his relative youth, there are a fair few miles on the clock - there is a limit to how many times you can go the the well - I doubt he has any improvement in him.
I'll be a layer this season and wouldn't be surprised if he finished up winless, particularly as everything we've seen so far suggests that last seasons novices were a decent bunch. |
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I actually think he was as good as he looked when winning the KG and GC. As I've said a couple of times on here before though, I recall someone mentioning that his family don't do much after the age of 7. Add to that he's a French bred and its quite possible we've seen the best of him already unfortunately.
I don't think he was too bad in the Betfair or KG when beaten by Kauto last season but I don't think he was at his best after and while I expect he may still be capable of one offs even at 7 it looks like his best days are behind him imo. |
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I am keeping the faith in the RW-C theory he wasnt right last year. Really hoping he trots up saturday to comfort me.
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Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course and I hope he does put in good performances this season, but when you just look back at his wins and the horses he beat at the time you must wonder if the reaction to him was a tad ott.
For instance can we all remember the reaction when he beat up tazbar in the feltham, he then smashed up what was it, edmond at warwick. The kauto star situation is strange because remember that the hysteria was enhanced when he beat him in the KG and again along with denman in the gold cup we were at fever pitch, but the funny thing is when the questions were started to be asked when kauto turned it around in the betfair and KG, we were to believe that kauto was below form the previous season and was "back" the next...but how could kauto have been "back" because one season later he is finished, the truth may well be that the whole lot of it is a good couple of levels below what we thought and we were all just fooled into believing that anything smashing up kauto had to be very very special. |
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Good points Duffy, although Denman ran Cheltenham very well he wouldnt really have been suited by the virtually g/f ground that year
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Yes that's right, with the kauto thing again, isn't it probably right that kauto has been below his best for the year LR beat him but even last year he was well below his best but the difference was that , nicholls alerted to it more than ever was able to pull the rabbit out the at and harness every drop of talent that was left and get him to deliver it twice more in the space of 6 weeks and propel him one last time in front of LR who wasn't as far ahead as we thought.
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I think it's easy in years gone by to pull form to pieces. I mean look at Kauto's greatest King George. He ended up beating a horse in Madison Du Berlais who never won another race finishing up on a chase rating of 134 and Barbers Shop who couldn't win until running in Hunter chases. We all know how good Kauto Star was but my point is that you can tear 90% of races up and chuck them into the bin if you look at them in a negative way. I don't think Long Run is likely to improve a whole lot from last season as he has done so much as a young horse. I do think he was way under form in the Gold Cup though and you will see a much better horse than that. He's a very good horse and would be a lot better without carrying a dentist around.
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starting to think the Giant Bolster is the won to be on in the Betfair
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He's a very good horse and would be a lot better without carrying a dentist around.
classic line that  |
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You forget how horrible the fall was Kauto took in the 2010 Gold Cup. That could have taken awhile to get over. While in Kauto's loss to Long Run in the King George he was found to have a low grade infection. It all could just have had an effect on him that season. While in the Gold Cup Kauto and Denman cut eachothers throats battling it out at the front and Long Run the dour stayer stayed on past them up the hill, even What a Friend nearly nabbed 3rd from Kauto he was that tired.
That season was the first Kauto didn't win at least 2 of the 3 big G1s, Betfair Chase, King George or Gold Cup. So something was likely up with him. |
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shhh... mccoy rode kauto in that king george
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I'm also of the opinion that he just isnt as good as I first thought. Agree with you though CVB, being more positive could be the right move.
That said, I have a decent bet on him at 6/4 for Saturday, and think he is an outstanding price. |
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I think 7/4 is too big a price. I've sided with him today, decent bet.
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agree on paper 7/4 is big oin ratings nearer even money mark
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that ground doesn't look as bad as we thought does it, they aren't exactly finishing legless at the moment.
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ground looks bad at ascot funny race that
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whyyyyyyyyyyyy trot along behind ruby u dumb pr!ck :)
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Time for the big thick pen and continue it along through Grands Crus
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Hit every fence on the first circuit, bad jumper
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