Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
In many people's eyes, First Lieutenant will be running in next year's Gold Cup if he retains his ability from the previous two seasons and stays injury free. However, I have a different line of thought....
Gigginstown currently have five horses in the Gold Cup antepost betting:
1. Sir des Champs 6/1
2. First Lieutenant 16/1
3. Last Instalment 20/1
4. Weapon's Amnesty 33/1
5. Quito de la Roque 50/1
Willie Mullins has asserted that Sir des Champs will be campaigned over 3m next year as his main Gold Cup contender and the very least Quito de la Roque needs these days is 3m. I expect Quito de la Roque to be running in the Irish / English Grand Nationals in years to come!
Weapon's Amnesty was an out and out three miler winning the Albert Bartlett and RSA when fit. After his injuries, it is highly unlikely he would have the speed to drop down to the Ryanair distance. Last Instalment should be back racing around Christmas time according to Philip Fenton and the way he won the Fort Leney last year suggested that 3m is undoubtedly his optimum trip. That leaves FL as the only Gigginstown horse who could feasibly drop down in trip to contest the Ryanair.
You may think, why would they drop a Gold Cup contender drop down in trip for the less prestigious option of the Ryanair? Well, this is the O'Learys we are talking about. The Ryanair is the race they sponsor and the O'Learys have consistently said how desperate they are to win their race.
It is incredibly difficult to summarise First Lieutenant's first season over fences after the puzzling campaign Mouse Morris conjured up. He ran over four different trips ranging from 2m 0f to 3m 1f and ran on all ground from "good" to "heavy" over the course of his seven month season. His seven chase runs included four Grade 1s and two other graded contests. With such an inconsistent profile to his novice chase campaign, to come out with form figures of 121P223 was still highly commendable in my view.
Having reviewed his RSA run behind Bobs Worth, it is noticeable how free he ran towards the front under Davy Russell. Essentially, he was just outstayed by a stronger stayer which is so often the case in RSAs. He jumped impeccably and never missed a beat over the Prestbury undulations. His Festival form figures of 12 are those of a top class horse and his Neptune Novices Hurdle win edging out Rock on Ruby looks even better after Rock on Ruby's facile win in this past year's Champion Hurdle.
The Ryanair tends to run like a 2m 6f / 2m 7f race. You only have to look at recent Ryanair winners who all also have Grade 1 form over 3m. Our Vic, Imperial Commander, Albertas Run and Riverside Theatre were all more so 3m horses than 2m horses and First Lieutenant fits this profile.
All I hope now is that Gigginstown and Mouse Morris can see that this horse is crying out for a stiff 2m 4f / 2m 5f and the Ryanair on good ground will suit him down to a tee. The Ryanair is often a perilous ante-post market to get involved with at an early stage, but I think an investment in First Lieutenant is more promising than simply speculative. I have invested 1pt at average odds of 21.19 on here and had 0.5pt e/w at 14/1 with Sid James.
First Lieutenant starts over 2m 4f at Gowran Park tomorrow and is a nice price at 9/2. However, it is impossible to know how fit he is in comparison to his other rivals and the ground looks to be ok at Gowran. Regardless, it is encouraging to see him starting at this trip and hopefully Mouse will keep him at the trip for the rest of the season culminating in glory at Prestbury Park on Thursday 14th March.
Gigginstown currently have five horses in the Gold Cup antepost betting:
1. Sir des Champs 6/1
2. First Lieutenant 16/1
3. Last Instalment 20/1
4. Weapon's Amnesty 33/1
5. Quito de la Roque 50/1
Willie Mullins has asserted that Sir des Champs will be campaigned over 3m next year as his main Gold Cup contender and the very least Quito de la Roque needs these days is 3m. I expect Quito de la Roque to be running in the Irish / English Grand Nationals in years to come!
Weapon's Amnesty was an out and out three miler winning the Albert Bartlett and RSA when fit. After his injuries, it is highly unlikely he would have the speed to drop down to the Ryanair distance. Last Instalment should be back racing around Christmas time according to Philip Fenton and the way he won the Fort Leney last year suggested that 3m is undoubtedly his optimum trip. That leaves FL as the only Gigginstown horse who could feasibly drop down in trip to contest the Ryanair.
You may think, why would they drop a Gold Cup contender drop down in trip for the less prestigious option of the Ryanair? Well, this is the O'Learys we are talking about. The Ryanair is the race they sponsor and the O'Learys have consistently said how desperate they are to win their race.
It is incredibly difficult to summarise First Lieutenant's first season over fences after the puzzling campaign Mouse Morris conjured up. He ran over four different trips ranging from 2m 0f to 3m 1f and ran on all ground from "good" to "heavy" over the course of his seven month season. His seven chase runs included four Grade 1s and two other graded contests. With such an inconsistent profile to his novice chase campaign, to come out with form figures of 121P223 was still highly commendable in my view.
Having reviewed his RSA run behind Bobs Worth, it is noticeable how free he ran towards the front under Davy Russell. Essentially, he was just outstayed by a stronger stayer which is so often the case in RSAs. He jumped impeccably and never missed a beat over the Prestbury undulations. His Festival form figures of 12 are those of a top class horse and his Neptune Novices Hurdle win edging out Rock on Ruby looks even better after Rock on Ruby's facile win in this past year's Champion Hurdle.
The Ryanair tends to run like a 2m 6f / 2m 7f race. You only have to look at recent Ryanair winners who all also have Grade 1 form over 3m. Our Vic, Imperial Commander, Albertas Run and Riverside Theatre were all more so 3m horses than 2m horses and First Lieutenant fits this profile.
