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Cheltenham Festival

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Howdi
12 Nov 12 07:27
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 29,355 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
Panel:

Richard Hollies (Channel 4)
Lee Mottershead (Racing Post)
Gine Bryce (At the Races)
Tom Symonds (Trainer ex Henderson yard)
Paul Jones (Stats Man)

Bullet Points taken from the evening:

Hurdlers (Part I)

Horses mentioned:

Darlan, Cinders & Ashes & Grandouet are horses to play in Champion.
Ranjaan - Keep an eye on him to win good race.
Clondaw Kaempfer - Best novice hurdler seen so far (Jones)
Ambion Wood - One to follow
Knight Pass - Switched to David Pipe yard and could be interesting in whatever race/s he takes on.
Flash of Genius - Given favourable mention.
Minella for Fitness - Given favourable mention
Present View - Given favourable mention
Get me out of here - Good each way bet for World Hurdle (festival pedigree, open to improvement over futher)
Big Bucks - 25-1 (P Power) to be top rated horse at the end of 2012-13 season. Paul Jones recommended the bet as he could see Big Bucks racking a big rating if he ran in the Brush hurdle or beat Peddlers Cross in the World Hurdle. Overpriced he suggested should he be campaigned more aggresively.
Peddlers Cross - Lost the plot and Mccain doesn't know why. Due to meet Oscar Whiskey over 2.4 miles shortly. Panel think we may have seen the best of him.


Panels Tips for season
                                               Festival Tip                                    Horse to follow

Mottershead                             Big Bucks                                       Bold Sir Bryan
Bryce                                       Darlan                                           Dynaste
Hollies                                      Kazlilan (Greatwood)                      Clarek Cloak
Symonds                                  Fin Rainbow (King George)              Pendra
David Williams (Ladbrokes)        Domination (Greatwood)                 Minella for Steak
Paul Jones                                Giant Bolster                                  Snake Eyes (Likely to debut at Newbury Henn meeting)

Chasers:

Sommersby - Gone to Mick Channon (interesting switch)
Finnaians Rainbow WILL NOT run in the Rynair - Owner says its Champion Chase or Gold Cup!!! (Lay it now)
Simonsig could win championship races at 2 miles or 3 miles he is that good - maybe as good as Sprinter Sacre.
Our Father - Favourable mention
Fox Run - Favourable mention
Nicky Henderson has a strong a squad as Paul Nicholls has ever had!
Sanctuaire - Panel thought overated a little as 2nd highest rated Novice for years (behind Sacre)
5 of last 11 Arkle winners have been top rated Hurdler - very interesting stat!!!!
Captain Conan - Flying at home. (Arkle bound)
Long Run - Got lazy and blinkers were mentioned. Paul Jones still thinks he can regain his title.
Broadback Bob - 33-1 RSA - Huge shout for this horse from more than one member of the panel. Enterered against Fingal Bay & Dynaste this weekend.
Gian Bolster - Paul Jones 'would be 12-1 for Gold Cup if trained by PNichools. 'This year is his year'.
Burton Port - Still interesting horse and jockey told Symonds he could have beaten Long Run at Newbury In February but didn't want to be hard on the horse.
Lie Forrit - Must surely win a handicap chase this season as thrown in on his hurdle form although acknowledged poor run already this season.
Arvika Legionaire - Smashing horse and could win from 2 up to 4 miles.
On his Own - HUGE talking horse for the Grand National. (Nearly all the panel fancied it)

Really good night, frank discussion and worth a trip next year. I hope the information proves useful to you all.

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Replies: 38
By:
JOCI Club
When: 12 Nov 12 08:27
Cheers Howdi.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 12 Nov 12 08:48
Well done H. I was supposed to be going to this but after e-mailing Craig Staddon and receiving an acknowledgement, I never had anything further - no e-mail regarding arrangements, no ticket in the post......nothing! Forgot all about it.
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 09:18
you must have been off the email list ff . Good night all in all.
By:
shockster
When: 12 Nov 12 09:37
Cheers H.  thanks for the update.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 12 Nov 12 10:14
Howdi, thanks for taking the time. Much appreciated. I've had 3 Ante Post Cheltenham bets to date - Long Run, Grandouet and Captain Conan. Good to hear they are all getting positive PR ! .......or is that the kiss of death !
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 10:47
PlainThey mentioned your ante post bets Hayling. They said Tom Segal and you were on and as such you had moved markets
By:
strontium
When: 12 Nov 12 11:12
Cheers Howdi - good stuff.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 12 Nov 12 12:05
Clearly based on my potential rather than track record then..... Wink
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 15:23
Good stuff Hayley
By:
Glossy
When: 12 Nov 12 18:35
Cheers Howdi. Had it pencilled in to go to but totally slipped my mind. Certainly agree on the big shouts for Clondaw Kaempfer and Bold Sir Brian. Will also be interesting to see how the Bolster is campaigned.
By:
Fabulous
When: 12 Nov 12 18:38
Cheers for the update Howdi.
By:
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
When: 12 Nov 12 18:58
Cheers Howdi .... Cracking that and good to hear the GMOOH news ....my lad looked after Knight Pass when @ Warren Greatrex's and they thought the world of it but llost the plat after boxing day last year ...has run 4 times @ cheltenham though and never been seen ...... Iv got a race in mind that i think Pipe may go for its entered just waiting for prices to appear ....
Can you Guess ?
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 12 Nov 12 19:03
Mottershead tips up an even money shot for a race 6 months away.

