Last Instalment

I'm keen on this one too - is there any news on his recovery from injury?

I'm not convinced he is the best Irish noivce - Flemenstar and Sir des Champs both look top drawer and SDC has outstanding Cheltenham form. Timeform have SDC and F 7 lbs ahead on their ratings - but LI could well be better value at this point.

yes he has very progressive profile and looks a decent horse definatly in the mix  and a decent price to boot just the injury worry puts a slight doubt but if all is well then a nice bet to look forward to in the coming months ,regarding the injury has anyone looked on the trainers website ? may be news on there .good luck with it .

It's minor.

Absolutely but the injury (which is definitely nothing to worry about) is priced in.

If you could be certain that the injury was not a long term issue you its a big price. I came unstuck with Weapons Amnesty at 50 plus in a year where on paper the race was far better. I think even if he misses the GC next year this fellow is proper top class. The biggest bonus is that Davy Russel will ride it if it goes to the GC (Sir Des Chams is a Ryanair horse IMO) so you don't get wide boy O'Connel.

I'd say the ground will always be an issue with Last Instalment, he will be hard to beat in the Leopardstown races on soft or heavy ground but I'd be doubtful will he be venturing abroad in March

He's run in, and won, a G1 on officially good ground. In any case, don't Giggins pretty much tell their trainers where their horses will run, more so at least than is the case for "normal" owners? Plus, who knows what the ground will actually be in March? It's July now and it would be soft or slower if they ran today.

I don't think the ground is an issue - the horse has a fairly neutral action and plenty of speed. Has won on good ground. A bigger issue is the amount of quality that Gigginstown have meaning there could be clashes and avoidance of clashes. I firmly believe that this horse will be established as number 1 in the pecking order by March.

Bluebird, I think there are a number of factors. FL was well beaten by Bobsworth with no apparent excuses in the RSA, and BW doesn't appear to be all that good (tough rather than classy). FL didn't appear to see out the trip in the RSA so may struggle with 2 f more in a Gold Cup. Gigginstown have a lot of options for the Gold Cup (especially First Luiet and Sir des Champs but possibly Quito de la Roque if it's a bog and Weapons Amnesty if he recovers). They may also want to have a good stab at the Ryanair since they sponsor the race but have never won it.

interesting i thought the horse had tendon trouble in both legs...got to be a long shot if the animal can return to his best and continue to progress...he did look a tool on soft...weaker irish races could be his for the taking on winter ground but you would have to see him race to consider putting a sheckle on him for cheltenham with the injuries he has had..

if he does return has to be a major doubt to run at cheltenham on better ground especially after jarring himself on it at leopardstown...good horse he looks although a risky betting opportunity all the same.

I really hope that FL goes for the Gold Cup, I've been following him since his first run over hurdles. All this Ryanair talk is putting me off investing again though

If you watch race again, Sun Alliance FL runs too free with some cover think he can reverse places. I like and backed Bobs Worth in same race not sure if he will even be stable no 1 or 2?

Thanks Stevo, I should take another look at the RSA. I did wonder at the time if FL would have benefitted from a race before the RSA (for fitness). I know trainer can get them ready but it seems to make a bigger difference with novices and maybe if he ran free he might have settled better off a recent run.

BobsW may be the stable no. 4 or 5 with Long Run, Riverside Theatre, Finian's Rainbow and Burton Port around - but even so he's bound to run in the Gold Cup because Cheltenham suits him down to the ground and he's got such good Festival form. I also think the extra 2 f will suit him. All that said, I won't be rushing to back him for the Gold Cup as I think he'll be beaten by something classier. On the other hand, I think Gigginstown have at least two better staying chasers than FL.

I agree about the price of SDC but he's also the one to beat at the moment imo. Wonderful Cheltenham/Festival form and with a great trainer - but your're right, on the book he does need to step up a level.

Saying BobsWorth might be Hendo's number 3/4/5 - I don't think that's really the case - realistically he's probably #1 or #2 behind Long Run - but it might appear to be. He looks one of those horses who is much better at Cheltenham than anywhere else, so his form may not look great if he gets beaten at Haydock/Newbury/Ascot etc before the Festival.

If Last Instalment recovers,i can see him being a major Gold Cup player.
He was a better horse than FL last season and is a proven stayer.
SDC and Flemenstar both have to prove the distance will be ok for them.
At current prices i would be looking at LI as the one for any bets this early.
The others make no appeal to me at their current odds.

You're right, not sure if I confused him with Bog Warrior. Not because Bog warrior is comparable, but because at the end of last season there seemed to be any number of Gigginstown horses being lined up for this years GC. There certainly seemed to be more than I've listed anyway.

I'd add it's possible Gigginstown might make a serious challenge for the Ryaniar this year with one or two of them (given such a wealth of talent). They effectively sponsor it but they've never won it.

Out for the season again

bad luck li backers ,happens to us all wellchief ive had 3-4 nonners for the festival so far and will probably suffer a few more yet, this one reminds me of weapons amnesty, very similar !