Who wins the Paddy Power Gentlemen?

Who do you think I am, Mystic Meg!?

The two I like probably won't be entered as they are still recovering from injury - Roudoudou Ville and Salut Flo.

Once I know the entries, I'll gladly put the mockers on one or two of those entered!

Notus De La Tour for me Howdi, granted he runs.

Dependant on the grey beast though I assume...

grey beast?

Grands cru i imagine bud ...

yeh,i thought he might have meant him - not sure where the beast part comes from,if it is GC he means.

his forms nothing special that i can see,and rubbish last time i saw him.

Sorry budd, it is indeed GC that I was referring to. The 'beast' mention is a nickname that has merely developed over time as he was often the best grey at a given meeting, although it is not meant in a totally flattering way as I, like yourself, am not a huge fan of his. His price for the PPGC is something that I shall certainly not be snapping up, although will be interesting to se if he can bounce back - which seems to be expected.

Any early fancies from yourself budd?

no worries mate,hes somewhat overhyped by some i feel for what hes achieved,but as you say its interesting to see how he does when we see him this season.

To be honest its too early for me to have a fancy,i shall wait till i see entries.

I think Notus De La Tour is well handicapped myself.

festivalfanatic






29 Oct 12 22:39
Joined:


20 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 571 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog



Who do you think I am, Mystic Meg!?

The two I like probably won't be entered as they are still recovering from injury - Roudoudou Ville and Salut Flo.

Once I know the entries, I'll gladly put the mockers on one or two of those entered!

More confidence needed FF you know your stuff. I'm following you over a cliff this season and I need better than 'I'll pu the mockers on some'

think this thread is somewhat premature myself!!
be ok when we actually know whats likely to run though

sorry howdi

maybe it needs to be on the right part of the forum as well

cheltenham 2013??

sorry again howdi

same as yer Hennessey thread,belongs on Antepost forum.

SORT IT OUT HOWDI!!!

Oh,and sorry howdi.

alcohol and the forum buddeliea not a good mix sort yourself out lad

too late for that my friend!

That Kempton race Grand Crus won, I would say the form is very special if you look at the races the next two horses went on to win. Even the well beaten 4th and the horses that pulled up have won decent races since. He did disappoint in his last race but he was going well before he blew up. I think this drop back in trip will suit.

notus de la tour each way 25s in t,shops ,or 28 a win and 8 a place on here!

I think Grands Crus is the most likely winner but an unbackable price.

At the prices, Solix is interesting based on his run in the Dipper and Quantitativeeasing because of his excellent C&D form. Champion Court and Edgardo Sol are also eyecatchers, but is either likely to run?

Of the horses at the head of the betting, I like Champion Court. Jewson form looks rock solid and For Non Stop will have to give him 7lbs, if he runs. I would urge caution though about prior season novices making their seasonal debut in an ultra competitive race like this, particularly when they are carrying 11 stones plus. Long Run failed to win off 155 I seem to recall then went on to win the King George and the Gold Cup. There will be some experienced handicappers loitering towards the foot of the weights whose connections will want a true run race with no mercy shown.

^^ great post - surely FF is a candidate for formulite of the year 6/4 at best with me.

Flattery gets you everywhere H but you're still not getting a commissio on winning bets!!

we haven't had any yet sir

Don't bother me with detail!!

Walkon/Champion Court/For Non Stop for me.

Will probably end up backing 2 of the 3. Can't wait. Tickets booked.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Champion Court is not likely to riun but may have him mixed up with something else

On his novice form Ghizao would have an outstanding chance, but would have wanted him to be dropped slightly more for almost a year off.  Last year was a complete no show from him, so it is a high risk bet, but his slamming of Captain Chris twice and unlucky 2 length second to Finians at Aintree show he can be a top animal.  He also won easily first time out in November during his novice season.

I assume Nicholls has given him a breathing op or something, and at 25/1 he'd by my very tentitive pick in a race I always do rubbish in

Does he properly get the trip in this company?

Seems like each time he's tried a trip of 2.5 miles he's been beaten wide margin (three attempts, all at Cheltenham, and beaten a total of 100+ lengths in those three races). Not the kind of profile I'd be looking at if I wanted to include the winner.

Personally hope Grands Crus goes to Haydock, where he'd likely be a bigger price and more likely winner as most people are continuing to stick to the belief that he doesn't get three miles very soundly. He does, and will show it this year. That trip on soft ground at Haydock will be perfect for him and he'll dot up if they unleash him there.

Should they be tempted by his mark and a big prize in the PP, he does look the obvious one to me. Although it's very hard to win a race like this off that mark, he might conceivably be off almost 11st if Poquelin was to run, and that would not be insurmountable by any means.