Is he for real?
By:
Glossy
When: 12 Nov 12 19:06
Surely not the Xmas Hurdle St Nic?
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 19:09
Mr Eboue






12 Nov 12 19:03
Joined:


15 Sep 09
| Topic/replies: 19,687 | Blogger: Mr Eboue's blog



Mottershead tips up an even money shot for a race 6 months away.

Is he for real?

his tip not mine more respect5 required Love
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 12 Nov 12 19:11
He should be shot Howdi.

Was there a good turnout there?
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 19:13
tbf fair he made the point he should be 4-7 so on that basis i see his point.

I would say about 500 Eboube good night.

although for the 8th year in a row i won feck all with the raffle.
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 12 Nov 12 19:14
I've never won anything in a raffle. Ever.

It's a stitch up.
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 19:20
I was one ticket out in the raffle and had i not gone for a pi55 what could have been.

Prize was a day playing golf with Fitzy though so im glad i lost Grin
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 20:02
Ive been looking at the form on Broadbackbob and must say he does stand out at 33-1 beat Cinders n ashes last year - why is he 33s.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Nov 12 20:11
^^ He was a strong fancy for the Neptune last year, but unfortunately picked up a knock when second to Battonier on trails day (cost me a small fortune in a double with Pearl Swan Sad).

I'd see him more of a Jewson horse though than an RSA one, but 33's is big if going down that route.
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 20:12
cheers chief he went under my radar over the summer.
By:
strontium
When: 12 Nov 12 20:48
I think his P2P form wasn't great was it? 33/1 doesn't seem too out of whack for a horse who struggled in P2Ps and has not jumped a regulation fence in public.

Very interesting news about Knight Pass. Also interesting to see Symonds tip FR for the King George - didn't he used to be Long Run's work rider?
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Nov 12 21:08
yes stronium he did
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Nov 12 07:48
He also told me that Oscar W would beat Big Bucks!!

Hes a character that Tom,nice bloke to talk too,and very enthusiastic,but can get a bit carried away.

Mind you FR could stay 3m after his last performance,something i thought i would never say about him to be honest,and if he does hes the one to beat.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 13 Nov 12 11:21
Cheers Howdi,Hope you had a great evening...
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 11:22
was good pal i love this sort of thing.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 13 Nov 12 12:41
I really should get myself to one before the Festival,End up spending the Monday night drinking and discussing amongst ourselves and there is one about 5 miles away from the hotel i stay in ffs...
Gutted that Snake Eyes is starting to get talked up as have been chipping away at him for the Supreme and was hoping he'd go well under the radar until nearer the time,Just hope they didn't mean he'll go for the Bumper race at Newbury..Form of his Punchestown race looks strong atm and he really should have won it hard held imo(Don't like to knock jockeys as they do a job i wouldn't have the bottle for but she royally ballsed it up)
Best of luck for the open meeting..
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 16:26
come with me to the one at the Centaur on the Sunday night. I'll even throw in a pint!!!
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 13 Nov 12 18:00
...from the balcony!
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 18:04
thank you Roger Cry
By:
SN02
When: 13 Nov 12 18:38
Thanks Howdi - enjoyed the read
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 19:10
mypleasure snot i mean sno2
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 14 Nov 12 10:22
Broadbackbob doesn't strike me as the dour staying type needed for the RSA, I can see him heading for the Jewson.....if of course he takes to fences
By:
fats waller
When: 14 Nov 12 18:42
In defence of Lee he said he tipped BB as Ladcrooks were sponsoring the event and offering inflated odds for the panels selections.

It was a good night and I hope they run it again. I can recommend the pre festival night too to really get the juices flowing before the best week of the year.
By:
Howdi
When: 14 Nov 12 20:55
yes agree fats sunday before the festivala cracker.

Personally I think Lee is great value, speaks very well.
By:
fats waller
When: 14 Nov 12 21:51
I can see why the PR man didn't want to sit next to him on the empty chair - quite a wild gesticulater with his arms. He looked a bit like a marionette the way his limbs were flailing.
By:
cufcno1
When: 15 Nov 12 00:01
snake eyes very intresting,he should have bet clondaw kaemper in his bumper,jockey just went too early,it will be in the green and gold colours come cheltenham,supreme horse ?
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