Cheltenham Festival
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considering some ante post doubles for these races : Hurricane fly .cinders and ashes ..rock on ruby .spirit son and granduet for champion hurdle and sir des champs .bobsworth.flemenster.first lit and grand crus in gold cup are the 5 I fancy in each race but really want to cut it down to a managable 2/3 ..Any advice?
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Easy to look at a few pros and cons:
Hurricane Fly - excellent on his day but no obvious excuses this year. Will be 9 next season. Very rare for a horse to regain the Champion. Cinders and Ashes - won the Supreme in a blanket finish. Supreme winners have a poor record in the Champion lately. Good enough? Rock on Ruby - the Champion. Won on merit as a fairly inexperienced horse. Was it a good renewal? Now out of the Nicholls yard officially. Sprit Son - huge hype horse. Not actually done much on the racecourse. Injured for a long time. Highly regarded in his top yard. Grandouet - Good course form this year (especially with Overturn). Apparently a minor injury this season but injured nonetheless. At this stage I'd go for Grandouet and Rock on Ruby. Sir des Champs - double festival winner. Looked outstanding in the Jewson. Hugely respected. With the master trainer. Yet to properly prove he stays. The one to beat at this point. Bobs Worth - tough, will stay, loves the course. Place banker. Classy enough to win? RSA winners have a poor record in the following season. Flemenstar - could be anything but looks superb. Yet to prove he stays the trip. Possibly the best of a good crop of novices. First Luitenant - Good form lines with eg Last Instalment. Looks classy. Nasty injury - could be risky. Grands Crus - non-stayer? Very poor, unexplained run in the RSA. Looked good in the Feltham which has strong form. Is he good enough? Sir des Champs and Flemenstar for me but it potentially looks a strong renewal and Grands Crus would be the only one I'd be against. |
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Sorry, my comments about First Luitenant above were actually about Last Instalment. I continually get those two mixed up and it irritaes me.
First Lieutenant - looks a non-stayer. No obvious excuse in the RSA, no reason to think he'll reverse with Bobs Worth. Could end up in the Ryanair givben his owners have so many staying chasers? Personally, I wouldn't rule out Long Run, Giant Bolster or Riverside Theatre yet in addition to Sir des C, Bobs W, Last Instalment and Flemenstar. |
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Very good, detailed points from strontium as usual.
That said, I disagree a little. I would put forward Rock On Ruby for sure, but find it hard between the rest of them. My gut instinct tells me Grandouet isn't good enough and will be found out in a fast-run championship race at Cheltenham, but there are plenty of negatives against the others. I do like Spirit Son, but agree that he is a hype horse on the bare level of what he has achieved. I might prefer to chance a lower portion of my stakes on him and go heavier on Rock On Ruby. Just a feeling he is probably very good and might well have benefited from taking the whole season off last term (impression I get is that he wasn't badly injured but they were taking no risks once effective preps for the big spring races had come and gone). Gold Cup, I agree about Sir Des Champs. Thoroughly impressive in a good Jewson but I think he's short enough now and wouldn't go too heavy on him, Love, love, love, Flemenstar but don't think he wants to go that far. I think the major over-reactions in the market have been with Long Run and Grands Crus and I'd go heaviest on those two. We all live and die by our opinions in this game and I have a strong one on the latter. I am personally happy enough (at 20s or thereabouts) to simply write off the RSA run for GC. Truth is, I don't know what happened. He was bitterly disappointing. But he's never disappointed me before and he was beaten way too far out for it to have been a stamina issue. I have a lot of faith in him still, was pleased to see him put away after Cheltenham, and am one of the few people on here who is very confident he will stay the trip just fine. The going on the Friday will always have the potential to be a little bit quicker than would be ideal for him, but I am very confident he has the class to win at the very highest level and expect him to have a very good second season over fences. On a not dissimilar train of thought, Long Run looks too big to me. This is based on a lesson that I believe many people never learned. Of course, I could have got this completely wrong but I don't think so  . When Kauto Star, one of the greatest horses we have