Cheltenham Festival
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1. As some suspected, Fingal Bay may not be quite the weapon many thought he was, especially in slowly run races.
2. Pipe has another couple of handy looking novice chasers in Dynaste and Our Father.
3. Dodging Bullets confirmed his promise with another good win in a strong looking field. Genuine novice hurdle Festival hope for Nicholls.
4. Nicholls also looks to have the early season stand-out candidate for the Triumph once again in Far West. Time will tell whether he's another Hinterland or not.
5. An awe inspiring weight carrying win from Al Ferof throws him in with a chance in the Ryanair/Gold Cup if running to that level again.
6. Captain Conan looks to be a horse that was born to jump fences and definitely will be one to stay with when there's some cut in the ground. Beast of a horse.
7. Timmy Murphy is still a class act given decent rides.
8. Whilst not beating much, Wishfull Thinking showed that he retains plenty of ability providing he's allowed to gain confidence in his jumping (and that he stays on his feet after running through the first!)
9. Coneygree looks to be a nice type for a staying novice hurdle. His relentless gallop was reminiscent of the late Brindisi Breeze last year.
10. Grand Crus flatters to deceive at the highest level once again. Serious questions must now be asked about whether he can handle a fast pace in a large field of good quality horses.
Anymore for anymore?
2. Pipe has another couple of handy looking novice chasers in Dynaste and Our Father.
3. Dodging Bullets confirmed his promise with another good win in a strong looking field. Genuine novice hurdle Festival hope for Nicholls.
4. Nicholls also looks to have the early season stand-out candidate for the Triumph once again in Far West. Time will tell whether he's another Hinterland or not.
5. An awe inspiring weight carrying win from Al Ferof throws him in with a chance in the Ryanair/Gold Cup if running to that level again.
6. Captain Conan looks to be a horse that was born to jump fences and definitely will be one to stay with when there's some cut in the ground. Beast of a horse.
7. Timmy Murphy is still a class act given decent rides.
8. Whilst not beating much, Wishfull Thinking showed that he retains plenty of ability providing he's allowed to gain confidence in his jumping (and that he stays on his feet after running through the first!)
9. Coneygree looks to be a nice type for a staying novice hurdle. His relentless gallop was reminiscent of the late Brindisi Breeze last year.
10. Grand Crus flatters to deceive at the highest level once again. Serious questions must now be asked about whether he can handle a fast pace in a large field of good quality horses.
Anymore for anymore?
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Good write up glossy. Agree with most to a lesser or greater extent other than 3. Think the 2nd and 3rd in that race will prove to be better longer term prospects
Good summary Glossy.
In the Far West race I was taken with Vasco Du Ronceray who travelled powerfully for a long way and expect both him and Far West go be there or thereabouts come March.
I though Gerraghty was very easy on Vasco after the last, when he knew he wasn't going to win, and I think there is the potential for big prizes in him. I wouldn't be surprised if he could reverse the placings with the winner in the future.
It's a shame the Dodging Bullets race was a muddling race because I'm not sure what it told us re the Supreme. It did show though that he travelled so much better than a few weeks ago, and although pulling a bit, he settled much better to.
Also agree about Captain Conan, and he looks like he can go to the top over fences. I still think he'd be better suited to 2m4f this season, and then step up to 3m next season, so I'd hold AP bets on him for the moment.
In the Far West race I was taken with Vasco Du Ronceray who travelled powerfully for a long way and expect both him and Far West go be there or thereabouts come March.
I though Gerraghty was very easy on Vasco after the last, when he knew he wasn't going to win, and I think there is the potential for big prizes in him. I wouldn't be surprised if he could reverse the placings with the winner in the future.
It's a shame the Dodging Bullets race was a muddling race because I'm not sure what it told us re the Supreme. It did show though that he travelled so much better than a few weeks ago, and although pulling a bit, he settled much better to.
Also agree about Captain Conan, and he looks like he can go to the top over fences. I still think he'd be better suited to 2m4f this season, and then step up to 3m next season, so I'd hold AP bets on him for the moment.
I think one, somewhat off-radar, thing it told us was that trainers like Jonjo, Malcolm Jefferson and Ferdy Murphy, who can ready one (or several) for the Festival are going to have some seriously well-handicapped horses come next March.
