Cheltenham Festival
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25s for a horse never out the first two when he has completed at Cheltenham.
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Last year was surely his chance.
Last years novices look top notch. He#d have to improve a fair bit. Not beyond the realms but I couldnt back him. |
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When he was 40's yes,but i think hes a more realistic price now.
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No; won't be in the first 6
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Give me 6-1 he is
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umm,given his course record and the fact hes finished 2nd in the race and could well improve,i think thats a bold comment.
Yes their are some good novices from last season,but they have still to prove they act on the course and some to prove they stay sufficiently well. None of those apply to TGB,and imo hes a lively EW chance at this stage. |
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and what buddeliea doesn't know ain't worth worrying about (nap)
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I think Mr Eboue is spot on and his current price is about right. He came second last year in what looks a weak renewal (once Kauto was injured and Long Run underperformed). The likes of Sir des Champs, Last Instalment and Flemenstar could be far better than the opposition last year.
I'd add that a horse's first Gold Cup is its best chance to win the race by far. However, he could present a good trading opportunity at some stage. He looks better at Cheltenham than elsewhere so is likely to run a few bad races before the Festival. Then if he lines up on the day money could come for him as last years best placed runner, especially if a few of the principals don't make it for whatever reason. |
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He has raced in 6 chases at Cheltenham and fallen in 3. 50/50 just to get round, although obviously useful when jumping well. Also think it will be harder this year as no soft handicaps for him off new rating. Cotswold Chase end of January will be best target this term.
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Sir des champs and First leiutenant certainly handle the course!
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But they have to prove they stay sufficiently well,Flemenstar has both to prove.They may well do,but their are doubts,and take away the novices and we are left with last years race,plus Bobsworth,whose pretty solid.
All in all,i really think at this stage,with the doubts mentioned,hes a fair e/w bet. |
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Stront i quiet agree that the 1st Gold Cup is the best chance,and i dont really see him winning the race,although as i say he has less to prove right now over the Gold Cup conditions than most.
That could all change as the season goes of course,but if you can get 25's ew right now i would not put anyone off it. |
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Recently there's been some big priced horses placed in the Gold Cup
2012 : The Giant Bolster 50/1 2011 : None - although a nose to WAF @ 25/1 2010 : Mon Mome 50/1 2009 : None 2008 : Neptune Collonges 25/1 2007 : Turpin Green 40/1 A lot of those were long because there was often a very short price fav (Kauto), but it does show a long price one can sometimes make the frame. |
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Turpin Green I was on
Kauto was hosing up and I just wanted to know if Turpin had hung on !!! |
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Budd, it's all about the price and you've said above TGB is a more realsitic price now - which I agree with. He is a fair each way bet as he's proven over C&D (when he stands up).
I take your point that nearly all the novices have something to prove. But I'm perfectly willing to bet that at least one of Sir des Champs, Flemenstar, Grand Crus, Bobs Worth, Last Instalment, First Lieutenant and Long Run will improve enough to beat him. |
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One,maybe 2,i agree thats likely,maybe more-they are a good bunch,and 25 might look a bad bet in time.......but then again,maybe not.Like you say though mate hes a fair ew bet at this stage.
Personally i would have Bobsworth as the most likely to,and if they stay well enough Flemenstar and SDC are potential stars in future Gold Cups.LI i like,but has to come back from setback,and LR i really aint sure about anymore. Grand Crus and FL i dont think are anywhere near winning a Gold Cup. As for his jumping,i think hes improved a lot in that regard,and hes looked pretty good and safe in his last few races. |
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I think the Gold Cup will be between SDC, Flem and perhaps LI - but I was factoring in the chance that I'm wrong about some of the other horses I named
 It would surprise me if LR wins but I wouldn't rule it out. For the purpose of this thread (i.e. considering TGB's chances) my point was that there are a lot of potnetially good second season chasers who could well improve past him (+ the still young and already proven Long Run), so I reckon 25/1 is a realistic price for TGB. |
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I thought last year's Gold Cup was pretty poor standard imo. Long Run never went on from the previous season and Kauto never went a yard. As admirable a horse as Synchronized was he wouldn't have gotten close to Denman/Kauto in their peaks and Long Run of 2011.
Sir Des Champs/First Lieutenant/Bob's Worth/Flemenstar are imo classier beasts than all bar KS/LR at their respective peaks and will prove a much muh bigger test than TGB faced this year. I'll be amazed if he's anywhere near the front three home tbh |
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Thats a fair point FFT,no one is disputing they are classy animals,and should they all turn up in the Gold Cup,i think you are right.
Still dont mean 25 aint a fair e/w price though,cos they may not.Its about the price now, and bearing in mind all the things that can happen between now and March. |
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sir des champs has an awful lot to prove yet imo
in short he hasnt beat a top class horse yet |
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many may improve past him but the gold cup is a unique test and one he has proved.
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Long Run is the interesting one,he looked pretty good when winning the race,but actually,how good was beating the ageing superstars??
Its possible that he is as good as he was when TGB beat him,and if that is so then i see TGB beating him again,certainly i saw no excuses for LR last March. To be honest i find Long Run difficult to assess,so i may be way off here. |