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strontium
20 Oct 12 23:48
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 05
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I really enjoyed the excellent discussion in a similar thread last year. Then it was "best horse" - strictly that would be Sprinter Sacre/Sizing Europe/Kauto Star/Bick Buck's/etc many weekends. I thought this time we might talk about the most interesting, or promising, horse we saw run.

I know it's only Saturday night, but I'm going to start with The New One. Won the Class 2, 21 f novice hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. Beat the promising Village Vic by 3 l giving 5 lb with the other finishers (including 5 other hurdle winners) 20+ l back in a heap.  Would have won at least a couple of lengths more had he not clipped the final hurdle. He hurdled a bit novicey - but could improve as this was only his second hurdle start (now 2 from 2). The horse came 6th in the Champion Bumper and won the Aintree Grade 2 bumper so probably has a bit of pace.

Not exactly a dark horse, but certainly one to watch this season imo and interesting for the Neptune.

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Replies: 131
By:
Howdi
When: 21 Oct 12 01:40
frankel could be useful.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 21 Oct 12 09:24
Agree with your comments about The New One stront. Very strong form for this stage of the season. Our Vinnie was a bit unlucky yesterday. If he had jumped either of the last 2 hurdles well, or if the ground had been slower, he would have won. Major gamble gone down the pan but I expect them to recoup it soon. Southfield Theatre looks a nice horse and Paul Nicholls made very encouraging noises about him in his column on here yesterday.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 21 Oct 12 10:02
Didn't get chance to watch the racing yesterday, how did Third Intention look? Could he be a slow burner for the Arkle?
By:
liam the lips
When: 21 Oct 12 11:09
I backed Our Vinnie but although he missed the last i didnt feel he was unlucky as the winner was just dossing and would have found more. Bradley was the most interesting horse i saw there this weekend. Plenty of improvement off his mark, the 3.5 miler at the Nov meeting being the obv next step. Aintree beckons me thinks Happy
By:
strontium
When: 21 Oct 12 12:09
Bluebird - he got beaten in a race he looked all over the winner. He jumped OK for the most part but got outstayed up the hill having been clear. Unfortunately he got beaten by a horse who is OK but probably no more.  It was his first chase so he might improve for the experience and also possibly for the run - but it didn't scream Arkle contender. So if he is, he's a very slow burner!

Howdi - very droll. I quite fancy it for the Supreme.
By:
shockster
When: 21 Oct 12 12:22
I totally agree about BRADLEY and looks a real strong stayer and will def keep an eye on him. Thought Our Vinnie was unlucky and I would back to reverse the placings.  Third Intention and His Excellency I believe will be below top class and could end up at the right end of the handicap for the Grand Annual at the festival, both jumped well I thought.  The New One looks pretty special to me, but no AP on novice hurdlers after last year.  It's great to see the season coming alive and would love Rite of Passage to go hurdling again.
By:
cunningplan
When: 21 Oct 12 16:59
that winner in the 3 mile novice on fri for ruby and nicholls looked useful
By:
Glossy
When: 21 Oct 12 18:04
I was very impressed with the manner of Dodging Bullets' win yesterday. Probably needed the run but never looked in danger and quickened very nicely when asked. Will be interesting to see if this can be repeated in hotter company. 

There was a lot to like about His Excellency's win and I don't necessarily think he will head towards the handicaps. He looks a less than straightforward type but so was Tidal Bay. I have a feeling that the defeat of Third Intention may turn out to represent quite decent form in a few months time.   

The most impressive horse for me though was According To Trev in the first yesterday. Looks a very genuine type - a classic Twiston-Davies sort of horse. Whilst he only just hung on to win, he battled on gamely when under pressure a couple of times and that's a quality I love to see in the horse - just as much as the class and accurate jumping. Definitely one I will watch out for.
By:
flushgordon1
When: 21 Oct 12 18:19
sire collonges but empiracle was the most interesting of the week.
By:
shockster
When: 21 Oct 12 18:25
Well Glossy you and I certainly see things differently.Happy

Sire de Grugy was entitled to win his novice chase today, but did so very easily.  Badly needed run first time up last season so will be keen to keep him on my side this season.  Live Arkle contender in my book.  Looks built to be a chaser.
By:
Glossy
When: 21 Oct 12 18:52
Yep - Sire De Grugy very impressive today. Looked a natural.
By:
strontium
When: 21 Oct 12 19:11
Glossy, David Pipe was very downbeat about His Excellency in interview after the race yesterday. Said the horse had been bought to be fun for the owners and would run in novice chases, handicap chases, hurdles and on the flat. He certainly didn't sound like he thinks it's a top class horse.