ever seen, got beaten by Denman, most people were proclaiming his reign to be over. But he came back bigger and better, and continued to dominate for years afterwards. Many people forget that he had a very hard race at Ascot and picked up a niggling injury just weeks before that defeat, and it may well have been that he needed time to make a full recovery before bouncing back to his best the following season. I was at Haydock when Kauto beat Long Run last year, and my immediate reaction was that Long Run had a gutbustingly hard race for his return to action. I am far from convinced that he fully got over that last term, and yet he still nearly won a King George without getting a great ride and at a track that didn't suit, he then won at Newbury and was only beaten a handful of lengths in the Gold Cup. It was a disappointing season by his standards but he is only seven still, and sets a very high standard to pass. I suspect the team will avoid Haydock for his return this year and give him an easier re-introduction. If they do that, I think he will return to a level of form similar to the previous season and that will make him a leading player to regain his Gold Cup crown. |
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anyone who lands the double wants a medal my opionion for what its worth:
Bobs Worth - Loves Cheltenham Spirit Son - Aintree form worked out very well. |
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ps I'd agree with the point on Long Run I wouldn't want to lay him.
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These two races are looking very tricky, and I suspect it will still be wide open looking after Christmas. If I had £20 to spend on doubles, I'd go for:
Spirit Son and Long Run - 142/1 £10 win. The "Henderson Double" because we know how well he gets them ready for Cheltenham. Both have to prove they are as good as they were 2 years ago, but I think they can be. Agree re Spirit Son that his reputation is bigger than what he has done on the track, but I was so impressed with his Aintree run. I've learnt not to take Aintree form to literally, but the way he trounced a quality field makes me think we haven't seen the best of him yet. Long Run looks a very big price at 10/1, and he now looks like the old boy, he is the same age as most of his rivals. I think they will run him in the Betfair, but I think they will go straight to Cheltenham after the King George, so will be a fresh horse. Spirit Son and Last Instalment - 285/1 £5 win This is the "have they retained their ability after being injured" double. Spirit Son, as above, and I was really impressed with Last Instalment last year. I think he has kind of slipped under the radar for most people, with SDS and Flemenstar taking the headlines in Ireland, but I thought he was Ireland's outstanding novice chaser last year. He won on heavy, soft, good to soft and good; and has excellent form lines. Hurricane Fly and Long Run - 72/1 £4 win The "Can they Retain their Crown" double. I still believe that if the Fly can have a clean season, and for the ground to come up on the soft side at Cheltenham, he will take all the beating. I accept the age, retain their crown argument, but I think on his day he is the best horse in the race. Cotton Mill and Al Ferof - 1156/1 £1 win The "You Can Always Dream" double  |
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If we're talking about horses coming back from injury with the potential to win, has anyone heard anything about Weapons Amnesty? A horse I would be loathe to leave out of the calculations....
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Grandouet/ROR and SDC double if pressed,not much to add to the excellent reasoning above
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Can see a big price winner of the CH this year....could Grumeti do a Katchit?
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Rather early!! Good fun looking forward though.
Anyway fwiw at this stage ROR would be my horse for the CH,with Binocular as an interesting outsider,given how unlucky he was this year with his ride and hitting the last. Gold cup i would have Bobsworth and Last Instalment as my early choices. |
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the champ hurdle very hard to **** at the moment what with horses coming back from slight setbacks and uncertainty over who will go nov chasing ,and possible something may come out of the woodwork in the early handicap hurdles ! at the moment too difficult for me !
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a s s es ^ ffs
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Hello everyone , love reading your debates and reasoning's for your well educated responses.Thought i would give it a go so here goes.
