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Howdi
08 Oct 12 13:01
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Date Joined: 13 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 29,355 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
Bobs Worth will start fav won't he off his mark which is only 150 something........any early picks??

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Replies: 150
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 13:24
160.

I'd love to see Weapons Amnesty make his come back in this. OR is 152 but may well get in off 146 after a couple of years off. They'll probably give him a gentler come back race though.

Pacha du Polder (150) is being aimed at this I think and could be a rapid improver this season. Pepitte Rose (144) was very impressive round Newbury a couple of times last season but I've no idea if this is on her radar.

I could see Burton Port (166) putting in a big run.

Any thoughts on what's likely to be top weight?
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 13:35
THINK IT COULD BE A BELTER THIS YEAR. (DIDNT BOBBY WORTH WAS OFF 160 THANKS).
By:
shockster
When: 08 Oct 12 16:44
If Burtons Port runs, he'll probably be top weight off 166 I would have thought (last year Neptune Collonges 168).  So a couple of interesting contenders should they turn up at the weights are Diamond Harry if his head is right, big if I know.  But won it off 156 beating Burton Port off levels and now rated 151. The second I'll let you know when I get a price.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 16:48
Wow, Diamond Harry really has plummeted down the handicap. That had passed me by. You're right, if he's up for it 151 is a very juicy mark.
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 16:56
Could Tidal Bay run (166) ?
By:
gutfeeling
When: 08 Oct 12 17:33
Hidden Cyclone..
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 17:47
would it come over?
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 17:55
Nicholls has said Tidal will be entered for the Welsh National and the Grand National is his main target. I suppose they may go for the Hennessey as a prep but they may want to protect/try to lower his mark. The horse also seems to have a marked preference for soft ground.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 08 Oct 12 17:55
Sure hope so Howdi,Shark declared it as his early season target a few weeks ago,Off 142 he'd have a featherweight and i feel he has plenty of improvement to come..The question for me would be how will he handle a big field handicap as he doesn't have much experience of big fields atm..
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 18:01
I'd like to see what mark Quel Esprit would be given - I think he has got a big win him somewhere
By:
Tucho
When: 08 Oct 12 18:08
Agree with Hidden Cyclone. How far.

Trainer John Hanlon reports his exciting prospect to be in "savage" form ahead of a second campaign over fences.

The seven-year-old had just two runs last term, making a winning chasing debut before finishing a close third to Sir Des Champs at Leopardstown in January.

Hanlon then put Hidden Cyclone away with the idea of bringing him back for an ambitious programme that he hopes will culminate in a crack at the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.

"He's been back in for about six weeks doing bits of work and you'll probably see him at the end of October or November," said the County Carlow trainer.

"He's in savage form. He got very strong towards the end of last season and I'm very happy with him.

"We are playing it by ear and something like the Hennessy at Newbury (December 1) might be an aim for us. I would say we might go straight there.

"We won't be 100% for it, but we just want a nice run and hope he will be a Cheltenham horse in March. Hopefully everything goes to plan."
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Oct 12 18:13
Hey Big Spender might be interesting if he's entered and gets in and the ground is on the soft side.

Maybe one to many 'ifs' there - definitely one for the Welsh National.
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 18:48
Other possibles and their current mark

Time for Rupert: 157
Weird Al: 164
Hunt Ball: 157
Silvianaco Conti: 156
Join Together: 151
Quel Esprit: 158
Bensalem (if still in training): 152
Fruity O'Rooney: 145
For Non Stop: 151
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 18:52
Conti must be a danger off 156.
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 18:57
Agree Howdi

He beat Champion Court (154) by 13 lengths and Join Together (154) by 25.

Champion Court is probably better over shorter, but 156 is a good mark for him imo.
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 18:58
Cheers chief. He is one of mine to follow this season. The only doubt is that Aintree form is often 'iffy' due to long season. Both CC & JT had tough races at cheltenham.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 19:09
Is the Hennessey a race you win if "We won't be 100% for it"? It's the most valuable normal handicap of the British season isn't it? That said, HC's got bags of potential and could be very well handicapped.

