I was thinking more like Fists of Fury off 143. Last run he split SDC and Hidden Cyclone (wouldn't take it literally). Has been over here a few times and would give them an idea of where they stand plus feasibly weighted.
Weapons would be good to see but a lot to ask. Agree LI. SDC Just don't think they would bring him, but good enough IMO off 162. FL - I only rate around Chelt. QDLR - wouldn't back him off 140.
I was thinking more like Fists of Fury off 143. Last run he split SDC and Hidden Cyclone (wouldn't take it literally). Has been over here a few times and would give them an idea of where they stand plus feasibly weighted.Weapons would be good to se
I'm pretty sure they wouldn't bring SDC - only one day matters for him this season.
I take your point about FL. Mixing threads here, but I doubt he stays the Gold Cup trip. I wasn't interested in him as a potential Hennessey winner, but that race, over a similar trip to the CGC, albeit on a very different track, might give a clue.
Good point. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't bring SDC - only one day matters for him this season.I take your point about FL. Mixing threads here, but I doubt he stays the Gold Cup trip. I wasn't interested in him as a potential Hennessey winner, but th
FoF been off since January though so might not be fit. Might throw Carlito Brigante in, but not conviced with him over fences. Just can't believe they won't have a runner.
FoF been off since January though so might not be fit. Might throw Carlito Brigante in, but not conviced with him over fences. Just can't believe they won't have a runner.
I'd like to see on his own sent over, very impressive in the thyestes off 125 but had just got himself into the national and travelling easy when coming down off 148, he looked green in the thyestes and i'd be happy to take a chance on him getting the better part of a stone off bob's worth and co...having said that he'll probably be kept over hurdles until next april....exciting horse nevertheless.
I'd like to see on his own sent over, very impressive in the thyestes off 125 but had just got himself into the national and travelling easy when coming down off 148, he looked green in the thyestes and i'd be happy to take a chance on him getting th
Giggi also have Magnanimity, but he is winless for quite a while now, but could get rated in the high 130's?
Sunnyhillboy went up 10lbs for his National second and could be a possible runner, and is off 152; and I doubt they would run Quantitaveeasing because he looks better over a shorter distance.
Another possible runner from the National is Cappa Bleu, who I don't think stays extreme distances that he's been facing in the English and Welsh Nationals - he's off 147, but I think he'd need to be lowered a couple of lbs.
Its a shame Invictus is out injured, I would of loved him in this off 149.
Giggi also have Magnanimity, but he is winless for quite a while now, but could get rated in the high 130's?Sunnyhillboy went up 10lbs for his National second and could be a possible runner, and is off 152; and I doubt they would run Quantitaveeasing
Hidden Cyclone how far? i know sharky likes to spout off a bit as for example that star neuville was a superstar bumper horse and he would carry them up the hill. however he has rattled about hidden cyclone for a good 3 years and tbh i think he is a smashing horse.
Hidden Cyclone how far? i know sharky likes to spout off a bit as for example that star neuville was a superstar bumper horse and he would carry them up the hill. however he has rattled about hidden cyclone for a good 3 years and tbh i think he is a
Have asked Betfair to put an AP market up for this. I have listed horses mentioned on here, but please feel free to add others. For anyone who doesn't know it's the Top Thread on the Horse Ante Post Forum if you want to add.
Cheers
Have asked Betfair to put an AP market up for this. I have listed horses mentioned on here, but please feel free to add others. For anyone who doesn't know it's the Top Thread on the Horse Ante Post Forum if you want to add.Cheers
Only put on to this thread by shockster's post on AP runners.
Whilst he may lack the class of a typical Hennessy winner, I would be interested in Our Mick as a long shot. Continually improved last year and has experience of an open handicap even he'll only be a 2nd season chaser. Not sure from a stamina perspective that deep ground would help him though.
Only put on to this thread by shockster's post on AP runners.Whilst he may lack the class of a typical Hennessy winner, I would be interested in Our Mick as a long shot. Continually improved last year and has experience of an open handicap even he'll
I wouldn't be worried about the trip as I think Saturdays race will have brought him on. With race fitness assured I don't think he would have been caught. Not winning will help his chance as no penalty and rise in the weights.