Would need a lot to go right in terms of higher-rated horses dropping out so that he's not way out of the handicap, but I quite liked the return of Ihavingotascoobydo. Pretty progressive, good course form, and should come on massively for his first run since a major op. Whether he's quite good enough is the issue, but if he was in the handicap I'd expect him to run a big race. I think he has a good handicap in him this season.

"unleash"

Tomdeane. Poquelin down to run in the United house gold cup at Ascot saturday.  jocked up as well! watch those bets!

If poquelin runs Saturday big chance the handicapper drops him a couple of pound which means a change in the weights. Think Nicholls is mad if he goes for the PP surely just making the job easier for GC!

Also making the job easier for some of his own presumably? Poquelin would take a few pounds off Al Ferof for example.

I see in today's RP Champion Court is more likley to run in this than he was having had a small setback, but is not a certainty. He would interest me for sure if lining up on the day.

A few seem to be ignoring Grand Crus RSA performance

wise or dangerous?? im with the latter myself.

Especially at 3/1!!

Mind you imo its his distance.

Fancy Hunt Ball for this. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets smashed in.

Grands Crus seems like he might be the most divisive horse in the game at the moment.

I am fully on his side but understand why people are questioning him, The RSA was disappointing but his Feltham win was up there with the best novice chase performances I have seen.

I think it's easy to forgive a bad run because all good horses can have bad days, but average horses tend not to have great ones. He's already shown on more than one occasion that he could be a top-notcher.

I can't be playing here until the 5 day decs have been made at the earliest. Will then look at those at the bottom/just out of the handicap - does the trainer of the topweight have one who will benefit most either by standing their ground, or coming out and the weights going up. PFN could easily play games with Poquelin.

couldn't he just ff

Having just had a persue, Criqtonic (current mark 133) is one who would fit the bill nicely. Mind you, Andy Stewart might want Poquelin to run, in which case Criqtonic would either struggle to get in or be well out of the handicap!

Poquelin has run in the last 3 renewals.

I believe Criqtonic is entered at Ascot this Saturday.

Might be trying to get his rating up if Poquelin is to run!

Just guesswork with criqtonic thhough isn't it?

GCW

If you had to bet your life on the outcome of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, then you probably wouldn't live very long. As a betting proposition, i'll probably leave it alone. My observations as you rightly say are guesswork but I try to look beyond the bare facts of the form for these kind of races. On what paper appears the best handicapped horse rarely wins.

Yeah I agree. Plenty of horses are entered in races with their true abilities unknown, especially early season. Being able to spot where a trainer sends his better horses or handicap "plots" can be just as valuable as reading form.

My shortlist consists of:

Al Ferof
Champion Court
Grands Crus
Menorah
Quantitativeeasing

Champion Court not a certain runner but would merit respect if showing up as he seems a consistent type and looks like he'll be suited by this trip around Cheltenham. Al Ferof is more about untapped potential, but might have  abit too much to carry. Grands Crus could be very well in off this mark, but then again many thought that about Long Run a couple of seasons ago. Menorah entered in Haldon Gold Cup, so unsure what the plans are regarding that one. Quantitativeeasing ticks all the right boxes, course & distance form, but has to bounce back to best to win.

It's all a bit murky at present but will hopefully beacome a little clearer over the next week.

Poquelin is declared at Ascot tomorrow.

Joci - simialr list to mine, though I don't have Menorah and I do have Solix and Edgardo Sol. ES, Al Ferof and Champion Court are all doubtful runners though.

I'll throw in Hunt Ball too. Mightily impressed by his progression last season, and impressive off top weight over near enough course and distance at the Festival in March. Could still be on the upgrade. The only reason he didn't make the top 5 originally was he'd had one too many chase starts according to the trends. If you can look beyond that, then he'd have a very strong claim.

so that's the first six covered in the betting then Joci lad

Well, race normally won by horse in first 4 in the betting, so covering my bases Howdi.

The initial shortlist was compiled based on the trends, so that's where I'll be looking for the winner, but expect a few non runners in there.

jOCI

cHUCK IN THE SEVENTH AND EIGHTH IN THE BETTING & THEN ANNOUNCE ITS YOUR NAP.

Grands Crus starting to look attractively handicapped off 158 (think thats right) form of the Feltham starting to look nearer the 170 imo.

Sil Con - Hosed the Charlie Hall.
Bobs Worth - RSA

I think 2.5 miles will be ideal for him could be a snip the way form holding up.

True, but arguably an unbackable price in such a competetive handicap?