I'd have to say I wouldn't fancy many of those on WellC's list of possibles except perhaps Fruity.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 08 Oct 12 19:11
i'd imagine The Giant Bolster would be near enough top weight?
if the GC is to be taken at face value and Sync is no longer with us.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 19:15
"Only" rated 164 so probably near top weight but not quite. However, he's always looked rubbish round Newbury when I've seen him there - looks one of those horses who's considerably better at Cheltenham.
By:
Tucho
When: 08 Oct 12 19:22
Is the Hennessey a race you win if "We won't be 100% for it"? It's the most valuable normal handicap of the British season isn't it? That said, HC's got bags of potential and could be very well handicapped.

I want to take his 100% comment with a pinch of salt to be honest. You are completely right, you can't win it if you are not taking it seriously, so what's the point in traveling over, putting him in a brutal race with a big field if you're not there to win. Plenty of easier places to start in Ireland.

I'll say if they come over here they mean business.
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 19:24
I'd only consider backing Conti, Fruity and Quel Esprit (if he was dropped a few pounds from 158) out of that list to be honest Stront.

Just been racking my brain over who might run and most of them in that list are pretty exposed now; ideally I'd want a second season novice but apart from Conti, I can't really think of any that I'd fancy
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 19:32
Surely Quel Espirit had his chance last year in hindsight he would have gone close bearing in mind what he did in the first half of the season.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 19:34
Well - from your list, Join Together is a secon deason chaser on a reasonable mark and looks a Hennessey type, but I'd be disappointed if he's good enough to win it (like Carruthers!). I think Quel Esprit will come on a lot this year but I'd be surprised if there's not something better handicapped in the race.

Tucho - completely fair point. However, it might be a good race to get him big race/big field/traveling experience though, which is the main thing he's lacking with a view to a crack at the Festival in 2013.
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 08 Oct 12 19:35
Didnt Mullins say 3m was the furthest he could go?

Not sure 3m2f on soft ground with a likely racing weight of over eleven stone would be ideal.
By:
shockster
When: 08 Oct 12 19:36
Ace High could be anything and trainer says will be aimed at the staying handicaps.  Beat Duke of Lucca and TeaforThree on his only outing last term.  Has to have recovered from injury but well handicapped on that race with a mark of 142. The 2 he beat have higher marks.  Also Roalco de Farges will probably be a few pounds wrong at the weights, but finished 2nd on his final outing at Sandown in the old Whitbread and won the Novice Handicap easily on this card last season.  Could go well at a price with a 5lb claimer on.
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 19:39
Last year I really wanted Quel Esprit to go for the William Hill on the opening day of the Festival

About 6 weeks before the fesitval he was in the mid 140's, and the William Hill would have been perfect - then he had to go and win the Irish Hennessy and got put up to 160.

I think he is a really good horse though, and if the comes down to the mid 150's, I think he is potentially a lot better than that.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 19:43
I agree, but 158 doesn't look a great mark
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 19:46
Fair point Eboue, it would really stretch his stamina; and he is very unlikely to come over, so I suppose it's irrelevant anyway.

I'd also be surprised if Join Together won; he's 1833 with a different name.
By:
strontium
When: 08 Oct 12 19:54
Laugh Fair enough wellC - but that means the owner loves the race.
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 19:55
^^^^agree with the 1833 point ...very good.
By:
wellchief
When: 08 Oct 12 19:56
Looking through the last five Hennessy's, Mullins has only brought 1 horse over - Snowy Morning (twice).
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 19:59
theres a quiz question i'll have that for my new years quiz!!!!
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 20:00
Who was the mare who was placed in gold cup and Grand National in the 90s and that was her last aseason?
By:
shockster
When: 08 Oct 12 20:02
Dubacilla?
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 20:07
^^^ good work.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 08 Oct 12 20:33
Join Together would be interesting
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Oct 12 20:51
very difficult to find a plausible one thinking outside the box.

Bold Sir Brian perhaps (but a lot to find)

Menorah (unlikely to be stepped up in trip)

Planet of Sound now 2lbs lower than when second last year.

What about Teaforthree? Where else would they go with him before Christmas?

As a spectacle, you would ideally want a progressive second season chaser to make a statement but can't help thinking it might be a similar race to last season.
By:
Glossy
When: 08 Oct 12 21:10
For Non Stop would interest me going off 151. Pretty good record at Newbury but perhaps wouldn't relish being upped in trip. That said, it finished well in several races last season.
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 12 21:14
Rease I think the winner last year will have to be a good un I think it more likely we will have an up and comer taking it.
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