I wouldn't be worried about the trip as I think Saturdays race will have brought him on. With race fitness assured I don't think he would have been caught. Not winning will help his chance as no penalty and rise in the weights.
Can't see Tidal running but maybe a Burton Port 166. I was hoping its a bad renewal with a topweight around 160 as I like a horse but he's too lowly rated to get in right now.
Can't see Tidal running but maybe a Burton Port 166. I was hoping its a bad renewal with a topweight around 160 as I like a horse but he's too lowly rated to get in right now.
Mccain said he doesn't like the Hennessy and as he has the National in mind for Weird Al can't think he will run. Also said he will run in the Charlie Hall I think.
Mccain said he doesn't like the Hennessy and as he has the National in mind for Weird Al can't think he will run. Also said he will run in the Charlie Hall I think.
Really fancy Helpston for the 3.40 at Fakenham tomorrow. Followed up by a serious crack at the Hennessy. Think this horse could be a real progressive sort this season.
Really fancy Helpston for the 3.40 at Fakenham tomorrow. Followed up by a serious crack at the Hennessy. Think this horse could be a real progressive sort this season.
shockster - sorry i know its after timing but really couldn't have Helpston at all today. Thought he is ridiculously badly handicapped and todays race was hot. Couldn't believe there was support for it. I was saying to a mate this morning I could see Helpston going off 14's as no one will want to touch it.
shockster - sorry i know its after timing but really couldn't have Helpston at all today. Thought he is ridiculously badly handicapped and todays race was hot. Couldn't believe there was support for it. I was saying to a mate this morning I could see
That's where we differ RG. I think he is well handicapped and I believe the weight of money today supports it. FWIW I got 9/1 last night, but for whatever reason he was beat after 4 fences today. Just can't believe this was his true running.
That's where we differ RG. I think he is well handicapped and I believe the weight of money today supports it. FWIW I got 9/1 last night, but for whatever reason he was beat after 4 fences today. Just can't believe this was his true running.
Obviously Diamond Harry has to come back from a poor season last year but is undeniably well handicapped getting a stone from Burton Port and likely to be better suited to the demands of this race. He was the only horse to go with Kauto Star in the early stages of last year's Betfair Chase (went off 7-2 against him and Long Run) and has been at his best in the early part of the season for 3 years plus flat left hand tracks and soft ground appear to be his optimium. The trainer's horses seem in good nick after today and Noel Fehily would be an ideal jockey. I love this horse and am sure he's got a race like this in him if he can be got right. Can't see any of last year's novices who look particularly well treated and a very open race there for the taking.
Obviously Diamond Harry has to come back from a poor season last year but is undeniably well handicapped getting a stone from Burton Port and likely to be better suited to the demands of this race. He was the only horse to go with Kauto Star in the e
Howdi, the message wasn't that last year's novices weren't strong but, just as with The Paddy Power, they all seem quite highly rated which means that I don't think they're very well treated. This might mean that like both races last year, there's room for a seemingly more exposed horse to win.
Howdi, the message wasn't that last year's novices weren't strong but, just as with The Paddy Power, they all seem quite highly rated which means that I don't think they're very well treated. This might mean that like both races last year, there's ro
Entries out on Tuesday (unless delayed for a day because of the Paddy Power entries or summit), then we can all take a serious look at the race (and/or congratulate Howdi on divining the winner weeks ago).
Entries out on Tuesday (unless delayed for a day because of the Paddy Power entries or summit), then we can all take a serious look at the race (and/or congratulate Howdi on divining the winner weeks ago).
They are up on the RP site (perhaps they shouldn't be there today...). You may need to search for a horse that's entered (clue - Burton Port) - then its entries, then the card.
They are up on the RP site (perhaps they shouldn't be there today...). You may need to search for a horse that's entered (clue - Burton Port) - then its entries, then the card.
Yeah, hope BP stays in to add a bit of quality as others at the top end are unlikely to run. Overall though it does fall short. Still it will be competitive as always and will be a great weekend.