Champion - Granduoet 12/1 really like this fellow and possesses great turn of foot which is lethal.He would of gone close last season using overturn as yardstick. Danger - Hurricane Fly Gold Cup - Fleminstar 12/1 like afew on here, i believe he is the best irish chaser (including Sir Des Champs who i think is more a doubtful stayer than this horse) and prepared to take chance he gets the trip.jumps like a stag and reminds me of imperial call few years ago so fingers crossed. Danger - Bobs Worth |
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welcolm to the chelt forum voice , a lot of decent posters on here and hardly any of the madness associated with some of the other forums ,you can put up a veiw on here and it will be disscussed sensibly .
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Yes, welcome Voice. It does turn in to a bear pit here about 10 days before the Festival...
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thank you for the replies and the debate i am finding it extremely useful.. as i said when i started i am interested in placing some doubles on these two races ante post ..i have decided on at the moment on grandueot and rock on ruby with Bobsworth sir des And flemenster..6 separate doubles small investments but with reasonable return .Only 31 weeks to go!
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sir des is bloody short on what he has achived to date 6-1 jesus. not bad anything yet.
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I'd have to say the same about Flemenstar at the moment Howdi.
He does seem to have enormous potential and can still progress this year, but I struggle to see what he's actually achieved to warrant being 8/1 - 12/1 for a Gold Cup. Not knocking him at all, but compared to a King George and Gold Cup winner in Long Run, at the same price I'd take Long Run each time. If they went straight to the Gold Cup after the King George with Long Run, I still think he is the one to beat. |
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Gold Cup runner up is a big price compared to novices and 4 times the price of Long Run,who imo was beaten by TGB fair and square.
Some horses just aint fashionable,just the way i like it. |
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Budd, I agree he could well be a spot of value.
Well, I think it's the style with which he does it. He's also unbeaten since his forst chase when he got beaten by a decent one and the Gold Cup is his announced target. The price looks about right to me. Re Long run, yes, he's done it before, but he has a lot of questions to answer after last season. He might be another Kauto and come out and blow them all away again, but he might be on the downslope as a heavily raced horse. The Gold Cup is won most of the time by lightly raced, progressive horses, frequently 2nd season chasers. |
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Fair points about TGB; he could well be one that is actually as good as he looked in March, and, if so, the price discrepancy is wrong. I suppose the question is whether he can improve again, as the bare level of form of last year's Gold Cup might well be below what is required this year.
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He does look to be improving after they sorted out his jumping. Also to be one of those Cheltenham horses. But as with any of them, it's a guest if he peaked in March.
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For anybody who likes TGB then you should surely look at Burton Port at the price. If he has a full season uninterupted by injury then he has at least an equal chance as TGB. Finished 10l in front at Newbury and 6l behind in The Gold Cup. IMO I believe the 2013 Gold Cup winner didn't run in LY race. Roll on October/November and it will start to take shape.
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That could reflect track preference - TGB seems a different horse at Cheltenham, Burton Port seems to like a flat track (Newbury, Aintree). BP may have bounced after his long lay off and good run at Newbury. He's a horse I adore, but I couldn't be confident he's a gold cup contender.
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Agree Stront, he's not for me now, but I believe he has an equal chance to TGB. That's my point.
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Think thats a very good point as regards the preference of track with TGB and BP.
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Regards all. Have spent a lot of time reading your views and stealing your thinking and have finally decided to attempt to contribute.
Gold Cup - Long Run. My thinking. Won GC as a 6 Y-O and looked a world beater. Last season something wasnt right and I am sure Nicky Henderson will have worked out it was his schedule. Betfair, King George VI, Denman Chase and Gold Cup was one race too many. Expect next year schedule to be Betfair, KGVI and then straight to Gold Cup. Still only 8 Y-O and proven course and distance. Class act. How is he 10/1. I am on and on big. Champion Hurdle - Grandouet. Always felt this horse was a real star. Easy running style and great galloper. Perfect age next year as a 6 Y-O. If he can stay fit he has a great chance. Left Overturn standing at Cheltenham in December before Overturn was runner up in Champion Hurdle this year. Good record at Cheltenham. 2013 is his year and at 14/1 with Stan James. Again, have lumped on. Just the two AP bets so far. Still happy with them which makes a change for me ! |
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First lieutenant and Zarkander 4 me, FL just a beautiful horse who will be only filling his frame as a 8/9 yr old, hope he doesnt send Z over fences, obv struggled to have him right last season, the way he flew up the hill with another year on his back who knows.