Your thoughts about Dodging Bullets are very interesting - I saw his race totally differently Grin
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 21 Oct 12 19:47
Warning-Do not trust that old rogue His Excellency!!
He'll spit the dummy out whenever he feels like it.
By:
Glossy
When: 21 Oct 12 19:53
Fair one stront, we'll have to see how H.E. Perhaps the penny has dropped with it?

I take it you weren't impressed with Dodging Bullets then? I know the race wasn't of a particularly good standard but I thought he did all that was asked of him, even though fresh. Of course we won't know what he is until he's seen up other company.
By:
strontium
When: 21 Oct 12 20:08
Glossy, I wasn't too impressed with DB. I thought he struggled to beat a couple of ordinary horses. He had to be niggled several times through the race to keep up/catch up and had to be driven out to win. He didn't pick up well at any stage. He looks to me like he might also be a bit of a character. That said, I doubt he was fully fit yesterday and I believe he's had a breathing op so he could come on a fair bit for the run. He's also only 4. I'm not writing him off but the bare form yesterday doesn't look too good. It will be interesting to see whether he contests top races before the spring or whether they try to give him a few easy races at Taunton/Exter/Wincanton.
By:
strontium
When: 21 Oct 12 20:09
PS Nicholls implied he doesn't take his racing too well so we may not see him often this season - he suggested next time might be in around 6 weeks.
By:
duffy
When: 21 Oct 12 21:09
Fox Appeal is a strong traveller with an engine (cliche) made up ground well from the back despite his continued shoddy jumping, if they can make progress on that front he'll be a possible pertemps horse.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 21 Oct 12 21:40
Was fortunate enough to be at Ascot yesterday primarily to see Frankel's final race so I will say Rite of Passage who, if staying sound, might give Bug Bucks' something to think about.

Have n't seen GMOOH's race at Kempton yet but understand he could also be aimed at World Hurdle so might be some interesting opposition for the mighty Big Bucks' this season.
By:
Glossy
When: 21 Oct 12 21:49
I'd love to see GMOOH given a chance in the World Hurdle. He's earned it.
By:
strontium
When: 21 Oct 12 22:36
Surely GMOOH isn't good enough to win a World Hurdle. If BB has declined enough for GMOOH to beat him something else will win the race.
By:
Glossy
When: 21 Oct 12 22:51
He may not be good enough to win but is quite capable of running into a place IMO. I'd prefer that to going off at top weight again in the Coral Cup with the likelihood of getting beat by one or more that have been 'craftily' campaigned through the season.

If BB has declined and is to be beaten then I can't think of many staying hurdlers with his record who will have the WH as their target this year - only VLV springs to mind. If not one of those 2, then it would need to be a massive improver!
By:
Howdi
When: 21 Oct 12 22:54
good horse imo
By:
duffy
When: 22 Oct 12 00:39
vlv was flattered, he sat out the back while others went at it up front, picked up the pieces.
By:
strontium
When: 22 Oct 12 10:48
Glossy, fair enough. I'd be a touch concerned that GMOOH may not stay - he's never run over 21f I think and the World Hurdle is an extreme test of stamina (as we saw with classy 2 1/2 milers like Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars not seeing it out). As for him running off top weight in the Coral Cup, it's very likely his connections will have 2 or 3 of those craftily campaigned types running against him!

It's also worth saying that, althugh the World Hurdle is seen as some sort of poor relation, over the last 10 years it's been won by excellent horses - which has not always been the case with the Champion Hurdle.

Is Big Bucks in decline is an interesting question. He is 9 rising 10, he's by Cadoudal... Beating VLV by 2 lengths with some urging is not, on paper, a great performance. I love the horse, I'd never back against him, I think he's been the best NH horse in training over the last 2 seasons and he's a Frankel of the jumps. He's incredibly difficult to assess accurately because just does enough and always seems to have so much in hand. But I'm starting to wonder if he is on the way down now - it happens to them all.
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Oct 12 17:19
I wouldn't worry about Bucks only winning by 2 lengths. If he raced me he'd only just do enough (think he's beat me 1.5 l) Excited
By:
wellchief
When: 22 Oct 12 19:07
It's also worth saying that, althugh the World Hurdle is seen as some sort of poor relation, over the last 10 years it's been won by excellent horses - which has not always been the case with the Champion Hurdle

That's very true.  I think then problem with the World Hurdle is the lack of good novices that graduate from the Albert Bartlett and then stay over staying hurdle trips.  If the World Hurdle is to improve in strength in depth, I think the Albert Bartlett needs to be a better feeder race.