Joci - I really can't make up my mind about Hunt Ball. He improved so much last season who knows where it will end (or ended). He could have been found out at Aintree but on the other hand he raced so much that could just reflect the end of a long season. I'm not overly impressed by the form of his Festival win which has looked weak, although he did it very well. He must be a contender in the PP for his C&D form and potential improvement, but again the price is unattractive. I also find it hard to believe he's better than Grands Crus and they have similar marks - but that may be just prejudice. The other things that puzzles me about HB is how on earth did he get beaten off 109ish in mid-season? I guess if you do fancy him now is the time to bet - he's such a hype horse he may be a shortish 2nd favourite on the day.

great point about 109 defeat doesn't add up that

That defeat was blamed on the heavy ground according to the trainer.

Will Grand Crus be at peak fitness FTO? Would be my only concern before lumping on.

Ben - OK, but you'd expect a 160 quality horse to win a low grade handicap off 109 if it had to swim.

GCW - he was electric in his first run last season. Pipe won't run him half cooked in the Paddy Power. If they want to give him a run at less than full fitness with other targets in mind I think they'll go the betfair route.

JOCI

sent you a PM mate ta

This is the pipes meeting and the pipes race, with the big question mark hanging over the horse with regards to the gold cup, this race becomes a major target for the season, you suspect that the stable think that he's very well handicapped off 158 and i can't believe that they'd want to let slip the chance to win the PP in particular off that mark, he's a buzzy horse and first time up over 2.5 is right up his street i would have thought.

Nous De La Tour

I suspect NJH is going to annexe this race, I am waiting for 5 day decs before getting involved

judorick 05 Nov 12 10:02 
JOCI

sent you a PM mate ta

Just saw it and responded.

I have finally found my selection, Al Ferof.

I always look at this race and try to find a horse that could run in the King George or the Gold Cup in the future and Al ferof is entered in the KG.

Al Ferof has course form and won the supreme novice at the festival beating some good horses in the process and then finished 4th in the arkle after making a terrible mistake, he was jumping very well up to that mistake and still managed to jump the rest of fences well.

As a novice he ran in the Victor Chandler chase, on first impression it didnt seem that good but with Finian's Rainbow going onto win the champion chase and then at aintree the form is very strong and for a novice it is well above average.

I think we can forgive AL Ferof's run at aintree after a long season.

in my opinion its the sommersby race that has fecked his mark and such he has too much weight, without it he may be on a winable mark.

Sonko-watched that Arkle again earlier, and he was beaten too far for it to have just been that mistake.

I just think he's a solid yardstick without being anything special. Having said that, you arguably have to respect anything that has winning form around Cheltenham, and at the Festival, so wouldn't rule him out completely.

I will rule him out completely because:-

he is slow
all of the last 10 winners had won a chase at 2 miles 4 furlongs at least, he hasn't
Paul Nicholls has an abysmal record in the race
he is very slow and badly handicapped

The more and more I look at this race I just can't see beyond Grand Crus. I like Walkon but is too short for me now - I'd be wanting 12's on his chances.

Of the others, only Divers and maybe Forpadydeplasterer interest me at the prices.

Im not sure he is slow, i have watched the arkle a few times today and he was in contention in the arkle until that mistake where he landed on the fence, so i can forgive him that.

He is high in the weights but there are some average horses in the field.

Just because nicholls has not won the race doesnt mean his record is poor, 4th in 2011, 5th in 2010 and 2nd in 2009. His problem is that he runs jis horse on merit more than other trainers.

Im pretty sure he will improve over this trip and at 8/1 and with a clear round he will go close.

I basically agree with you Glossy, though I may have a little on Nadiya de la Vega on the day if she looks well.

That was the other one I was going to mention stront, mainly on the basis that at 6 it's still young enough to improve upon its win last month - big step up in class though.

yes I am in the 'struggling to get the fav beat, but don't want to back it' camp too

have not had a bet but will be cheering on Walkon for Harry who got on at good odds

I can't believe anybody would rule out a horse because it was trained by Paul Nicholls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well that was only to support my main thesis which is that the horse is slow

but Nicholls has never won the race despite having run several that went off as strong favs

a

so you don't pay attention to trainers records when punting then? or is it only that Nicholls is a powerful trainer that we should ignore his record in the race?

I think it's worth noting if a stable has a particularly good record in a race (e.g. you'd take a second look at whatever Pipe runs in this). You can also take race record as a negative from a small-medium yard. However the fact Nicholls hasn't won this is far more likely to be a statistical abberation than any real failing. He hadn't won the National or Champion Hurdle either 8 months ago, and his horses win decent handicaps all over the place at this stage of the season (if not the Festival when they do tend to be poorly handicapped imo).

of course I do but this is Paul Nicholls - lies, damm lies and statistics.