Yeah, hope BP stays in to add a bit of quality as others at the top end are unlikely to run. Overall though it does fall short. Still it will be competitive as always and will be a great weekend.
Then BP will prob run to keep the weight down for Bobsworth. Tidal Bay is entered in the 3m Hurdle at Wetherby and surely can't win off 166 and top weight in this?
Then BP will prob run to keep the weight down for Bobsworth. Tidal Bay is entered in the 3m Hurdle at Wetherby and surely can't win off 166 and top weight in this?
He's got such a phenomenal record on soft I wouldn't write him off if that's the ground. What he did in the Whitbread was extraordinary in the conditions. That said, I reckon his targets for the season are the Welsh and Grand Nationals.
He's got such a phenomenal record on soft I wouldn't write him off if that's the ground. What he did in the Whitbread was extraordinary in the conditions. That said, I reckon his targets for the season are the Welsh and Grand Nationals.
I really like TB, but has been hammered for the Whitbread win and something has to be improving and well in. I backed him a couple of years back for the national and he came down, but would be good to see him go in. He's a character alright.
I really like TB, but has been hammered for the Whitbread win and something has to be improving and well in. I backed him a couple of years back for the national and he came down, but would be good to see him go in. He's a character alright.
Saver material for me if he runs and the ground's right.
Diamond Harry is interesitng off his mark if it's his reappearence race.
Others may follow once I've got my bets on
Saver material for me if he runs and the ground's right. Diamond Harry is interesitng off his mark if it's his reappearence race. Others may follow once I've got my bets on
Agree totally re DH. If he runs Sat though I doubt he'll run in this unless he comes down early. If he wins Sat, Handicap mark ruined and a bad run means prob won't run anyway.
At least we'll get a proper market now.
Agree totally re DH. If he runs Sat though I doubt he'll run in this unless he comes down early. If he wins Sat, Handicap mark ruined and a bad run means prob won't run anyway.At least we'll get a proper market now.
Seriously though Stront,hes always being talked up on here,but over jumps hes won one decent race,yes it was the Hennessey,fair enough,but he was getting best part of 2 stone from the only real decent horse in the race!! And how long ago was that??
Now hes either pulled up or finishes well down the field,yet still hes touted!!
Seriously though Stront,hes always being talked up on here,but over jumps hes won one decent race,yes it was the Hennessey,fair enough,but he was getting best part of 2 stone from the only real decent horse in the race!! And how long ago was that??No
Autumn, flat track, soft ground, first time out is when he's at his best though - I understand why people are keen on him for the Charlie Hall (which doesn't look a very strong race).
I'd consider backing him first time out in the Hennessey off 151 at a price.
His Hennessey win was pretty good - he beat the all time great Denman by a long way (getting lumps of weight) and beat the very decent Burton Port off levels.
The question for me is whether the injury he then sustained finished him off. I suspect it probably did, but I would be prepared to give him one more chance at the right price.
Autumn, flat track, soft ground, first time out is when he's at his best though - I understand why people are keen on him for the Charlie Hall (which doesn't look a very strong race). I'd consider backing him first time out in the Hennessey off 151 a
Yeh,i get the Autumn,Flat track,soft ground bit,and hes been good in the past with that. But last season?? Werent good mate,and i think hes told us hes had it. Hope im wrong though,and good luck if you back him.
Yeh,i get the Autumn,Flat track,soft ground bit,and hes been good in the past with that.But last season?? Werent good mate,and i think hes told us hes had it.Hope im wrong though,and good luck if you back him.
If he runs Saturday I will back him (price dependent). But like Stront will give Hennessy a wide berth if he runs at Wetherby. However, if he misses Sat and is running off 151 at Newbury having won off 156, I find it hard not to be interested.
If he runs Saturday I will back him (price dependent). But like Stront will give Hennessy a wide berth if he runs at Wetherby. However, if he misses Sat and is running off 151 at Newbury having won off 156, I find it hard not to be interested.
Yep,i guess the price might get one forgetting last seasons performance.Best be a big one though.
Yes hes off a better mark in the Hennessey,but his form last season really does not scream big race winner.