If you look at the past winners of Black Jack Ketchum, Witchita Lineman, Nenaphur Collonges, Weapons Amnesty, Berties Dream, and Bobs Worth: none of these stayed over hurdles over staying trips and succeeded (BJK definitely had the ability though) .  Obviously, there are 2 RSA winners in there, but it terms of the Albert Bartlett bringing through new fresh talent in the staying hurdles division, it's quite poor.

The Supreme / Triumph / Neptune are usually awash with fresh young talent for the Champion, where there's always a lack of that in the AB.  When was the last time an Albert Bartlett horse was the fancied for the World?
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Oct 12 19:13
^^^ Good post.
By:
duffy
When: 23 Oct 12 14:10
It's because the staying hurdle as such is not a target for an end product, not to put too blunt a point on it , it is for horses that don't have another home, failed chasers, too small to go chasing etc....albert bartlett is pretty much a feeder race for the rsa.!
By:
duffy
When: 23 Oct 12 14:18
I mean in recent years you've had time for rupert who ran BB close but even that was a stepping stone to chasing, and trumping that you had Iris's gift who it for heavens sake!! but even that was a stepping stone to bigger and better things.....and on top of that we have the mighty BB to enjoy year on year, and guess what, we all want him chasing!!! that's just the way it is, it is a poor relation.
By:
duffy
When: 23 Oct 12 14:18
^
who won it
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 23 Oct 12 14:42
It wasnt the weekend, but I'm putting Waaheb in today.

Decent little race, jumped a bit novicey early on, but pulverised them in the last furlong. This horse just has an unbelievable engine. I think he will go to the very top.
By:
duffy
When: 23 Oct 12 14:58
I thought that that performance had that bit of something special about it too.Happy
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 23 Oct 12 15:03
Especially after such a lay off duffy.

I used to be a part owner in Cash & Go, and I'll never forget how impressive he was at Limerick in his bumper. Just p1ssed over us and the whole field. I'm hugely taken with the horse. I remember thinking we could beat him pre-race as well. Must have been the Guinness Laugh
By:
Colldogg
When: 24 Oct 12 02:04
The two obvious ones are The New One and Sire Collonges.

The New one looks very good at the moment for The Albert Bartlet/Neptune at the minute. He needs to keep improving though and I don't think I'd take him yet at the prices for Cheltenham.

Sire Collonges I was very impressed with. He looked a natural chaser and jumped very well (apart from Ruby nearly getting unseated 2 out). He looks very good for the RSA and should continue to improve over fences. Has a very good trainer to school him over trainers and he's a very impressive 3mile chaser for the future. I know the form of his race Friday wasn't the strongest but I'm sure he has much more to offer and improvment in him.

Have to agree with the people who was not impressed by Dodging Bullets too. He did not look like he had much in hand and was getting 8lbs off his only real rival. Dodging Bullets is not a horse I will be following or looking out for with any great enthusiam this season when he comes out again against better horses.
By:
shockster
When: 24 Oct 12 09:06
Court Minstrel really needs a mention.  Seems to have been missed by most, but was a smart first Hurdle race.
By:
strontium
When: 24 Oct 12 11:03
The New One is likely to race next in the 2 1/2 m nov hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 24 Oct 12 12:42
Court Minstrel was a very impressive winner, suprised to see no Supreme quotes afterwards
By:
Glossy
When: 24 Oct 12 19:05
I realise that the weekend is long gone but was quite taken by Houblon Des Obeaux in his first spin over fences today. He's been a big favourite of mine for a while. Didn't beat a great deal but looked neat and tidy in his jumping and retains the ability to run on late into the race to win by 11 lengths. He will come up against better I'm sure but with his decent record at Cheltenham, could be an interesting early one for the RSA; a race that seems to favour more dour, less flashy horses in recent years.
By:
wellchief
When: 24 Oct 12 19:12
I think a few people have been a bit unfair on Dodging Bullets to be honest.

He was really green early on, and then just ran a little lazily in the mid part of the race.  He was back on the bridle turning for home, and found plenty every time Ruby asked him a question.  He pinged the last and pulled away going to the line - all a game of opinions but I thought he had quite a bit in hand.

Don't forget that he was still a maiden, and it was the first run of the season (remembering it was at HQ), and we are still very very early into the season.
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