Bit like saying saying your best looking mate never pulls on a friday when he has shagg ed four times as many birds as you - it can't keep happening if he's better looking than the rest of you....if you know what I mean

and Granit Jack was hosing up when he was tragically killed. (and he was good looking)

Judo

I know you have been totally consistent about AF and his inability to post quick times over fences. However, he was 2nd favourite for the Arkle and has a line of form through FNS and Cue Card that would indicate that he is smart. I fancied Cue Card for this race off 157?, so it would be illogical for me to dismiss AF off 159?

I'll be watching, not playing.

If Al Ferof can run like he did at the beginning of last year then he has a huge chance.  I too thought he was too high in the weights, but as Festivalfanatic has said, his mark now does look workable after FNS and Cue Card's performances.

However, if he runs like he did at Cheltenham or Aintree then I don't think he has much of a chance as he very much had a season of two halves.

I personally wouldn't have started him in a big handicap, but Nicholls knows a lot more than me.  To me it looks like they need to get AF's confidence back, and a nice little eye opener to the season would have suited.

Nicholls record in the PP is OK anyway. Poquelin was only beaten by a mudlark in unfavourable conditions a couple of years ago.

He was running a big race at Cheltenham chief,and that mistake would have prevented ANY horse from winning.

As for him being slow,simply laughable.
He won what turned out to be a real good supreme hurdle,and has since won good 2m chases.
FNS has come out and ran well.He werent far behind the top 2milers in his prep race for the Arkle.
Hes made one mistake in his chasing career,ending all chance of winning,and that race should not be where he is judged,anyone that does is shortsighted and extremely harsh.
Aintree as ive said many times could be the Aintree after Chelt factor,or the mistake has left a mark.
We shall find out soon.
If hes ok i expect him to be contesting the top races over 2and half to 3 plus.

There was me thinking I had this race down to 4 but the horse Quantitativeeasing keeps creeping back into my head today.  I realise he's carrying enough weight but that course record is superb, goes well fresh and is very attractive at 20/1. Anyone know whether McCoy will be on this or NDLV?

I expect Grands Crus to win this but think the one that is slipping under the radar of most people (some have mentioned him on here) is Divers.

If the ground is decent he can play a major role, running off the lowest mark for some time and with Timmy Murphy the perfect partner. He needs to be waited with and not hassled throughout the race as his jumping usually takes time to come together and he can hit a flat spot. With a pilot that knows exactly how to ride like that, and how to ride Cheltenham, he looks way too big at 16s. I's be surprised if he's out of the first four.

I'm backing Divers e/w on decent ground or Quanti e/w if it comes up soft. Just hope prices don't contract too much before the day.

I hate these horses that go 00F0PP0001 with the 1 in a top race. It makes a mockery of the sport. I'm happy not to back them and if they pop up so be it.

I know what you mean but this one (horse and trainer) is easier to spot than some of the real p**stakers. Always disappoints massively first time out but when fit he always runs well in these races on decent ground. Could well have won this 12 months ago on better ground and racing off this 6lb lower mark.

walkon wont be far away with that weight,right profile just hope his jumping holds together

Well on the face of that I have to say it looks like I've got it wrong with Grands Crus. Very similar performance to the RSA. Budd I know you're a big fan of Al Ferof he did you proud there travelled brilliantly.

Cracking performance.  He travelled so much better than anything else, and pinged the last in horrible ground.

I hope his biggest fan (we all know who he is) backed him today.

If Grands Crus had something to prove beforehand, he definitely does now.

Onwards and upwards for this years second season chasers - looks as good a crop as we've seen for a while

Yeah I got it totally wrong with Grand Crus, got the race wrong altogether in fact. I guess the fav is worth another go when back on better ground but guess he'll be under priced.

GCW, I was with you with QE & POQ, couldn't have got it more wrong myself

Any thoughts on that Judorick?

Just so good to see a horse that finished the season like he did,come out the following season and show hes much better than that,and it was so wrong for people to judge him by that,in particular the Arkle.

Just a small wager lads,but for me it was really all about watching him and seeing how he ran.

Good,was'nt he.

What a brilliant round of jumping, that jump 4 out was breathtaking

well done ibrahim hope you had enough on . i am biased but  after bwinning such a competetive race off that mark he must have a shot at the gold cup ,the course is made for him and he should improve a good few pounds for that ,plus the extra distance of the gold cup should hold no fears and he is without doubt a genuine contender who jumps travels and battles ,what more can you ask for .

howdi hits the crossbar my fav horse or one of them beats him

Great effort from AF in horrible ground....wouldn't have made carrying a big weight any easier. That Lomg Run failed to win this race off a lower mark just emphasises waht a good effort it was. Collateral novice chase form for AF, Cue Card, FNS shows just how smart Sprinter Sacre really is.