I dont know if i can take a lot from it for next years festival in mind, last years meeting only yielded Teaforthree from all the 1st three home at the meeting who won the next March
Roger imo is bang on about well handicapped horses, you dont want to be near the dreaded 150 mark, cos theres nearly always a couple who are so well handicapped lurking in the 130s. Keep the pullout from last years meeting and the spring festivals would be my advice.
I think the main thing to take out of the non handicaps nowdays is the growing gap between the big trainers and the rest, you virtually could have Nicholls/Henderson Pipe v The Irish at the festival nowdays, throw in a couple more in the hcaps and you can trap the winner in around 70% of races
Then all you have to do is pick the right one
Roger imo is bang on about well handicapped horses, you dont want to be near the dreaded 150 mark, cos theres nearly always a couple who are so well handicapped lurking in the 130s. Keep the pullout from last years meeting and the spring festivals would be my advice.
I think the main thing to take out of the non handicaps nowdays is the growing gap between the big trainers and the rest, you virtually could have Nicholls/Henderson Pipe v The Irish at the festival nowdays, throw in a couple more in the hcaps and you can trap the winner in around 70% of races
Then all you have to do is pick the right one
My biggest take from the the 3 days is that Nicky Henderson a great 2m Chasing Novice option if Simonsig cant jump !!!!
Some great points. Mine would be not to totally ignore horses that didn't run to their best in behind. The ground was very testing and with only 6 finishers in the Paddy Power it just goes to show the even younger horses in the novice races should be given a 2nd look. Some really impressive winners over the weekend though.
I thought that Coneygree was the most interesting horse seen at the meeting. He destroyed the field in the 2.5 novice hurdle and would have been a furlong in front if it had been 3 miles. He could easily be better than his brother Carruthers. Al Ferof was certainly impressive but the RPR of 174 looks high at this stage with so many horses running poorly. I always doubted whether Grands Crus had the pace for a top class 2.5 mile race.
Aye I think it is pointless looking for potential handicap winners at present. Just look for horses with good course form who are also on a good mark nearer the meeting. Even hard to judge the top races with so few horses having yet showed their hand.
Well you say that and you are almost certainly right. However if they can get him to the meeting off a similar mark, and its decent ground, Prospect Wells travelled well enough for the first 3/4 of the Greatwood, to make me think he could be aimed/primed for the County.
I was very taken by Court Minstrel again. He was probably the most inconvenienced by the slow pace & met trouble on the run in. I think he could be very good in a strongly run race.
I agree with Masterminded; I'd be reluctant to dismiss horses based on disappointing runs as conditions were more testing than I can remember for quite some time at Cheltenham.
I see what you are saying Roo but Prospect Wells is hardly going to go under the radar anyway having ran well in a supreme. Some horses will show nothing all year until the festival and then you're left guessing if they've been laid out or are just gone at the game. Son of Flicka and Buena Vista spring to mind, off the top of my head.
I thought Cash and Go was the most wonderful looking animal I've seen for a long time. He has an aura about him, and I'd be surprised if he didn't turn out to be top class, probably over fences.
Meanwhile, and this is pushing the boat out, I felt Olofi absolutely thrashed his field and I think he is about to slice through the ranks. He got an entry in the Christmas Hurdle last year, and his trainer is not one to make Clve Brittain-esque over-estimations of his horses. I think if he gets a clear run from here he can become a lively outsider in the CH picture.
Meanwhile, and this is pushing the boat out, I felt Olofi absolutely thrashed his field and I think he is about to slice through the ranks. He got an entry in the Christmas Hurdle last year, and his trainer is not one to make Clve Brittain-esque over-estimations of his horses. I think if he gets a clear run from here he can become a lively outsider in the CH picture.
If Dodging Bullets wins the supreme novices I will cycle acrossed India - No chance.
Walter Grout - I have to agree with you Cash and Go is a stunning looking creature. Really nice looking individual.
Walter Grout - I have to agree with you Cash and Go is a stunning looking creature. Really nice looking individual.
will look forward to the cycle ride...why can you not have dodging bullets high law??
given easy lead, race looked to suit him more than others, if you could not see that, your race reading is nil
But judging Dodging Bullets on that race is surely not the point. His Triumph run makes him a leading contender. All of his best runs have been at Cheltenham. The big negaitive is the number of runs he has had which makes me doubt if there is any improvement left to come.