All I hope now is that Gigginstown and Mouse Morris can see that this horse is crying out for a stiff 2m 4f / 2m 5f and the Ryanair on good ground will suit him down to a tee. The Ryanair is often a perilous ante-post market to get involved with at an early stage, but I think an investment in First Lieutenant is more promising than simply speculative. I have invested 1pt at average odds of 21.19 on here and had 0.5pt e/w at 14/1 with Sid James.
First Lieutenant starts over 2m 4f at Gowran Park tomorrow and is a nice price at 9/2. However, it is impossible to know how fit he is in comparison to his other rivals and the ground looks to be ok at Gowran. Regardless, it is encouraging to see him starting at this trip and hopefully Mouse will keep him at the trip for the rest of the season culminating in glory at Prestbury Park on Thursday 14th March.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 27
|
By:
I think you've set out the case very well and it's perfectly reasonable. I've thought for a while this one will go for the Ryanair for many of the reaasons you give (though we've discussed it on here with some sharp differences in opinion with some saying he's an out and out 3+ miler). It may be worth adding that Gigginstown have a big say in where their horses run - i.e. what they want trumps the trainer. With so many classy staying chasers I imagine they will pick at least one for their race.
On the other hand, Last Instalment and Weapons Amnesty both have big injuries to come back from and may not make it - which could have a knock on effect on FL. |
|
By:
Indeed, he could end up in the Ryan Air. I'd be a little surprised though, as trainer has already nominated the Gold Cup as his target, he wants to win it again. I'm firmly in the camp that FL is a 3miler.
I have backed this horse for the past two festivals, but never at the start of the season. Mouse trains him to peak at the festival, so his form leading up to Cheltenham means his price can fluctuate, especially last season. |
|
By:
Better hope he was a long way off fit today
 Adding to the above, I imagine QDLR will only run a Cheltenham if it's bog-like. If it is, Bog Warrior then also comes in the reckoning for the Ryanair. |
|
By:
Still firmly believe FL will be the Gold Cup winner
|
|
By:
^^^ blimey bluebird brave after that performance but good luck
|
|
By:
FL is a completely different horse around Cheltenham and needs to be considered in that way IMO. LY was pretty poor until the festival. Not top of my list, but couldn't dismiss.
|
|
By:
Shockster, I think that's fair.
But even for a "completely different" horse getting beaten by a 124 rated horse has to be a worry when we're talking about him as a contender for the premier chase of the entire season. |
|
By:
Sizing and Forpady weren't that far in front though. Early season chase and all can be given benefit of doubt.
|
|
By:
Perhaps. Another way to look at FL is gently regressive. Another is that he was possibly bottomed by the RSA as so many horses are. Or it could just have been a poor early season race which he badly needed. Time will tell!
|
|
By:
He is a 'completely different horse around Cheltenham' and that's why there is absolutely no point in backing him ante post for any race this year. He will most probably be a bigger price maybe not on the day but late Febuary after some sub standard performances in Ireland.
|
|
By:
Didnt like his run at all but history tells us not to give up on a horse after one early season run at a shorter trip................but Im not too excited with this horses chances in the big races.Not forme and for that reason Im out.
|
|
By:
I was disappointed with his comeback run tbh. He jumped OK but doesn't look to have improved in that respect which is what you would hope for in a horses second season.
I think his next run will tell us, possibly definately, as to whether he is regressing or not. Jury still out for me. |
|
By:
He's entered in the JN Wine Chase at Down Royal which looks like a reasonable field, especially if Nicholls send over one or two of his entries.
|
|
By:
2 Festival appearances and a first and a second...thats all I need to know ;-)
|
|
By:
He is going to be one of those horses year in year out that everyone will have given up on come the festival only to see a massively improved performance around there, last year for starters his whole prep seemed to be one big underwhelming jumble and then e almost goes and wins the rsa, mark my words come february pricewise will be sticking him up at a decent big price for whatever he's targeted at.
|
|
By:
In fairess, before he won the Neptune, he had won his last start which was at Grade 1 level. His hurdles form is a notch above his chase form.
|
|
By:
Even though his hurdles rating is 146, and his chase rating is 157.
  |
|
By:
World Hurdle then
|
|
By:
Wouldn't stay
 |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Definitely being aimed for the Gold Cup based on trainers comments yesterday.
|
|
By:
What were the comments Sint? Never saw them, cheers.
|
|
By:
Said he thought he was staying on at end of Down Royal, will be aimed for the Lexus, considered the Hennessy GC which is 26.5f.
|
|
By:
cheers
|
|
By:
Clearly outstayed at the business end yesterday - let's hope connections now aim him at the Ryanair!
He would have a massive chance as set out in this article and his jumping has massively improved this year after his first run. His leap 3 out at Newbury yesterday was pretty special! |
|
By:
Based on yesterday you would think the Giggy crew would now realise this one cant beat Bobs Worth over 3m+ and as you say aim him for Ryanair. Barry had him firmly under his control yesterday and went past exactly as and when he wanted. Sir Des Champs is the Giggy Gold Cup horse.
|
|
By:
Hopefully Sir des Champs' win in the Irish Henn and the recent money for First Lieutenant in the Ryanair market suggest he could be a Ryanair runner.
Massive, massive player if turning up as will get every yard of the tough Ryanair trip at Cheltenham. Still think it is very 50 / 50, but please run him in the Ryanair Mr O'Leary! |