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Interesting reads for what mine is worth. 2 £10 doubles below.
Sir Des Champs 6-1 & Simonsig 10-1 ( yeah he could go chasing but willing to risk a tenner if not ) Long Run 9-1 & Hurricane Fly 6-1 2011 winners to return you never know. Good Luck all.... |
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hurricane fly a huge lay for me and no doubt he will trade shorter as he wins a few in ireland.
They rarely reclaim the title. |
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I agree Howdi. Only ever been done once hasn't it?
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Same applies really to all the Championship races.
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I think you writemoff long run at your peril, such a class horse and now the right age.
A bit leftfield i know but hows about a darlan/hunt ball ew double I think darlan is open to improvement still and forgive hunt ball the aintree run. Hunt ball has course form and his rating is on the up (synchronised was a similar rating this time last year). In terms of others Binocular - i've followed him off enough cliffs now so give up Spirit son - see how season progresses Hurr fly - like long un has the class so ouldn't write off but way too short to back Grandouet - big danger Countrywide flame - at 50's on betfair looks a big price Gold cup Long run - class act who will win on his day My feeling with the gold cup this year was that it was weak, the giant bolster pacing shows that imo. He hasn't shown anything other han the handicap win, is he a course specialist? I think the main danger is last seasons novices in bobs worth and grand crus. Invictus may be worth a watch too as an outside chance. Do think bobs worth loves cheltenham. I'm all excited now, roll on the jumps |
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I think you writemoff long run at your peril, such a class horse and now the right age.
A bit leftfield i know but hows about a darlan/hunt ball ew double I think darlan is open to improvement still and forgive hunt ball the aintree run. Hunt ball has course form and his rating is on the up (synchronised was a similar rating this time last year). In terms of others Binocular - i've followed him off enough cliffs now so give up Spirit son - see how season progresses Hurr fly - like long un has the class so ouldn't write off but way too short to back Grandouet - big danger Countrywide flame - at 50's on betfair looks a big price Gold cup Long run - class act who will win on his day My feeling with the gold cup this year was that it was weak, the giant bolster pacing shows that imo. He hasn't shown anything other han the handicap win, is he a course specialist? I think the main danger is last seasons novices in bobs worth and grand crus. Invictus may be worth a watch too as an outside chance. Do think bobs worth loves cheltenham. I'm all excited now, roll on the jumps |
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Long Run was beaten fair and square in that weak Gold Cup as you put it.
Whether it were weak or not the fact remains that TGB beat Long Run and is a lot bigger price.He loves the track and has to be woth an interest at his price Grand Crus?? Lot better options at this stage than him and looks a non stayer to me.Invictus i agree is worth an interest,Bobsworth is an obvious threat and is another that seems to like Cheltenham,and is a solid stayer. |
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ch. hurdle will be difficult enough on the day i imagine ....gold cup ; worse 33/1 shots around than hunt ball . don't laugh . he may even have more improvement in him when they , presumably, campaign him differently and more sparingly .
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Hunt Ball will have to improve to figure in a Gold Cup - at least another stone, possibly 1 1/2 st if the novices from last year are as good as they look.
As for Long Run, it always surprises me that people only focus on his age as if that's the only thing that matters. He's very heavily raced and he's by a sire whose progeny age badly. We don't know which is the most important factor and he may bounce back, but he certainly didn't look as good last year as in the year before. I agree with Budd, he didn't look to have any excuses in the last Gold Cup. |