Dodging bullets is still failing to settle properly in his races after 14 career starts, that must worry anyone as regards his ability to progress further.
jrw 23 Nov 12 07:28 Joined: 28 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 1,189 | Blogger: jrw's blog
given easy lead, race looked to suit him more than others, if you could not see that, your race reading is nil
interesting considering the horse isn't a front runner and was a 4yr old giving weight to older horses on ground he wouldn't of liked...I'd question your own race reading if you think thats as good as the horse is...
howdi yes he has why should that concern us??
given easy lead, race looked to suit him more than others, if you could not see that, your race reading is nil
interesting considering the horse isn't a front runner and was a 4yr old giving weight to older horses on ground he wouldn't of liked...I'd question your own race reading if you think thats as good as the horse is...
howdi yes he has why should that concern us??
spot on harry. taking an easy lead is the last thing ruby wanted for dodging bullets. was never at all comfortable so actually the race made me pro dodging bullets coz showed me he has better options in his running capability. nobody wanted to take lead so ruby just went. never the plan. hated every minute of it.
harry callaghan
23 Nov 12 13:46
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jrw 23 Nov 12 07:28 Joined: 28 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 1,189 | Blogger: jrw's blog
given easy lead, race looked to suit him more than others, if you could not see that, your race reading is nil
interesting considering the horse isn't a front runner and was a 4yr old giving weight to older horses on ground he wouldn't of liked...I'd question your own race reading if you think thats as good as the horse is...
howdi yes he has why should that concern us?? ..........................EASIER TIGER I WAS ONLY ASKING AS I WASN'T AWARE OF IT.
23 Nov 12 13:46
Joined:
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| Topic/replies: 1,159 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
jrw 23 Nov 12 07:28 Joined: 28 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 1,189 | Blogger: jrw's blog
given easy lead, race looked to suit him more than others, if you could not see that, your race reading is nil
interesting considering the horse isn't a front runner and was a 4yr old giving weight to older horses on ground he wouldn't of liked...I'd question your own race reading if you think thats as good as the horse is...
howdi yes he has why should that concern us?? ..........................EASIER TIGER I WAS ONLY ASKING AS I WASN'T AWARE OF IT.
My gut feeling is that he's a high class horse but on the balance of his form I'd be disappointed if there aren't at least a few better than him come March.
That's all anyone has said though isn't it? That Dodging Bullets is a good horse with a genuine chance. Can't see anyone going overboard about him being nailed on for the Supreme!
I'd agree it would be foolish to write DB, it wasn't his fault how the race panned out. Personally i didn't really pull lto and if he did, its all to his credit that he pulled it out at the end of the race.
However on balance he's not for me for the Supreme
However on balance he's not for me for the Supreme
^^ that reads all wrong . Should say @I didn't think he really pulled lto'. Put it down to Friday evening drinks!
. Should say @I didn't think he really pulled lto'. Put it down to Friday evening drinks!
the thing is how can we judge the balance of his form?? (he did run 4th on his second career start in the triumph (and a hot triumph for me) and was 6 wide the whole journey with the choke out...I'd tend to agree with tomdeane in regard there should be a couple to good for him...I can't draw a conclusion from that race at cheltenham though...that was bordering on farcical but certainly wouldn't be knocking the animal for making his own running when he isn't a front runner, giving weight to his elders and finding plenty when challenged...
my main concern for the future was the fact the horse got very warm pre race which for me also made his run more meritorious but also asks questions of his temperament...he has alot of growing up to do but doesn't lack scope...I wouldn't be so quick to write him off and his next run will tell us more
people questioning others should at least come up with a decent argument to back up there rash statements...yes we can all say we told you so after the event but at least back that with a decent reasoning...its boring otherwise
my main concern for the future was the fact the horse got very warm pre race which for me also made his run more meritorious but also asks questions of his temperament...he has alot of growing up to do but doesn't lack scope...I wouldn't be so quick to write him off and his next run will tell us more
people questioning others should at least come up with a decent argument to back up there rash statements...yes we can all say we told you so after the event but at least back that with a decent reasoning...its boring otherwise
Doesn't he tend to come on and off the bridle in his races?, could get a bit too far behind.
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