Still he may come back to his Hennessey form,never know.
Yep,i guess the price might get one forgetting last seasons performance.Best be a big one though.Yes hes off a better mark in the Hennessey,but his form last season really does not scream big race winner.Still he may come back to his Hennessey form,n
Diamond Harry not declared at Wetherby after suffering a minor setback [SHOCK!]. May go to Wincanton next week or straight to the Hennessey (or, presumably, neither as and when he has a couple more minor setbacks).
Diamond Harry not declared at Wetherby after suffering a minor setback [SHOCK!]. May go to Wincanton next week or straight to the Hennessey (or, presumably, neither as and when he has a couple more minor setbacks).
Has to be a bet on the day horse now-hes become unreliable,and even thats dodgy after last season!!
Still,the bookies should act accordingly and price him up sensibly.
Has to be a bet on the day horse now-hes become unreliable,and even thats dodgy after last season!!Still,the bookies should act accordingly and price him up sensibly.
Shakalakaboomboom for me if he runs. Nice weight of 10st 8 (a mark of 148), and travelled really smoothly for 95% of the National and just didn't get home.
I've got a feeling that between us, we'll put up about 15 different selections
Shakalakaboomboom for me if he runs. Nice weight of 10st 8 (a mark of 148), and travelled really smoothly for 95% of the National and just didn't get home.I've got a feeling that between us, we'll put up about 15 different selections
strontium 31 Oct 12 16:33 Joined: 21 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 3,216 | Blogger: strontium's blog Saver material for me if he runs and the ground's right.
Diamond Harry is interesitng off his mark if it's his reappearence race.
Others may follow once I've got my bets on
I'll crack the jokes....the horse is a corpse
another brilliant thread on betfair full of insight and a real look at the hennessy cognac gold cup....just great can't wait to post...a 4 page thread full of daily sport comments just fantastic.... do not know where to start..... we can all learn from this, that is for sure...lol...lets start with alfie spinner a non runner?? or even teeforthree also a non runner or weird al...am confused cause its so interesting....
I can see why if you post comments everyday you can get up to 3000 replies/comments worthless....thats my goal..really want to get there....just want to be in the gang
any ideas on worthless comments to build my replies?????????brilliant just want to be up there on the score sheets...
if you get there you are respected right???
how do I go about doing it???
love to be in the daily sport gang thats all...
cracks me up a forum with no insight...4 pages of dross
can't wait to read howdis next thread...
let me guess...paul jones insight into the hennessy or graham cunninghams last poo and how he left skids on the pan...i wait with bated breath...
Replies: 142strontiumstrontium31 Oct 12 16:33Joined:21 Sep 05| Topic/replies: 3,216 | Blogger: strontium's blogSaver material for me if he runs and the ground's right.Diamond Harry is interesitng off his mark if it's his reappearence race.Others may
For anyone who likes these kind of field narrowing statistical angles,
10 out of 10 winners had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences. 9 out of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases. 9 out of 10 winners had won over 3m1f+. 9 out of 10 winners had finished in the first two on their last completed start. 8 out of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase. 8 out of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts. 7 out of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences. 7 out of 10 winners were second season chasers. 7 out of 10 winners were Irish bred with two being British and one French. Running Style 9 of the last 10 winners, including the last 7, raced with the leaders throughout. Trainers Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners and 6 placed horses in the past 8 years from 22 runners. Price 7 of the last 8 winners were sent off at 10/1 or shorter. 6 of the last 8 winners have been in the first 3 in the betting. Conclusion Based on the last 10 years the following trends are worth bearing in mind: A horse aged 6 or 7 A horse with an official rating between 150 and 158 A horse carrying 11-0+ but not necessarily relevant this year A horse that had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences at 3m1f+ A horse that had run 3 to 6 times over fences, winning at least half A horse that had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases A horse that had finished in the first two last time out A horse that was bred in Ireland A horse that races prominently and is 10/1 or shorter
For anyone who likes these kind of field narrowing statistical angles, 10 out of 10 winners had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences.9 out of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases.9 out of 10 winners had won over 3m1f+.9 out of 10 w